Between two superpowers: Indonesia’s position in the US-China rivalry

South China Morning Post

25 Jul 202209:09

Summary

TLDRIndonesia's diplomatic strategy has long focused on maintaining neutrality amidst rising tensions between superpowers like China and the United States. As a leader in Southeast Asia, Indonesia aims to balance its relationships with both nations, engaging in free diplomacy and investment while mediating conflicts, such as in Ukraine and Iran. Despite significant Chinese investment, recent polls show that Indonesians favor neutrality if conflict arises between the U.S. and China. As geopolitical pressures mount, Indonesia continues to uphold its stance as a bridge between rivals, emphasizing its commitment to friendly relations without taking sides.

Takeaways

🌍 Indonesia has pursued a policy of neutrality in international relations, positioning itself as a bridge between rival superpowers like the United States and China.
🤝 Since gaining independence in 1945, Indonesia has engaged in free and active diplomacy, seeking to have 'a million friends and zero enemies.'
🇮🇩 As a founding member of ASEAN and the only Southeast Asian country in the G20, Indonesia plays a crucial leadership role in Southeast Asia.
🚆 China's investment in Indonesian infrastructure, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative, totals approximately $7.9 billion, with projects like the delayed Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail line.
🛡️ The United States has invested around $20 billion in Indonesia, focusing on military and defense ties, including joint military exercises and counter-terrorism efforts.
🌊 Tensions in the South China Sea pose significant challenges for Indonesia, as it navigates its relationship with both China and the U.S.
🔍 A 2022 poll revealed that 60% of Indonesians feel the country should limit China's influence, yet 84% prefer neutrality in the event of a U.S.-China conflict.
📉 Recent deteriorating relations between the U.S. and China have influenced public opinion in Indonesia, increasing distrust toward both powers.
⚖️ Indonesia's balancing act is tested by aggressive posturing from both China and the U.S., as it seeks to maintain its neutral stance.
🔗 Experts predict that if tensions escalate, Indonesia may lean more towards the United States, viewing it as a less threatening partner compared to China.

Q & A

What is Indonesia's approach to its foreign relations?
-Indonesia aims to maintain a neutral stance, promoting a strategy of 'friends to all, enemies to none' through free and active diplomacy.
How has Indonesia positioned itself amid the growing tensions between China and the United States?
-Indonesia has managed to stay neutral while balancing its relationships with both China and the US, acting as a mediator in various international disputes.
What is the significance of Indonesia's membership in ASEAN and the G20?
-As a founding member of ASEAN and the only Southeast Asian country in the G20, Indonesia plays a leading role in regional cooperation and global economic discussions.
What major infrastructure project is mentioned in the context of China's investment in Indonesia?
-The Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail line, part of China's Belt and Road Initiative, is a key infrastructure project that reflects China's significant investment in Indonesia.
How does the US approach its relationship with Indonesia compared to China?
-The US focuses on increasing defense ties and military cooperation with Indonesia, while China emphasizes economic investments to strengthen its influence.
What challenges does Indonesia face in maintaining its neutrality?
-Indonesia faces pressure from both China and the US, especially with rising military tensions and differing visions regarding trade and security in the region.
What does a recent poll indicate about Indonesian public opinion regarding China and the US?
-The poll revealed that while a majority of Indonesians believe the country should limit China's influence, most prefer to remain neutral if a conflict between the US and China were to arise.
What was the outcome of the 2018 APEC meeting attended by Indonesia?
-The meeting ended without a consensus on a final declaration, marking the first time in APEC history that member economies could not agree due to differing views on trade.
What can China do to improve its standing in Indonesia compared to the US?
-China should broaden its approach beyond economic investments and consider Indonesia's perspectives and interests to foster a more balanced relationship.
What is the predicted outcome for Indonesia if tensions between the US and China escalate?
-If the rivalry intensifies, Indonesia may lean towards the US, as it is perceived as less threatening than China, despite the economic ties with both countries.

Outlines

00:00

🌍 Indonesia's Neutrality in Global Rivalries

The transcript discusses Indonesia's diplomatic strategy, which has centered on maintaining a neutral stance amidst the rivalries of superpowers like China and the United States. Since its independence in 1945, Indonesia has engaged in free and active diplomacy, earning a reputation for having 'a million friends and zero enemies.' As a leader in Southeast Asia, being the only G20 member in the region and a founding member of ASEAN, Indonesia's role is that of a mediator in international conflicts. Recent events, including President Joko Widodo's visits to Ukraine and Russia, illustrate this approach. The country's relationship with China has seen substantial economic investments, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative, while the U.S. has focused on military collaborations. Tensions in the South China Sea and public sentiment in Indonesia favor a neutral position, with a significant majority preferring to avoid siding with either superpower in the event of a conflict.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Neutrality

Neutrality refers to a stance of not aligning with any major powers in international conflicts or rivalries. In the context of the video, Indonesia declares itself neutral, seeking to maintain a balanced diplomatic position between China and the United States. This approach is evident in Indonesia's historical engagement in free and active diplomacy, allowing it to foster relationships with various nations without becoming embroiled in their disputes.

💡ASEAN

ASEAN, or the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, is a regional organization that promotes economic, political, and security cooperation among its member states. As a founding member, Indonesia plays a significant role in ASEAN, contributing to regional stability and collaboration. The video highlights how Indonesia's leadership in ASEAN enhances its influence in Southeast Asia and its ability to act as a mediator among conflicting nations.

💡Belt and Road Initiative

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a global development strategy adopted by China, focusing on infrastructure investment and connectivity across Asia, Europe, and Africa. In Indonesia, the initiative has led to significant Chinese investments, such as the high-speed rail project connecting Jakarta and Bandung. However, the video emphasizes Indonesia's concerns about reliance on Chinese investments, especially given the delays and challenges associated with these projects.

💡Diplomacy

Diplomacy is the practice of conducting negotiations and maintaining relations between nations. Indonesia's diplomatic strategy is characterized by its desire to act as a bridge between conflicting parties, such as the U.S. and China. The video discusses Indonesia's attempts to mediate international crises, including its offers to facilitate dialogue over Iran's nuclear program, showcasing its commitment to diplomatic solutions.

💡Military Cooperation

Military cooperation involves collaboration between nations in defense matters, including joint exercises and training. The U.S. and Indonesia have historically worked together on counter-terrorism efforts, and the video highlights a recent shift towards maritime security collaboration in the South China Sea. This military engagement reflects the U.S.'s interest in strengthening its presence in the region amid rising tensions with China.

💡South China Sea

The South China Sea is a critical maritime region with strategic shipping lanes, embroiled in territorial disputes involving multiple countries, including China and Indonesia. The video underscores the challenges Indonesia faces due to aggressive Chinese claims in the area, particularly near the Natuna Islands. Indonesia's ability to navigate these disputes while maintaining neutrality is crucial for its national security and regional stability.

💡Investment

Investment refers to the allocation of resources, such as capital, to generate returns or benefits. The video contrasts the investment strategies of China and the U.S. in Indonesia, with China focusing on infrastructure projects while the U.S. emphasizes military partnerships. Despite significant Chinese investments, Indonesia's leaders are wary of becoming overly dependent on these funds, which is critical for maintaining their sovereign interests.

💡U.S.-China Rivalry

The U.S.-China rivalry encompasses the competitive political, economic, and military dynamics between the two superpowers. The video discusses how this rivalry influences Indonesia's foreign policy, forcing it to balance relations with both nations. As tensions escalate, Indonesia's choice to remain neutral highlights its strategic importance in the broader geopolitical landscape of Southeast Asia.

💡Public Sentiment

Public sentiment refers to the collective attitudes or opinions of a population regarding a particular issue or entity. The video notes that a majority of Indonesians prefer neutrality in the face of U.S.-China tensions, reflecting a broader desire for stability and peace. This public perspective influences the government's diplomatic strategies and decisions, underscoring the importance of aligning national policy with the people's views.

💡Economic Strategy

Economic strategy involves the planning and implementation of policies aimed at enhancing a nation's economic growth and stability. The video illustrates how Indonesia's economic strategy is affected by foreign investments, particularly from China and the U.S. While China invests heavily in infrastructure, the U.S. focuses on defense ties, indicating that Indonesia must navigate these differing approaches to maintain its economic independence.

Highlights

Indonesia maintains a neutral stance in its diplomatic relations with major powers, emphasizing 'friends to all, enemies to none.'

Since gaining independence in 1945, Indonesia has engaged in free and active diplomacy to enhance its global standing.

The country plays a significant role in Southeast Asia, being the only member of ASEAN that is part of the G20.

President Joko Widodo's visits to Ukraine and Russia exemplify Indonesia's mediation efforts between conflicting nations.

China has invested approximately $7.9 billion in Indonesian infrastructure projects, highlighting its economic influence in the region.

The Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail project, part of China's Belt and Road Initiative, has faced significant delays, raising concerns over investment reliability.

China is the third-largest investor in Indonesia, with $24.9 billion invested since 2000, compared to the U.S.'s $20 billion.

The U.S. has focused on enhancing defense ties with Indonesia, conducting joint military exercises and establishing a training center.

Maritime security in the South China Sea has become a new front in U.S.-Indonesia relations, given China's assertiveness in the region.

A recent poll indicates that 60% of Indonesians believe the country should work to limit China's influence in Asia.

Despite negative perceptions of China, 84% of Indonesians prefer the country to remain neutral in a potential U.S.-China conflict.

The increasing tensions between the U.S. and China have led Indonesia to consider aligning more closely with the U.S. due to perceived threats from China.

Public opinion in Indonesia reflects a desire for a balanced approach to foreign relations, emphasizing national interests.

Indonesia's leadership advocates for a diplomatic middle path amidst rising geopolitical tensions.

The failure to reach a consensus during the 2018 APEC meeting reflects the growing strain in U.S.-China relations, impacting Indonesia's diplomatic role.