SERI 3 FGD IIMS : POSITIONING GEOPOLITIK INDONESIA DI LAUT CHINA SELATAN ERA PRESIDEN PRABOWO

Summary

This transcript delves into Indonesia’s geopolitical strategy amidst growing tensions between China and the United States. It discusses Indonesia’s maritime policy, its strategic positioning between these two powers, and the challenges it faces. The script also touches upon historical power dynamics, the rise of China, and its implications for global trade and security. The speaker outlines potential future scenarios, including America’s shifting approach to global alliances, the impact of protectionism, and the evolving relationship between the U.S., China, and Russia, with a special focus on Southeast Asia.

Takeaways

• 😀 China is often perceived as a threat by many countries, but this perception is framed subjectively. A more objective approach is needed to understand both the opportunities and challenges in engaging with China.
• 😀 Indonesia's 'Global Maritime Axis' strategy, initially championed by President Jokowi, has largely been abandoned, yet it remains crucial for Indonesia to position itself as a maritime power, not just a nation of islands.
• 😀 The growing rivalry between the US and China over global hegemony is a central focus, as both nations vie for influence. This competition is mirrored in regional issues like the South China Sea and Taiwan.
• 😀 Historical context plays a significant role in understanding China's aspirations. Once a regional hegemon, China is now aiming to regain its global stature, which challenges US dominance, especially in terms of economic power.
• 😀 There is a shift in global power distribution, with China and India rising while America's economic influence wanes. This shift leads to debates about whether we are witnessing a new world order and potential conflict.
• 😀 Unlike the Soviet Union's collapse, China today has significant economic interdependence with the global economy, making it a more formidable player in international relations.
• 😀 China's increasing economic power and its status as a global manufacturing giant have made it a significant challenge for the US, particularly in terms of trade imbalances and international competitiveness.
• 😀 In geopolitics, countries like Russia and China are often seen as adversaries to US hegemony. However, Russia's economic decline has pushed it closer to China, leading to a strategic alliance against the West.
• 😀 The economic rivalry between the US and China escalates with trade wars, such as the one initiated by Trump, and a shift towards protectionism, including tariffs and supply chain relocations away from China.
• 😀 US foreign policy under Trump is characterized by unpredictability and an 'off-balancing' strategy, where America builds its power to counter threats without fully committing to foreign conflicts, while pushing allied countries to increase defense spending.

Q & A

What is the main argument presented about China's rise in global geopolitics?

The main argument is that China's economic and strategic rise poses a challenge to the United States, as China aims to become a global hegemon. This shift in power dynamics between the two nations could lead to significant geopolitical tensions, especially in regions like the South China Sea and Taiwan.

How does the speaker view Indonesia's role in the global geopolitical landscape?

Indonesia is seen as a nation with the potential to become a maritime power, leveraging its maritime resources for national advancement. However, Indonesia cannot afford to choose sides between China and the U.S., as it faces strategic vulnerabilities from both countries' influences.

What is the significance of Indonesia's 'poros maritim dunia' or global maritime axis concept?

The concept of 'poros maritim dunia' is crucial for positioning Indonesia as a leading maritime nation. It suggests that Indonesia should harness its maritime resources for economic and strategic purposes, transcending its current status as merely an archipelagic country.

What is the historical context that the speaker uses to explain China's rise as a hegemon?

The speaker references historical periods when China and India were dominant global economies, particularly in the 18th century. Despite periods of internal decline, China has re-emerged as an economic powerhouse in the 21st century, challenging the U.S.'s hegemonic role.

What is the theory of 'power shift' that the speaker mentions?

The theory of 'power shift' refers to the changing global distribution of power, where China and India are rising while the U.S. is declining. This shift is potentially leading to the creation of a new bipolar world order, with China posing a direct challenge to U.S. dominance.

How does the speaker predict the potential U.S.-China conflict will unfold?

The speaker suggests that the U.S. may attempt to counterbalance China's growing power through strategic alliances and trade wars, as seen in the trade war and the military presence in the Indo-Pacific. However, a direct military conflict between the two superpowers remains uncertain.

How does the speaker differentiate the U.S. and China’s economic interactions from past geopolitical rivalries?

Unlike the Cold War rivalry between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, the U.S. and China are deeply interconnected economically. China is a major part of the global supply chain, making it harder for the U.S. to impose the same level of isolation and sanctions that it did with the Soviet Union.

What does the speaker mean by 'off-balancing' in the context of U.S. strategy?

'Off-balancing' refers to the U.S. strategy of building alliances or enhancing its own power in ways that counteract a rising power like China, without directly engaging in full-scale conflict. This involves strategic military deployments and fostering economic partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region.

What impact does the speaker foresee for Indonesia's economy under the global tensions between the U.S. and China?

Indonesia might experience challenges in maintaining economic stability due to its trade surpluses with the U.S. and its economic ties to China. The speaker warns that the increasing global trade protectionism, such as the U.S.-China trade war, could negatively impact Indonesia’s export-driven economy.

How does the speaker address the potential for future conflicts in the global order, especially involving Russia?

The speaker suggests that while the U.S. views Russia as a rival, the possibility of Russia aligning with China against U.S. interests is growing. However, U.S. policy remains focused on isolating Russia to prevent it from becoming a hegemonic power, particularly in Europe, while encouraging tensions with China in the Asia-Pacific.