Babak Baru Perang Dagang Amerika Serikat dan China | IDX CHANNEL

Summary

This discussion explores the impact of the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China, focusing on how it affects various sectors, such as steel and aluminum, and the global economy. Key points include how Indonesia can leverage its trade agreements with countries like ASEAN, Australia, and New Zealand, while exploring opportunities in industries like palm oil despite challenges. The speakers highlight the importance of diversifying trade relationships and maximizing Indonesia's strengths in a rapidly changing global trade landscape, especially with rising tensions between economic superpowers.

Takeaways

• 😀 The ongoing U.S.-China trade war is having a significant impact on industries like steel, aluminum, and manufacturing, where many workers are employed.
• 😀 The trade conflict has brought attention to international trade laws, particularly the right to impose tariffs and the use of trade remedy instruments such as those offered by the WTO.
• 😀 The U.S. is leveraging its superpower status to influence global markets, a trend seen in past trade disputes with companies like Toshiba and in industries like smartphones.
• 😀 Indonesia has an opportunity to shift its export focus from traditional markets like the U.S. and China to emerging economies such as India, ASEAN nations, and regional trade partners.
• 😀 Indonesia's free trade agreements (FTAs) with countries like India, ASEAN, Australia, and New Zealand offer significant potential for diversifying export markets and reducing dependency on a few giants.
• 😀 The ongoing trade war could lead to three potential outcomes: U.S. consumers may shift away from Chinese goods, choose from limited product options, or continue buying Chinese goods despite higher tariffs.
• 😀 Indonesia must leverage its strengths, such as palm oil (CPO) and other natural resources, to maintain competitive advantage in the global market amid shifting trade dynamics.
• 😀 Indonesia's efforts to join organizations like the OECD and appeal against the EU's deforestation law on palm oil demonstrate its proactive approach to securing trade benefits.
• 😀 Global economic shifts, such as the U.S.-China trade war, require Indonesia to capitalize on regional cooperation and develop strong economic partnerships within Southeast Asia and beyond.
• 😀 The government and businesses must remain agile, adjusting to changing global trade landscapes by exploring new markets, optimizing existing trade agreements, and maintaining strong international relationships.

Q & A

How has the trade war between the U.S. and China affected global industries?

The trade war has disrupted several industries, particularly those involving steel, aluminum, and other products with large labor forces. These sectors have been heavily impacted by tariffs and trade restrictions, affecting both local workers and international markets.

Why does the U.S. often take a superpower approach in trade relations?

The U.S. uses its position as a global superpower to assert influence over international trade policies, often by imposing tariffs or other restrictions. This approach allows the U.S. to maintain its global economic dominance, as seen in past cases such as the impact on Toshiba and Chinese mobile phones.

What strategic advantage does Indonesia have in light of the U.S.-China trade war?

Indonesia has the opportunity to diversify its export markets and reduce reliance on dominant global players like the U.S. and China. With Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with countries like China, India, and ASEAN members, Indonesia can strengthen its economic position and expand trade relationships.

How is the U.S.-China trade war expected to affect consumer behavior?

There are three potential outcomes: American consumers may shift their reliance from China to other countries, they may choose products from other countries if options are limited, or they might continue purchasing Chinese products despite higher costs due to tariffs.

What role does technology and innovation play in China’s competitive advantage?

China has become increasingly sophisticated in utilizing advanced technology, including AI and manufacturing processes, to compete globally. This technological edge allows China to maintain and grow its presence in international markets, even amidst trade tensions.

What challenges and opportunities exist for Indonesian exporters due to the changing global trade landscape?

The challenges for Indonesian exporters include navigating shifting trade policies, such as the EU’s deforestation laws impacting palm oil exports. However, opportunities lie in leveraging FTAs and diversifying into markets like India and ASEAN to mitigate risks associated with reliance on major economies like the U.S. and China.

What actions can Indonesia take to mitigate the risks of overdependence on one or two global powers?

Indonesia can optimize its existing trade agreements, such as FTAs with ASEAN, India, and China, and explore new markets. Focusing on industries where Indonesia has a competitive edge, like palm oil (CPO), can further reduce dependency on a few major economies.

How can Indonesia leverage its position in international organizations to benefit from the current trade environment?

Indonesia can maximize its involvement in international organizations, such as the OECD, to secure better trade terms and protect its economic interests. Its active participation in global forums, like the recent World Water Forum, also enhances its international visibility and influence.

What role does the EU’s deforestation law play in Indonesia’s trade dynamics?

The EU’s deforestation law has created challenges for Indonesia’s palm oil exports. As the country faces legal hurdles in responding to the law, it has taken steps to challenge the regulation and seek favorable terms in international trade negotiations.

What is the overall outlook for Indonesia’s economy amidst the U.S.-China trade war?

While challenges remain due to global trade uncertainties, Indonesia has a positive outlook if it adapts strategically. By focusing on key industries, optimizing existing trade agreements, and exploring new markets, Indonesia can turn the shifting global landscape to its advantage.