Is The Bottom In? 🚀 How Fed Could Ignite A Rally! 📈

Summary

In this dynamic presentation, the speaker confidently declares that the market bottom has been reached, not based on a gut feeling, but backed by extensive data analysis. The discussion navigates through a wealth of information, focusing on Bitcoin's position and potential, scrutinizing Federal Reserve actions, and dissecting the impact of ETF flows and GBTC dynamics. With a bullish outlook, the speaker forecasts a promising future for Bitcoin, underpinned by strong data points and market trends, suggesting an imminent rise despite current volatilities. The talk is enriched with insights into macroeconomic factors, investor behaviors, and strategic market movements, making a compelling case for Bitcoin's upward trajectory.

Takeaways

• 🙂 The presenter is bullish on Bitcoin, citing comprehensive data analysis as the basis for their confidence.
• 📝 Discussion includes detailed examination of Bitcoin's current status, predictions, and the influence of external factors like the Federal Reserve's decisions.
• 💸 Highlights the importance of ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) in Bitcoin's market dynamics, especially in relation to recent developments and demand.
• 🔴 Emphasizes the impact of the GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust) sell-off on the market, but suggests new ETFs are absorbing the impact positively.
• 🔥 Shares optimism about Bitcoin's future, referencing a prediction of significant price increase within 12-24 months.
• 🤔 Raises concerns about misconceptions surrounding ETF demand and attempts to debunk myths with data.
• 🔧 Addresses the 'stealth QE' (Quantitative Easing) actions by the Federal Reserve and their implications on the market.
• 🛠 Discusses the potential for the tokenization of financial assets as a future step in the evolution of digital currencies and blockchain technology.
• 📈 Analyzes Bitcoin's order book to argue that a thin market depth could lead to rapid price increases under certain conditions.
• 🗺 Offers insights into the strategic moves by large Bitcoin holders and institutions, highlighting their influence on the market's direction.

Q & A

What is the main reason given for the presenter's belief that the bottom of the market has been reached?

The presenter believes the bottom of the market has been reached due to data analysis, not just a personal feeling. They emphasize that their review of various data points suggests this conclusion.

What is the 'Bitcoin playlist' mentioned in the script?

The 'Bitcoin playlist' refers to a collection of content specifically focused on Bitcoin, which the presenter mentions as being available for those interested in Bitcoin-only information.

What is the presenter's view on the Federal Reserve's actions and its impact on markets?

The presenter is critical of the Federal Reserve, suggesting they don't always tell the truth and engage in 'stealth quantitative easing.' They believe the Fed's actions and decisions, such as keeping a lid on markets, contribute to market volatility and uncertainty.

How does the presenter interpret the relationship between ETF demand for Bitcoin and market sentiment?

The presenter refutes the idea that ETF demand for Bitcoin is waning, arguing instead that the demand remains strong. They present data and analysis to support the view that ETF interest in Bitcoin is not decreasing significantly.

What was the significance of the four-week timeframe mentioned in the script?

The four-week timeframe is highlighted as a critical period leading up to a significant event, likely related to the Bitcoin market. The presenter uses this to underscore the urgency and importance of the current market situation.

Can you explain the presenter's mention of 'stealth QE' and its implications?

'Stealth QE' refers to stealth quantitative easing, which implies the Federal Reserve is indirectly injecting liquidity into the economy without openly admitting to it. The presenter suggests that this hidden activity impacts markets and is not aligned with the Fed's public statements.

What is the 'gutsy call' made by the presenter at the beginning of the script?

The presenter's 'gutsy call' is their assertion that the bottom of the market is in, based on their analysis of various data points. This suggests a confidence in a market turnaround or stabilization.

What does the mention of UK inflation beating expectations indicate in the context of the script?

The presenter references UK inflation beating expectations as a positive macroeconomic sign, contrasting it with the U.S. They speculate whether the UK's management of inflation is better or different compared to the U.S.

How does the presenter view the current state of the Bitcoin bull market?

The presenter believes that the Bitcoin bull market is still in its early stages, referencing a prediction that Bitcoin could reach a $200,000 target. They suggest that the market is not yet experiencing a bubble or excessive frothiness.

What implications does the script suggest regarding the tokenization of financial assets?

The script suggests that the future of financial markets could involve the widespread tokenization of assets like stocks, bonds, and real estate. The presenter views this trend as being underpinned by cryptocurrency technologies, indicating a significant shift in how financial assets are handled.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Optimistic Analysis of Bitcoin's Future

The speaker begins by asserting confidence in Bitcoin reaching its bottom, based not on a hunch but on extensive data analysis. They express gratitude to their audience and mention notable community members, highlighting the importance of the collective insight into Bitcoin's trajectory. The narrative quickly dives into detailed discussions about the current state of Bitcoin, including its volatility, the impact of the Federal Reserve's decisions, and the debunking of rumors about declining ETF demand. Additionally, the speaker criticizes the Federal Reserve's monetary policies, implying they indirectly support the market through 'stealth QE.' Amidst macroeconomic analyses, including UK's inflation control, the speaker suggests Bitcoin's potential growth, underpinned by the continued interest in Bitcoin ETFs, contrary to the rumors of waning demand.

05:00

🔍 Deep Dive into ETF Dynamics and Market Movements

The narrative delves into the specifics of ETF activity and market dynamics, pointing out a discrepancy in the speaker's volume model but emphasizing the overall bullish sentiment for Bitcoin. The detailed analysis counters the notion that ETF interest is diminishing by showcasing significant Bitcoin purchases by ETFs, excluding GBTC. The speaker addresses the retail financial advisors' slow but growing interest in Bitcoin, predicting a substantial impact on the market. Despite GBTC's sell-off, the analysis suggests this may offer a unique opportunity for new ETFs to absorb Bitcoin, fostering a positive market outlook. The speaker also touches on tax implications affecting GBTC investors' decisions, contributing to a nuanced understanding of the market's complexities.

10:01

💡 Turning Points and Market Resilience

Focusing on critical market indicators and events, the speaker highlights the anticipated end to GBTC's market impact and Grayscale's adaptation to market pressures by reducing fees. This section outlines a broader market analysis, predicting the imminent cessation of GBTC's negative influence. It presents a detailed account of Bitcoin's resilience, evidenced by stable ownership and the anticipation of a price increase to entice long-term holders to sell. The speaker also cites significant figures and trends, such as institutional interest in Bitcoin and the tokenization of assets as the future of finance, positioning Bitcoin at the center of a transformative financial landscape.

15:02

🚀 Bitcoin's Journey Amid ETFs and Global Perspectives

This part of the script provides an analytical perspective on the ETF market's influence on Bitcoin's price and the strategic moves of major players in the space. The discussion extends to global financial dynamics, including Qatar's credit rating and its implications for Bitcoin. The speaker further examines the ETF inflows and outflows, comparing them to GBTC's sell-off, and presents a calculated optimism for Bitcoin's future price based on the balance of market activities. The narrative reinforces the belief in Bitcoin's bullish trend, supported by solid data and the strategic positioning of ETFs.

20:04

🌐 Market Dynamics and the Path Forward

The final segment wraps up the analysis with a focus on market dynamics, emphasizing the thinness of the Bitcoin order book and its implications for rapid price movements. The speaker underscores the significant potential for Bitcoin's price increase if not for GBTC's continued sell-off, painting a picture of a market on the brink of a substantial upward trajectory. Concluding with encouragement for the audience to stay informed and engaged, the speaker hints at the exciting developments ahead for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, reinforcing a message of optimism and forward-looking enthusiasm.

Keywords

💡Bitcoin bottom

The 'Bitcoin bottom' refers to the point at which Bitcoin's price stops declining and begins to increase, signaling a reversal in market trend. In the context of the video, the speaker asserts that based on extensive data analysis, the bottom for Bitcoin has been reached. This is significant as it suggests a bullish outlook, indicating that the price of Bitcoin is expected to rise. The determination of the bottom is not based on a gut feeling but on comprehensive data analysis, underlining the speaker's confidence in the prediction.

💡ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund)

An ETF is an investment fund traded on stock exchanges, much like stocks. The video discusses the impact of Bitcoin ETFs and their demand dynamics. It emphasizes that contrary to rumors, demand for Bitcoin ETFs is not waning but is, in fact, robust, underpinned by significant volumes and investments. The speaker challenges the narrative of declining ETF demand, providing evidence to the contrary and highlighting the role of new Bitcoin ETFs in absorbing bitcoins from the market, thus influencing Bitcoin's price dynamics.

💡GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust) dump

GBTC dumping refers to the selling of Bitcoin held by the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which can exert downward pressure on Bitcoin's market price. The speaker discusses how GBTC's selling activities have been a significant factor in the market but suggests that the impact of these sales is being mitigated by the absorption of Bitcoin by new ETFs. This discussion is crucial for understanding the interplay between GBTC's actions and the broader Bitcoin market dynamics.

💡Federal Reserve (FED)

The Federal Reserve, or FED, is the central banking system of the United States. The video mentions the FED's influence on financial markets, including Bitcoin, through its policies and decisions, particularly around interest rates and quantitative easing. The speaker criticizes the FED's approach, suggesting it indirectly benefits Bitcoin by its actions, which are seen as contributing to fiscal expansion and inflationary pressures.

💡Quantitative Easing (QE)

Quantitative Easing is a monetary policy used by central banks to inject money into the economy by purchasing securities. The speaker mentions 'Stealth QE,' implying that the Federal Reserve is engaged in quantitative easing through indirect means, despite official narratives. This context is important as it relates to the speaker's view on macroeconomic policies and their impact on investment strategies, including Bitcoin investment.

💡Inflation control

Inflation control refers to the efforts and measures taken by governments and central banks to manage and stabilize the rate of inflation. The video briefly compares the effectiveness of inflation control in the UK to the US, suggesting that successful inflation management can have broader implications for financial markets and investment strategies, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

💡Bear market

A bear market refers to a market condition where prices are falling or are expected to fall, encouraging selling. The speaker acknowledges the creation of wealth during bear markets by identifying investment opportunities, like 'clean Spork,' that can yield significant returns despite the overall market downtrend. This concept underlines the video's theme of strategic investment and market analysis.

💡Tokenization

Tokenization in the context of blockchain and cryptocurrency refers to the process of converting rights to an asset into a digital token on a blockchain. The speaker highlights comments from Larry Fink about the future of financial assets being tokenized, suggesting a broad transformation of financial markets enabled by blockchain technology. This is presented as an inevitable progression that will affect all financial assets, reinforcing the importance of cryptocurrencies in the future of finance.

💡Market depth

Market depth refers to the market's ability to sustain relatively large market orders without impacting the price of the security. The speaker uses this concept to explain the current state of the Bitcoin market, suggesting that a lack of depth (or a 'thin' order book) means that large transactions could significantly impact Bitcoin's price, potentially leading to rapid price increases. This is important for understanding the speaker's bullish stance on Bitcoin's price potential.

💡Bull market

A bull market is characterized by rising prices and optimism in the market. The video's discussion about the early innings of a bull market for Bitcoin indicates the speaker's belief that Bitcoin's price has much room to grow. This outlook is based on analysis of market trends, investment flows into Bitcoin ETFs, and broader economic indicators. The concept is central to the video's message, aiming to provide viewers with a confident outlook on Bitcoin's future performance.

Highlights

Announcement that the bottom is in for Bitcoin, based on extensive data analysis.

Discussion on the successful track record of data-driven investment calls over the last couple of years.

A comprehensive review of Bitcoin, promising the most detailed analysis available.

Introduction of a four-week bullish timeframe for Bitcoin.

Analysis of current Bitcoin volatility and price movements, including a rebound from a dip.

Debunking rumors about waning ETF demand for Bitcoin, backed by data.

Critique of the Federal Reserve's policies and their impact on market perceptions and Bitcoin.

UK inflation control contrasted with the US, suggesting possible outcomes for Bitcoin.

Prediction of a significant Bitcoin price increase in the next 12 to 24 months, targeting $200,000.

Explanation of ETFs' role in Bitcoin investment and the inaccuracy of reports on their declining demand.

Insight into Grayscale's GBTC selling pressure on Bitcoin's price and the potential for recovery.

Analysis of long-term holding trends in Bitcoin, indicating a strong belief in future price appreciation.

Impact of new Bitcoin ETFs on market dynamics and price support.

Discussion on the potential of Bitcoin and blockchain for the tokenization of all financial assets.

Final thoughts on the inevitability of higher Bitcoin prices due to market mechanics and investment flows.

Transcripts

hey everybody Welcome in as usual I make

gutsy calls today my call is the bottom

is in and guess why not because I feel

it's in but because all the data I look

at tell me it's in so thank you all for

coming uh and again I'm Human After all

but the data has been extremely good to

us over the last couple of years and uh

let's walk through a ton of data and

let's walk through as well the most

comprehensive view of Bitcoin on the

face of the planet so thank you all for

coming thank you to the mods in the chat

as well and I just missed something here

from chiku chiku thank you for coming

too and master of coin all the fun

people here and we have a new KPM shout

out the watch Goose I wish I would

joined patreon earlier

well never too late but uh bare

Market billions are made in the bear but

don't worry we're still finding Alpha

like yesterday yesterday we picked clean

Spork and it went to 20% in a day so

it's pretty good anyway let's go uh

Bitcoin playlist uh remember this is

here if you want Bitcoin only content

playlist is added here and we only have

four weeks to go okay this is this is

Point number one as to why I'm very

bullish four weeks four weeks is not a

lot of time it'll go so fast so fast

indeed in addition there's a lot of

concern about the FED I just wrote this

half an hour ago I spoke about how

Bitcoin yes it's been volatile yes it

dipped to 61k they rebounded to 64k in a

few hours and now it's about 63k so it's

a little bit all over the place there is

a dump there is a gbtc dump we'll talk

about that in detail and uh there's a

lot of rumors as well going around that

the ETF demand is waning it's not there

I'll prove that that's wrong everybody's

always worried about the fed and we

don't need to talk more about the FED

except for the fact that when the FED is

going to make a decision it puts a lid

on markets people get very nervous

because they don't want a nasty surprise

but this fed doesn't surprise to the

nasty but they also don't quite tell the

truth they jaw bone a lot they try keep

a lid on things and they say well we

have this magical unicorn 2% inflation

goal and we're doing quantitive

tightening when really they're not okay

I've been talking about Stealth QE

stealth quanti of using for ever since

the btfp program came out and this is

from Chris McAllister shout out to sanj

as well for sharing how has anyone

forgot about this it bleeds out via the

Deferred asset account every month and

is certainly the reason why the FED

funds is broken okay the FED is broken

fed funds is broken rates are broken

every day that goes by with the FED

paying IB RRP btfp Etc right as those

Securities roll off it is fiscal

expansion it is QE it is stealth QE so

do not kid yourselves government is

printing like there's no freaking

tomorrow you just don't see it in your

pocket yet so Stern words there now we

always have to look at the macro when we

look at Bitcoin so I'm going to start

off some y Ming boring macro news but

this is good news out of the UK hello

everybody to team UK out there hope

you're all doing well well this is

interesting uh UK inflation is under

control so the US had some nasty CPI PPI

surprises but the UK actually beat

expectations so either the UK government

is better at cooking the inflation books

than the us and we know the US is really

bad at that or they actually have

inflation licked we'll see but I do know

that the central banks coordinate with

each other and they also talk about this

miraculous unicorn 2% and the US seeing

the UK in this situation will be a

positive sign now time for some exciting

news shout out to Danto he comes out

with this just six hours ago Amir 3x

over 12 to 24 months is what he expects

for Bitcoin that is a $200,000 Target

the bull market is just in its third

inning now everybody's talking about

Innings all of a sudden I think there

are nine in total so we're third the way

into the bull market which is I actually

very much agree with and he's not

feeling a bubul or froth right now he's

at an event in London blockworks event

and people aren't going crazy but the

future is very bright so shout out to

Dan nice work uh now the other piece of

fake narrative that's floating around

that is everybody very nervous is the

ETF demand is waning it's in the toilet

it's like nobody's interest this Bitcoin

ETF stuff before anymore well no that's

not true if you look at ibit here and

the volume that they're doing it is

insane yes there was a little bit of a

weird thing happening yesterday normally

I have my volume model

indicator and when there's a certain

amount of volume I can calculate what

the inflow will be that was off

yesterday and it's the first time it's

been off by a lot so Maya Cula here the

model is broken but the times are also a

little bit different some weird stuff

going on all over the place the t+ one

and all these different types of things

I can't quite get a handle on but when

you look at this chart here shout out to

hle 15

the ETFs are selling is incorrect it is

BS and look at the bottom row the ETFs

excluding gbtc bought nearly 10,000

Bitcoin over the last two days so the

data says no no no this is not slowing

down not by any manner of means and

remember as well the retail financial

advisers are only just beginning to have

the so-called penny drop in their brains

to help their customers allocate towards

Bitcoin it's a lengthy process and we'll

start seeing the juice of that squeeze

come out now over the next 90 days it's

begun to hit and remember when people

start Auto allocating a percentage of

their retirement fund paycheck 401K Isa

whatever fund it is around the world

super annuation in Australia then we'll

see that constant bid kick in okay now

another view of the ETFs not selling not

one of the nine new ETFs are selling

shout out to Bel chunis pretty wild that

one that none of the nine newborn

ETFs after Bitcoin being down for nearly

a week all right and a 13 11% drop

depending on where you measure it from

the they are still adding to their

Bitcoin bags okay yes of course G gbtc

we'll talk about it in great detail in a

minute has been very very dumpy

craziness like we thought that that you

know what was flushed but no it's still

there but let's talk about ibit for a

second and I'll break down a lot of

numbers as well with some charts in a

minute some new exciting charts too ibit

has the number two

ETF in year-to-date flows on the face of

planet Earth ladies and gentlemen that

is massive now if you had asked anybody

would this be the case 47 days in and

remember we missed the first 12 days

that ibit would be the number two

biggest ETF on the

planet you'd say you're crazy okay so

these things aren't slowing down get rid

of that fud now gbtc however is selling

and according to Arkham uh they did pump

some more Bitcoin to coinbase again I

mean the drainage of this stuff actually

has me surprised I thought it was

slowing down there about 10 15 days ago

it continues to accelerate and here

another 5001 Bitcoin is being pumped

over about 238 million dollar worth and

that will be sold later today the

question is can the new ETFs gobble it

up and I think yes because I'll share

data and I'll average it out across

Fidelity ibit and the average dumpage

and how even just with black rock alone

they are more than absorbing everything

from gbtc but there's more this is one

of the gbtc charts it shows you the

dumpage it wasn't the worst dumpage day

yesterday but was pretty bad the day

before was the worst dumpage day uh but

still a ton is hitting the market and

again if this wasn't happening it would

be a different kettle of fish all right

so and remember as well I'll State this

very clearly the

money in Bitcoin in gbtc is not going

into the 9u ETFs the 9u ETFs are buying

this so it's actually almost like a

blessing in disguise that these 9u ETFs

have access to bitcoin because if it

wasn't for great scale there would be no

access and I'll explain that with some

charts as well towards the end of the

show I'll prove it to you this is crazy

absolutely crazy but hey there's more

now the question is will gbtc go to zero

I get this question all the time and the

thought is no there's always some people

trapped with uh long-term capital gains

uh very low cost basis and they're not

going to incur 20% hit or even higher

depending on where they are by selling

their gbtc so some portion of it will

what stuns me is nearly half of it is

all done by speculators the Genesis the

dcgs the ftxs ETC they are the ones in

there but from Bob here this is exactly

my situation I have sold some shares of

gbtc but I can't sell them for ibit

because the tax liability would be too

high so I just take the gbt tax tax of

1.5% a year instead okay that's the

logic here and for from Rip Van Winkle

right I figure at least 40% of the BDC

in the fund is deep in profit and that

fund will not go to

zero interesting Rip Van Winkle said 40%

because that's exactly how much has been

dumped out of it so that means maximum

20% left to go if rip is right and I

think he's going to be very ballpark

right so

again the last of the the flush is is

nearly there that's why I say the

Bottom's in for many other reasons and

guess who's capitulating Mr Sunny Boy

capitulates gray scale to lower ETF fees

as outflows keep

climbing they lost half their bag 12

billion outflows since January and now

this like okay we're not going to be

able to rip our customers for one and a

half% anymore we've got to capitulate

which is good news too and that will

also stem the bleed then

what happens next what do the 9 ETS do

where are they going to find the Bitcoin

they can't can't knock on the hey coin

base can I get some more of that gbtc

stuff uh they'll say um sorry um they're

not selling anymore anyway this is the

evolution of exactly what happened shout

out to rational rout you can see here

black is ibit that's all you need to

know they have more than consumed all of

the dump from grayscale now at the

beginning of the year gray scale had

640,000 Bitcoin now they got a lot less

we'll share those numbers in a second

too another cool piece of news getting

off the grayscale bandwagon for a minute

here uh this is from Larry Fink the

fster he said he did talk H about how

Bitcoin ETF was the first step to what

he thinks is the biggest step of all the

next step is the tokenization of all

Financial assets that means every stock

every Bond every piece of real estate

etc etc will all be tokenized in his

vision of the future crypto is the

underpinning of exactly

that all right this is the biggest money

runner on the face of the planet and

he's telling you the tokenization of

everything is coming and he told you the

Bitcoin ETF is coming this guy does not

fool around and he does not make

mistakes so when he speaks listen up

carefully now what's really interesting

about this is is what's Elizabeth Warren

going to do when this guy wants to

tokenize everything with crypto she is s

so as they say in the old world now

other breaking news wed Capital says

retraces are normal this current 18%

133% 15% whatever Bitcoin preh having

Trace is very close to equaling the

minus 19% preh having retrace in 2020

and remember for those of you who don't

remember 2020 was a very very bumpy time

because of

c19 we are basically the same and again

if it was not for the gbdc dumpage we'd

already be on the moon so make sure you

have your moon boots handy I tell you

that's a simple fact of life and I'll

prove it to you as well coming up now

first of all before we get to the fun

charts micro strategy has more more

Bitcoin than China who has China

government has

194,000 confiscated Bitcoin and the US

government has 210,000 confiscated

Bitcoin combined 400,000 and they're

huddling which is kind of interesting

and uh yeah we know Michael saor bought

again yesterday now in other fun news we

have different parts of the world Kar

has been upgraded to doublea from AA

minus by fit lifting the gasr country's

credit rating above that of France and

the United Kingdom we're talking about

the United Kingdom twice today wow now

I'm thinking out loud here it's like the

many rumors and where there's smoke

there is fire always always always I

know somewhere somehow katar are

allocating to bitcoin question is how

much do they have have they started how

much they have planned to allocate and

just imagine for a second what

allocating to bitcoin will do for the

credit rating of a country Madness by

the way since I started Bitcoin shot up

700 bucks woohoo good Juju on the

channel here now let's talk about the

Bitcoin black hole day 47 raw

numbers big thing to take away here

another nasty red but the nastiest red

ever was yesterday Tuesday and when I'm

talking about the nastiest red ever this

is the biggest dip that we've had net

from the flow so the flow into Fidelity

was low 39.6 million the flow into black

rock ibit was only 75.2 million and I

ran the numbers I calculated every

single average for every single fund you

can't make this up the average flow into

Fidelity every day into the Bitcoin ETF

is $150 million the average flow into

ibit every single day is $276 million a

day okay the other seven ETFs average 15

million in a day split between them so I

don't really analyze them too much

because they're crumbs and there's no

point in doing that but that is still

substantial when you add the nine

together they are pulling in on average

$440 million per day for 40 7 days

straight on average now the fun part the

gbtc dump average per day is 273 million

which is 3 million less than Black Rock

alone and fun comment for the kids on

the show watching what is 440 million

minus 273 million well that's the net

flow so drop a comment below if you got

your kids watching I always like to make

them do some homework while we're here

now ETF macro update what looks like

over 47 days you can see black rock had

a very weak day the weakest day they've

had for 20 days which is kind of

interesting Fidelity also a nothing

burger and we know after a quiet day

they have a busy day now the volumes

yesterday did not speak to the craziness

but now I know that everybody is buying

the dip retail are snagging these

$63,000 $62,000 $61,500 Bitcoin and I

know because I have firsthand experience

people have their limited orders I

bought the dip yesterday in a proxy but

here we are

gbtc will slow and the other 9 ETFs will

accelerate okay so worst case scenario

worst

case there's $120,000 $10,000 Bitcoin

needs to leave gbtc over the next three

or four months that's it when that

happens there is nothing left on the

Shelf unless of course long-term holders

sell now this is the money flow you can

see it wasn't a good day uh but still

not too bad uh now we did have I have

this red line that shows you the

aggregate money flow into the ETFs we

had the biggest dip ever in the history

of these ETFs so you can see those two

big negative dips that is the worst

we've ever had especially two days in a

row but you know what happens after two

bad days you get good days and that's

just how this thing works at least over

the last 47 days now we still have 24

billion into the nine new ETFs which is

stunning and 44,000 Bitcoin into these

nine new ETFs that cannot be sniffed at

and how many went back into the system

yesterday

5,269 Bitcoin uh and the day before is

2,228 all thanks to massive dumpage from

grayscale and a tiny slowdown in the

buying from the ETFs the question is

what's going to happen next let's look

at a couple of charts that will tell you

exactly what what's going to happen next

and this is why I believe the bottom is

in at

61k which I also telegraphed yesterday

too now this is from Bitcoin Munger and

what he did with his beautiful his

finger painting is almost as good as

mine no we're both terrible at this but

we've got different skills you can see

here this is the one-year huddle wave

okay and what

happens when the one-year hudle wave

does not

dip the answer is the price goes much

higher and basically we will likely need

to see much higher prices to entice the

long-term holders I.E the oneyear plus

holders to part with their Bitcoin it's

not happening they're not letting go

it's like that old guy from the NRA

Pride for my cold dead fingers you're

not going to get you're not going to get

it from these long-term holders and

proof of that is this chart from glass

Noe with Bitcoin up over 130% in the

past year yet dipping 133% in the recent

week an impressive 68% of all Bitcoin

has not been traded for over a year and

should history repeat itself these

Bitcoins might only change hands at

significantly higher prices we're

talking Dan tapier 200k plus levels and

the high percentage of dormant coins

even now suggests that Bitcoin is just

beginning its bull market Journey this

is history this is data bottom is in

we're going higher now how high and how

fast can we go is this final chart which

is very eye opening and it's a bit of an

eye chart so I'm going to walk through

it pretty slowly so you all get it now

we have here uh how to interpret this

this is the order book and basically the

takeaway is the Bitcoin order book is

thin all right this is where people

represent like the the left hand side is

shades of blue are the bids where people

want to buy Bitcoin and the stuff in

pink are the sell orders people that

want to sell at certain prices now if

you look at the amount of buy orders P

the green blue it's more than the pink

but the real scary thing is if you look

at as the price goes up which are the

sell orders these are the prices again

at which sellers are willing to sell

their Bitcoin and the size of how much

they're willing to sell and you can see

here there's not much available for sale

up to

75,000 okay and this is described as a

very thin order book where again there

are not many buy or sell orders close to

the market price which means that there

is less Market depth which means there

is a large large if a large transaction

came in looking to buy a lot of Bitcoin

and if gbtc wasn't dumping we would be

at $75,000 in minutes literally that's

just the math of how markets work

there's not much available for sale if

gbtc wants not dumping we'd be above 75k

already and we're going there it's just

a matter of how many weeks left again

four weeks to the

having one month to go it's going to be

a fun time thank you all for coming

don't forget to hit the like subscribe

to the Bitcoin only if this is what you

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anywhere on the planet not my words

that's what people say uh but thank you

all for coming thank you to the mods in

the chat too have a great day and I'll

see you all later

[Music]

bye-bye