Stock Market Correction Likely - But Not Bear Market #stockmarketcorrection #stockmarket
Summary
TLDRThe speaker shares their opinion on the QQQs' potential 10% drop by May 20th, based on historical market trends and a funnel analysis. They emphasize that this is not financial advice but their personal insight, inviting others to share their thoughts. The speaker uses historical data to support their prediction and highlights the importance of community knowledge in making informed investment decisions.
Takeaways
- 📉 The speaker predicts a 10% drop in the QQQs (NASDAQ-100 ETF) between the current date and May 20th, possibly affecting the Dow Jones and S&P as well.
- 💬 The prediction is based on historical market behavior and a funnel chart analysis, not financial advice.
- 📈 The market is believed to be strong, driven by artificial intelligence and machine learning, despite the anticipated correction.
- 📊 The funnel chart shows that as the market narrows and drops below the lower line, it historically drops a percentage of its rise.
- 🔄 Historical patterns indicate a 38% drop over 38 weeks, a 245% rise over 96 weeks, and a 145% rise over 43 weeks.
- 📉 The most recent drop of 12% over 12 weeks suggests a potential continuation of this pattern.
- 🔢 The speaker estimates that the 10% drop will occur over the next 10 weeks.
- 📅 The expected timeline for the 10% correction is around May 20th.
- 💡 The speaker emphasizes the importance of learning from past market history to predict future movements.
- 👥 The speaker invites others to share their opinions and contribute to a collective knowledge base for better investment decisions.
- 🚌 The speaker encourages joining their 'tribe' for shared learning and investment insights, offering a discount for the Platinum level on their website.
Q & A
What is the predicted change in the QQQs between now and May 20th?
-The predicted change in the QQQs is a decrease of about 10%.
What is the speaker's basis for predicting a 10% drop in the QQQs?
-The speaker's basis for predicting a 10% drop is an analysis of historical market trends and a funnel chart that shows a pattern of rises and drops in the QQQs.
What does the speaker mean by having a 'belly button'?
-Having a 'belly button' is a humorous way the speaker uses to say that everyone has the right to have an opinion.
What is the significance of the funnel in the chart presented by the speaker?
-The funnel in the chart signifies the narrowing of the difference between higher highs and higher lows, which historically precedes a market drop.
How long did the QQQs drop after reaching a peak in March 2020?
-After reaching a peak in March 2020, the QQQs dropped for 36 to 38 weeks.
What percentage did the QQQs drop during the 38-week period following the March 2020 peak?
-The QQQs dropped by 38% during the 38-week period following the March 2020 peak.
What happened in the market after the QQQs dropped 38% over 38 weeks?
-After the QQQs dropped 38% over 38 weeks, the market reversed and started creating higher highs and higher lows again.
What is the expected duration for the predicted 10% drop in the QQQs?
-The expected duration for the predicted 10% drop in the QQQs is about 10 weeks.
What stocks have already shown significant drops that might indicate the start of the predicted 10% drop in the QQQs?
-Some stocks that have already shown significant drops include Adobe (down 14%), Palantir (down 15%), Apple (down 15%), ASML (down 11%), Google (down 9%), Intel (down 16%), Meta (down 9%), Nvidia (down 8%), SMCI (down 9%), Snowflake (down 34%), and Apollo Global Management (down 24%).
How does the speaker encourage participation and contribution from the audience?
-The speaker encourages participation and contribution by inviting the audience to share their opinions and knowledge, emphasizing that it's a team sport and that collective knowledge can lead to better investment decisions.
What does the speaker suggest for those interested in joining the community for stock discussions?
-The speaker suggests visiting their website, Best of Us Investors, and signing up for the Platinum level to access resources like the charting tool used in the analysis, with a 50% discount for the next 90 days.
Outlines
📉 Market Prediction and Personal Opinion
The speaker shares a personal prediction that the QQQs will experience a 10% drop by May 20th, similar to what might happen to the DOW and S&P. They emphasize that this is an opinion, not financial advice, and explain their reasoning based on a stock talk from the previous day. The speaker references a funnel chart that indicates a historical pattern of market drops after a rise. They use past performance from 2022 as a basis for their extrapolation of a 10% drop and invite others to share their opinions in the comments.
📊 Analysis of Market Trends and Corrections
The speaker continues their analysis by discussing the trend of stocks on an upward trend, characterized by higher highs and lows, and how a funnel forms as the market prepares to correct. They reference historical data points from 2020 and recent market behavior to support their prediction of a 10% drop over 10 weeks. The speaker also highlights the importance of identifying market corrections and provides examples of prominent stocks that have already experienced significant drops, suggesting the start of the predicted 10% market correction.
🤝 Inviting Community Insight and Collaboration
The speaker concludes by reiterating their belief in the importance of sharing knowledge and opinions within a community of investors. They emphasize that investing is a team sport and encourage others to contribute their insights and experiences. The speaker provides information on how to join their community and offers a discount for their trading views chart, which they believe is essential for investors. They sign off as a retired financial adviser looking to help others make better investment decisions through shared knowledge.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡QQQs
💡Dal
💡S&P
💡Market Correction
💡Funnel Chart
💡Artificial Intelligence (AI)
💡Machine Learning
💡Candlesticks
💡Trend Lines
💡Belly Button
💡Stock Talk
💡Investing
Highlights
The QQQs are predicted to go down by about 10% between now and May 20th.
This prediction also applies to the DAX and the S&P.
The speaker emphasizes that everyone has the right to an opinion, a belief instilled from a young age.
The discussion is based on a stock talk from the previous day, where a funnel chart was presented by a swing trading expert.
The funnel chart shows that the market historically drops a percentage of its rise when it falls below the lower line of the funnel.
The speaker plans to share their opinion on why they believe there will be a 10% drop and how long it might take.
The speaker references a previous run-up in QQQs from March 2020, which led to a significant drop after 96 weeks.
The speaker uses a trading views chart to illustrate their points and offers a discount for access to such charting tools.
Stocks on an upward trend typically have higher highs and higher lows, but a funnel forms when they're about to correct.
The speaker provides historical data to support their prediction, including a 38% drop over 38 weeks in a previous market cycle.
The speaker notes a recent break in the trend line tracking the higher lows over the preceding 12 weeks, suggesting the start of a potential downturn.
The speaker expects a 10% drop over the next 10 weeks based on their calculations and historical patterns.
The speaker invites others to share their opinions in the comments, recognizing that the market doesn't just go straight up but corrects as well.
Prominent stocks like Adobe, Palantir, Apple, and others have already experienced significant drops, which may signal the start of the predicted 10% drop.
The speaker emphasizes the importance of learning from the past and contributing to a collective knowledge base for better investment decisions.
The speaker invites listeners to join their 'tribe' for shared knowledge and insights, offering a discount for the Platinum level of their service.
The speaker concludes by encouraging participation in their community for a team sport approach to investing.
Transcripts
that's right between today and may the
20th uh the qqqs are going to go down
some 10% I suspect that'll also happen
to the Dal in the S&P but because I have
a belly button I am have the right to
have an opinion this is something I was
taught at a very young age anybody who
has a belly button has the right to have
an opinion and that's all this is this
is not Financial advice this is my
opinion and what I'm going to do is
share with you how I came to that
opinion it all evolved from our stock
talk yesterday that is Friday when some
someone said well what what is the
prediction or what is the outlook for
the market in the future and Mark our
our swing trading expert showed us a
funnel that uh shows that as as the
funnel Narrows and then it drops below
the lower line it historically drops uh
a percentage of what it has rised I'll
show you that on on my computer because
I believe that we have run up and I can
go back to uh 2022 and I can show you
where it's happened again and through
some extrapolation I've come up with the
10% drop because I believe we still have
a strong Market that is being driven by
artificial intelligence and machine
learning of the future but we are going
to have a correction and I want to show
you why I believe it is uh going to be
10%
and I can tell you how long it's going
to take in order for it to hit that 10%
and then you because you have a belly
button you can go into the comments and
give me your opinion of my opinion I'll
take you right now to the
[Music]
computer best of us investors presents
Carrie
[Music]
GM okay this is my trading views chart U
if you want access to this kind of
charting which I think is a must for any
investor there's a discount to it in the
description that you can find what I've
done is I've taken something that we
talked about uh just yesterday in our
stock talk uh about how to track stocks
and how to predict movements and you've
probably heard that stocks on an upward
Trend will have higher highs and higher
lows that is to say these candlesticks
will have higher highs and they move up
up and then and they'll have higher lows
which also gives you a trend but they
move within a um a trend there's a
upward Trend both on the higher high and
the higher low but as they get to the
point where they're going to turn and
correct they they a funnel occurs and
the lower the higher lows get closer to
the higher highs and as you can see
starting back here in um March of 2020
we had a uh 96 we runup in the qqqs
which amounted to a 245 per run up over
96 weeks and then uh the candlesticks
dropped below the higher low trend line
and dropped and it it it dropped for 36
weeks or 38 weeks and oddly enough it
dropped
38% okay so it came down and then when
it hit its its low which was right there
it then reversed and started more higher
highs and higher lows and then created
another um funnel which lasted for 43
weeks and it went up
145% now as I said this drop was 38%
over 38 weeks and oddly enough then
proportionately you can do the
mathematics this dropped 12% over 12
weeks this is weird but this is what it
shows 38% drop over a 38 we period 245
per rise over a 96 week 145 over a 45
week this
proportion holds true okay so now we
entered the period uh starting in um
roughly August of 2023 where it came
down
12% right for over 12 weeks and then
turned and went up uh
120% in 20 weeks and I don't know that
it would this is an indication but yes
just this last week it broke that line
tracking the higher lows of the
preceding 12 weeks now it may bounce
right back up but if I'm right and in
fact this is a start down it's going to
it's going to drop 10% based on our
calculations here over the next 10 weeks
okay so that brings us to about May the
20th so that's my logic and and again
this is my opinion which is granted to
me by God by virtue of me having a belly
button you can have a similar or a
conflicting opinion and I invite you to
share it with me because what what this
whole game is all about is figuring out
from past history what is likely to
happen we know from past history the
market doesn't just go straight up it
goes up and then it corrects the key is
to figure out when it's going to correct
and this may or may not be accurate but
based on going back to 2020 and I could
go back further and we could see this
same thing every everybody knows higher
highs and higher lows until it turns and
you have lower highs and lower lows
until it turns again and I think there
is a turn where it dropped below the uh
higher lows and there it happened again
just this last week this is a weekly
chart let's put it on a
daily and see what it looks
like okay there you have it there is the
line now we're looking at a daily chart
and you can see that we can probably
tighten this up a bit and bring that
down and we can probably tighten this up
a
bit and we can see we just had a
Candlestick closed below the lower lows
now what's critical is what happens this
week if it drops
again we're probably going to have my
10% drop or maybe more but I think the
natural trend is that the market is
going to continue to go up but this will
present a buying opportunity we can look
at some some very prominent stocks and
we can see that this may have already
started uh Adobe dropped 14% this last
week um Palante tier is down 15% from
its H High Apple is down uh 15% from its
high whereas Amazon is only down 3% asml
is down 11 Google is down nine um uh
Intel is down 16 meta is down nine micro
U Nvidia is down eight smci is down nine
and yet then Tesla from its high is down
40 snowflake is down 34 and um Apollo
Alon networks is down 24 so this is what
is these are those are all in the qqq's
and you can see this may be the start of
our 10% drop there it is there is where
I think it I need to move that over to
there and that's about where it's going
to happen somewhere in the let's see I
said it's going to be about
May um May right in
there that's when this should probably
Trail down to here and we'll have a 10%
correction that's my opinion that's all
it is but it's my right my god-given
right and I want to share that with you
this is what we talk about in our stock
talk these are the kind of learnings
that we share and again it's it it's I I
think that it's like I said in in the
the stock talk this is a team sport it's
not just me trying to to to uh beat the
market it's me Gathering Knowledge from
other people who bring their learnings
and their life experiences and their
knowledge and say hey that Candlestick
may just have signaled us the turn that
we're all expecting in this market and
maybe these numbers have given us an
idea of what that might amount to so I
hope this helps you I hope this is
something you want to be a part of and
you come join our team because not only
do I want you to learn from our tribe
that's what we call it uh um and get on
the bus but I want you to contribute I
want you to say hey this is what I know
I got an email just the other day from a
guy I I'm very high on semiconductors
and data centers got to from from one of
my tribe members hey I work in a Data
Center and this is what we're seeing and
this is what we're doing
and and this is the kind of equipment
we're buying and this is the troubles
that we're dealing with and that's
valuable knowledge that you and I won't
we won't see it in the newspaper we
won't see it on CNBC but if we get a
large enough group of people who have a
common interest and want to have a good
time making money well then it's a team
sport and it's a good sport so what you
need to do if you want to be a part of
this is get on the bus you go to my
website best of us investors you sign up
for the the Platinum level you'll find a
coupon in the description that will give
you a 50% discount for the next 90 days
because I want you to learn just like I
learned at our stock talk how to create
this chart which gives me an insight as
to what might happen in the future is it
right is it wrong I don't know but I
will know in 10 weeks okay I'm Carrie
grink I'm a retired financial adviser I
just want to help you and me make better
investment Decisions by sharing our
knowledge talk to you again probably
[Music]
tomorrow
[Music]
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