What outperforms in a recession??

Summary

Dieses Wochen-Finanzmarkt-Update bietet einen umfassenden Überblick über wichtige Marktentwicklungen: Ein gemischter Start für Aktien, mögliche Rezession, geopolitische Spannungen mit Iran und Israel, sowie Analysen zu Rohstoffen und Wechselkursen. Es geht um Inflationsdaten, Rohölpreisschwankungen, Goldrekord und den Einfluss auf Hedge-Fonds. Zudem werden saisonale Trends und potenzielle Handelsstrategien für eine Rezession diskutiert, um Marktteilnehmer für die kommenden Entwicklungen zu wappnen.

Takeaways

• 📈 Der Aktienmarkt hat einen gemischten Start in die Woche, mit Schwerpunkt auf den AO-Aktien und der Frage, ob wir bereits in einer Rezession sind.
• 💣 Die Gefahren eines Konflikts zwischen dem Iran und Israel, mit möglichen Angriffen auf Öl und damit verbundenen Preissteigerungen sowie Rekordhöhen für Gold.
• 📊 Wichtige wirtschaftliche Daten werden in der kommenden Woche veröffentlicht, einschließlich PPI-Inflation, CPI-Inflation, Einzelhandelsdaten und der Verbrauchersentiment-Umfrage.
• 🏢 Große Einzelhändler wie Home Depot, Walmart, Alibaba und JD.com werden in dieser Woche ihr Quartalsgeschäfts Ergebnis veröffentlichen.
• 📝 Die neuesten Bewegungen der Hedge-Fonds werden mit der Einreichung ihrer Form 13F am Mittwoch bekannt gegeben, was wichtige Hinweise auf ihre Handelsentscheidungen im vorherigen Quartal gibt.
• 🔍 Die Reaktion des Iran auf die Ereignisse in der Region und die möglichen Auswirkungen auf den Aktienmarkt und Rohstoffeinzelhandel werden in der kommenden Woche beobachtet.
• 📉 Die Marktanalyse zeigt, dass trotz des Rückgangs der Volatilität und der Anpassung der Bond-Kurse, die Marktlage immer noch unsicher ist, insbesondere in Bezug auf die Öl- und Goldmärkte.
• 🤔 Die Diskussion um die Rezessionschancen und welche Handelsstrategien möglicherweise gut abschneiden könnten, wenn eine Rezession eintritt, einschließlich der Rolle von Gold und Zinsanleihen.
• 💻 Die Bedeutung der AI-Booms und der Ausgaben von Tech-Unternehmen für AI-Infrastruktur, und wie diese Ausgaben in zukünftigen Quartalen Gewinne erzeugen müssen, um den Markt zufriedenzustellen.
• 🌐 Die Vorherrschaft der USA in Bezug auf Datenzentren und ihre Auswirkungen auf die globale Technologie-Landschaft und Stromverbrauch.
• 🚀 Die Erwartungen für die zukünftigen Ergebnisse von NVIDIA und die Rolle von GPU-Chip-Herstellern in der AI-Industrie.

Q & A

Was ist der Hauptthema des heutigen Finanzmarktberichts?

Der Hauptthema des Berichts ist die gemischte Start für Märkte, die Möglichkeit einer Rezession, die Situation im Nahen Osten, insbesondere was das Potenzial für einen Angriff des Iran auf Israel betrifft, sowie die Auswirkungen auf Rohstoffmärkte wie Öl und Gold.

Welche wirtschaftlichen Daten werden in dieser Woche veröffentlicht?

In dieser Woche werden PPI-Inflation, CPI-Inflation, Einzelhandelsdaten und eine Verbrauchersentiment-Umfrage veröffentlicht.

Welche großen Einzelhändler werden in dieser Woche ihr Ergebnis veröffentlichen?

Home Depot, Walmart, Alibaba, JD.com und einige kleinere amerikanische Einzelhändler werden in dieser Woche ihr Ergebnis veröffentlichen.

Was ist der Signifikanz der Veröffentlichung der Form 13F für Hedge-Fonds?

Die Veröffentlichung der Form 13F ist wichtig, da Hedge-Fonds innerhalb von 45 Tagen nach dem Ende des Quartals ihre Handelsaktivitäten im vorherigen Quartal mitteilen müssen. Dies gibt Einblicke in die Handelsstrategien der größten Hedge-Fonds wie Pershing Square von Bill Ackman.

Was könnte die Entwicklung im Nahen Osten für die Finanzmärkte bedeuten?

Eine Eskalation der Situation im Nahen Osten, insbesondere ein möglicher Angriff des Iran auf Israel, könnte die Finanzmärkte beeinflussen, indem sie Unsicherheit schafft, den VIX erhöht und möglicherweise zu einem Anstieg von Öl- und Goldpreisen führt.

Was zeigt die historische Datenanalyse, wenn die VIX über 50 steigt?

Historisch gesehen, wenn die VIX über 50 steigt, ist es in 91 Fällen der Fall, dass der S&P 500 ein Jahr später höher liegt, was auf eine Anreicherung der Marktfurcht hinweist, die aber im Laufe des Jahres abnimmt.

Wie wirkt sich eine positive Leistung des S&P 500 im ersten Halbjahr des Jahres auf das zweite Halbjahr aus?

Wenn der S&P 500 im ersten Halbjahr um mehr als 10% steigt, endet das zweite Halbjahr in der Regel positiv, insbesondere in Zeiten der Föderalreservepolitik, die nach dem Schwarzen Montag 1987 eingeführt wurde.

Was könnte die Rezession für den Aktienmarkt bedeuten und welche Strategien könnten angewendet werden?

Eine Rezession könnte zu einem Rückgang des Aktienmarkts führen. Strategien zur Abdeckung des Risikos könnten die Anlage in US-Bundesanleihen sein, die von einer Senkung der Zinssätze profitieren, oder in Gold, das sowohl bei Inflation als auch Deflation eine Schutzfunktion erfüllt.

Was ist die Rolle von Nvidia in der aktuellen AI-Boom-Situation?

Nvidia ist ein wichtiger Lieferant von AI-Infrastruktur wie GPU-Chips und Datenzentren. Sie müssen den Markt nun überzeugen, dass ihre Investitionen in AI-Infrastruktur in zukünftigen Quartalen und Jahren in Gewinne umgesetzt werden können.

Welche Faktoren könnten einen möglichen Krieg zwischen dem Iran und Israel auslösen?

Ein möglicher Krieg könnte durch eine Eskalation von Provokationen seitens des Irans ausgelöst werden, insbesondere wenn dieser signifikanten Schaden an Israel verursacht oder wenn Israel entscheidet, eine entschiedene Antwort auf die Provokationen zu geben.

Was ist die Beziehung zwischen der Inversion des Bond-Yield-Curves und der Rezession?

Eine Inversion des Bond-Yield-Curves, wie die Differenz zwischen den Zinsen für 10-jährige und 2-jährige US-Bundesanleihen, kann oft als Indikator für eine kommende Rezession innerhalb von 6 bis 12 Monaten gewertet werden.

Wie beeinflusst die Cyber-Sicherheit die Aktienmärkte?

Die Cyber-Sicherheit ist eine der Hauptbedenken der CEOS, was auf eine wachsende Nachfrage nach Cyber-Sicherheitsaktien hindeutet und somit die Wichtigkeit dieser Branche im Aktienmarkt hervorhebt.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Finanzmarkt-Update: Mischung aus Märkten, Wirtschaftsdaten und geopolitischen Spannungen

Dieses Kapitel bietet einen Überblick über die aktuellen Entwicklungen in den Finanzmärkten, einschließlich der PPI-Inflation, die am Anfang der Woche erwartet wird, gefolgt von den wichtigeren CPI-Daten, die am Mittwoch veröffentlicht werden. Es geht auch um den Einfluss von Einzelhandelsdaten, der Konsumsentwicklung und der Aktionen von Hedge-Fonds, die in der zweiten Quartalseinreichung offenbart werden. Zudem werden die geopolitischen Spannungen im Nahen Osten und ihre Auswirkungen auf Rohstoffmärkte diskutiert, einschließlich des Anstiegs von Öl- und Goldpreisen infolge der drohenden iranischen Bedrohungen gegenüber Israel.

05:02

📉 Analyse der Marktbewegungen und der Auswirkungen auf den AI-Boom

Dieser Abschnitt präsentiert eine Analyse der aktuellen Marktbewegungen, einschließlich der Rückkehr der S&P 500 zu höheren Hochs und der Beobachtung, dass der Markt möglicherweise auf eine weitere Umkehrung hinwirken könnte, besonders wenn es extreme CPI-Daten oder geopolitische Überraschungen gibt. Es wird auch auf die Bedeutung der AI-Infrastruktur-Ausgaben durch Tech-Unternehmen und deren Auswirkungen auf den Aktienmarkt eingegangen, sowie auf die Notwendigkeit, dass diese Unternehmen einen Rücksprung ihrer Investitionen zeigen müssen, um den Markt nicht zu enttäuschen.

10:03

🌐 Globale Datenzentren und ihre Bedeutung für die US-Außenpolitik

Dieses Kapitel untersucht die Rolle der Datenzentren in den Vereinigten Staaten im Vergleich zu anderen Ländern und zeigt, dass Amerika in Bezug auf Datenverarbeitungskapazität und -nutzung weit vor der Welt liegt. Es geht auch um die Auswirkungen dieser Dominanz auf den Stromverbrauch und die Rolle von Technologieunternehmen, die inzwischen mehr Energie verbrauchen als ganze Länder. Zudem werden die Auswirkungen der bevorstehenden Inflation und der möglichen Zinssenkungen durch die FED auf die Finanzmärkte diskutiert.

15:05

💣 Nahost-Spannungen und ihre Auswirkungen auf die Finanzmärkte

Dieses Kapitel konzentriert sich auf die anhaltenden Spannungen im Nahen Osten und die Erwartungen, dass Iran möglicherweise einen Angriff auf Israel plant, was die Finanzmärkte beeinträchtigen könnte. Es wird auf die möglichen Auswirkungen dieses Konflikts auf Öl- und Goldmärkte und die damit verbundene Unsicherheit in den Finanzmärkten eingegangen. Zudem werden die langfristigen Auswirkungen einer möglichen Rezession und die Rolle von Gold als Schutz vor Inflation und Deflation diskutiert.

🏢 CEO-Bedenken und ihre Auswirkungen auf die Wirtschaft

Abschließend werden die Bedenken von CEOs aufgezeigt, die hauptsächlich durch Cyberangriffe und geopolitische Instabilität geprägt sind, und wie diese Bedenken die Wirtschaft und die Aktienmärkte beeinflussen könnten. Es wird auch auf die Bedeutung von Cyber-Sicherheitsaktien und die Prioritäten der Führungsspitzen in Bezug auf neue Technologien und wirtschaftliche Risiken eingegangen.

Keywords

💡Recesssion

Eine Rezession ist eine periodische Verlangsamung der Wirtschaftsaktivitäten, die normalerweise durch eine Verringerung des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) in zwei aufeinanderfolgenden Quartalen definiert wird. Im Video wird die Möglichkeit einer Rezession diskutiert, die durch verschiedene Faktoren wie Inflation, geopolitische Unruhen und Unternehmensgewinne beeinflusst werden könnte. Ein Beispiel aus dem Skript ist die Diskussion über die Chancen auf eine Rezession im nächsten Jahr, was Auswirkungen auf den Handel haben könnte.

💡Inflation

Inflation bezieht sich auf die allgemeine Steigerung der Preisniveaus von Gütern und Dienstleistungen über die Zeit. Im Video wird erwähnt, dass die PPI (Produktpreisindex) und CPI (Verbraucherpreisindex) Daten, die für die Beurteilung der Inflation wichtig sind, veröffentlicht werden. Die Erwartungen für diese Indikatoren sind im Skript diskutiert, und es wird auf die potenziellen Auswirkungen einer hohen oder niedrigen Inflation auf die Märkte und die Wirtschaft eingegangen.

💡Marktstart

Ein Marktstart beschreibt die Anfangsphase des Handels an einem Börsenplatz an einem bestimmten Tag. Im Kontext des Videos bezieht sich 'mixed start' auf die uneinheitliche Entwicklung der Aktienmärkte zu Beginn der Handelswoche, was durch verschiedene Faktoren wie wirtschaftliche Daten oder geopolitische Ereignisse beeinflusst werden kann.

💡Währungsumrechnung

Währungsumrechnung ist der Prozess, bei dem Beträge in eine andere Währung umgerechnet werden. Im Video wird dies impliziert, wenn es um globale Wirtschaftsverbindungen und den Einfluss von Wirtschaftsdaten aus verschiedenen Ländern auf die Währungen geht, insbesondere in Bezug auf den chinesischen Markt und die erwähnten Unternehmen wie Alibaba und JD.com.

💡Hedge-Fonds

Hedge-Fonds sind spezialisierte Investmentfonds, die häufig mit einer Mischung aus Aggressivität und Risikokapital investieren und oft Verwendung von Leverage, Short-Selling und anderer Alternativen zur Diversifikation und zum Erzielen von Gewinnen machen. Im Video wird erwähnt, dass die neuesten Bewegungen von Hedge-Fonds, die in Form 13F-Geldern veröffentlicht werden, für die Beobachtung der Marktbewegungen und -trends wichtig sind.

💡Commodity Markets

Rohstoffmärkte sind Märkte, auf denen physische Güter wie Öl, Gold oder landwirtschaftliche Erzeugnisse gehandelt werden. Im Video werden Rohstoffmärkte in den Kontext von geopolitischen Spannungen und ihren Auswirkungen auf die Preise eingebettet, insbesondere wenn es um den möglichen Einfluss des Nahen Ostens auf diese Märkte geht.

💡Handelskonflikte

Handelskonflikte beziehen sich auf wirtschaftliche Auseinandersetzungen zwischen Ländern, die sich in Form von Handelsbeschränkungen, Zöllen oder anderen Handelshemmnissen manifestieren können. Im Video wird die Möglichkeit eines Handelskonflikts zwischen verschiedenen Ländern und seinen möglichen Einfluss auf die wirtschaftlichen Märkte und -daten diskutiert.

💡AI-Boom

Der AI-Boom beschreibt die rapide Ausweitung und Anwendung von Künstlicher Intelligenz (KI) in verschiedenen Wirtschaftsbereichen. Im Video wird die Rolle des AI-Booms in der Unterstützung der Wirtschaft und den Aktienmärkten hervorgehoben, insbesondere durch die Investitionen von Unternehmen in AI-Infrastruktur wie GPU-Chips und Rechenzentren.

💡Datenschutz

Datenschutz bezieht sich auf die Prävention und Kontrolle der unbefugten Nutzung personenbezogener Daten. Im Video wird die zunehmende Besorgnis der CEOS über Cyberangriffe hervorgehoben, was die Wichtigkeit von Datenschutzstrategien und -technologien betont, um solche Bedrohungen abzuwehren.

💡Gold

Gold ist ein wertvolles, edles Metall, das als traditioneller Zufluchtsort für Investoren in Zeiten der Unsicherheit und Inflation dient. Im Video wird die aktuelle Goldpreiserholung und die Hervorhebung seiner Rolle als Schutz vor potenziellen wirtschaftlichen Schwankungen und Inflation diskutiert, einschließlich der historischen Korrelation zwischen Gold und Aktienmärkten.

Highlights

Mixed start for markets with potential time bomb stocks and recession concerns.

Iran possibly on the verge of attacking, causing oil prices to rise and gold to hit record highs.

Key economic data releases this week include PPI inflation data, CPI inflation data, retail sales, and consumer sentiment survey.

Major retailers like Home Depot, Walmart, Alibaba, and JD.com will report earnings this week.

Hedge funds' latest movements to be revealed through Form 13F filings, providing insights into Q2 trades.

Markets are reacting to geopolitical tensions, particularly the potential for a large-scale attack by Iran on Israel.

Technical analysis of S&P 500 shows higher highs and higher lows, indicating a potential market turnaround.

VIX above 50 indicates maximum fear, with historical data showing a positive S&P 500 performance a year later.

S&P 500's performance in the first half of the year suggests a likely positive outcome in the second half, especially in an election year.

Corporate earnings are better than expected, not causing market pullbacks.

Seasonality trends show similarities to last year's market movements, with potential for a pullback into late October.

Investor positioning and market insurance costs suggest caution and a potential market pullback.

AI boom and tech spending have been key drivers of the bull market, with NVIDIA as a significant beneficiary.

Data centers in the US significantly outnumber those globally, indicating American exceptionalism in AI and computing power.

Inflation expectations and geopolitical tensions may dominate market headlines and movements this week.

Gold's performance and central banks' demand suggest it as a potential hedge against economic uncertainties.

CEOs are more concerned about cybersecurity attacks than a recession, indicating a strong tailwind for cybersecurity stocks.

Iran's potential military actions and the global response could significantly impact markets and commodities.

Transcripts

coming up today a mixed start for

markets our AO stocks a time bomb are we

already in a recession Iran about to

attack oil rips higher gold hits record

highs the trade that can outperform in

our recession and I get you all prepped

for another big week in financial

markets let's have a good one

[Music]

guys and good evening good morning good

afternoon wherever you are joining me in

the world today hope you're feeling good

and ready for another big week in

financial markets we've got quite a lot

going on this week kicking off tomorrow

PPI inflation data heading into

Wednesday biggest one of the week CPI

inflation data we got a look at retail

sales on Thursday and the consumer

sediment survey on Friday and it's

retail week not only we're going to get

a look at retail sales data we got a

number of big key retailers reporting

earnings this week Home Depot tomorrow

Thursday we'll get to hear from Walmart

and a few Chinese ones as well Alibaba

jd.com and a few smaller American

retailers throughout the week we also

get a look at hedge funds latest

movements Wednesday afternoon with their

form 13 FD to be filed they've always

got 45 days after the end of the quarter

to let us know what trades they made in

the previous quarter so most of them

will file right at the end of that

deadline so I'll keep you guys updated

this week and want some of the biggest

hedge funds out there like Bill Amman

from persan Square what his moves have

been in Q2 along with a number of other

key hedge funds we'll take a look at

later on this week another key event

this week is we're waiting for Iran's

response and supposedly a large scale

attack on Israel it's already getting

markets moving to start off the week

I'll dive into this a bit later and then

we'll look at the commodity markets been

affected by that as well I'll also give

you an interesting look at some year-to

dat seasonality and we'll also talk

about the chances of a recession

happening and what sort of trade could

outperform if that does happen first off

let me just give you a quick bird's eye

view of the technical price action we're

getting across key markets to start the

week high highs higher lows in S&P 500

on a typical quiet low range day Market

does appear to be calling up after

bounced off that really sharp gap down

last Monday morning can see my wave

flowing IND at here starting to coil up

Market could be getting ready to turn

over again especially if we get a hot

CPI print or things in the Middle East

spill overboard as well bre's not the

best here looking at volume breath we

still have more than half of all stocks

above their 50-day average but we're

also getting more stocks hitting 52 we

lows and 52e highs still got a little

backwardation in the volatility term

structure nday higher than the vix

30-day option dealers pricing in a bit

of volatility this week probably with

CPI data and Iran good news is we've

still got volatility risk premium down

near zero bond market volatility is

elevated as is oil and gold market

volatility starting to break out as well

start off the week we got bond yield

stable two year at 4% 10 year at 390

we'll be looking for this 380 level to

be defended high Y old bonds still

holding up above their 50-day vwap the

Yen looks to have calmed down as well

keep an eye on the Japanese Yen this

week after the big scare to start off

last week was based on the Japanese Yen

there's a look at Bitcoin $59,000 to

start the week like I said I'll come

back to Gold later which hit a new

all-time high today and pretty good

bounce and crude oil now back above its

50-day vwap and just looking across

sectors it was mostly bearish out there

today of course gold mine is doing the

best little bounce there in energy

stocks with crude and still a little bit

of a defensive rotation got utility

still holding up well but first let's

just look at some data research and

headlin that you guys enjoy learning

about the first is what happens when the

vix goes above 50 like we saw this time

last week and shut up to 65 well this

chart's a little blurry but basically

it's happened 92 times before and

believe it or not 91 times there's some

p500 is higher a year later but what you

also see like we quite often see in

volatility Market is clustering back in

2008 2020 we can get multiple days even

stretching out over multiple weeks when

the vix is above 50 however does

indicate maximum fear and the difference

about this time compared to last times

is this was really more isolated

fundamentals is not as bad and it was

kind of strange almost having that sharp

vix Spike when the markets had just hit

alltime highs however another good stat

here from fun Strat is when the S&P 500

is up more than 10% in the first half of

the year which we've got this year most

of the time the second half will finish

positive as well especially in the era

of the fed put first introduced by

Greenspan 1987 after Black Monday in

which we' got a lot of other changes in

financial market around those mid late '

80s electrification amongst other things

you could kind of think of financial

markets really been modernized in the

mid late 80s since then the second half

has always finished higher when we're up

by more than 10% in the first half and

we are having a really good election

year we're up over over 177% coming into

July got a bit ahead of ourselves had a

bit of a healthy pullback we still could

have more to go remember that low back

in April in S&P was just below 5,000 so

if we got back to 5,000 that would take

us back in line to where we normally are

around this time of year in an election

year and see that bit of softness from

August through October normally we can

find a bottom around here rally into

Christmas and politically this is a

similar year to 1968 when lynon Johnson

pulled out of the presidential election

race just like we saw Biden pull out on

the 22nd of July and ever since then the

odds polls popularity of Camila Harris

has shot right up according to

mainstream media a lot of the Trump

trade in small caps Bitcoin in other

areas has had a sharp pullback along

with the market but of course there's

been other things attributed to that as

well Japanese Yen unwind maybe what's

going on in the Middle East however as

far as corporate earnings that's

actually coming better than expected so

the Market's not pulling back on a worse

than expected QT earnings season there

has to be other things going on looking

at some more seasonality we're tracking

very similar to last year ried up into

Late July pulled back into late October

we could be following that similar path

again and there is something about

August looking back in history you can

see these large external events with S&P

500 having some sharp intram mon draw

Downs in this month of August so we may

not have seen the worst of it just yet a

lot of investors have been spooked out

based on last week's events we can see

that in Consolidated Equity positioning

nearing highs bit over a week ago

however that's sharply pulled back into

underweight already a lot of them

investors did not buy the dip and in

fact they've bailed on this Market we

also saw that in a sharp rise for the

demand for stock market insurance cost

of hedging S&P 500 puts shot up last

week see that in the put core ratios and

quite elevated implied volatility

especially for out of the money puts and

can you imagine if we don't go into a

recession in the next 3 6 n months then

the market awakens to that reality and

in that time inflation has stayed low

and the fed's been able to pull back

interest rates what do you think's going

to happen to that over 6 trillion in

record money market funds people just

earning interest when they see their

Interest come down every month every

quarter lower interest repayments lower

interest repayments and they don't see

the stock market go down maybe it's

going up maybe they can still find

stocks yielding four or 5% there could

be a lot of dry powder ready to come

back into the stock market however a big

part of this bull market hinges on what

got us here in the first place we very

well may have had a recession last year

if it wasn't for the AI boom and a huge

amount of spending by cash flush tech

companies on AI infrastructure and for

sure there's risks depreciation one of

them companies that have spent huge on

AI infrastructure GPU chips data centers

they've got to prove to investors that's

going to result in some profits in the

quarters and year or two ahead investors

want to see a return on their investment

we don't want to see these assets being

depreciated with their marketto market

value going down more than the profits

they are generating cuz these gpus don't

last forever there's new ones coming out

all the time and so this is something

the market still skeptical about it's

good news for NVIDIA the pick and shovel

supplier of this AI boom but for all the

companies buying all that they need to

show some profits pretty soon otherwise

the market might get upset with that and

we'll get to hear from Nvidia bit later

on this month as they'll be reporting

earnings on the 28th and they should

easily meet analyst expectations if not

exceed them just as they have been for a

few years now companies are still

spending big on their gpus wall Street

still very bullish still selling a lot

of h100s they've already got their next

Generation Blackwell chips lined up

plenty more Runway ahead of and there's

a look at the price action in Nvidia

holding this support box from its last

earnings Gap up unless expecting 64

cents per share later this month current

market cap 2.68 trillion it's Fallen

below apple and Microsoft after it

briefly overtook them bit over a month

ago and you see all those charts of

America's stock market compared to the

rest of the world and you think surely

they've got to converge and whilst that

may happen I don't expect any major

convergence in fact American

exceptionalism may not be declining it

may actually be accelerating and one of

the best visualizations of that is just

looking at the number of data centers in

the United States versus the rest of the

world

5,381 second highest Germany 521 United

Kingdom 514 China 449 Canada 336 in fact

America has more data centers than the

rest of the world combined that's more

computing power that's more capacity to

do a lot of things and so America is

Head and Shoulders above the world when

it comes to Ai and compute and

processing power out there that's even

starting to show up in a chart of

electricity consumption with American

tech companies now starting to overtake

entire countries with the amount of

electricity they consume and that's

thanks to those data centers AI uses a

huge amount of electricity we now got

Google and Microsoft using more power

than Jordan Iceland Ghana Puerto Rico

and Croatia meta and apple On The Rise

as well however AI Mega cap Tech

earnings and the jobs Market will have

to take a bit of a backseat this week up

front and center is inflation starting

off produce a prices index tomorrow

expected to have risen 0.2% % in July

compared to 0.4% in June that would give

us a good year-over-year of 2.7% down

from 3% in the 12 months through June

then on Wednesday we'll get the big one

CPI just looking at Wall Street Bank

forecasts they're expecting month over

month to be 0.2% year-over-year 3% and

if that comes in as expected along with

Goldman Sachs that are still tracking Q2

GDP growth at 2.5% and they expect Q3 to

come in at 2.6% with a trade deficit

narrowing and if we get continued signs

of disinflation well we've still got

Financial stress and condition indices

relatively loose then it may just be the

green light for JP to go ahead and trim

the FED funds rate by 25 basis points as

I'd still give about a 70% chance of it

happening I'd say there might even be

more chance he stays on Paws than Cuts

50 basis point and just looking at the

2-year yield whilst there has been a lot

of volatility of late real sharp

repricing pretty much a tantrum by the

bond market I'll be paying attention to

the price action in this after we get

PPI and CPI this week as we could get a

bit of repricing in the fed fund Futures

as well what could really dominate the

headlines and markets this week is

what's going on in the Middle East we're

expecting this last week looking like

Ira may be getting cold feet maybe they

were just gearing up for something even

bigger than what was expected and that

could very well be the case and this

could spook markets further give us

another spike in vix another pullback in

stocks and golden oil may be the only

places to hide out Israel military is on

high alert us is sending more and more

assets into the region potentially

gearing up for a big Showdown and

possibly an offensive Mission against

Iran as well if they cause significant

damage on Israel the West has promised

to response to Iran and so Iran looks to

be potentially rolling the dice here

they have a history of biting back like

I said think of themselves as a top dogs

of the Middle East however they've never

really had a taste of a good Western

response to these continued provocations

from them so it appears Iran is building

a similar posture to that of the prior

attack they did in April in the western

part of their country getting a lot of

missiles and other assets ready the key

things to watch for here is a can they

inflict any significant damage on Israel

will they take any lives will they

damage any key assets or infrastructure

in Israel and then if so how big a

response will Israel and the wests be

towards Iran or maybe they don't even

need to inflict any damage on Israel

maybe Israel's had enough and trying to

give measured responses back to Iran and

just take out their military leaders as

they've already proven they can do they

can easily strike within Iranian

territory they may just go ahead and

send a couple of hundred missiles back

themselves and and let Iran deal with

that either way it's spooking commodity

markets oil trading up that'll be

another key leading indicator to watch

this week to see how worried markets are

about what's happening over there also

got precious medals turning high with

gold breaking out to new record highs

and this is just after we heard a week

and a half ago that gold demand just hit

a record high in the second quarter that

is the amount of actual buying in the

market and that's thanks to Central Bank

who ever since the outbreak of the

Ukraine war started accumulating gold

like crazy and that's the bricks Nations

they us sanctions on Russia locking up

Russian assets outside of the country

and they're looking to hedge their bets

get out of the dollar and get their

reserves into gold where the US

government doesn't have leverage over

them and that's a trend that's unlikely

to change anytime soon either and so

coupled with the fact that we've got an

inverted bond yield curve that's the

difference between the 10e and the

2-year treasury bond yields screaming

back to uninverted territory which quite

often can mean a recession 6 to 12

months later coupled with elevated

geopolitics not to mention the

Resurgence in inflation as as well we

can see that in container ship still

racing up this year and the potential

for unemployment to keep climbing as

well just looking back in history at

previous recessions what you'll see with

unemployment and this happens a lot in

financial markets Trends can start

gradually then happen all of a sudden

similar to how a wave builds in the

ocean really slowly hits a cresendo and

falls over the same thing can happen in

markets so there is the real potential

for a recession I would say starting in

q1 or Q2 next year and so what's a way

to position for that or potentially

hedge that risk well yeah treasury bonds

can help interest rates being cut that's

a strong tailwind and who knows wouldn't

it be surprised if we actually got a bit

of deflation with the recession as well

prices started Contracting that's good

for treasury bonds they'll protect you

against deflation cuz you're locking in

your money at a certain period of time

and you'll get back the same principle

in the future however treasury bonds

aren't good for inflation that is if we

do get a Resurgence in inflation what's

good for both inflation and deflation is

gold and so just looking at the yield

curve here in the blue line if I always

overlay this chart with the spread

between gold Futures and S&P 500 futur

is in the orange line You'll see there

is quite a bit of correlation that is

when the orange Line's going up Gold's

outperforming stocks when the orange

Line's going down Gold's underperforming

stocks and if I just go out to a twoe

chart just to smooth this out a little

bit you can see that correlation between

the spread and golden stocks and the

yield curve so just going back in

history looking at the data we've got

here back in late 05 going to 2006 2007

the bond yield curve was inverted it

went uninverted and then gold started

outperforming stocks just as the yield

curve was climbing back as well that

went on for a number of years going back

again in the late '90s Bono curve went

inverted in 2000 went uninverted and

look what also followed it gold

outperformed stocks for quite a few

years going ahead as well so here we are

now with the inverted Bon yield curve

the expectation is that's going to go

uninverted and we could very well be in

a recession like I said q1 Q2 next year

looking back in history if that were the

case gold could significantly outperform

stocks the other good thing is if we

happen to get a Resurgence in inflation

which again most people not expecting

just looking at the chart here of

inflation in the states year-over-year

there's that first wave in the early mid

1970s and it rolled over fed thought we

were good started cutting rates again

caused a second and larger high wave in

inflation going into the late 70s early

80s and if I just overlay this chart

with gold followed a very similar path

that Resurgence of inflation in the late

70s gone into the early 80s saw a

massive bull market in gold in fact

inflation adjusted we still haven't

taken out that high from back in 1979 so

the point is with all this backdrop gold

could be a good place to be in the

coming years it's why I have exposure in

it and I'm likely to keep adding

exposure to it as well and just looking

at a recent survey of CEOs and the

things they're really worried about here

in the blue bar is their most recent

reading in the orange from a year ago

the number one thing they're most

worried about is cyber attacks and

that's a strong Tailwind for cyber

security stocks next on the list

geopolitical instability they're worried

about war legal and Regulatory

uncertainty Ai and new technology

financial and econom risks coming in at

number five so CEOs are not really

worried about a recession right here in

fact they're way more worried about a

cyber security attack on their company

and so that pretty much wraps it up guys

to get you all prepped for this week a

few key events the Market's hinging on

this week PPI tomorrow CPI Wednesday

couple of key earnings retail sales

Thursday anduma sent Friday then

probably the big one Iran how big are

they going to go on Israel how much

damage can they inflict what will be

Israel's and the West response and

potentially from that what will Russia

and China's response respon be to Israel

in the west and how much will they go in

there and try and back stop Iran and by

the end of the week we could be in a

fullscale war by Iran versus Israel

hopefully not but the balls really in

the Iranians caught Israel took out a

few of their military commanders Iran

could be about to send four 500 missiles

back in response and like I said the

Israel and the West may just have had

enough of it and want to put Iran in

their place I'll be paying attention to

it along with these other key economic

developments and of course as always the

price action that we get and markets

thanks very much for sticking with click

capital and I'll keep you updated all

throughout the week cheers