How Bad is the Tech Market Right Now
Summary
TLDRThe speaker discusses the challenging job market, particularly in tech, with layoffs and fierce competition even for experienced professionals. They mention the impact of AI on job expectations and the difficulty of getting noticed with thousands of applications. The speaker also touches on the potential benefits of lower interest rates for startups and the hope for improvement in the job market, emphasizing the importance of saving and being grateful for current employment.
Takeaways
- 💼 The speaker mentions a significant layoff at a large insurance company where they used to work, which has reduced its workforce from around 40,000 to 26,000 in just a few years.
- ⏳ The speaker left the company at what they consider the perfect time, as they likely would have been affected by the layoffs.
- 💻 Job hunting is difficult right now, with some people submitting hundreds of applications without success. The speaker mentions a tech sales professional who has been out of work for 18 months and has applied to 800-900 jobs.
- 👴 Age seems to be a significant factor in the job market, particularly in tech, where older workers face challenges securing new positions.
- 🔗 The speaker feels that personal referrals and recommendations on LinkedIn may not be very effective unless the referrer has significant influence within the company.
- 🏦 The speaker suggests that high federal interest rates are making it difficult for companies to borrow money for research and development, particularly in startups, which is stalling job creation.
- 📉 Generative AI and automation are expected to increase productivity by up to 50%, which may reduce the need for as many developers, potentially impacting tech job opportunities.
- 📊 The speaker observes that the tech job market is currently bleak, with increased competition and fewer opportunities, even for those with impressive resumes from top tech companies.
- ⚖️ Other industries, like law, are also facing tough job markets, suggesting that the issue isn't confined to tech alone.
- 💡 The speaker advises those who are currently employed to save money and invest in their 401(k), as the job market may remain challenging for several more years.
Q & A
What is the speaker's concern regarding the job market?
-The speaker is concerned about the difficulty of finding work, as evidenced by the layoffs at a large insurance company where they used to work, and the high number of applications people are submitting without success.
Why did the speaker leave their previous company?
-The speaker left their previous company at the right time, as they believe they would have likely been laid off due to the new CEO's decisions and the company's downsizing.
How has the company's workforce changed in recent years?
-The company's workforce has significantly reduced, going from around 40,000 employees to approximately 26,000 in just a couple of years.
What is the speaker's perspective on the impact of AI on the job market?
-The speaker suggests that the rise of AI, particularly generative AI, may increase productivity expectations, potentially leading to a reduced need for developers and intensifying job market competition.
What challenges does the speaker's friend in tech sales face?
-The friend has been out of work for about 18 months, having submitted 800 to 900 job applications without success, which the speaker attributes partly to his age being close to 60.
What role does the speaker believe employee referrals might play in the current job market?
-The speaker is unsure about the effectiveness of employee referrals, suggesting that having influence within a company to secure a job might be the only way to help others get hired in the current competitive market.
How does the speaker view the potential impact of interest rate changes on the job market?
-The speaker hopes that a drop in interest rates, as discussed for September, could spur more development and research, particularly benefiting startups, but acknowledges the current high rates make borrowing for investment too costly.
What is the speaker's opinion on the current state of the tech market?
-The speaker finds the tech market to be bleak, with fierce competition and even experienced professionals struggling to find jobs.
Why does the speaker consider staying in the DC region beneficial?
-The speaker values the DC region for its proximity to the federal government and the abundance of jobs in government contracting, which could be a fallback option if needed.
What advice does the speaker give to those currently employed?
-The speaker advises those with jobs to be grateful and to save money, especially in a 401(k), as a precaution against potential future job loss.
How does the speaker describe the current situation for professionals outside the tech industry?
-The speaker indicates that the job market is tough not just for tech professionals but for everyone, including their friend who is an attorney and is also struggling to find a job.
Outlines
📉 Job Market Challenges Amidst Layoffs and AI Advancements
The speaker reflects on the current job market, particularly for tech professionals, drawing from personal experience and anecdotes. They mention the impact of a new CEO on a large insurance company, leading to significant layoffs and downsizing. Despite leaving the company at a fortunate time, they express concern for friends who have struggled to find new employment, with one individual applying to nearly 900 positions without success. The speaker also discusses the potential for AI to increase productivity expectations, which could lead to a reduced need for developers. They conclude by expressing hope for improvement in the job market, but acknowledge the current challenges faced by both tech and non-tech professionals.
😟 The Bleak Outlook for Tech and Beyond: A Personal Perspective
In this paragraph, the speaker delves deeper into the difficulties of the current job market, emphasizing the fierce competition even for those with impressive resumes from renowned companies. They express concern about the future, especially as they age, and the potential need to rely on government contractor jobs due to the abundance of opportunities in the DC region. The speaker also shares their experience with government background checks and the decision to remain in the private sector. They acknowledge the broader impact on various professions, not just tech, and advise listeners to save money and be grateful for their current employment. The speaker concludes with a somber outlook for the next few years, suggesting that the situation will not improve soon and urging caution and preparedness.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Job Market
💡Layoffs
💡Insurance Company
💡Tech Sales
💡Age Discrimination
💡Employee Referral
💡Interest Rates
💡Generative AI
💡Productivity
💡Fierce Competition
💡Federal Government Jobs
💡Background Checks
Highlights
The speaker reflects on the job market, particularly for those in the tech industry, noting the challenges faced by many.
Mention of a large insurance company that has undergone significant layoffs, reducing its workforce by thousands.
The impact of a new CEO on company culture and job security, leading to the speaker's decision to leave.
Personal anecdotes about friends struggling to find employment despite extensive experience.
The speaker's observation of the high number of job applications and the difficulty of securing interviews.
Concerns about ageism in the tech industry, with older workers facing greater challenges in finding jobs.
The potential ineffectiveness of LinkedIn recommendations and referrals in a highly competitive job market.
Speculation on how interest rates might affect job creation and the economy, with potential implications for startups.
The impact of high federal interest rates on the ability of companies to invest in research and development.
The drying up of investment opportunities and the challenges faced by angel investors.
Discussion on the role of AI and generative AI in increasing productivity expectations and potentially reducing job availability.
The speaker's personal experience with government job opportunities and the complexities of background checks.
Concerns about the future of the tech market and the potential long-term effects of AI on job availability.
The decrease in recruiter outreach as a sign of a tougher job market, affecting not just tech but other industries as well.
Advice for those currently employed to save money and be grateful for their jobs in the current economic climate.
The speaker's hope for an eventual improvement in the job market and the return of recruiter activity.
A closing thought on the importance of financial preparedness and the uncertainty of the job market in the coming years.
Transcripts
hey everybody what up uh so I'm
wondering how bad it it is out there for
uh for most of y'all that are actually
looking for work I bring that up because
um I've had a few
people that I've worked with for a long
time at a previous company I mean I
spent over a decade there and couple
years ago they got a new CEO and um I
mean the place has just got it like uh
people that have been working there 15
20 30 years like pretty much uh you know
they've laid off at least 25% and I left
it the perfect time actually cuz I
probably would have been a casualty of
that as
well um they're a large insurance
company and
uh basically at one point had like
40,000 employees I think they're
probably down to like 26 or so now uh
just in a matter of a couple of years
and it doesn't seem like uh that is
going to stop so anyway I I left at the
perfect time but um you know thankfully
I haven't had to be out there on the
market but I've heard some pretty
terrible stories I mean just even uh
reading on Hacker News or or Reddit of
the amount of people uh or really the
amount of applications that people are
putting out there to try to get a job
and then I know several people
personally so this one guy was in like
uh Tech sales and he's um he's been out
of work for about 18 months and has put
in I think 800 or 900
applications and granted this guy's a
little bit older though I mean he's
actually almost 60 so I know that like
it's not going to be good for anybody
trying to be intact when you're
approaching 50 or
Beyond uh you could possibly make the
argument for younger than that too um
and anyway so a couple people have
reached out recently um for this uh this
company I used to work
for and just you know asking for
recommendations or
referrals on LinkedIn and you I don't
know that any of that stuff really helps
um well maybe it does I mean unless you
have like like sway in a company to get
people hired uh even if I wanted to get
people hired even if I knew that they
did a good job and I've worked with them
before and and all that um I personally
speaking feel like I don't have the sway
to you know shoe them into a company but
that might be like really the only way
at this point
because every single job you know it
seems like it's gonna have thousands of
of of applications and um you know
there's there's a good possibility your
your resume is not even looked
at so mainly I'm just curious uh from
the audience like what are your
experiences lately I mean um I hope that
it gets better soon I mean I maybe if
they drop interest rates like they're
talking about doing in September we
could start spurring some more develop M
and uh you know research and development
specifically that that really benefits
startups but right now with the federal
interest rate as high as it is from what
I understand and I'm no expert but uh it
just it's too costly to basically borrow
a bunch of money to fund
development for something that may or
may not make
money so as those interest rates go up
those opportunities go down because most
companies can't afford
to spend hundreds of millions of dollars
trying to invest in something that in
all likelihood is not going to work out
it's not going to make any profit and
then you know that that also is like all
the angel investors and such and uh it
just seems like it's all dried up you
know it's all dried
up and I don't know how much of that has
to do with AI but I do know that with
the whole AI craze generative Ai and all
that developers are expected to do more
and it's already been that way so
we have this tool now at our at our
disposal it doesn't really take our job
but it does actually make
things a lot easier you know
so it would seem to me the expectation
is that companies are going to be able
to tap into generative Ai and they're
probably going to expect somewhere
around a 50% boost in productivity
pretty much every
engineer
which you know right there and none of
these numbers are exact just my just my
observations and my guesses really but
if that is the case then obviously you
need 50% less developers to do the same
amount of work
and I'm just hoping that'll change
soon but um but yeah I mean I don't
really know how to to help people that
even if if they were close to me I mean
I can make an employee referral or
something like that because some of
these people I can definitely vouch for
they're good
programmers
but you know no nobody's really hiring
right now and and the competition is
just Fierce I mean people with Google
and Fang companies on their resume are
putting in 5 600 applications not
getting any any responses
so I really do hope it it changes and um
you know right now it seems pretty bleak
for the tech Market just
because as I get older um you know it's
certainly a concern that like well damn
you know I can't move away from a a hub
it looks like I'm in the middle of
nowhere actually sort of am but uh I'm
in the DC region so you know one of the
reasons why I stay here is because you
have the federal government and there's
tons of jobs so I'm hoping that you know
push comes to to shove that I'll be able
to land in one of these government
contractors or something like that if I
ever needed to and I've had those
opportunities in the past but I've
always just stayed in the the private
sector um you know that most of these
government contracts you have to go
through all these like uh the
complicated background background
searches and things and it depends
really even like the the basic uh
clearances and things require quite a
bit of uh background checks and all that
which I'm not concerned about I've
actually gone through that process in
the past and ended up declining a job uh
for both the FBI and another one was for
I don't even want to mention but a
different government agency that I
decided not to go with uh so yeah
biggest question is just like how bad is
it when is it going to get
better my answer to that is it's not
going to be anytime soon we have an
election coming up I don't know what
that's going to mean for anything really
but
um it just feels like it's going to take
several more years to sort of climb out
of this hole and see where we land with
generative Ai and what that's really
going to do to the job
market and hopefully again um
you know hopefully I start seeing the
recruiters come back because I'm sure
other people can relate but I would get
like four or five
recruiters contacting me every single
day on like LinkedIn or my email and
then now it's like once a week maybe
um and yeah
so tough time I guess to be a developer
but it's tough for pretty much everybody
too because I also know that I have a a
friend of mine that's that's an attorney
and uh staff counsel
and they've been putting out resumés and
not able to get any traction at all
either so I don't think it's just Tech I
mean we're we're in we're in for a
pretty rough I think next few years and
uh it'll get better I'm sure eventually
but definitely save your money if you
have a job like you should be saving
that money uh saving in your
401 because like I said that older guy
that I know who's been in this industry
now for um you know decades like 18
months out of work and he's just
depleting all of his
401 so if you have a job be grateful for
it and if you don't let me know what
your experiences all right talk to you
later bye
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