Next World War: Real Possibility Explained By Geopolitics Expert

Summary

This discussion delves into the historical and current geopolitical landscape, exploring the evolution of international relations from a 'might is right' approach to a rules-based order. It examines the impact of global events post-2020, suggesting a retreat from global norms and an increasing instability reminiscent of pre-World War II times. The conversation underscores the challenges of enforcing international law without a global governing body and ponders India's strategic position amidst potential global conflicts, hinting at the possibility of a world divided into competing systems.

Takeaways

• 🕰️ The concept of sovereign states and international rules is relatively recent in history, with significant developments post-1648.
• 🌍 The 30 Years War and its conclusion with the Peace of Westphalia marked a shift towards recognizing national sovereignty and setting rules for state conduct.
• 🏛️ The establishment of the League of Nations and later the United Nations was an attempt to create a rules-based international order and prevent global conflicts.
• 🔄 Despite the creation of international laws and organizations, enforcement remains a challenge due to the lack of a global governing body.
• 📉 There has been a retreat from global norms in the past 20 years, with countries increasingly resorting to military operations and interference in others' affairs.
• 🌐 The world is currently at a state of heightened geopolitical instability, with minor conflicts potentially escalating into major ones.
• 💡 The speaker suggests that India should focus on self-reliance, internal economic strength, and strategic autonomy in the face of global unpredictability.
• 🤝 India has traditionally maintained pragmatic partnerships with all, avoiding formal alliances to preserve its freedom of action on the global stage.
• 🔄 The Russia-China relationship is not as close as it may seem, with historical evidence suggesting Russia's attempts to integrate more with Western markets.
• 🔮 The future may see the world split into competing systems, with India as a significant swing state that has yet to align clearly with any major power bloc.

Q & A

What significant change occurred in the international system after the 30 Years War?

The 30 Years War led to the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648, which marked the first time that national sovereignty was recognized as a principle. It established that it was no longer legal for states to invade each other's lands without just cause, thus introducing a rules-based order in international relations.

Why was the establishment of the League of Nations and the United Nations important?

The establishment of the League of Nations after World War I and the United Nations after World War II was crucial because they aimed to create a rules-based international order to prevent the recurrence of global conflicts. They introduced international law and diplomacy to provide peaceful means for resolving disputes between nations.

What are the limitations of international law in the global system?

International law has limitations because there is no global government to enforce it. Unlike domestic law, which has clear legislation and enforcement mechanisms, international law lacks a universal court of last recourse and a global police force, making it difficult to enforce judgments and maintain order.

How has the global order changed in the early 2000s according to the speaker?

The speaker observes a retreat from global norms in the early 2000s, with countries increasingly undertaking military operations and interfering in each other's domestic politics without significant consequences. This indicates a move away from a rules-based international society towards a more unstable and unpredictable geopolitical landscape.

What does the speaker suggest about the current geopolitical instability?

The speaker suggests that the world is currently experiencing a level of geopolitical instability not seen since the end of World War II. This is due to the weakening of American influence, the rise of new powers, and the increasing willingness of nations to engage in conventional warfare, despite the existence of international rules.

Why is self-reliance important for countries like India in the current global context?

Self-reliance is important for countries like India because it allows them to maintain strategic autonomy and not be vulnerable to external incidents and events. It also enables them to create strategic space for themselves in an increasingly unstable and unpredictable world.

What is the speaker's perspective on the future of alliances and partnerships for India?

The speaker believes that India may have to choose between alliances in the future as the world seems to be moving towards two competing systems. India has traditionally maintained pragmatic, issue-based partnerships but may need to decide between aligning with the West or the Russia-China axis, or potentially a third pole.

Why does the speaker think the Russia-China partnership is not as natural as it seems?

The speaker suggests that the Russia-China partnership is not as natural as it appears because Russia has historically tried to integrate with the West, investing in infrastructure and economic projects aimed at Western markets. The current closeness is more a result of Western pressure on Russia than a genuine desire for close cooperation with China.

What evidence does the speaker provide to support the idea that Russia's economic interests were more aligned with the West than China?

The speaker points to Russia's investment in major economic infrastructure like the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines, which were aimed at serving European markets rather than Chinese markets. This indicates that Russia's economic interests were more aligned with the West.

What does the speaker imply about the future of global conflicts and the potential for a major state-on-state conflict?

The speaker implies that the return of major state-on-state conflicts is a possibility, as minor conflicts can escalate into major ones due to the interconnected nature of the world. The current geopolitical instability increases the chances of unforeseen consequences and a domino effect from localized incidents.