Wyndham Championship DFS Golf + Betting Preview : Modeling, Draftkings Core, Values + Outright Bets

Summary

In this DFS embedding preview, Luke GS breaks down the Windom Championship's final regular season event, focusing on weather impacts, course specifics, and key stats for player selection. He highlights top plays, including Sedgefield's impact, and offers DFS and outright betting strategies. Luke also discusses specific players' performances on Bermuda grass and their suitability for the course, providing valuable insights for fans looking to optimize their bets.

Takeaways

• 🏌️‍♂️ The video discusses DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) embedding preview for the Wyndham Championship, a golf tournament.
• 🌐 Luke, the host, provides insights on how to approach the tournament with modeling and DFS strategies, especially considering the potential impact of a tropical storm on the event.
• 🌦️ A weather warning is highlighted, with a tropical storm expected to affect North Carolina, possibly leading to delays or even cancellation of play.
• 📊 Luke emphasizes the importance of key stats like approach play, shots gained putting, and Bermuda grass performance for identifying top players in the tournament.
• 🚩 Sedgefield Country Club is identified as a positional golf course, where mid to long irons and layups are common, and driving accuracy is more valuable than distance.
• 🌳 The course's narrow fairways and potential for wind may increase the importance of approach out of the rough and around the green stats.
• 🎯 Comparisons with similar courses like TPC Southwind, River Highlands, and Colonial Country Club are suggested for further analysis.
• 💰 Six core plays and three value plays are identified, with specific players highlighted for their potential performance and value in DFS and outright bets.
• 🏆 Sunjae Im is mentioned as a top play with a history of good performance on the course and solid recent form, making him a popular choice in DFS and for outright bets.
• 🌿 Brian Harman is highlighted for his ability to perform well in difficult conditions, which could be a factor if the storm impacts the tournament.
• 📈 The video also discusses the importance of course history and recent form, with players like JT Poston and Ben Griffin being examples of value picks based on these factors.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the video script?

The main topic of the video script is a DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) embedding preview for the upcoming Wyndham Championship, discussing the event's expectations, player analysis, and betting strategies.

What is the significance of the weather forecast for the Wyndham Championship?

The weather forecast is significant because a tropical storm is expected to pass through North Carolina during the tournament, potentially causing delays, shortening the event to 54 holes, or even leading to a complete washout, which could impact playing conditions and scoring.

What is the role of Sedgefield Country Club in the Wyndham Championship?

Sedgefield Country Club is the venue for the Wyndham Championship. It is characterized as a positional golf course with a par 70 layout and is known for its Bermuda grass, which affects the players' strategies and performance.

Why is approach play considered the number one key stat for this event?

Approach play is considered the number one key stat because Sedgefield Country Club is a second-shot golf course, where players often have to lay up, leading to many shots from mid to long irons, making approach play crucial for success.

What is the importance of shots gained putting in the player selection process?

Shots gained putting is important as it reflects a player's recent form with the putter and their performance on Bermuda grass greens, which is a key factor at Sedgefield Country Club.

How does driving accuracy compare to driving distance in terms of importance at Sedgefield Country Club?

Driving accuracy is more important than driving distance at Sedgefield because the course is more about positioning and laying up, requiring players to hit fairways accurately rather than overpowering the course.

What are the top three comparable courses mentioned for the Wyndham Championship?

The top three comparable courses mentioned are TPC Southwind, TPC River Highlands, and Colonial Country Club, all of which share similar characteristics with Sedgefield Country Club.

Who are some of the players discussed as core plays for DFS and outright bets in the script?

Some of the players discussed as core plays for DFS and outright bets include Sungjae Im, Brian Harman, and Carlos Ortiz. Sungjae Im is highlighted as a popular play with a history of good performance at the event.

What is the reason for considering Christian Bezuidenhout as a core play in DFS?

Christian Bezuidenhout is considered a core play because he fits the style of the golf course, has a solid performance history at Sedgefield, and his recent form and shots gained metrics are positive, making him a valuable pick at his price point.

What factors contribute to the selection of players for outright bets at higher odds?

Factors contributing to the selection of players for outright bets at higher odds include their historical performance at the course, recent form, shots gained metrics, and the ability to perform well in challenging conditions like wind and rain.

How does the script suggest approaching the selection of value plays in DFS?

The script suggests approaching the selection of value plays by considering players priced at $8,000 or cheaper, who have a good course fit, recent form, and positive shots gained metrics, even if they may not be the most popular or widely owned picks.

What is the significance of the Patreon page mentioned in the script?

The Patreon page is significant as it offers subscribers access to in-depth analysis, ownership projections, player polls, and shots gained metrics, providing additional tools for subscribers to make informed decisions in their DFS and betting strategies.

What is the role of the live stream scheduled for Wednesday at 7:00 p.m. eastern time?

The live stream serves as a platform to discuss last-minute information, ownership projections, weather forecasts, and their potential impact on the tournament. It also includes a Q&A segment to address viewer questions and provide insights on game theory and lineup construction.

Outlines

00:00

🏌️‍♂️ Golf DFS Strategy and Weather Impact

The script introduces a DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) preview for the Wyndham Championship by GS, Luke. It discusses the importance of the final week of the regular season for FedEx Cup playoffs and outlines the strategy for DFS and betting. The Sedgefield Country Club's characteristics as a positional golf course are highlighted, along with the potential impact of a tropical storm on the event. Key stats for modeling and identifying top plays are mentioned, with a focus on approach play and putting on Bermuda grass. The unpredictability of weather and its potential to affect the tournament's outcome is emphasized.

05:02

🌦️ Weather's Role and Player Selection Criteria

This paragraph delves into the possible effects of the tropical storm on the tournament, including delays and the possibility of a shortened event. It discusses the difficulty of handicapping without tee times or a clear weather forecast. The script then shifts to player selection, emphasizing driving accuracy over distance, and the importance of approach play and Bermuda grass performance. It highlights the need to consider recent form, particularly in putting and around-the-green stats, and introduces the concept of 'comp courses' for comparison.

10:02

🎯 Key Players and Their DFS & Outright Bets

The speaker identifies and discusses several key players, including their DFS pricing, outright odds, and reasoning for selection. Players like Sungjae Im, Brian Harman, and Joaquin Niemann are highlighted for their course fit, recent form, and historical performance. The importance of course history and the players' ability to perform under challenging conditions is underscored. The speaker also mentions his approach to outright bets and the potential for high ownership of certain popular players.

15:02

📊 In-Depth Player Analysis and Value Plays

The script provides an in-depth analysis of players like Christian Bezuidenhout, highlighting their performance metrics and suitability for the course's Bermuda grass. It discusses the importance of approach play from the rough and around-the-green skills. The speaker also introduces value plays like JT Poston and discusses his past performance and suitability for the course. The potential for different ownership percentages and the strategic use of these in DFS lineups are also mentioned.

20:02

🚀 High-Risk, High-Reward Outright Bets and Course Fit

This section discusses high-risk, high-reward outright bets, including players like Will Zalatoris and Nick Dunlap, who are considered course horses with excellent Bermuda grass stats. The speaker explains the rationale behind these bets, focusing on the players' approach play and around-the-green abilities. It also touches on the importance of course fit and how certain players may excel on tracks that suit their game, despite not being the most accurate off the tee.

🌐 Final Thoughts and Engagement Invitation

The script concludes with an invitation for viewers to engage by commenting their picks for the tournament, with a reward for correct predictions. It summarizes the DFS strategy, mentions the Patreon page for more in-depth analysis, and highlights upcoming content, including prop bets and a live stream. The speaker encourages viewers to subscribe and participate in the live stream for last-minute insights and to prepare for the tournament.

Keywords

💡DFS

DFS stands for Daily Fantasy Sports, which is a form of sports betting where players create a virtual lineup for a given sport, in this case, golf. In the context of the video, the host is discussing strategies for DFS in relation to the Wyndham Championship, analyzing player performance and course fit to make informed betting decisions.

💡Wyndham Championship

The Wyndham Championship is a professional golf tournament on the PGA Tour. It is a key event for players as it marks the end of the regular season and is crucial for determining standings for the FedEx Cup playoffs. The script discusses the importance of this event for players' standings and betting opportunities.

💡FedEx Cup playoffs

The FedEx Cup playoffs are a series of four golf tournaments that determine the PGA Tour's season-long champion. The script mentions the significance of the Wyndham Championship for players to secure their status and qualify for these playoffs.

💡Sedgefield Country Club

Sedgefield Country Club is the venue for the Wyndham Championship. The host describes it as a 'positional golf course' and discusses its characteristics, such as being a shorter course with a focus on approach play and putting, which are crucial for DFS modeling.

💡Tropical storm

The script mentions a tropical storm that is expected to impact the Wyndham Championship, potentially causing delays or changes in the tournament format. This weather event is significant as it could affect playing conditions and player performance.

💡Bermuda grass

Bermuda grass is a type of grass used on golf courses for greens, tees, and fairways. The host discusses the importance of this grass type in the context of the Sedgefield Country Club and how it affects players' performance, particularly in putting and approach shots.

💡Shots gained

Shots gained is a statistical measure used in golf analytics to evaluate a player's performance relative to the field. The script references this metric to identify top plays and to analyze player performance, particularly in approach shots and putting on Bermuda grass.

💡Positional golf course

A positional golf course is one where strategy and course management are emphasized over power. The host describes Sedgefield as such a course, where accuracy and smart play are more important than long drives.

💡Layup

In golf, a layup refers to a deliberate short shot to a safe area, typically on a par 5 hole, to set up an easier third shot to the green. The script mentions that Sedgefield often forces players to lay up, which affects strategy for DFS.

💡Outright bets

Outright bets are wagers on a player to win a tournament outright. The host discusses several players with favorable outright odds, considering their performance metrics and course fit for the Wyndham Championship.

💡Ownership projections

Ownership projections in DFS refer to the estimated percentage of lineups a particular player will be included in. The host mentions these projections to discuss strategy and differentiation in DFS lineups.

💡Value plays

Value plays in DFS are selections that offer a good potential return relative to their cost. The host identifies several players as value plays, indicating that they are priced affordably but have the potential to perform well in the tournament.

Highlights

GS, Luke provides a DFS embedding preview for the Windom Championship, discussing strategies and player analysis.

The regular season's last week has significant implications for FedEx Cup playoffs and outright bets.

Sedgefield Country Club's characteristics as a positional golf course are highlighted, including its yardage and potential weather impact.

A tropical storm is forecasted to affect the area, possibly leading to delays or even cancellations of play.

The importance of approach play and shots gained putting on the Bermuda grass is emphasized for this event.

Driving accuracy and good drive percentage are more valuable than driving distance on this course.

Approach out of Bermuda rough is a key stat for players' success at Sedgefield.

TPC Southwind, TBC River Highlands, and Colonial Country Club are identified as comparable courses for model weighting.

Six core plays and three value plays are presented, including their DFS and outright betting potential.

Xander Schauffele is highlighted as a top play with unmatched event history and solid shots gained metrics.

Brian Harman is noted for his affordability and ability to perform well in challenging conditions.

Chez Reavie is identified as a core play with a consistent performance and good fit for the course.

JT Poston is a value play with a history of success at Sedgefield and a good fit for the course's demands.

Ben Griffin is presented as a value play with recent improved performance and a good course fit.

Brendan Todd is the last core play discussed, favored for his course history and potential for a top performance.

Outright bets for Will Zalatoris and Nick Dunlap are mentioned, considering their potential upside.

A Patreon page is promoted, offering detailed player analysis, ownership projections, and DFS tools.

A live stream is scheduled for Wednesday, offering last-minute insights and answering audience questions.

Transcripts

[Music]

welcome on inle fans it's your boy GS

Luke here with our DFS embedding preview

for this week's Windom Championship

going to break down what to expect from

this event as well as how I'm attacking

my modeling and DFS and betting exposure

for this event it's the last week of the

regular season schedule so obviously a

lot on the line when it comes to keeping

your status and getting into those FedEx

Cup playoffs and of course some Je P's

to take down some outright bets that

have got our names on it so a lot to get

into for this week so I'm stoked for it

excited to get after it here and let

started off with a look at my modeling

in key stats and I'm using to identify

some of those top plays Sedgefield

Country Club is more of a positional

golf course and very similar to some of

the other layup golf courses that we

have on the PJ tour it's only about 7100

yard and though it typically plays

pretty easy this year we've got a

tropical storm heading through the area

so if you haven't seen the news there is

going to be a storm heading right

through North Carolina Thursday and

Friday which means we may have over 3 in

of rain come through the area at least

if the local forecasts are correct so if

that happens could very easily be a

delay in play heck could even be a 54

hole golf tournament or and worst case

scenario might be a complete wash out so

I think the weather going to be a huge

impact for this week but unfortunately

here in a Monday we don't have the tea

times to look at and or a clear weather

forecast so the one thing I'll say is

that it does look like it could be a

very wet week if they end up playing

through some of the storms could be

brutally difficult out there in Thursday

and Friday but uh far too much unknown

right now to really talk about anything

from that side one thing I will note is

that it might play a little bit softer

this year but if it's going to be

extremely windy and they play through it

you could have some of the harder

scoring conditions that we've seen at

this golf course but putting that aside

just diving into what we usually see at

Sedgefield from the approach profile

it's a lot of those mid to Long irons

you'd expect for only a 70 100 yard Golf

Course to have quite a few wedges but

because the golf course forces you to

lay up far more often than not um you're

going to have a lot of shots from 125

yards out to about 225 so that's where a

majority of my waiting is going to be

this weekend because it is a second shot

golf course that's when you get when you

have a lot of layups the approach play

is going to be by far our number one key

stat and number two we've got shots

gained putting I'm looking at some

recent form metrics when it comes to the

flat stick but also some berbo grass

numbers you have got a p pure berer

grass out there from tip to toe so

whether it's the greens rough collars

Fairways te's everything is going to be

some variation of Bermuda off the te as

I mentioned much more of a positional

golf course so though driving distance

isn't something that you can completely

ignore it's going to be a little bit

helpful on the par fivs also for just

hitting shorter clubs into the greens it

is much more about driving accuracy and

good drive percentage then it is going

out there and overpowering the place

number four I've got approach out of

Bermuda to rough so because you've got

real narrow Fairways out there and

perhaps with the added wind I think you

might see a few more missed Fairways so

something that I'm mixing in and then my

friends over there at bet the number

were looking at as well around the green

we've got recent form but also once

again that Bermuda grass Baseline as

everything here is going to be that

Bermuda and then for our comp courses

we've got six to choose from but these

top three are by far my favorite so

we'll focus on those three you got TPC

Southwind short berm grass par 70 that

fits pretty much everything that we have

this week TBC River Highlands another

short par 70 a beit with a different set

of agronomy and then Colonial Country

Club similar kind of story right

different Agronomy but a lot of the same

kind of shots and a lot of forced layups

off the te so I think that all three are

exceptional comc courses but you could

even throw in a TPC saw grass that does

have that Bermuda grass in play TPC San

Antonio another short track where it's

hard to hit Fairways John Deere it's a

little bit easier than what we'll get

this week but another one of those

shorter more positional kind of go

courses and then also TPC Twin Cities

which we saw for the 3M open are all I

think worthy of some comparison so with

that being said we've talked about our

modeling what I'm looking for in players

now let's apply that and try and find

some of our top targets so we're going

to have six plays here three core plays

three value plays that I point out but

also an extra four outright bets that

I've taken so a little bit more outright

SL betting exposure this week and six

core plays as I mentioned before let's

started off with sunm at the top end of

the board he's the most most expensive

players also the shortest outright

number that I'm taking and he's 16 to1

um I think in DFS he will be one of the

more popular plays and I think it's well

warranted here the event history is

unmatched you got T14 T2 t24 also two

top 10 finishes back there in 2020 and

202 19 the shots gained heading in are

solid as well if you take a look at that

you can see he has the t7 at the open of

course pretty solid finish top five

there at the Genesis a T12 at the on

Deere and if you look at the shots gain

metrics it all lines up as well he's

gaining across all four stat categories

most impressively out there with the

iron play and even out to the last 24

rounds he is still gaining across the

board so a very sustainable kind of

shots gained profile and what we're used

to seeing from Sanjay uh La towards the

middle to end of last season he kind of

fell off in a few key categories and now

that we're starting to get that vintage

sunj U might part of it may have been

injury right we had that with sunj he

was dealing with a little bit of a

recurring uh leave wrist injury out

there um seems to be doing a lot better

A lot healthier and you're seeing that

with the results now that we're getting

them at more of a positional track

that's what he is off the te a very

straight driver of the golf ball um Iron

play has been dialed in over the last

few months to get him on BB grass which

is also a very good surface for him in

terms of his long-term Baseline um and

the greens that he's lit up over the

last few years I mean it's just a spot

where I think you might have that form

peeking at the right time course fit

peeking at the right time hell even help

out there for sunm being a huge plus um

which is why I'll take him for the

outright at 16 to1 so I think a DFS will

be popular but I think that is well

warranted and more importantly has the

kind of upside to go out there and crack

out there for a win so you know it's

been quite some time for sunjay since

we've had that kind of Pop performance

but historically he is the kind of guy

that you trust out there on a Sunday and

not somebody that is a Serial choker or

anything like that so definitely a

little bit of a short outright odds

there at 16 to1 but I think was well

warranted with all those factors in play

next up we got Brian Harmon down here at

30 to1 he is $9,300 I think a very

affordable price tag and you also like

him at these short positional tracks you

like him at courses where it's about

that driving accuracy over the driving

distance and an added thing that I think

separates him from some of the other

outrights that we'll talk about is

ability to go out there and grind in

nasty conditions and I already said that

it's hard to go out there and kind of

figure out whether we're going to play

on Thursday and Friday but if they play

in windy and rainy conditions there is

no one in the field that trust more to

go out there and grind than a Brian

Harmon you've seen it in the open

championships you've seen it time and

time again from him when conditions get

nasty him having some of the better

rounds out there in the event so you

know I like that aspect to it even if he

gets the bad end of the draw this week

right maybe he can go out there and

still pull through for us and at 30 to1

it was also a better outright number

than a lot of the other sports books out

there so another guy mixed in I think

it'll be maybe averagely owned down here

in this range sunj will probably be

chalky I would imagine that some people

are going to play Billy horel this week

with his course history um he's not

going to be overlooked you'll still have

guys that'll play Davis Thompson o batia

I imagine would be a pretty popular play

but he's also not going to be like 25%

owned like we have up there with the

sunj m in sell sunj it's only Monday

it's hard to really say where he's going

to come in with the ownership I could

see him even being like 30% owned out

there on Wednesday uh that shouldn't be

the case here with Brian Harmon I'm

assuming that he's going to come in

closer to about 15% ownership which will

give you a much easier time going out

there and get leverage in your lineups

and also can give you a bit more

differentiation as well next up our next

outright will be Christian ban hooot at

$8,700 another core play that I'm

pointing out here and a player that fits

this style of golf course now the form

maybe not as solid is what you had with

sunjay but still quietly chugging along

with his shots gain metrics you can see

positive in all four stat categories

that would be over his last 12 measured

rounds and even over his last 24 rounds

where it's only three of the four C

categories that he's positive he is a

very accurate driver of the golf ball so

definitely not the longest cat he's gone

a little bit better off the te over the

last year or so but at this style of

golf course for it's about putting

yourself in position leaning on that

Fairway in on Fairway from ingame

reminds me a lot of web Simpson who of

course is the Whisperer around

Sedgefield uh he's got a win here named

one of his children after the damn Golf

Course um a player that pretty much

every time you tease it up goes out

there in top 10s now baz who doesn't

quite have that kind of course history

yet but he's that same style of player

so you can see in his three starts here

he has made the cut in every single trip

but now that he's turning into a much

more well-rounded player a much more

consistent player out here uh and now

starting to gain across all four stat

categories is the kind of player that I

think could win at this event now that's

why I took him at 40 to1 but in DFS the

reason why I'll Point him out as a core

play is he doesn't have to win to pay

off an $8,700 praise tag a top 10 would

be enough and I think that in this kind

of field especially now that he's taken

his game to another level that he has

the upside to go out there and get that

kind of thing done so you can see here

number 18 in the rankings when it comes

to recent form some of the longer term

stuff is actually even more favorable

out there for CZ you can see he's the

number 14 ranked play in the entire

field a solid berm grass putter meant to

mention that about guys like Brian Haron

and sunji M all of these guys gain

Strokes to their Baseline on berm grass

so um if you didn't see my course

breakdown I talk extensively about why

Bermudagrass in particular is course

where you see a lot of the coarse um

kind of cats go out there and have a lot

of success it's because berm grass is

very unique you have that grain in play

whether it's chipping off of it or going

out there and putting berit grass greens

there is an art form for knowing how to

do so playing guys that have had solid

stats on it or that are very familiar

with that type of aromy can reap

benefits at these sort of events and the

one thing you get with the Windom that

isn't always the case like when we have

Bermuda grass greens is that you get

Bermuda from tip to toe so the guys that

are you know excellent or exceptional on

the surface are not only going to get a

benefit on the greens but also around

the greens so as you saw with our key

stats earlier right I'm looking at

around the Green stats on Bermuda grass

um heck even approach out of that

Bermuda rough and pretty much no matter

which metric you look at out there for

bazan hoot he is a huge positive in

every single category so that's why the

course metrics are a little bit higher

on him than you'd expect even with him

losing shots off the te over his last 24

right the last 24 rounds aren't as solid

as what we've seen over the last 12 but

because of the fact that all the

approach stats around the green stuff on

Bermuda grass pop that is why I'm still

willing to take them at 40 to1 before we

talk about our last three value plays

and a few other outright bets that I'm

mixing in for the week I'm going to go

ahead and point out my patreon page

which of course can be accessed down

there in the description of this video

If you joined the golf DFS tier you can

get access to everything you see on the

spreadsheet and I'll include all my

ownership projections when they're done

Tuesday after no also my entire player

poll shots gain metrics modeling for

every player we've got the recent form

on here as you can see over the last few

events they've got event history for

every player in the field the shots gain

metrics of my model weights that of

course were censored over here on the

right all of course for your access and

your process so it'll give you

perspective for what I'm getting to in

any given week but also give you all the

research tools that you need to go out

there and do your process yourself so

it's only $15 for a month on there it is

a very reasonable price tag especially

compared to some of the other sites out

there which are costing you 50 to

sometimes well over $100 a month for

their services over here is just $15

again very reasonable and on top of that

you also get Showdown content for rounds

two through four so you have main s

every week Showdown for rounds two

through 4 all of this data the ownership

projections of course change out there

for Showdown as well um projected points

player pull all of that so make sure to

get check it out if you guys haven't

already and uh again a great value over

there a way to get all the content that

I have to offer and my take on every

single player that's playing not just

the few guys that we talk about here in

these previews but next up we've got

ourselves JT Poston so our first value

play a value play for me is anybody that

is $8,000 and cheaper on most weeks um

sometimes if it goes up to like a 13k

price tag I'll push that up just a

little bit but JT Post in at $7,900

another guy that I took for an outright

at 60 to1 so a player that's won here

before back there in I believe 2019 was

able to get the job done so you can see

back there Poston went win cut cut but

did have that t7 last year and a t21 the

year before that and a very accurate

driver of the golf ball that once again

is a solid putter out there on berm

grass and that if you take a look at his

approach profile is best from the mid to

longer irons he's not always the best

wedge player but when you give him like

a nine iron to something out there to a

six is one of the best players out there

on the PGA tour so this golf course I

don't think it's a you know a

coincidence that he's gone out there and

had so much success here here and though

the shots gain metrics aren't perfect

right that's why we're getting them at a

slightly cheaper price tag also why I

think we're going to get a discounted

ownership Mark out here on JT Poston

he's been doing his thing with the short

game at least right gaining around the

graen doing his thing with the putter

you zoom out a little bit it's a lot of

similar stuff right losing in the two

ball striking categories by going out

there and doing solid things with the um

short game stuff I'll take them for a

get right spot right he's not going to

come in with the best form but that's

also why we're getting a much better

outright number on him if he was coming

in with he'd probably be closer to like

25 or 30 to1 he would probably also be

like 88 to maybe even $99,500 so they

getting it you know buying to dip out

there per se out there on somebody like

JT Poston and historically with the

course history the course fit makes a

whole lot of sense at this kind of golf

course if you outright some to point out

we're not going to really do a whole

Deep dive here or anything but I did bet

Will zorus and Nick Dunlop at 75 to1

will Alors if I want to do anything with

them this week right maybe I throw him

in a few lineups for DFS but I think the

best format might be an outright BET

right if he ends up withdrawing before

lock you're not going to get killed

there you'll get refunded on most sports

books and if he's back right he took

quite a lengthy break after going out

there and having to withdraw if he's

back to his former self this is a

criminal number right 75 to1 would make

no sense if we're getting a vintage will

out torus now that's a huge if but

that's also why you're betting the guy

at 75 to1 so it's a pure upside play

there I think a DFS may be a little bit

more risky but we'll have to see what he

says in some of his pressers this week

and uh how how he's feeling out there

for this golf tournament but next up

Nick Dunlap I also took it 75 to1 I

think he's much more in play for DFS

we're just not going to talk about

everyone here that I want to but uh I

really like the play the berm grass

stats are excellent really good putter

on berm but one of the best players in

the field when it comes to approach play

at a Bermuda rough and also one of the

best around the green players when it

comes to Bermuda grass so a course horse

right somebody that really fits this

kind of track and uh though he's a

little bit inaccurate off the te the

numbers out of the rough kind of make up

for that and hopefully him laying up off

the te can lead to him hitting a few

more Fairways um and just to give you an

idea guys like Cam Davis are that same

sort of player right like Cam Davis does

not hit a lot of Fairways and uh I don't

even know yeah there he is right $8,900

if you look at cam Davis's course

history you'd probably be surprised it's

because he's laying up off the tea right

you top 10 last year T15 t22 back there

5 years ago I think the reason why he

can still get it done here is his iron

play his putting is solid enough to

still get the job done so I don't think

you can completely ignore guys just

because they're not the most accurate

player and uh I think Nick Dunlop is a

perfect example of that by the way if

you take a look at cam davis' shots gain

profile he's really good out of Bermuda

rough so I think that's maybe why he's

able to take advantage of that next up

we got Ben Griffin as our next value

play official play out here he's also a

guy took for an outright bet at 75 to1

it's worth noting if you take a look at

his Sedgefield fit over here from the

course fit perspective he's the number

two player in the field so the fact that

he's number 39 in the pricing down here

at number two course fit just made him

an absolute steal so he opened up at 60

to1 on Hard Rock bet he actually got

bumped from 60 up to 75 to one and after

seeing that with somebody I went out

there and fired for an outright bet he's

been playing a lot better golf lately

than what we're used to seeing and the

fact that he's only $7,300 is a little

bit of a head scratcher to me I think he

should probably be around $8,000 if I is

making the pricing and if you take a

look at the shots gained profile he been

doing vintage Ben Griffin stuff I mean

just going out there striping his irons

off the te is always a little bit of a

loose cannon but if you take a look at

his event history here right he's had a

lot of success around this kind of track

so if we go down here to 7300 you'll see

that he missed the cut last year but the

year before that did have a top five

finish in one of his first starts back

out there on the PJ tour so this is a

track that seemingly brings out the best

in Ben Griffin's game and if you take a

look at a lot of those comp courses that

we mentioned before he's had a ton of

success and Especial Especially recent

success at a lot of these kind of golf

courses so you know if we take a look at

the recent form from Ben Griffin you'll

see exactly what we're talking about

here right so t39 I believe that was at

what the Genesis but if we go before

that T5 t31 at two golf courses that

play pretty similar right John Deere was

on the list I think rocket mortgage a

decent enough comp there as well so he's

played well at the comps he's played

well at this golf course number two

course fit for metagraph Specialists go

ahead and sign me up for some Ben

Griffin before we talk about our last

full play do want to point out the last

two outrights that we're not going to

cover in full detail but I did want to

point out to you guys from the betting

card perspective I did bet Ben hoh's for

a top 5 at 22 to1 he was at 20 to1 did

get a 10% profit boost over there on

Hard Rock so I got that up to 22 to1

myself but you can see he's gaining on

Berita grass also a very accurate driver

of the golf ball so somebody I took for

a little bit of a top-end performance

there you know a little Spike

performance out there for Ben Kohl's

hopefully and then the last outright

which is a pure upside play this is

probably lighting money on fire but I

did take Daniel Berger at 150 to1 most

other books have them at a lower number

than that so a little bit of line value

I guess if you're going ahead and

comparing other books but the shots gain

metrics particularly te to Green have

been there for Daniel Burger you can see

historically a pretty decent putter out

there on Bermuda in fact gains about2

Strokes per round on the surface and

that is .9 Strokes better than his

Baseline lately so as I said right Tia

green has been there putter has

completely failed Daniel Burger so far

so maybe getting them back on Berita a

surface that has been his best out there

on the PGA tour can get him back into

the positive for once and uh like I said

probably a crap shoot for him to go out

there and Win It 150 to1 but um I did

bet it so I'm going to point it out to

you guys right might not hit but at

least wanted to to give you guys all my

exposure to be transparent about it and

then the last core play though the last

official play out here for the video is

going to be Brendan Todd at 100 to1 so

he's 70 to1 and this is a quintessential

Brendon Todd Golf Course right track

where it's not all about the driving

distance off the tea if you can be a

good putter a good player with those mid

to Long irons you can go out there and

find a lot of success so it's not a

surprise that if you take a look at his

course history that outside of the Mist

cut four years ago that it's been

excellent stuff top 10 last year made

the cut t36 the year before that and

then a T10 back there I believe in 2021

are all optimal performances right these

especially the t7 the T10 performances

are all going to get you to the optimal

lineup at this kind of price tag and

that's a for the outright at 100 to12 I

mean this is the kind of guy that pops

out of nowhere a lot of times when he's

playing his best golf at this kind of

track it's him going out there top five

or even winning the golf tournament so

it was a decent number compared to other

books 100 to one was very comparable to

some of the better numbers out there and

uh you can see recent form ranking isn't

popping that much right he's number 41

in the field heck even total modelto

ranking number 52 that's very fair for

this kind of price tag but it's been on

harder golf courses it's been on tracks

that don't necessarily fit his game and

when you take it as take a look at his

best performances best results here in

2024 it's been at the shorter tracks

that we've had so you can see he's

gaining a bunch of Strokes on Bido one

of the most accurate players off the tea

that we have on the PJ tour so if you're

looking for a course horse he fits that

in buckets and Spades and is why I'm

getting to him for some exposure this

week all righty guys that is all I've

got for the DFS EMB bedding preview this

week before you hoping out of here go

ahead and smash that like button for me

and also comment down below who you've

got winning this golf tournament as long

as long as they're at least 30 to one to

win the golf tournament you'll win out a

free month of my patreon if they take

home the trophy so go ahead claim your

player down below because as soon as

somebody is taken once they cannot be

taken again so make sure they're at

least 30 to one like I said give me your

best guest down below and may the best

person go out there and win I appreciate

you appreciate the support here on the

channel make sure you subscribe if you

guys haven't already so you don't miss

any of the content throughout the week

that will include some prop content over

there in the patreon maybe even a prop

preview if we end up getting the boards

posted early and also our weekly live

stream Wednesday at 7:00 p.m. eastern

time you guys can check out all the last

second info before lock so that'll

include ownership projections on there

we'll have that to compare to talk about

some of the game theory heading into

lock also go through the weather

forecast what to expect from that

tropical storm there on Thursday and

Friday how that's going to impact play

that's probably going to be a very

important segment out there for this

kind of event and then afterwards we'll

talk through all of your questions and

some of the game theory and lineup

construction notes out there for this

slate so a lot to come make sure you

guys stop by at that live stream the

best hour of the week it's a lot of fun

interacting with you guys down there and

uh making sure we're ready to go and

Crush our exposure I appreciate you like

I said before smash that like button if

you haven't already and uh let's have

ourselves a week for this Windom

championship

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