SELLING at higher levels? Post Market Report 13-Jun-24
Summary
TLDRIn the post-market report sponsored by Delta Exchange, PR Sund discusses the Nifty's performance, noting its closing just below 23,400 with the future also slightly below this mark. He highlights the Nifty future's premium being wiped out and the resistance at 23,500, which may weaken with repeated attempts. Sund also points out the underperformance of the banking sector and his profitable short straddle strategy. He mentions the significant selling by foreign and domestic institutions, suggesting a cautious outlook despite the market's bullish trend. Sund anticipates market consolidation with potential impacts from upcoming tax policy changes, and notes the broader market's positive performance despite the index's less impressive showing.
Takeaways
- đ The Nifty closed just below 23,400, with the Nifty future also closing slightly below this mark.
- đĄ Nifty future premium has been completely wiped out, now trading at a discount to the spot price by one or two points.
- đ For the fourth straight day, Nifty future attempted to move towards 23,500 but failed to close above 23,400, indicating strong resistance at this level.
- đ° The speaker made a significant profit from a short straddle in the July series, with a 100 rupee profit on 3,000 quantities, amounting to around 3.5 lakh rupees.
- đŠ Bank Nifty underperformed, despite Nifty reaching a closing all-time high, suggesting a divergence in the performance of banking stocks.
- đ FMCG stocks experienced selling, with no clear reason given, and FAs (Foreign Institutional Investors) were net sellers for more than 3,000 crores.
- đ Domestic institutions also sold for about 500 crores, leading to a net sell of more than 3,500 crores without a significant market impact.
- đ Selling activity started in the morning instead of the usual post-2 p.m. pattern, suggesting a change in market dynamics.
- đ The speaker anticipates market consolidation, with global cues indicating otherwise, and advises caution due to potential tax policy changes.
- đ The broader market performed well, with more money flowing into mutual funds, especially midcap and small cap funds, despite index-level underperformance.
- đ The speaker mentions a personal event, which limited their research, but expresses hope that viewers enjoyed the video.
Q & A
What was the closing level of the Nifty and Nifty future mentioned in the report?
-The Nifty closed just below 23,400 and the Nifty future also closed slightly below the same level.
What does the term 'Nifty future premium wiped out' imply?
-It means that the premium, which is the additional cost over the spot price for Nifty future contracts, has been completely eliminated, and now Nifty future is trading at a discount to the spot price.
Why is the resistance level of 23,500 significant in the script?
-The resistance level of 23,500 is significant because the Nifty future has repeatedly tried to move above this level for four straight days but has failed to close above it, indicating strong selling pressure at this point.
What is a 'short straddle' and why was it mentioned in the script?
-A short straddle is an options strategy where the trader sells both a call and a put option with the same strike price and expiration date. It was mentioned because the speaker used this strategy in the July series and made a profit when the market moved as expected.
How much profit did the speaker make from the short straddle in the July series?
-The speaker made a profit of more than 100 rupees per lot, with a total of 200 lots, resulting in a profit of around 3.5 lakh rupees.
What was the speaker's observation about the performance of bank Nifty compared to Nifty?
-The speaker observed that bank Nifty underperformed compared to Nifty. While Nifty reached a closing all-time high, bank Nifty was much lower, even on an intraday basis.
What was the speaker's view on the market's performance in terms of broader indices?
-The speaker mentioned that broader market indices, including midcap and small cap mutual funds, performed well, but at the index level, the performance was not very impressive.
What is the speaker's expectation for the market in the coming weeks?
-The speaker expects a consolidation in the market, with a broader range of 23,000 on the downside and 24,000 on the upside, as most of the positives have already been factored into the prices.
What factors might influence the market's direction according to the speaker?
-The speaker suggests that global cues and potential taxation issues from the BJP government, such as changes in FPA taxation or long-term and short-term capital gain tax, could influence the market's direction.
Why did the speaker mention the selling activity of foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and domestic institutions?
-The speaker mentioned the selling activity to highlight a potential cautious outlook returning to the market, as both FIIs and domestic institutions were net sellers, indicating a significant amount of selling pressure.
Outlines
đ Stock Market Analysis: Nifty and Bank Nifty Performance
In the post-market report, PR Sund discusses the day's trading activities, highlighting that the Nifty closed just below 23,400, with the Nifty future also closing slightly below this mark. He notes the Nifty future premium has been wiped out, and trading is occurring at a discount to the spot price. The script mentions the Nifty's repeated attempts to move towards 23,500 but failing to close above this resistance level. Despite this, the presenter suggests that frequent testing of the resistance could weaken it. The bank Nifty's underperformance is also pointed out, with the presenter sharing his short straddle strategy in the July series that yielded significant profits. The selling pressure in FMCG stocks and the overall market's cautious outlook due to institutional and foreign investors' selling activities are also discussed. The presenter anticipates market consolidation with bullish sentiment but advises caution due to potential taxation policy changes.
đ Market Outlook and Personal Trading Insights
The second paragraph delves into the presenter's expectations for market consolidation, suggesting a broader trading range between 23,000 and 24,000. He acknowledges that most positive factors have already been priced in and expresses a personal opinion that might be subject to change. The presenter also touches on the performance of individual stocks and the broader market, noting an influx of money into mutual funds, particularly midcap and small cap funds. Despite this, he finds the index-level performance underwhelming. The presenter mentions a personal commitment that limited his research time and concludes by thanking viewers for watching the video.
Mindmap
Keywords
đĄNifty
đĄFutures
đĄPremium
đĄDiscount
đĄResistance Level
đĄBank Nifty
đĄShort Straddle
đĄFII (Foreign Institutional Investors)
đĄDomestic Institutions
đĄMutual Funds
đĄConsolidation
Highlights
Nifty closed just below 23400, and Nifty future also closed slightly below the same mark.
Nifty future premium has been completely wiped out, now trading at a discount to the spot price.
For the fourth straight day, Nifty future attempted to move towards 23500 but failed to close above 23400.
The resistance at 23500 may weaken as Nifty repeatedly tests this level.
Bank Nifty underperformed, and banking stocks were underperforming since the morning.
A short straddle in the July series at 50,000 resulted in a profit of over 100 rupees in a single day.
The speaker made a significant profit of around 3.5 lakh rupees from a 200-lot short straddle.
Bank Nifty has not moved significantly on a close-to-close basis despite intraday highs.
FMCG stocks experienced selling, possibly due to block deals, with FAs being net sellers for over 3000 crores.
Domestic institutions also sold for about 500 crores, indicating a net sell of more than 3500 crores.
Selling pressure started in the morning, a change from the previous pattern of post-2 p.m. selling.
Both institutions and FAs turning net sellers may signal a return to a cautious market outlook.
The market is expected to consolidate with nine more trading sessions left in the June series.
The speaker anticipates a broader consolidation range of 23,000 to 24,000 for Nifty.
Positives seem to be already factored into prices, suggesting a potential plateau in the market's upward movement.
IT stocks and broader markets performed well, with more money flowing into mutual funds, especially midcap and small cap.
Despite the overall bullish market, the index level performance was not very impressive.
The speaker hints at potential upcoming taxation issues from the BJP government that could impact the market.
The speaker could not conduct extensive research due to a small function at their house.
Transcripts
hi this is PR Sund welcome to post
market report sponsored by delta.
exchange Nifty closed just below
23400 and Nifty future also so closed
slightly below
23400 there were few significant things
today number one the Nifty future
premium completely wiped out now Nifty
future is trading one or two point
discount to the spot price that's number
one number two today for the fourth
straight day Nifty future tried to move
towards
23500 and 234 470 480 that was the range
for the last three trading session uh
the fourth day why it was around
23410 so for fourth straight day during
the intraday Nifty future crossed
23400 but could not close above
23400 so every time it Clos below 23400
and today uh in fact today
23,000 399.99 that was the actual
closing for spot Nifty a future Nifty
for about one or two point
discount so uh this shows that you know
there is a good amount of selling at
23,500 seems to be a good resistance but
however as I told you earlier the more
number of times it goes and hits
23500 that is not a strong resistance
that will become a weak resistance so it
depends upon the global cues whether
that will be taken out sooner or
later and today surprisingly the bank
Nifty
underperformed and banking stocks since
today morning it was
underperforming uh I have taken some
short straddle in July series you know
uh 50,000 short straddle today just in
one day there's a more than 100 rupees
profit I
think uh you know I think uh uh uh I had
about 3,000 quantity so 3,000 quantity
how many Lots is that 200 Lots I think
200 lots and uh profit was around 3.5
lakh rupees I think so uh more than that
so it was a fantastic
profit and in fact for the last I think
I've taken this tradle about uh few days
four five days before and right now I'm
sitting with about 15 lakh rupees profit
for a 3,000 quantity of50 ,000 short SLE
the bank Nifty making very big move
intraday but on a close to close basis
for the last four five trading session
it has not gone anywhere Nifty is moving
higher but not the bank Nifty so if you
can remember you know today itself uh
Nifty is at a closing all-time high but
whereas Bank Nifty I think it's uh much
lower even the intraday also uh Bank
Nifty I think it has gone beyond 51,000
if I'm not wrong so Bank Nifty is
clearly underperforming and today the
selling came in fmcg stocks also I do
not know if there is any uh block deal
or bul deal uh today fa data is still
shocking so faas were net sellers for
more than 3,000 crores the domestic
institutions have also sold for about
500 CR so there is a net sell of more
than 3,500 crores but still and nothing
was reflected in markets and in fact for
the last three trading session the
selling came after 2 p.m. but today the
selling came in the morning
itself then after that it was just uh
consolidating so now with uh both
institutions turning net Sellers and
faas are selling huge quantities maybe
the cautious Outlook May return to the
market but the global cues are uh
indicating
otherwise so two weeks are over uh for
the June series we have two more weeks
one public holiday so we have only nine
more trading sessions for this June
series the markets are likely to
consolidate so as I told you earlier
Nifty closed between 23,000 and
23,600 and uh markets are looking
bullish there is no doubt about it but
uh this eforia as I told you uh this is
a honeymoon period so everything will be
looking very well so wait for BJP
government to come out with some
taxation issue either FPA taxation or
long-term short-term capital gain tax
removed will be made into nominal tax so
therefore you know going forward I'm
expecting a consolidation maybe in a
broader range maybe 23,000 on the
downside 24,000 on the
upside uh I think most of the positives
have already been factored in in the
prices so that's my opinion uh who knows
maybe I may be wrong uh today it stocks
did well uh broader markets did well
actually as I told you more and more
money is flowing into the mutual funds
probably they are flowing into midcap
and small cap mutual funds so broader
Market is doing well but at index level
uh I would say this is not a very uh
impressive performance so anyway so
there's a small function in my house so
therefore I could not do a lot of
research uh so anyway we will see
tomorrow morning I hope you enjoyed
watching this video thank you for
watching
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