原重庆市长黄奇帆2022年就预言中国房地产由盛转衰,十个指标都达到拐点,只有脑子进水的人会相信政府房地产政策出来之后,房地产行业还是蒸蒸日上
Summary
TLDRThe transcript discusses the new phase of China's real estate market, marked by a population ceiling, urbanization nearing saturation, aging demographics, and a significant surplus of unsold housing. It highlights the oversupply, high property prices, and the need for developers to adapt to a new normal with lower demand and increased financial caution, moving away from past speculative behaviors.
Takeaways
- 🏗️ China's real estate market has entered a new phase with indicators showing a turning point, suggesting a significant shift in the market dynamics.
- 📉 The population of China is considered to have reached its peak at around 1.4 billion, with a decline expected, affecting the demand for housing.
- 🌆 Urbanization in China has reached approximately 65%, comparable to the 75% in Europe and the U.S., indicating limited room for further growth.
- 👵 Aging population in China is increasing, projected to reach over 30% by 2035, which could lead to a decrease in demand for housing as the elderly typically require less space.
- 🏢 There is a significant inventory of unsold housing, with 600 million square meters of new homes remaining unsold for over a year.
- 🏠 A substantial amount of housing, about 60 billion square meters, is vacant and not used for living, which could flood the market if released.
- 📈 The average housing space per person in China has reached 50 square meters, which is considered the ceiling for developed countries, indicating a saturation point.
- 🏗️ Construction volume has seen a dramatic increase, with a 16-fold rise from 2000 to 2017, reaching a level that may not be sustainable.
- 💰 Land and property prices have quadrupled over the past 20 years, creating a high barrier for new entrants and a potential bubble risk.
- 🔨 Infrastructure and urban development, including old city renovations and public facilities like schools and hospitals, have reached a saturation point with limited new demand.
- 💼 The real estate industry's high debt levels, with many developers having a debt ratio of over 90%, indicate a high risk and potential for financial instability.
Q & A
What is the current stage of China's real estate market according to the transcript?
-The transcript indicates that China's real estate market has entered a new phase where it has reached a turning point, with a significant shift in market indicators.
What is the population ceiling mentioned in the script, and what does it imply for the real estate market?
-The population ceiling mentioned is 1.4 billion people. It implies that the potential for growth in demand for housing may be limited as the population is not expected to increase significantly.
How does the urbanization rate in China compare to that of Europe and the United States, and what is its implication for housing demand?
-China's urbanization rate has reached 65%, which is almost equivalent to the 75% of Europe and the United States. This suggests that the potential for further urbanization-driven housing demand is limited, as most of the rural youth and middle-aged population has already been urbanized.
What is the impact of aging population on the housing market as described in the transcript?
-The aging population, with the percentage of elderly people expected to rise to 30% by 2035 and possibly 40-50% in the future, will likely reduce the demand for new housing, as older people generally need fewer houses and increased mortality rates will release houses back into the market.
What is the issue with the inventory of unsold houses in China, and how does it affect the real estate market?
-There is a significant inventory of unsold houses, amounting to 600 million square meters, which, if not absorbed by the market, could lead to a significant reduction in demand for new housing construction.
How much of the housing stock in China is vacant and what does this signify for the market?
-About 20% of the housing stock, or 60 billion square meters, is vacant and used for investment purposes. This high level of vacancy could indicate an oversupply in the market and a potential decrease in demand for new housing.
What is the current per capita housing area in China, and how does it compare to developed countries?
-The per capita housing area in China has reached 50 square meters, which is the same as the ceiling in developed countries like Europe and the United States. This suggests that there is limited room for further growth in housing demand.
What is the significance of the construction volume growth in China's real estate market over the past years?
-The construction volume has grown exponentially, with a 16-fold increase from 2000 to 2017, reaching a point where it equals half of the global construction volume. This indicates a potential oversupply and a ceiling in terms of construction capacity.
How have land and property prices in China changed over the past 20 years, and what does this trend imply for the market?
-Land and property prices have increased by 4 to 20 times over the past 20 years, depending on the location. This rapid increase has created a high leverage environment for real estate developers, which may not be sustainable in the long term.
What are the implications of the completed infrastructure and public facilities for the future demand in the real estate market?
-The completion of infrastructure and public facilities, such as schools and hospitals, suggests that there is limited future demand for expansion in these areas, which could affect the overall demand for housing.
What is the current debt situation of real estate developers in China, and how does it impact the market?
-The debt situation of real estate developers is high, with a debt ratio of around 90%. This high leverage could limit the ability of developers to take on further debt and may lead to a restructuring of the real estate market.
Outlines
🏗️ China's Real Estate Market Enters a New Phase
The speaker discusses the new phase of China's real estate market, highlighting several key indicators signaling a turning point. The population has reached a ceiling of 1.4 billion, and urbanization rates have plateaued at 65%, comparable to the 75% in Europe and the U.S. due to the extraction of the rural youth and middle-aged population. Aging is also a significant factor, with the elderly population expected to rise from 20% to over 30% by 2035, and potentially reaching 40-50% by 2050-2060, which will reduce the demand for housing. Additionally, there is a significant inventory of unsold housing and vacant properties, amounting to 6 billion square meters, which could lead to a significant decrease in demand for new housing if housing prices stabilize. The speaker also notes that the per capita housing area has reached the global ceiling of 50 square meters, and the construction volume has seen exponential growth, making it unsustainable to continue at the current pace.
📉 Analysis of China's Real Estate Market Challenges
This paragraph delves into the challenges faced by China's real estate market, emphasizing that the difficulties are not solely due to government policies but are a result of long-term market dynamics. The speaker refutes the idea that government intervention is the primary cause of the current hardships, arguing that the market has reached its limits in terms of demand and supply. The speaker points out that land and property prices have increased dramatically over the past 20 years, and the behavior of real estate developers, who have been accustomed to high leverage and rapid turnover, is no longer viable. The speaker also mentions that infrastructure, urban renewal, and public facilities such as schools and hospitals have reached saturation points, and the financial leverage of real estate companies has reached its peak, suggesting that a new normal for the real estate market and developers' operational strategies is emerging.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Housing Market
💡Population Ceiling
💡Urbanization Rate
💡Aging Population
💡Housing Inventory
💡Idle Housing
💡Per Capita Housing Space
💡Construction Volume
💡Land and Property Prices
💡Renovation and Infrastructure
💡Educational and Public Facilities
💡Debt Ratio
Highlights
The Chinese real estate market has entered a new phase with a turning point, indicating a significant change in the market's direction.
China's population is considered to be at its ceiling, with a current estimate of 1.4 billion people and a declining trend.
Urbanization rate in China has reached 65%, comparable to the 75% in Europe and the United States, with limited room for growth.
Aging population in China is expected to increase to over 30% by 2035, potentially reaching 40-50% by 2050-2060, affecting housing demand.
A significant inventory of unsold housing by developers amounts to 6 billion square meters, indicating a surplus in the market.
Approximately 20% of purchased housing by the public is idle and used for investment purposes, contributing to the housing surplus.
The total housing stock in China is around 400 billion square meters, with 60 billion square meters of it being vacant.
The expectation of housing price increases has led to a speculative bubble in the housing market.
Per capita housing space in China has reached 50 square meters, which is considered the ceiling for developed countries.
Annual housing investment in China has seen a significant increase, reaching a peak in recent years that may not be sustainable.
The construction volume of housing in China has grown exponentially, reaching a point where it equals half of the global construction.
Land and property prices in China have quadrupled over the past 20 years, setting a new standard for valuation.
Developers' behavior of hoarding properties and land due to the expectation of price appreciation is no longer viable.
Urban renewal and infrastructure development have reached a saturation point, with limited future demand.
Educational and public facilities, such as universities and hospitals, have reached their capacity and do not require further expansion.
The financial situation of real estate developers, with high debt ratios nearing 90%, indicates a ceiling in leverage capabilities.
The new phase of real estate development in China requires adjustments in the operational methods of developers to adapt to the changing market conditions.
Transcripts
如果现在还认为中国房产
只要政府政策刺激
房产商调整行为方式
又可以变成蒸蒸日上啊
还以为我们16亿
还要到20亿或者什么
那都脑子急急死光了
对吧哈哈
那么现在我要跟你说
就你刚才说的
嗯眼下中国房地产市场
嗯进入了新阶段
嗯这个新阶段
中国房地产这个指标
嗯出现了拐点
所以都拐了
哎都拐了
有整个都拐
整个拐了
大家基本上认为14亿人是天花板
总之人口在减少
嗯这是第一个概念
第二呢中国的城市化率
嗯
已经到了65了
几乎等同于欧洲美国的75
嗯原因是什么呢
因为中国的城市化率
实际上是把农村里边的青年人
嗯中年人给抽出来了
对这要增长
也就增加五六个点到头
对这第二个脂肪
第三个呢
中国的老龄化
现在再加上去年
已经到百分之20 一
预计2035年
嗯会到30以上
甚至二零五零六零以后
到百分之四五十都可能
嗯那么这样一来的话
老龄越多呢
他需要房子越少
嗯反而死亡率增加呢
会退出许多房子来
所以这就三个
都影响住房结构的
都会对新房子需求大幅下降哦
第四个指标呢
到去年为止
中国的房产商
嗯手中造好的房子
一年以上没卖掉的
嗯有6亿
哎呦
这就是一个库存
嗯叫一手房库存啊
然后中国老百姓买下来的房子
没住闲置
只会投资
有20% 那么中国这些年来总的房屋呢
400亿平方米
新建的商品房
90年以后
嗯卖掉的
在老百姓手中的
有300 亿
嗯这300亿呢
有60亿平方米是空关闲置的
嗯那么这种闲置在市场
如果每年涨20%
35年翻一翻
嗯那么我就算有一套房子
两套房子闲置
我也不怕
我觉得再涨价心里是高兴的
嗯房产商房子没卖掉
但是房子再涨价
他会觉得没卖掉反而划算
但是在房价如果不涨了
嗯
这个库存都是积压
会造成新造房需求会大幅萎缩
这就第四个指标了
对
第五整个中国目前人均住房
嗯 19年统计48平方米
然后到了2,000年
已经到50
全世界发达国家
欧洲美国
嗯人均50就是天花板
40年前我们5平方
现在变成50
嗯
上了天花板了
嗯
这个再空洞的需求
想泡沫化需求都泡不出来的
嗯这就是第五个指标了
嗯那么第六个指标呢
就是年度的投资
2,000年是1亿
嗯
然后呢到了2零一零年
10亿到了两01617年
17亿这个17年里边
灶房的建设量
嗯
涨了16倍
20年翻了四番
嗯
也是个天花板
到了嗯
因为到了16亿
已经等于多少你知道吗
嗯全世界70多亿人
嗯
去年嗯
或者前年
或者2,000年
新建房子
嗯
就是20亿平方
中国等于全世界的一半
也就全世界中国之外造了20亿
中国造了17亿
中国14亿人
凭什么 20%的人
凭什么如果你有这个需求
你在过去30年有这个需求
你去扩张
扩张到了人均50了
你已经人均50了
还这么造
没这个可能
也没这个需求
也没这个内在要求了
这就是讲了六个指标了吧
嗯三个是人口指标在
土出房子
而不是增加需求
嗯三个是现状的
房产的量的积压也好
人均数也好
或者建设量也好
嗯好
六个嗯
然后再来个
第七个
就是中国的土地价格和房产的价格
嗯 20年翻了四番
嗯你一定要知道
上海最贵的地方
衡山路那时候的房子是6,000多块
算7,000块
涨20倍的话
也就是变成14万啊
现在那边的房子就是14万
15万所以就是20倍
那么反过来
在北京王府井
最高的地段
你用20年前去算
现在也是
也是总归16倍以上
那么你讲新疆乌鲁木齐二道桥
那么在2,000年的时候
嗯他那个地方就是700多块啊
一平方嗯
那么20年以后呢
一万几千块
嗯两万块也到了啊
所以我讲这个话的意思
整个中大
全国
全国在原来技术上
20年翻四番
嗯基本如此
嗯土地价格
嗯也是
每一亩从100万
嗯变成1千万
变成2千万
嗯也是十倍十几倍的涨
那么
当一个地方有这个三年五年翻一番
二十年翻四番的趋势存在的时候
所有房产商都会囤房
嗯哪怕造了房子卖不掉
过个5年就涨价了
嗯都会囤地
草地嗯
所以大家都不怕库存
不怕规模
然后就拼命的融资贷款
这个规律
是前面那个20年如此的7个指标
嗯这个温床给宠出来的
嗯给惯出来的
嗯
这是讲了7个指标
第八个指标为旧房改造
城市旧城改造
基础设施建设
大规模的
也差不多了啊
差不多没有这个需求了
第九个呢
城市的学校
医院嗯
也到头了
现在大学过
剩了因为在80年
我们大学生在校生的占地嗯
人均只有10平方
嗯
教育部当时定了个制度
大学在校生人均学校用地50平方
嗯
现在整个中国 3,000多个大学
在校生人均50平方已经到了
嗯所以也不需要再扩张
对也不会变成4,000个大学
所以教育公共设施也到头
这就讲了第九个了
第十个指标
就说把那配套设施都到头了
哎到头了
第十个金融
房地产金融
中国的房地产商负债率都在90%
全世界你总不能零资产
所以房产商杠杆从10%
二十三十的负债率
到八十九十的负债率
上天花板了
再过10年也不会变成105的
嗯在这个意义上讲呢
不管是举债
还是公共设施
基础设施
旧城改造
嗯还是房产的四五个指标
还是老龄化城市人群这个概念
到这我们可以这么说
新阶段新常态要出现了
所以现在我们说房地产出现的困境
有人去把它归结为是我们地方政府啊
国家的房地产调控政策过头了
太集中啊
太厉害了
把它给打压了
嗯这是不公平的
嗯是不合理的
是不对的
嗯要从中级的供需求关系
哎从这供需求关系这30年的演变
哎对来看
他不是政府调控过头
造成现在的困难啊
因为这房产商85年 90年
嗯或者95年
嗯或者05年 10年
他们都这么个行为方式
嗯为什么当时不破产
这回集中的龙头企业都破产呢
嗯原因就是
当你这样的行为方式
在90年代末
新世纪初
2010年
在扩张的时候
在45年翻番
10年翻两番的势
头下他们没问题
高举债高周转
嗯
超级大盘
炒地皮
造轮盘都是可以循环
可以循环
但是到了这会
你继续一根筋的
按这个逻辑来
你就要碰壁了
所以这个就叫做理性的分析
客观形式啊
那么下一步呢
今后5年10年
中国房产开发的新常态
嗯房产商运行方式的新常态
嗯就应该出现五个调整
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