Reimagining demand forecasting in the supply chain
Summary
TLDR本集《大创意与供应链》节目中,主持人Ann Robinson和Angel Mendez邀请了Flex的首席供应链与采购官Lynn Terrell,共同探讨了供应链的演变以及半导体市场的现状。Lynn分享了自己在供应链领域的丰富经验,以及在COVID-19期间如何带领团队应对挑战,强调了供应链的弹性和区域化的重要性。此外,Lynn提出了一个名为“真实需求联盟”的创新概念,旨在通过第三方数据分析,更准确地预测需求,以减少供应链中断。节目最后,Lynn表示如果成为全球供应链首席官,她将优先推动“真实需求”计划,以改善全球供应链管理。
Takeaways
- 🌐 供应链的全球化和复杂性:Flex公司作为全球供应链的一部分,展示了供应链的复杂性和全球性,涉及24亿美元的支出和全球约9000名员工。
- 🛠️ 供应链中断的挑战:提到了关税、物流中断和短缺问题,特别是对汽车行业的影响,以及EV和自动驾驶技术的发展。
- 🔄 供应链的弹性和区域化:强调了在供应链中增强弹性的重要性,并讨论了区域化趋势,这可以减少物流中断并更接近最终客户。
- 📈 供应链管理的创新:Lynn Terrell介绍了“真实需求联盟”(True Demand Coalition)的概念,这是一个旨在通过共享数据和分析来改善供应链预测和决策的新倡议。
- 💼 Lynn Terrell的领导经验:作为Flex的首席供应链和采购官,Terrell分享了他在供应链管理方面的丰富经验,包括在Avnet的20多年职业生涯。
- 🤝 合作与协作的重要性:Terrell强调了在供应链中各个利益相关者之间合作的重要性,以及如何通过共享信息和资源来提高整个行业的效率。
- 🌟 供应链的透明度和数据驱动决策:讨论了Flex公司如何利用数字化供应链提供的数据来做出更好的决策,并在供应链中实现更高的透明度。
- 🚀 供应链中断后的快速适应:COVID-19大流行期间,Flex公司如何迅速适应远程工作环境,并保持供应链的运转。
- 💡 供应链中的创新解决方案:提出了一个独立第三方的概念,该第三方可以分析行业报告和宏观经济影响,以合理化供应链并提供更好的信息。
- 🌱 供应链中的人性化管理:Terrell分享了如何通过定期的团队会议和个人关怀来加强团队的凝聚力和支持。
- 🔮 供应链的未来展望:讨论了供应链管理的未来趋势,包括如何通过技术创新和更好的预测来减少未来的供应链中断。
Q & A
Lynn Terrell在Flex公司担任什么职位?
-Lynn Terrell是Flex公司的首席供应链和采购官。
Lynn在加入Flex之前在哪家公司工作,并且担任什么职位?
-Lynn在加入Flex之前在Avnet公司工作,担任的最后一职位是Avnet United和Velocity的总裁,负责全球业务单元,包括一级EMS和OEM客户、供应商战略以及创新供应链项目。
Lynn在Flex的主要职责有哪些?
-Lynn在Flex的职责包括直接和间接采购、货运与物流、库存管理、战略供应链解决方案开发以及与客户的供应链项目。
Flex公司的供应链规模有多大?
-Flex公司的供应链规模约为240亿美元,拥有约9000名员工,并且管理着大约一千家客户的供应链。
Lynn如何描述当前的供应链状态?
-Lynn认为当前供应链状态复杂,存在战术问题如关税、物流中断或短缺,以及需要增强供应链的弹性和区域化的趋势。
Lynn认为如何提高供应链的弹性?
-Lynn认为通过与客户紧密合作,了解他们的业务目标,并共同推动供应链的弹性是关键。这包括从材料清单开始,考虑潜在的挑战,以及制定合适的制造战略。
Lynn在COVID-19疫情期间学到了哪些领导经验?
-Lynn学到了在远程环境中快速适应、团队合作、果断决策以及关心团队成员的个人和专业挑战的重要性。
Lynn如何描述True Demand Coalition的构想?
-True Demand Coalition是一个独立的第三方构想,旨在通过分析行业报告和宏观经济影响来合理化供应链,提供更好的信息,帮助OEM、EMS、分销商和供应商做出更好的决策。
True Demand Coalition目前有多少成员公司参与?
-True Demand Coalition目前有25家成员公司参与。
如果Lynn是世界供应链官,她会优先考虑什么来改变世界供应链?
-Lynn会优先考虑True Demand的理念,因为它不仅适用于电子行业,还可以应用于任何行业,帮助更好地预测需求,匹配供需,有效管理复杂的供应链。
Outlines
😀 供应链行业领袖对话
本段介绍了视频节目《Big Ideas and Supply Chain》的主持人Ann Robinson和Angel Mendez,以及嘉宾Lynn Terrell,Flex公司的首席供应链和采购官。讨论的主题集中在供应链的演变,尤其是半导体市场。Lynn Terrell分享了自己的职业背景,包括在Avnet的20年经历和在Flex的角色,他负责直接和间接采购、货运与物流、库存管理以及与客户共同开发的供应链解决方案。
🚀 疫情后的供应链挑战与机遇
Lynn Terrell讨论了疫情后供应链面临的挑战,包括关税、物流中断和半导体短缺等问题。他强调了供应链的复杂性,并提到了汽车行业在电动车和自动驾驶技术发展中的增长趋势。同时,Lynn提到了供应链的弹性和区域化的重要性,以及如何与客户合作提高供应链的弹性,包括材料清单的审查和制造策略的优化。
🌟 疫情对领导力和团队的影响
Lynn Terrell反思了疫情对个人、团队和Flex作为供应商的影响。他分享了如何迅速适应远程工作环境,并通过每日电话会议与团队保持沟通,确保供应链的决策和执行。他还提到了如何通过团队合作和个人关怀来支持团队成员,以及如何通过快速决策和调整来应对不断变化的市场条件。
🛠️ 供应链管理的创新与未来
Lynn Terrell讨论了供应链管理中的创新,特别是如何通过更好地预测需求和提供信息来应对半导体行业的挑战。他提到了供应链中的供需不匹配问题,以及如何通过数据和分析来改善决策。Lynn提出了一个独立第三方的概念,以帮助合理化供应链信息,从而为OEM、EMS、分销商和供应商提供更好的决策支持。
🌐 构建真正的需求联盟
Lynn Terrell分享了他发起的'True Demand Coalition'的构想,这是一个旨在通过分析数据来提供更准确的需求预测的联盟。他解释了这个联盟的目标是为供应链中的所有参与者提供一个非竞争性的、协作的环境,以便共享数据并作出更好的投资决策。目前,已有25家公司参与,旨在通过这个平台来减少未来的供应链中断。
🌍 作为世界供应链官的愿景
在视频的最后,Lynn Terrell被问及如果他是世界供应链官,他的首要任务会是什么。他回答说,他会推动'True Demand'的概念,因为它不仅适用于电子行业,还可以应用于任何行业,帮助更有效地管理复杂的供应链,从而对世界产生积极影响。他强调了合作和共享信息的重要性,以预测需求并平滑未来的供应链波动。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡供应链
💡半导体市场
💡合同制造
💡COVID-19
💡供应链弹性
💡区域化
💡需求预测
💡供应链中断
💡供应链创新
💡合作竞争
Highlights
Lynn Terrell作为Flex的首席供应链和采购官,分享了他在供应链领域的丰富经验。
Lynn在2019年加入Flex之前,在Avnet拥有超过20年的全球电子分销经验。
Flex面临的挑战包括关税、物流中断和半导体短缺等实际问题。
供应链领域正日益关注如何增强供应链的弹性和区域化。
Lynn强调与客户紧密合作,了解他们的目标,共同推动供应链的弹性。
Flex拥有全球规模和覆盖范围,支持客户的供应链决策。
COVID-19大流行期间,Lynn和团队如何迅速适应远程工作环境。
Lynn介绍了他们如何通过每日电话会议和决策制定来应对COVID-19带来的挑战。
团队如何通过每周的欢乐时光增强个人和专业层面的支持和团结。
Lynn分享了他在供应链中断期间学到的关键教训和Flex如何作为供应商伙伴发生变化。
讨论了电子行业中需求预测准确性的挑战以及如何应对。
Lynn提出了一个独立第三方的想法,以更合理化地预测和管理供应链。
介绍了“真实需求联盟”的成立,旨在通过分析数据来改善供应链预测。
Lynn对“真实需求联盟”的潜力感到兴奋,认为它可以改善整个电子行业的预测和决策。
作为世界供应链官,Lynn的首要任务将是推动“真实需求”倡议,以改善全球供应链。
讨论了如何通过协作和共享数据来减轻未来的供应链中断。
Transcripts
foreign
[Music]
good day and welcome to this edition of
big ideas and supply chain my name is
Ann Robinson and I'm the chief strategy
officer at canaxis today I'm joined by
my friend and co-host Angel Mendez a
supply chain innovator that many of you
will recognize that name and our guest
today is Lynn Terrell the chief supply
chain and procurement officer for Flex
Angel today it's a really important
conversation as we're looking at this
evolution of supply chain and everything
that's happened over the last few years
and and really talking about
markets particularly the semiconductor
Market today's guest really brings a
very important conversation to the table
absolutely and hello Lynn welcome to Big
Ideas and supply chain
um we're thrilled and get access to have
you uh and I know our audience will get
quite a bit out of our conversation
today
um you know we've been wanting to
feature great leaders uh folks who have
the chief in their title and and have
incredible experiences to share with the
audience and you're certainly at the top
of our list so thanks again for joining
um I want to start off by
um just asking you to introduce yourself
a little bit and tell the audience a
little bit about you know your
background and and uh and what you've
been able to do in your career to get to
this rule that's so important for the
industry well thank you Angel and Anne
and it's a pleasure to be with you today
so as you said I'm Chief procurement and
supply chain officer at Flex
I joined Flex in October of 2019 after
spending over 20 years at Avnet a global
Electronics distributor where he had
numerous roles at Avnet customer facing
supplier facing managing the supply
chain my last role at Avnet was
president of Avenue United and velocity
which was a global business unit that
looked after the tier one EMS and OEM
customers our supplier strategies and
our Innovative supply chain programs so
I had the benefit of being a supplier to
flex prior to joining the flex
organization
and when I joined him uh again October
of 2019 I thought my biggest challenge
at the time would be really going into
the manufacturing side of the equation
of the electronics ecosystem
obviously things changed a few months
later when covid hit but to tell you
first a little bit about my role I have
responsibility for direct and indirect
procurement
Freight and Logistics Inventory
management our strategic Supply Chain
Solutions development and our supply
chain programs with our customers so
that's really the end-to-end supply
chain program for Flex it's about a 24
billion dollar spent
we have about 9 000 employees in global
Pro German and supply chain across Flex
globally supporting our customers and we
have about a thousand customers whose
unique Supply chains we manage and so
you know Flex obviously uh one of the
most complex and sophisticated Global
Supply chains in the world so I was real
I was thrilled to join the company and
then bring that expertise and knowledge
I had through the distribution market
and calling on the EMS customers in the
Tier 1 oems and bringing that skill set
to the flex organization so Lynn what is
the state of its post covid ever
disruptive world what is the state of
contract manufacturing these things
well I'll say that it's never boring we
still have numerous challenges we're
addressing every day and it's a bit
complex I would say there's two aspects
right now affecting our supply chain
the first is what I would consider more
the Tactical issues when it comes to
tariffs or Logistics disruptions or you
know we're still experiencing a number
of shortages uh from kind of the larger
geometry nodes that are impacting a lot
of our our customers and especially you
know when you look at like in our
automotive industry with the growth in
EV and autonomous as well as other Mega
trends and then of course we're seeing
some excess inventory in some of our
other segments as a result of the
changing market conditions
and I would say if you look at the the
second aspect that we're seeing in you
know supply chain right now it's a more
increased focus on driving resiliency
into a supply chain and and you also
hear a lot about regionalization and
we're actually starting to see more
traction in that area there's a cost
when you're driving a resilient supply
chain uh in you I kind of look at it a
little bit like it's an insurance cost
you never hope you never have to use it
but there is a cost associated with
having it and so we want to really work
closely with our customers to understand
what their goals are for their business
and how you can how we can work together
to drive more resiliency into their
supply chain that starts with you know
the bill of materials where you're
looking at where you might have uh
challenges because you have a unique
technology or a sole source device
coming from a geography fee that has you
know potentially challenges as well as
what the manufacturing strategy should
be you know is it smart for a particular
industry to have a single manufacturing
strategy to take care to take advantage
of global scale and scope and the cost
associated with that and transport their
end products around the world or does a
more regionalized strategy make sense in
which case then you're reducing
Logistics disruptions and getting closer
to your end customers so we're we work
closely with our customers to understand
what those challenges can be we've got
some unique tools available to us that
we use to help our customers make those
decisions and of course at Flex we have
the benefit of the global scale and
scope and and our footprint that helps
us be able to support those decisions
when they're made Lynn we're going to go
look forward here in a moment uh you
know you mentioned the word Megatron so
I'm going to be really curious to you to
talk a little bit about what you see by
way of innovation but let's take a step
back and look at the last couple of
years
you join at the end of 2019 a few months
later the most significant widest most
Global the deepest supply chain crisis
of record arrives at our doorstep
um and and two years go by I'm sure you
have learned a ton I am super curious
um how are you different as a leader
having had that experience how is your
team different and how is flex different
as a supplier partner to the industry
can you spend a little time reflecting
for us on your key lessons and and what
what has come from all of that for you
yeah it's very interesting experience in
in thinking back on it you realize where
you learn the most and where you had the
most impact but for the majority of my
career I was traveling extensively you
know going to facilities around the
world meeting with customers meeting
with suppliers and all of a sudden
everything came to a halt you know from
one week to the next and what you know
we were very fortunate because of the
Technologies available to us to
immediately go into a remote meeting
environment and working with the teams
one of the things we did myself and my
leadership team as well as some of our
extended leaders when kovid first hit
and we started this actually in January
27th of 2020. we started daily calls
with our extended leadership team and I
like to point out it was 5 30 in the
morning my time time and I was not a
morning person at the time I've since
kind of transitioned to one but we'd
have a call with our extended teams and
and we would say okay what are you
hearing from the media what are you
hearing from local governments what are
you hearing from customers and suppliers
in in seeing as this is you know moving
forward and covid was you know moving
across the world because it's Flex our
facilities shut down and reopened you
know and we brought in PPE and changed
the the way in which we manufactured to
enable social distancing but our
suppliers were doing having the same as
were a customer so we were like
generating these ideas during these
daily calls to be able to understand how
we can manage our supply chain with less
information and being relatively new to
flex I wanted to make sure I was not
thinking like I would have as a
distributor but under standing some of
the potential consequences so we I
wanted to make sure everybody on the
team was heard because you know there
was this wasn't a math formula to solve
it was you know making the best
decisions we could under those
circumstances so we actually formed uh
we created a meeting agenda for the
meeting which was discuss debate decide
because we said early we did not want to
spend too much time admiring the problem
we needed to make decisions that we
could execute on for the next 24 hours
and we could have our 9 000 supply chain
Specialists know what actions to take
for the next 24 hours oh and by the way
if we learn something new and needed to
adjust course we would do so the next
day and I think that was a huge learning
in for the for our organization we kind
of really changed to make sure we're
very decisive in our decision making we
want to empower our teams to to make
those decisions because it has been you
know so many changes over the past three
years and I think that was a really good
learning how we could transition very
effectively into the remote environment
a second point when you say how did I
change
um
I certainly was humbled uh by the entire
organization and how hard people worked
and how we're working together to make
those decisions I also was uh concerned
especially you know throughout the
majority of you know 2020 just about
what everybody on my team was going
through personally and professionally as
we were dealing with such an impactful
event and flex being you know a critical
manufacturer we needed to keep our you
know our Lines Moving
but we also had to take care of our
families and our children and our pets
and our parents
um so we we started a weekly happy hour
as well with my team and it was once a
week we did it you know for many months
and it was kind of a a check-in how is
everybody doing what challenges are we
having
um and I I'd say I think we all got
closer and it was more personalized
because it was such a regular meeting as
opposed to you know a quarterly qbr
where we get together and have dinner
and so I think as a team we we came
together and really supported each other
both on the personal and the
professional basis
so huge takeaways there right you talk
about uh empathy you talk about humility
you talk also about agility really the
ability to get teams collaborating
faster uh and and my supposition is
you're going to carry those on even
though a lot of the covet effects are
beginning to to attenuate my sense that
would be that you're probably going to
have to use those muscles every day
because Supply chains never stop and
others neither do risks right now those
disruptions
um that you spoke about not all of those
disruptions have dissipated and one of
the you know the luxuries of being in
the position of seeing multiple
different Supply chains similar to
yourself is that we do see that these
disruptions are are continuing in
certain industries or with certain types
uh
my understanding is in some
circumstances we're seeing A supplier
base that's still operating as they did
during covid but a customer expectation
that is now sort of that mentality is
shifted to a post-covered world and
there's really a mismatch between supply
and demand are you experiencing those
kinds of things yes we're still having
uh those challenges and I think you know
part of what we view is the difference
between you know what we many of us grew
up doing where our our supply chains
were built on low-cost inefficiencies
and they worked very well under Ideal
Market conditions and so that was the
the manner that so many people went to
Market
now you're having you know again
customers wanting a more resilient
supply chain in some cases being
hesitant about the additional cost but
you also look at this proliferation of
electronic content into uh or companies
and products that that didn't have it
before you know for example you have a
mattress company uh sold single Source
Product Company
yet their technology has advanced with
the mattresses where they can't sell a
single mattress without all of the
electronics around it and so you you
also have professionals who grew up in
different Industries who are who didn't
necessarily experience previous
semiconductor Cycles where Investments
made today create output 18 months from
now so that difference in the ability to
forecast demand and the fact that our
you know the oems still want to operate
with you know a lot of flexibility low
lead time competitive pricing but
suppliers are recognizing because of the
disruptions that took place they need
longer visibility they need you know the
the Investments to make sure that they
come through you know 18 months after
they they make an investment in in more
capacity that that meets meets the
demand and that's one of the the biggest
challenges I think we face in the
electron Linux industry is that ability
to forecast demand accurately
and provide information both upstream
and downstream about what constraints
could happen in the future based on the
technology changes taking place so
Celine playing on that theme even some
more many of our listeners are in fact
very concerned about geopolitical risks
as they might affect the semiconductor
industry they're concerned about the
shifts that are going on in geography in
order to get risk built into a risk
mitigation built into the semiconductor
supply chain uh your point about the
cycle taking time for capacity to come
online and alleviate some of the real
constraints particularly the higher
levels of Technology within the spectrum
of semiconductors from your experience
coming into this conversation with all
those years of of understanding the
dynamic of semiconductors in particular
by Electronics in general uh what do we
do about that when you say we need to
plan better what kinds of things come to
mind that our supply chain audience gets
think about in order to deal with with
that challenge
well it's it's really interesting
question uh I want to say about 18
months ago I was sitting on a Friday
afternoon in my office thinking about
all of the challenges we were facing
that they were very similar to the
challenges and the responses that we had
faced before when encountering you know
A disruption and supply and demand and
moving into a shortage Market
and typically you know it we we've seen
it right demand outstrip Supply
Investments are made to increase
capacity but while we're dealing with
shortages there's some over ordering
going on there's some you know companies
who are trying to hedge their bets
working with more than one supplier or
more than one EMS trying to get their
product
um and then Investments are made when
the when the the capacity comes
available and parts are more free then
we see the forecast decrease a little
bit and we deal with excess for you know
three or four quarters
in
you know at Flex We are so data Rich uh
we're very fortunate in our digitalized
supply chain that allows us such great
visibility and I was thinking at the
time how we weren't using our data any
differently than how we had historically
done so and I had an idea and it's in
its simplest form is why wouldn't we
look at using an independent third party
who could look at information such as
industry reports on growth targets or
macro in you know macroeconomic impacts
to be able to rationalize the supply
chain to provide better information both
upstream and downstream so people can
make better designed oems can make
better design decisions knowing what
potentially might be impactful in the in
the future semiconductor and ipd
suppliers can make better Investments
decisions no knowing what their their
true demand is so I had this idea and uh
and and one of the things you know all
of our data is a manufacture part number
connected to an oem part number that we
know what that is going into so that the
elements are there so I had an idea and
I thought it was a really good idea so I
spent a week and talking to my husband
about it and uh getting really excited
and he's a former hockey player so after
a few days he said maybe you should talk
to someone else that could help you with
my data
um so I called uh yossi chefi from MIT
who's a friend of mine and I talked to
him about the concept and after a few
meetings we had he said you know Lynn
the the technology is there there is the
artificial intelligence and machine
learning and security protocols to
enable that type of solution
uh you know the security everything the
challenges uh would be to getting people
to participate in a coopetition type of
environment or or more collaborative
let's say it that way and I said well I
know a lot of people so I spent
um you know about six eight months
talking to different constituents that I
know at oems EMS Distributors and
suppliers both semiconductor and ipe
and we we pulled together a group and to
just kind of talk about different ways
in which we could manage this and what I
found very interesting when we all got
together is there was just a strong
agreement that the historical ways in
which we were forecasting demand did not
work in today's environment and we
needed to do something different in fact
as supply chain professionals living
through such a disruptive environment
that have implications around the world
there's almost an obligation to you know
work together to try and come up with
new and innovative ideas so we had a few
meetings and actually just uh just last
week we uh Incorporated the true demand
Coalition as we're calling it and we are
going to start working on a proof of
concept to be able to analyze data and
see what different kind of results that
it would provide and ideally once we get
a work product defined we'll roll it out
to more companies right now we've got 25
member companies participating
with the idea that it will provide
better information and the intent would
be you know a second source of data for
suppliers for Ems for Distributors for
oems the the original data would
continue to transact so you get the raw
data but then you'd get a rationalized
information through true demand and then
be able to make uh more informed
Decisions by having you know a greater
source of data so I'm
I'm pretty excited that we've been able
to get to this point in this initiative
and hopefully it'll be a way in which we
can bring leaders across the industry
together to share that Collective genius
to come up with better ways to forecast
demand and hopefully mitigate future
supply chain disruptions
well that's a big idea uh which is the
whole the whole point of this
conversation congratulations on the
progress thus far you're touching on
something that's very near and dear to
my personal heart in terms of the value
of contextualized data and Community
data uh that you can then apply
analytics and AI on top of to really
bring real insights and if we could find
a way to share to your point in a
collaborative way a non-competing way of
course but in a collaborative way
um we're all going to be a lot smarter
and hopefully we can mitigate those big
Peaks and valleys that are so disruptive
uh in in many ways as you put it
predictable right these things have
happened for as long as the we've all
been in the electronics business for all
the time you see these every four or
five years and then when you have a big
disruption of course Kobe and a bit of a
Black Swan event
um even more Amplified so so thank you
for your leadership there
um and should we uh ask uh our our
favorite question of lit I'll let you do
that as we come to the tail end of our
discussion yeah absolutely no this is
fantastic and and I agree with Angel you
know the contribution of of a Global
Perspective and that being a really
leading indicator to the success of the
global electronics Industry is really an
important key moving forward well
there's one question we'd like to ask of
everyone as we're coming to an end and I
certainly hope your Communications lead
there prepped you for this question
um if you were the chief supply chain
officer of the world and I know that's a
lofty vision
what would be your first priority for
transforming the world supply chain
I would have to say true demand because
I get so excited about the potential
application for that
um because we're trying to solve it for
the electronics Industry which is you
know a very complex industry but the
principles that we're we're looking at
could be applied to any industry If
energy industry food industry Lumber
industry and the ability to try and
match supply and demand and be able to
manage complex Supply chains more
effectively would just have such a
positive impact on the world so my uh my
if I could be in charge of everything
I'd say we want everybody to participate
we want people to come together we got
this started and I'm super excited about
what we're hopefully we'll be achieving
in the next six to 12 months but that
would absolutely be my answer that
everybody starts thinking about how we
can work together to better forecast
demand because it'll just make better
decisions for investment in the future
that would smooth it out so that's my
answer perfect thank you so much and
thank you for joining us today Lynn and
angel thank you once again for being a
stellar co-host and that's a wrap on
this episode of Big Ideas and supply
chain
thank you foreign
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