Gold Outlook
Summary
TLDRIn this video, the speaker discusses the outlook for gold, comparing its historical trends to current performance. They highlight how gold tends to break out before rate cuts and continues to rally over long periods, often lasting a decade. While acknowledging that gold generally underperforms the S&P 500 over time, the speaker emphasizes its potential as a hedge, especially during economic downturns. They also caution against short-term flipping, noting that gold's movements are typically slow and deliberate. The overall message is to use gold as a signal and hedge rather than a primary investment.
Takeaways
- đ Gold has historically shown strong rallies before rate cuts, as it did in 2019 and 2024, often following a similar pattern.
- đĄ In March 2024, gold's performance signaled a mid-cycle top for Bitcoin, offering crypto investors valuable market insights.
- đ Over the long term, gold tends to underperform the S&P 500, but it serves as a useful hedge during times of economic uncertainty.
- âł Gold's bull markets tend to last over a decade, in contrast to faster-moving assets like Bitcoin or altcoins.
- đ Significant pullbacks are expected during gold's bull runs, but historically, gold has always found support at key moving averages.
- đŠ Even during the financial crisis and major downturns, gold typically experiences temporary drops before resuming its upward trend.
- đ While gold has rallied about 27% from its last breakout point, it may continue moving toward higher targets like $3,500 depending on future market conditions.
- đ Gold's movements can be slow and steady, with long periods of consolidation and occasional pullbacks before resuming its upward trajectory.
- đ Many investors remain bullish on gold as a hedge, despite its longer-term underperformance compared to stock indices like the S&P 500.
- â ïž The speaker emphasizes the importance of viewing gold as a long-term hedge rather than a short-term flip, cautioning against making short-term trades based on brief price movements.
Q & A
What is the main focus of the video?
-The main focus of the video is providing a general market outlook on gold, discussing its past performance, and making predictions based on historical trends.
What was the price of gold the last time the video creator discussed it, and what prediction did they make?
-The last time the video creator discussed gold, it was priced around $2,000 per ounce. They predicted it would rally to around $2,500, which has since happened.
How does the video creator compare gold to Bitcoin in terms of market cycles?
-The creator compares gold's breakout before rate cuts in 2019 and 2024 to Bitcoinâs midcycle top, suggesting that observing goldâs performance can serve as a signal for Bitcoinâs market trends.
What does the video creator suggest about gold as a long-term investment?
-While the creator acknowledges that gold tends to underperform the S&P 500 over a long enough time period, they suggest it can serve as a hedge during times when the S&P is flat or underperforming.
How does the video creator describe the gold market's pace of movement?
-Gold moves very slowly compared to assets like Bitcoin. Its bull markets can last for a decade, and its daily or monthly price movements are often minor compared to cryptocurrencies.
What key indicator does the creator use to assess the strength of goldâs bull market?
-The creator uses the 20-month Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 21-month Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as a bull market support band for gold, indicating its long-term trend.
What comparison does the creator make between goldâs performance in the 2000s and the present day?
-The creator compares goldâs performance during the 2000s bull market, where it rallied 600% from 2001 to 2011, with its current performance, suggesting that it is once again in a slow, long-term uptrend.
Why does the creator believe gold is a useful signal for crypto investors?
-The creator believes gold serves as a signal for crypto investors because, historically, its breakouts have coincided with significant moments in the crypto market, such as Bitcoinâs midcycle tops.
What does the creator say about potential pullbacks in goldâs price?
-The creator expects occasional pullbacks to the bull market support band but advises against selling in anticipation of these pullbacks, viewing them as buying opportunities instead.
What is the creatorâs outlook on gold's future performance?
-The creator expects gold to continue rallying, with occasional pullbacks, and speculates that its bull market could last for several more years, potentially reaching new highs between $3,100 and $3,500 by 2025.
Outlines
đŹ General Outlook on Gold's Market Performance
The speaker opens the video by discussing the historical performance of gold, focusing on its trends around critical economic events like Bitcoin's midcycle tops and interest rate cuts. He emphasizes how gold tends to break out before rate cuts and highlights its recent rally, which exceeded expectations by surpassing $2,500 per ounce. He stresses that for crypto investors, gold should be viewed more as a signal rather than a direct investment, especially noting its underperformance relative to the S&P 500 over long periods.
đ Gold's Bull Market Support Band Explained
The speaker discusses the concept of the 'bull market support band' for gold, which differs from that of Bitcoin due to gold's slower movement. He explains how gold historically finds support at the 20-month SMA and 21-month EMA during pullbacks, with exceptions like the financial crisis. The speaker asserts that gold has been in a bull market since 2016, emphasizing its slow but steady rise with higher highs and higher lows, making it a more stable but less exciting asset compared to cryptocurrencies.
âł The Slow and Steady Nature of Gold
This section elaborates on the gradual nature of gold's bull markets, contrasting it with the rapid movements typical of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. The speaker notes that gold's bull markets can last for a decade or more, with occasional pullbacks to its support band. He mentions quantitative easing (QE) as a factor that influences gold's performance, predicting that gold will likely continue its upward trend with intermittent corrections, making it a reliable long-term hedge rather than a short-term investment.
đ Long-Term Perspectives on Gold's Bull Market
In the final section, the speaker provides a long-term perspective on gold's ongoing bull market, suggesting that it might continue for several more years. He advises against selling gold in anticipation of minor pullbacks, instead viewing these as opportunities to increase exposure. The speaker also highlights the importance of the RSI (Relative Strength Index) in assessing gold's momentum, predicting that gold's bull market could last until 2029 or beyond, given its historical patterns of decade-long trends.
Mindmap
Keywords
đĄGold
đĄBull Market
đĄBull Market Support Band
đĄInterest Rate Cuts
đĄBitcoin
đĄS&P 500
đĄQE (Quantitative Easing)
đĄLogarithmic Regression Trend Line
đĄLabor Market Deterioration
đĄRSI (Relative Strength Index)
Highlights
Gold is following a similar pattern to its 2019 breakout, where it rallied before rate cuts were introduced.
Gold has rallied about 27% from its breakout point, previously expected to reach $2500 and now exceeding expectations.
Gold can be viewed as a signal for crypto investors, especially for predicting Bitcoin mid-cycle tops.
Historically, gold underperforms the S&P 500 over the long term, but there are periods when it can significantly outperform, such as during the dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis.
Gold's bull markets can last for a decade or longer, unlike the shorter and more volatile bull runs seen in crypto.
Gold often finds support during pullbacks at its 20-month SMA and 21-month EMA, unlike Bitcoin, which uses weekly moving averages for support.
During the 2001-2011 gold bull market, the price surged by 600% while the S&P 500 remained flat.
Gold tends to rally even during periods of quantitative easing (QE), as seen in 2019-2020.
Gold's current bull market started around 2016, with stronger momentum picking up in 2018-2019.
There are opportunities for occasional pullbacks to the bull market support band, which could serve as potential entry points.
Gold's bull market support band is currently between $2116 and $2165, providing wiggle room for potential pullbacks without losing the overall trend.
Despite the slow movement of gold compared to crypto, its long-term trends and sustained bull markets make it a useful hedge in portfolios.
Gold's moves can be slower but more sustained, making it attractive for longer-term investors looking to hedge against stagnant equity markets.
The current rally could continue for several more years, potentially reaching $3500 by 2025 depending on market conditions.
Gold tends to have fake-outs below its bull market support band before continuing upward, seen in both the 2000s bull market and the recent 2022 market.
The RSI for gold is currently elevated around 80, which is a historically high level, and previous bull market tops occurred when RSI reached around 84.
Transcripts
hey everyone and thanks for jumping back
into the precious metal verse today
we're going to talk about gold and we're
just going to be providing a general
Outlook if you guys like the content
make sure you subscribe to the channel
give the video a thumbs up and check out
intothe cryptoverse premium at intothe
cryptoverse
docomo here is go through gold and and
talk about a a General Market Outlook
based on what gold has historically done
the last time I did a video on gold was
probably about a year ago and it was
when it was around 2000 or so around
2,000 um uh dollars per ounce now if you
guys remember what I said back then my
expectation was that it would follow
something similar to 2019 right where
it's pushing up against a ceiling and
then it finally breaks through around
the time that Bitcoin puts in what you
might call a midcycle top right where
then Bitcoin kind of Trends down for at
least half a year gold did this did that
in 2019 before Cuts arrived and it's
also done it in 2024 before rate Cuts
arrived right you can look at at
interest rates put this on this put put
them on the chart and you can see that
in both Cycles here while it's easy to
assume this time is different both
Cycles gold broke out before rate Cuts
arrived right and then gold broke out
here before rate Cuts arrived and then
it it goes on a pretty impressive rally
so back then after gold broke out
rallied about 50% now it's already
rallied about 27% from the breakout
point so what I want to do is is think
about what did I say back then my
speculation back then was that gold
would rally likely to approximately
2500 and then get a pullback well this
was back in almost 2,000 an ounce it's
gone past 2500 I'm pleasantly surprised
right I have a gold position I've I've
said that many many times I will
reiterate you know for for most crypto
investors gold is not something they're
going to be interested in I'm not trying
to convince you of that I'm trying to
say look at it as a signal more than
anything else right if you're a crypto
investor and you don't care about gold
as an investment you could still have
used it back in March 2024 to say look
if it follows what it did in 2019 it
means Bitcoin is likely going to put on
a midcycle top and it's going to Trend
down for at least the next six months
right you could have known that back in
March when everyone was screaming at you
that something else was going to happen
just look at gold it was a signal more
than it was an investment for a lot of
crypto investors I will say over a long
enough period of time gold does
underperform the S&P 500 right it does
but you have to wonder right there are
people that are insanely bullish on gold
and they always have been and you're
like well why why are they there there's
there's a reason people get like that
right it's not just because it's never
done anything it's just because they had
it when it did do something at some
point and they want to relive The Glory
Days a lot of a lot of the people that
watch this channel are are about my age
right I was born in 1990 and I look at
this gold chart and I I you know I if I
were to draw on here when I was born it
was right here right in
1990 so the only bull market that gold
has really had an impressive bull market
was when I was still a kid right I mean
the rally it started in 2001 I was only
11 years old right so you'll have to
forgive me for not being on the gold
bandwagon back then right it's not like
I was on my way to middle school I was
checking the price of
gold but again there are people that
have seen these really impressive
rallies before and so that's why you'll
see the gold bugs right the same thing
could happen to bitcoiners too
eventually right it's possible in fact
this this rally over here by gold looks
eerily similar to the Bitcoin rally in
2013 sort of that double Peak cycle but
the thing about gold is that these
rallies don't take place over a year or
two they take place over a decade right
these are monthly candles 118 months
you're talking about a decade long move
here 120 months right 124 months a
decade long move and so what I think a
lot of people do is they treat gold like
they treat an altcoin or something where
they try to flip it over a day or a
month to make some money but gold is one
of those Investments if you're going to
have it in your
portfolio is you know and I and I do own
gold for full disclosure right but it's
a relatively small amount because as
I've said over a longer period of time
gold under forms the S&P 500 but I still
think it's worthwhile to hedge
occasionally because for instance during
this period right here when gold went up
you know 600% from 201 2011 or so during
that same period the S&P was basically
flat because of the dot crash and the
financial
crisis so you basically had a loss
decade while gold went up
600% now
the last time I made a video on gold I
think it was around 2,000 and I said
look guys it's probably going to break
out and it's probably going to get a
move to 2500 okay it's done that now and
I'm like all right well now what well
there is the bull market support band
for gold now the bull market support
band for gold is different than for
Bitcoin so for Bitcoin it's the 20we SMA
and the 21 we EMA which by the way
Bitcoin is currently back above but for
gold for something that moves as slowly
as gold is the 20mon SMA and the 21mon
EMA so it's a monthly moving average
rather than a rather than a weekly and
you might say well what is the
justification for that well look at this
bull market over here every single time
that gold had a larger pullback it
always found support at the 20-month SMA
and or 21-month EMA the only time it
went below this bull market support band
in its decade long bull market was
during the financial crisis so that
shows you that even gold is not immune
to some types of recessions where it
dropped
33.8% now I've tried to make this
comparison to this bull market for gold
right I mean there's no denying that
gold has been in a bull market I mean
you could argue that it's been in a bull
market since 2016 right you know looks
like it bottomed out here in 2016 and
it's been slowly moving up it didn't
really get moving though until early 20
or late 2018 early
2019 you see that it didn't really get
moving till then
but
certainly any unbiased person would say
you know this is just a series of higher
lows and higher Highs but it takes place
over a painstakingly long amount of time
that it's hard to notice right it's hard
to notice sometimes when Gold's moving
because a good day is for it to just
move up half a percent right that's a
good day whereas for Bitcoin if Bitcoin
only were to go up half a percent in a
day a lot of people would consider that
to be down right they would consider
that to be a red day almost if it's not
going up a lot um
and I mean it's just crazy the different
types of investors that sort of go to
these different different types of
assets but I would say this right I
would say this gold is still set up in a
relatively similar way as it was you
know out of that 2019 rally and
basically gold rallied even through the
introduction of of QE right so if you
look at the introduction of QE QE
started here in August 2019 gold still
or September 2019 gold still rallied
even after after that right it did get a
little bit of a pullback once QE came
back but it still continued to Rally
after that so my speculation is that it
will likely continue to Rally there will
be some pullbacks probably to the
bullmark sport band right now the
bullmark sport band for it is all the
way down at like 21 to 2200 so I'm not
really sure if it's going to go that low
but um I I could see some occasional
pullbacks but I don't think it makes
sense to sell in anticipation of those
occasional pullbacks not Financial
advice I would just some more so see
that as an opportunity if you want to
get exposure to gold right I mean first
of all if you wanted it right you had
plenty of time back over here um sort of
waiting for the breakout to to occur
just like it did in 2019 now it has so
now the question is well how long could
this go on for one of the things to
remember is that with gold it's not like
crypto right it's not like Bitcoin or
ethereum or any of that stuff when it
goes into bull markets it can stay that
way for a decade again this was a decade
long bull market I mean yes there was a
some some downtrends in between but
these were massive bull markets if you
look at the bull market support band for
gold this cycle it's been above that
level since 2019 it only fell below it
once during the bare Market of 2022 so I
wonder I wonder if this fake out there
is similar to that fake out right there
and then it come you see this it comes
back up consolidates gets a big pushup
up consolidates and just keeps on doing
it after that downturn right there in
2008 gold rallied for another
3 let's say 36 months right about three
years after this pullback it's already
been 22
months but again if it's going to follow
that you could argue that it could
easily
go look another 14 months will put at
the end of 2025 so I don't know if it's
going to take place over that long a
period of time but one of the things you
could do is you connect the dots on
these Peaks and say well what if you
connect the dots on these
Peaks where would that land gold well it
depends on when it hits it if it hits it
say the end of this year it could be at
3160 if it were to hit it say the end of
2025 you know it could obviously be 3500
or so now that might sound like a crazy
number for gold but remember when it
gets moving it can really move for a
while I think the hard part is that you
could get a scenario where gold does
something like this right where it gets
a big selloff and then consolidates
until the bullmark sport band catches up
right like if it if it did something
like this where then the bullmark sport
Bank catches up and then it goes up and
everyone during this time would be like
oh see Gold's not going anywhere but in
reality that would be a perfectly normal
move so when it comes to gold and you
have to think of it kind of differently
than crypto like it's not something
generally speaking that is worthwhile in
my opinion anyways to flip on a shorter
term period right it's it's not an
altcoin it's something that you could
have in your portfolio if you want to
hedge against the S&P becoming
relatively flat for a while right if the
S&P gets too overvalued and and then
there's another selloff and whatnot and
and and you just kind of generally have
riskof conditions where the S&P isn't
doing that great gold could be a hedge
against that just like bonds could be
just like fixed income could be but over
a long enough a period of time gold will
likely underperform the S&P 500 even
though there are years where it
outperforms the P 500 so over a long
enough period of time you know because
of that because over a long enough
period of time the S&P does send to
outperform Gold my thought process is
that it makes more sense to have you
know a smaller position in Gold than say
like index funds because index funds do
generally outperform gold but as a hedge
in a portfolio it's not necessarily a
bad way to go because it could protect
you could help protect you if the S&P
does you know do something like this
right because if you overlay gold
um during you know during that period
right if you overlay gold during this
period right here where the S&P was just
kind of going nowhere that was when gold
was going absolutely parabolic so you
know Gold's been going parabolic and you
know will there be another drop in the
S&P 500 at some point that's possible
right it's certainly possible and that's
why I say gold could be a a interesting
hedge right it gives you some exposure
to the upside it's not that gold can't
go down you can see that even during
some of these crazy bull markets that
gold has had it still went down I mean
you know the financial crisis was a a a
pretty large drop by gold I mean just to
give you an
idea of of the drop right during the
financial crisis it was like a 35% move
to the
downside I mean just to give you an idea
of where that would put gold today right
like a 35% drop would put gold all the
way back at 1,700 which I don't think
many people have when they're being go
card the other thing that I've used to
look at gold previously are the gold
logarithmic aggression trend line the
trend line here and so I've pointed this
idea out right that you have sort of an
intermediate
top a visit back to the bull market
support band and then another bull
market right which is probably what I've
been arguing we're in right now where
the extension from the fair value for
the second one is larger than the first
right so the extension from the fair
value right there was about 100% but the
extension from the fair value in 5 years
later was you know
450% the extens here was about 92% right
so really similar really similar to that
extension right there so far the
extension from the fair value is only
about 57% now I'm not suggesting it's
going to go 400% above the fair value
but I would suggest that it could
certainly go higher than 57% above the
fair value um the other thing to
consider by the way though is that it
doesn't have to end in 2025 right there
exists a scenario where where you know
you have these sort of little these
breakout moments like 2019 and 2024 and
then at some point here right it topped
out right it topped out after QE
returned um about six months or so so
you could have an example where gold you
know does something like this it rallies
qy returns and then it kind of stagnates
for a while and then the next cycle gold
breaks out again right it ends up being
another midcycle top for Bitcoin uh for
the next cycle and it just keeps doing
something like that and then you look
back on it and you're like oh wow you
know the bull market lasted from 2018
until 2028 or something right or
2029 that's always a possibility again
gold moves very slowly I think it's easy
to look at these bull markets be like oh
that would have been easy to ride this
was a 10-year bull market and then this
was a 10year bull market so why should
anyone expect the move by gold to occur
over a month or a week or even a year
when history shows that bull markets for
gold tend to last for a decade or so so
I would I would keep in you know keep
that in mind if you are interested in
Gold so I would say the main two tools
that I would use here the main things I
would be looking at um would just be all
right as long as gold is trending above
its bullmark support band I think all
systems are still go um that is all the
way down at 2116 to 2165 so there's
plenty of wiggle room in there there
will likely be pullbacks to the to its
bull Mark sport band along the way just
like there were in this bull market over
here and just like there were in this
one over here but when it's as long as
it's above it right you also had a fake
out below it in this bull market as well
right so in in both of the two last bull
markets there was basically one major
fake out below the bull Mark sport B
just like there was here in late
2022 so I think we're in sort of that
second stretch here and I think you're
watching gold basically go parabolic as
investors are starting to get concerned
about potentially some of the labor
market deterioration and the more that
the labor market deteriorates the more
it means that QE will be resuming soon
and interest rate Cuts will continue and
gold likes that so my general thought
process on gold is that it will remain
constructive it will likely continue to
put in higher lows as long as it holds
above the bull market support ban it
still should be fine I would get
concerned if it were to get below the
bull market support ban I don't even
know if it has to retest the prior
breakout point you know some of the
times when you look at at breakouts
you'll expect it to retest the breakout
point but if you look at 2019 it never
retested that before continuing higher
so there's no guarantee that it has to
retest this and in fact considering that
the bull market support band for gold is
above the prior breakout point I would
be inclined to say that it won't more
likely not to than it more than it is to
actually do that I would say my general
thought process as I said it's likely to
remain constructive my guess is that
there will be pullbacks to the bull
market support band throughout the bull
market for gold just like there were in
this bull market and just like there
were back over here right there was you
know different pullbacks to the bullmark
sport band during the overall macro
uptrend but that it's not worthwhile in
my view to sell an anticipation of that
but to use that as an opportunity if you
look at like the RSI right if we if we
pull up the RSI for gold you can see
that it is getting relatively elevated
right I mean it's currently at around 80
okay the last time we saw gold break
through um you know back over here in
2019 the RSI the weekly RSI it topped at
around
84 right 84 so I've been keeping my eye
on that a little bit because it was also
that was also around the level that it
topped out at during these sort of
intermediate rallies in the last bull
market you see that and then the final
top was actually a much lower high right
it was a much lower high which is
coincidentally where gold is right
now right that's actually coincidentally
where where gold is right now um is is
it's actually slightly above it right
now but what I would say you know I
wouldn't be surprised if Gold's weekly
RSI goes back up to like
8384 kind of like it did a couple times
over here right and then maybe out in
2029 or something you know it puts in a
a a lower high or something you know
something something like that could
happen but anyways those are my views on
gold um we'll see what happens I would
say it's still likely going to be a long
journey it's not something that's like
an altcoin that you're you're probably
looking for a shorter term play anyways
if you guys like the content make sure
you subscribe give the video a thumbs up
and again check out intothe cryptoverse
premium at into crypto.com I'll see you
guys next time bye
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