Bull Case for AAVE - September 2024 Update

Summary

この動画では、TAが自身の投資見解と最新の市場動向について説明しています。彼は特にAave（A）やDeFi市場に注目しており、ETHと比較してAaveのパフォーマンスが改善していると述べています。彼はDefiの復活を期待し、バイバックやトークン提案が市場に影響を与える可能性に言及しています。また、DeFiの多くのトークンは無価値だが、一部のトークンは将来的に大きな成長を遂げる可能性があると主張し、Aaveの長期的な成長を見込んでいることを強調しています。

Takeaways

• 💰 イーサリアムが底を打ったと考え、Altcoinがイーサリアムを上回らない限りリスクが高いと述べている。
• 📈 Aトークンの価格は2倍になり、長期的には上昇トレンドになると予想している。
• 🔄 DeFi市場が再興し、根本的な価値に基づいた投資が再び注目されると考えている。
• 🤑 無価値だと思われていたガバナンストークンでも、適切な時期が来れば価値が見出される可能性があると主張。
• 🏦 AはDeFi市場で最も強力な銀行と見なされ、2025年までにシェアの大部分を占める可能性があると予測。
• 📊 Aトークンの取引量や収益が増加しており、将来的な成長の基盤を築いていると見ている。
• 🔄 ゴーステーブルコインの市場成長と、それに伴う収益増加が期待されている。
• 🏦 他のDeFiプロジェクトよりもAが信頼されており、大手パートナーシップもAを選択する傾向がある。
• 📈 DeFiトークン市場は99%が無価値だが、残りの1%には大きなチャンスがあると信じている。
• 🎙 プレミアムDiscordや定期的なビデオ更新を通じて、DeFiの洞察を提供し、コミュニティの構築を目指している。

Q & A

質問1: スピーカーが投資したとされる 'a' とは何を指しているのか？

スピーカーが言及している 'a' は、おそらくDeFiプロジェクトやトークンに関連するものです。具体的なトークンやプロジェクト名は記載されていませんが、スピーカーはこれを92ドルで購入し、ステーキングしていると述べています。

質問2: スピーカーが 'a' のエンター・イーサリアム比率が底を打ったと考える理由は何か？

スピーカーは、'a' のエンター・イーサリアム比率が過去3年間下降トレンドにあり、最近初めて高値を付ける兆候を見せていることから、底を打った可能性が高いと考えています。

質問3: スピーカーが言及している「DeFiルネッサンス」とは何を意味しているのか？

スピーカーの言う「DeFiルネッサンス」とは、ミームコインなどへの過度な投機的投資から、本来のファンダメンタルズに基づいた投資への回帰を指しています。

質問4: 'a' が収益を生み出す仕組みはどのようなものか？

スピーカーによると、'a' は清算が発生するときに手数料を徴収し、その収益を将来的にトークンのバイバックに使用します。例えば、8月の清算で600万ドルの収益が発生しました。

質問5: 'a' のバイバックの条件は何か？

バイバックが始まるためには、'a' のステーブルコインの市場供給が1億7500万ドルに達し、流動性が1000万ドルのスワップサイズを1%未満の価格影響で処理できることが条件です。

質問6: 'a' の現在の市場状況はどうなっているのか？

スピーカーの発言時点で、'a' のステーブルコイン供給は約1億2600万ドルに達しており、成長のペースが著しいとされています。

質問7: 他のDeFiプロジェクトと比べて、'a' の強みは何か？

'a' は市場シェアを拡大しており、特に信頼性の高いDeFiレンディングプロトコルとして、パートナーシップや成長の面で優位性を持っています。また、BlackRockなどの大手企業との連携も進行中です。

質問8: 'a' の長期的な見通しはどうか？

スピーカーは、'a' がDeFi市場の中で非常に強力なプレーヤーとして、将来的に市場シェアの大部分を占める可能性があると考えており、2025年中期から後期にかけてさらに成長する可能性があると述べています。

質問9: スピーカーが他に言及したDeFiプロジェクトやトークンは何か？

スピーカーは、MakerやCurveなど他のDeFiプロジェクトにも言及しています。特に、Makerのトークンがバイバック提案によって成長した事例を挙げています。

質問10: スピーカーが強調するリスクとは何か？

スピーカーは、イーサリアムを下回るオルトコインを保持することは大きなリスクであり、特に価値のないガバナンストークンに投資することは無価値であると警告しています。

Outlines

00:00

🎥 動画の概要と市場の現状について

動画の冒頭で、配信者は視聴者にチャンネル登録やディスコードコミュニティの紹介を行い、Aトークンの購入とETHとの比較について話し始めます。ETHの低迷とともに、リスクの高いアルトコインがさらに悪いパフォーマンスを示す中、Aトークンが強く反発していることを指摘。これが投資機会として魅力的であると述べ、特にETH比率の上昇に注目しながら、これが本格的な上昇トレンドの始まりかもしれないと示唆します。

05:02

📈 DeFi ルネサンスとAトークンの将来性

DeFi市場に対する悲観的な見方が広がる中で、配信者はその価値に基づいた投資が復活する「DeFiルネサンス」が起こると予測。Aトークンの底を打ったという主張は、以前のMakerトークンに対する同様の分析からの洞察に基づいており、バイバック提案などが市場に与える影響を強調します。

10:02

💰 Aトークンの収益性とバイバックの見通し

Aトークンの収益性について、特に8月の清算時に6百万ドルの収益を上げたことに言及。これは将来的にバイバックに使われると期待され、トークンの投資価値を支える要素として強調されます。また、バイバックの条件として、ゴーストステーブルコインの市場拡大が重要であると述べ、その成長の現状を解説します。

📊 Aトークンと競合ステーブルコインの比較

Aトークンの成長の重要性を他のステーブルコイン（例：CurveやDAI）と比較し、Aが独自のステーブルコインを提供することで収益が増加する可能性について詳述。また、DeFi市場における信頼性と市場シェアの重要性を強調し、Aトークンが2025年までに大きなシェアを獲得すると予測しています。

🏦 Aトークンの市場支配と将来の展望

配信者はAトークンが今後市場を支配する可能性について語り、その一環としてのパートナーシップ（例：ブラックロック）を挙げ、他のDeFiプロジェクトとの競争優位性を強調します。また、トランプ関連のDeFiプロジェクトにも触れ、その影響がAトークンにプラスであると評価しています。

🏅 Aトークンの強みとDeFiの再評価

AトークンがDeFi市場で圧倒的な市場シェアを獲得する可能性についての見解が述べられ、配信者はその成長がDeFi全体の成長と連動していると指摘。さらに、リスクを伴う他のDeFiトークンに対する保守的な視点を示しつつも、Aトークンの持つ信頼性と価値の高さを強調しています。

🎙️ DeFi市場の見通しと投資の結論

動画のまとめとして、配信者はDeFi市場での確実な勝者に投資することの重要性を説きます。UniswapやAトークンのようなカテゴリーリーダーが将来的に市場を支配すると予想し、他の新規プロジェクトがそれを覆すのは困難であると述べています。

Keywords

💡Defi（分散型金融）

Defiは「分散型金融」の略称で、中央集権的な仲介者を介さずに金融取引を行う技術やサービスを指します。この動画では、Defiの成長と復活（Renaissance）について触れ、特にAaveなどのプロトコルに対する期待感が述べられています。

💡Aave

Aaveは、暗号資産の貸し借りを行うための分散型金融プロトコルです。動画では、Aaveが市場シェアを拡大し、特に2025年に向けてさらなる成長が期待されていることが説明されています。また、収益性の向上や、ゴーステーブルコインによるプロフィットドライバーとしての役割についても言及されています。

💡ETH（イーサリアム）

ETHはイーサリアムのネイティブ通貨であり、Defiやその他のスマートコントラクトの基盤として機能します。動画内では、ETHの価格の底打ちについて言及され、これがAaveのようなプロトコルにも影響を与えるとされています。ETHが他の暗号資産に対してどのようにパフォーマンスを発揮しているかも議論されています。

💡ステーキング

ステーキングとは、暗号資産を特定のプラットフォームに預けてネットワークの維持や承認作業に参加し、その対価として報酬を得る仕組みです。動画の冒頭で、Aaveを購入してステーキングを行っていることが述べられ、長期的な利益を期待しているとされています。

💡ゴーステーブルコイン

ゴーステーブルコインはAaveによって発行されるステーブルコインで、貸し出しや借り入れの利率によって利益を生む設計となっています。動画では、このステーブルコインの市場成長がAaveの今後の利益拡大につながると説明されています。

💡買い戻し（Buybacks）

買い戻しとは、企業やプロトコルが市場から自社のトークンや株式を買い戻す行為を指します。Aaveでは、収益の一部を使ってトークンを買い戻すことでトークンの価値を高める計画があると動画内で説明されています。

💡市場シェア

市場シェアは、特定のプロダクトやサービスが市場全体で占める割合を指します。AaveがDefiの中で市場シェアを拡大し、最終的には90%に達する可能性があると動画で述べられています。これは、信頼性や取引量の増加が理由とされています。

💡トランプ DeFi プロジェクト

トランプ DeFi プロジェクトは、トランプ一家が関与する新しいプロジェクトで、Aaveのフロントエンドを使って資金を預ける仕組みを利用することが言及されています。このプロジェクトがAaveに与える影響については不明だが、動画内では「小さな追い風」として捉えられています。

💡ガバナンストークン

ガバナンストークンは、プロトコルの意思決定に参加する権利を持つトークンです。Aaveのようなプロトコルでは、このトークンを所有することで、プロトコルの方向性や新機能の追加について投票が可能になります。動画では、こうしたトークンの価値がないと見なされることが多いが、ある時点で価値が見直される可能性があると述べられています。

💡パートナーシップ

パートナーシップは、異なる企業やプロトコルが協力し合うことを指します。動画内では、BlackRockのような大手金融機関がAaveと提携することが可能性として言及されており、これがAaveにとって大きなプラスになるとされています。

Highlights

The speaker discusses their investment in A at $92, staking it, and how they believe Ethereum has bottomed.

Concern raised about the risk of holding altcoins that underperform against Ethereum, making it a risky strategy.

Mentions that the A/Eth ratio is improving after years of decline, possibly indicating a reversal in trend.

The speaker emphasizes the macro trend favoring A, potentially forming a higher high and discussing an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern.

The speaker points out a 'DeFi Renaissance' where investors may shift focus from meme coins back to fundamentals.

The success of Maker's buyback proposal from July 2023 is highlighted as an example of how governance tokens can find value.

The revenue generated by A's treasury during August liquidations ($6 million), which will eventually contribute to buybacks.

Discussion of A's buyback proposal, which is contingent on the growth of the GO stablecoin and liquidity conditions improving.

Positive growth in GO's market cap from $100 million to $126 million since the previous month, showing potential.

Explanation of how A’s own stablecoin GO can generate revenue for the DAO through interest rates on lending.

A’s competitive advantage in decentralized finance is discussed, noting its growing market share in money markets.

The strategic partnership between A and Maker/USDS, using external incentives to drive total value locked (TVL) growth.

Potential integration of A’s Stability Module with BlackRock’s fund, giving A a major institutional partnership advantage.

Discussion about the role of major figures, such as the Trump family, entering DeFi projects built on Ethereum and A.

The speaker sees A as a critical part of DeFi’s growth, expecting it to gain a monopoly in the money market space by 2025.

Transcripts

what's up everyone ta here and in this

video I wanted to give an update to my a

thesis so if you like the content please

like And subscribe and check out the

premium Discord the link will be in the

description below so last month or Late

July I essentially said hey I bought

some a at $92 and I'm going to be

staking it um and I also mentioned that

I think a eat has bottomed and this is

important because you know not only is

eat underperforming right but if you're

holding an altcoin that's

underperforming eat then that's a

nightmare right you're taking on so much

risk um and you're underperforming eat

which seems like a cucked ass it for now

um and at the at at the date of

recording last month it was roughly at

028 and right now it's sitting at

roughly

0539 054 let's say uh so we've

essentially 2X and I think this is

important because a if you look at this

I mean ratio we've kind of been going

down only right lower lows lower highs

for essentially 3 years and the fact

that we seem to be finally putting in a

higher high uh of course you know it's

not confirmed yet but it seems like we

are putting a higher High um and perhaps

you know this level is can be resistance

maybe we're going to put in like you

know an inverse Head and Shoulders or

something uh honestly I don't really

know what it's going to happen in the

short term but I think the macro Trend

the overall trend is going to be up for

the a e ratio and for that reason I

think ausd becomes more of an attractive

investment so what did I think a was

going to bottom um and you know I've

been calling for this defi Renaissance

right um it seems like people have gone

way too you

know are like way tooo like one-sided on

like oneid of pendulum whether it's just

like buying mem coins saying everything

else is worthless um but maybe right we

can go back uh from Financial nihilism

to fundamentals um it seems like people

are getting jaded people want to believe

in something I want to believe in

something um and I think a is one of

those things that you know I think

people can actually you know make a bull

case for um but of course the reason I

thought you know a e is bottomed kind of

goes back to my analysis of maker eat

last year uh so back in July of 2023 I

said that hey I think maker has bottomed

and the reason maker um did bought them

against e is because of their buyback

proposal essentially saying hey like we

have a bunch of money uh we're going to

start buying back the token so this was

July of last year um and you know this

was basically like back like around here

right um and since then makeer

essentially bottomed and it's up

basically 2X and at the peak it was

roughly over a little bit over 3x um so

for for the same reason I just think

that you know for most of these

valueless governance tokens they are

valueless and worthless until they're

not um and I just think that you know

once there's you know some timeline or

some hope for Value C I think people are

going to find the reasons to you know

make a bull case for these types of

assets um and of course if you're you

know as deep into defi as me um I can

front run these flows because I know all

these governance proposals I know when

they're going to happen roughly um and

that's essentially the bull case I came

uh or or I laid out um in Late July of

course a lot of things that happened in

since late July uh for example I mean

you know I mean I guess looking at e

right I mean since July 30th I mean this

e right really painful um since yeah

it's just been down only um it's been

pretty bad uh but know I also think that

this kind of highlights um I guess the

Lindy effects and the strength of things

like a for example Stan who is you know

the founder of a uh mentioned that you

know in the August early August

liquidations um a treasury was rewarded

with $6 million in Revenue right because

whenever people get liquidated on a um a

charges a small fee um and of course

right eventually the $6 million is going

to go into BuyBacks and I think this is

like what's important um you know it's

easy to like punt meme coins or like

punt some random new coin because oh

it's shiny and new um but you know rates

are still high I think people have a

higher bar a higher standard for

allocating into altcoins um so you know

seeing metrics like this right which

will eventually go into BuyBacks uh I

think you know forms a bigger bull case

for this type of asset um and you know

the timeline for the a BuyBacks are

still unclear uh so this is coming from

uh the buyback proposal that was laid

out in Late July um but essentially what

needs to happen is first the ghost

stable coin to reach $175 million in

Supply or market cap and then secondary

liquidity to allow a $10 million swap

size at 1% or less price impact um and

also um you know essentially their

economics have to improve uh so these

are essentially the the three points

that needs to happen um but I think

point three is has already happened uh I

mean they just made $66 million a month

ago um the treasury has roughly $70

million I think that's fine it's more so

tracking the gold market cap and once

gold market cap hits 175 like I think

things are really going to get rolling

um and last month it was sitting at

roughly a little bit over 100 um and

right now at the date of recording we're

roughly at

126 um I think this growth is pretty

interesting um also you know because go

is going to be one of their profit

drivers um you know whenever you lend

and buy usdc right or you know you know

a doesn't make that much money um but if

a has their own stable coin and they can

charge their own Bor rate like let's say

ranging 5% to 10% um that's all going to

be Revenue going to the Dow um so right

now the growth of go is being subsidized

um so you know a has a bunch of money in

the treasury um they're paying people to

stake go um so it's not completely

sustainable um but I think over time you

know uh they're going to way to figure

out ways to you know create demand for

go build out liquidity and I think this

growth is very I impressive because if

you look at other let's say

decentralized stable coins you have Curb

USD basically just like losing like

market share right people are just like

not you know willing to hold on to the

risk um and even die right um I mean I I

laid out the bull case like last year

and whatnot um but you know if die is

not growing then it's kind of hard to be

optimistic maker um and we also see uh

you know other things happening in the

ecosystem uh I also laid out that you

know when it comes to money markets um

obvious is essentially a bank and when

you're using a bank you're essentially

putting in your entire deposit right you

want to borrow as Bitcoin eat like

whatever uh you just put you know like

100k of Bitcoin borrow 50k of usdc um

but like what's the capital at risk the

100K of Bitcoin uh so if you're

depositing money into a bank you have to

be able to trust that bank um and we've

kind of seen since I mean ever since the

dawn of time right um a has continued to

grow in market share right it's the

green box or this green shaded area here

and I really wouldn't be surprised if a

has let's say 70 80 90% market share um

by some sometime mid to late 2025 um and

also right it's like sure there can be

points programs and new tokens but um

you know are are you really going to be

risking your entire deposit for let's

say 5% 10% more yield I don't really

think it makes sense right just use a um

so I think I think like you know dis

liness is important and we also see this

where uh when it comes to Partnerships

um you know people don't want to partner

with compound or Morpho or anything

right um even though I'm sure they they

have partners and they will have

Partners uh but you know the big the big

guys um they're going to partner with a

for example uh maker they're going to

Rebrand T Sky which is a whole another

topic that I'm not really going to get

into um but of course if you're creating

a stable coin you need to be on a right

because that's where all the capital is

um so you know sky is essentially or

maker right formally maker is

essentially saying hey you know if you

integrate um usds which is the new

version of d right they're just

rebranding the entire thing um we're

going to going to just incentivize it um

so if you have usds and you're putting

into a then you know maker Sky will give

you more tokens uh which is good right

um you know a is going to utilize

external incentives to drive TBL growth

and profitability for their own doubt we

also saw um you know Al laughs proposing

to integrate uh the stability module

with black Rock's bidle fund right this

is to token treasury AR R fund um and

essentially you know Black Rock

essentially has like half a billion

dollars I believe in treasuries and

stable coins um and a wants to partner

with them and you know like thinking

realistically is Black Rock going to

partner with a or some the 60th version

uh of like a money market fork or a fork

uh that no one's heard of with like a

$10 million market cap with like 500

million doll fdv right like definitely

not um and even yesterday um there was

this this proposal of this Trump defi

project um where you know the founders

are linked to like some uh project

called do Finance um um which had like a

$2 million def hack I mean it's not a

great look right um it seems like a

really low effort project um where the

Trump family seems to be like trying to

I guess you know make themselves look

better against like the dii community

crypto Community which is like fine

right I mean you know at Le at least

they're trying something um you know

that's you can't say that for other uh

politicians whatnot and apparently this

is being built on ethereum and a um so

on first thought I thought they're going

to be forking a right so like Fork a

drop a token on top and then you know

like like pump the token or something uh

but apparently so I mean I could be

wrong we don't really have the white

people yet um but apparently it's a

front end for a so if you go to you know

this world Liberty Finance or whatever

this thing is called and you deposit

like $100,000 worth of e um it's you

know it's $100,000 of e on their front

end but the capital is actually going

through a right so it's I guess I guess

it's good for them right because you

know if they Fork something then they

can mess it up but if they're if they

just make a front end for a then you

know they can't really mess up right and

then you put up then you put the token

on top charge fees or something I'm sure

you know people are going to try to pump

it and whatnot um I mean it's it's not

bearish a right I mean it's

incrementally bullish a so I guess I'm

all for it right um I I mean this was

certainly not on my bingo card right U

but I guess I mean the point is right

it's it's like it doesn't really matter

that that Trump is like you know

creating this new youi project right

because this is not going to succeed

right um I mean who who knows maybe at

some point it'll it'll it'll

it'll succeeded in the short term but uh

you know people are eventually going to

be like you know what like like why does

this thing have any value unless he like

borrows against his hotels or something

um but the point is a right if you're

partnering with the lending protocol um

if you're putting sizeable deposits into

a bank just use a it makes no sense um

and I just think it's interesting

because I think a is a good bet on I

guess defi growing just you know making

a bet that if defi TV grows then a tvl

will grow and if AI market share grows

relative to other lending markets then

you know they essentially they're

essentially going to have a monopoly on

the entire money market space um and

What premium do you put on that I have

no idea um I honestly have no idea what

the upside for things like a a is um

right now it's like at 132 there's been

a lot of volatility right um but if you

you know I mean just think about it

right I mean since late July uh the

markets have nuked uh whereas a is up

and you can see this in the a eth and a

Bitcoin ratios

um kind of going over here right OB e is

going up and then a Bitcoin right um

bitcoin's been stronger than e so

obviously it hasn't uh we haven't put in

higher highs than here um but I think

once we get let's say get above 02

0.0027 um I just think you know the

market is going to start to um

appreciate the fact that a right

probably has bottomed against e probably

bottom against Bitcoin okay how much

upside does it have I have no idea right

I'm not here to to to bring price

targets and whatnot um but as the most

Lindy as the most valuable Bank in all

of defi all of crypto um you know I

don't think

it's un infeasible um for this thing to

hit alltime highs uh so that's kind of

the the case I'm leaning out uh and you

know I've been saying that hey I believe

in this defi Renaissance I think the

entire crypto industry has gone way too

one-sided into SM coins and everything

is worthless let's just buy scams let's

promote scams um and you know if I make

money from a scam it's okay right um

that's not really the world I want to

live in um so you know I I guess like my

goal here is hey like everyone thinks

these def5 tokens are

worthless I'm on like I'll take the

other side of that right I think 99% of

these tokens are worthless but the 1%

that are worth something I think they

can have a Renaissance right uh they can

have their day in the sun um and you

know it's like you know maybe I'll buy

other defi coins too and I actually

bought another defi coin um today uh

which I'm you know it's more of like a

shorter to medium term actually you know

it kind of depends um that the is still

being laid out but if you want to know

what that is make sure to check out the

premium Discord um I share a lot of my

the's on you know other coins um I also

share premium videos three times a week

um you know it's I think it's one of the

better defi communities out there um

essentially you know if you defi is a

lot of work right so just let me do all

the research for you so you can do like

focus on what you do best that's kind of

that's kind of the pitch and also you

know I highly suggest people listen to

this so I posted this roughly a week ago

U and I had Arthur 0x kind of talk about

you know the bull case for a and you

know whether things like Lio is

investable um Unis swap is investable um

maker is investable um the effects of R

cuts on defi um the perex landscape um

you know the valal the whole vitalic you

know Saga right right like you know he

doesn't like defi um you know with like

my podcast and like steady lines and

whatnot um so on a defi right why

Jupiter is kind of interesting uh so I

think this was kind of like a master

class on the current defi landscape um

so I highly suggest everyone check this

out um and to wrap up the video like my

general view is that you know I think

generally uh the market

has it's pretty clear that there are

certain winners in the market right you

know like Unis swap probably the number

one decks OB Number One Lending Market

um and it's going to be really difficult

for any new project to flip them um so I

think it makes sense to bet on category

leaders essentially uh that's kind of

like the view that I have um and you

know obvious one of them um so anyways

thank you guys for watching hope you

guys enjoyed the video um you know

hopefully a ases well right I'm kind of

Bing on it uh all my a is sted I haven't

sold a single a um and who knows maybe

I'll buy more right if I you know happen

to get some air drop stimulus thanks for

watching see you guys another time

bye-bye