Trading the Weekly Range: Full Breakdown

Summary

This video offers a detailed walkthrough of a specific trade executed across Tuesday and Wednesday, focusing on capturing a weekly range expansion. The trader outlines their approach, starting with an economic calendar analysis to identify high-impact news events, particularly NFP and holidays, which dictate trading days to avoid. They emphasize the importance of understanding market direction and narrative through daily charts, identifying key reversal and continuation points. The trader then discusses the selection of a stronger pair for trading and confirms the trade idea using hourly charts and daily profiles, ultimately detailing the entry strategy and stop-loss placement for a successful trade.

Takeaways

• 📅 Always start the week by reviewing the economic calendar to identify high-impact news events like Non-Farm Payroll, CPI, and FOMC press conferences.
• 🚫 Avoid trading on days with bank holidays or after major news releases like NFP, as these can disrupt normal market conditions.
• 🔍 Focus on the first few days of the week for potential reversals, as they set the stage for the rest of the week's trading opportunities.
• 📉 Look for price action at the edges of the daily range to identify potential reversal points, ignoring minor fluctuations within the range.
• 📈 After identifying a potential reversal, wait for confirmation on the hourly chart and alignment with the daily profile before entering a trade.
• ⏱ Time your trades to align with market sessions, particularly watching for changes in state of delivery during the New York session.
• 📊 Compare related market pairs like ES and NQ to identify the stronger pair, which can offer the least resistance to your trade's target.
• 📍 Use technical analysis tools such as the 50% level of a candle's body to refine entry points and manage risk with stop-loss orders.
• 📈 Expect a continuation of the trend after a confirmed reversal and expansion, setting the stage for further moves in the anticipated direction.
• 📝 Keep a trading journal to document thought processes, setups, and outcomes to refine your trading strategy over time.
• 💡 The described process emphasizes a structured approach to trading, combining economic calendar analysis, technical analysis, and market timing.

Q & A

What is the first step the speaker takes at the start of each new week before considering price movements?

The first step the speaker takes is to review the economic calendar, specifically looking for high-impact news such as non-farm payroll, CPI, and FOMC press conferences.

Why is the speaker not interested in trading on Thursday during a bank holiday week?

The speaker avoids trading on Thursday during a bank holiday week because the market for indices is closed, and they typically take Thursday off regardless due to it being an unproductive day for trading.

What trading days are the speaker's focus for capturing a weekly range expansion?

The speaker focuses on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday for capturing a weekly range expansion, given that Thursday is a no-trading day and they avoid intraday trading before 8:30 on Friday.

What does the speaker look for on the daily chart to set the initial framework for trading?

The speaker looks for the direction and narrative on the daily chart, specifically the high and low range levels that have not been traded back to, to set the initial framework for trading.

Why is the speaker interested in the daily opening price and its relation to the daily candle's body?

The speaker is interested in the daily opening price because it helps identify a potential buying opportunity when the price runs below it but remains in respect to the previous down-close candle's body, indicating a continuation of the trend.

What does the speaker consider when comparing ES and NQ to determine the stronger pair for an upward move?

The speaker compares ES and NQ to determine the stronger pair by looking at their relative performance, such as higher lows and up-close daily candles, which indicate less resistance to the target market.

How does the speaker use the hourly chart to confirm the daily trend idea?

The speaker uses the hourly chart to look for a close above a down-close candle, which serves as a change in state of delivery and confirms the reversal, aligning with the daily trend idea.

What is the significance of the 5-minute time frame for the speaker when looking for an entry point?

The 5-minute time frame is significant for the speaker as it provides a refined entry point, allowing for a more precise moment to enter the trade based on the change and state of delivery observed on a lower time frame.

How does the speaker expect the price to behave after entering a trade based on the daily profile?

The speaker expects the price to return into the range and show aggressive, quick behavior, with down-close candles being closed above in a manner that indicates a continuation of the upward trend.

What is the speaker's strategy for Wednesday, following a Monday reversal and a Tuesday expansion?

The speaker's strategy for Wednesday is to expect a continuation higher, using the external high as the final objective to be reached, based on the established daily trend from Monday's reversal and Tuesday's expansion.

How does the speaker identify a new trade opportunity intraday?

The speaker identifies a new trade opportunity intraday by looking for a London consolidation followed by a New York session that runs out the London lows and closes above a series of down-closed candles, aligning with the daily profile and expectation for continuation.