Vibe coding is already dead

Summary

This video explores the rise and challenges of AI-powered app-building tools, like Lovable and GoPro, in the creator economy. The speaker discusses how these tools attract aspiring creators who, after the initial excitement, often churn due to difficulties in building apps or high costs. Despite this, the speaker remains hopeful about the long-term impact, drawing parallels to GoPro’s role in shaping careers. The core message highlights how these tools lower barriers to entry, potentially inspiring a small percentage of users to pursue coding and development more seriously, even if most users eventually move on.

Takeaways

• 😀 No-code/low-code tools like Lovable are often seen as a gateway for aspiring developers who want to create apps without learning to code.
• 😀 The initial excitement of using no-code platforms often fades when users realize building meaningful apps requires more than just generating code.
• 😀 Many users churn because the cost of continuing to use no-code tools becomes unsustainable or they hit a barrier in their understanding and ability to code.
• 😀 A large portion of users of these tools are hobbyists or aspiring developers who lack the long-term commitment or technical skills to continue past the initial phase.
• 😀 The market for no-code tools largely consists of people who want to be developers or create something useful but are not ready to invest in learning how to code.
• 😀 The graduation problem is a major issue, where users either outgrow the tool and move on or get stuck due to the platform’s limitations in scaling to real development needs.
• 😀 Platforms like Lovable can provide a valuable first experience for people who wouldn’t otherwise get into coding, but this is only impactful for a small percentage of users.
• 😀 The analogy to GoPro highlights that these tools can be a catalyst for personal growth, much like how a camera can inspire someone to become passionate about filming.
• 😀 The financial success of platforms like Lovable often relies on attracting a large user base, knowing that the majority will churn, but hoping to spark a few success stories that can justify the investment.
• 😀 While the success rate of no-code tools may seem low, they lower the barrier for entry into tech, giving some users the confidence to pursue more advanced coding and development skills.
• 😀 Even if most users of no-code tools eventually stop using them, the long-term positive impact on the tech ecosystem could be significant, as it might inspire the next generation of developers.

Q & A

What is the main concern the speaker has about AI-driven app builder tools like Lovable?

The speaker's main concern is that these AI-driven app builder tools, like Lovable, may not sustain user interest long-term. While they lower the barrier for entry into coding, most users will likely churn once the novelty fades, and only a small percentage of users may progress to become serious developers.

How does the speaker compare the current state of AI-powered app builders to GoPro's early years?

The speaker compares AI-powered app builders to GoPro by pointing out that both started as niche products with limited appeal, but GoPro eventually became a gateway to a broader experience (e.g., video creation) for a few users. Similarly, AI app builders might help a small group of users discover software development and go on to have a meaningful impact, even if most users abandon the tool.

What does the speaker mean by the 'graduation problem' in the context of app builders?

The 'graduation problem' refers to the challenge that users face when they either outgrow the app builder tool or become frustrated with its limitations. They either reach a point where the tool becomes too expensive to use or where they need to learn coding themselves to make meaningful progress, leading to churn.

Why does the speaker believe that selling to 'aspiring' creators is a mistake?

The speaker believes selling to aspiring creators is a mistake because they are often not committed enough to stick with the tool or platform long-term. These users may drop off once they realize the tool can’t meet all their needs or if they lose interest after building their first project.

What is the difference between the user bases of tools like Lovable and tools like Curser?

Tools like Lovable tend to attract aspiring creators, who are more likely to churn because they aren't fully invested in the process or are looking for something that will make building apps easier without putting in the work. In contrast, Curser is designed for more serious developers who are already familiar with coding, making its user base more likely to engage long-term.

What role does the speaker think tools like Lovable will play in the future of software development?

The speaker sees tools like Lovable as important for lowering the entry barrier to coding, allowing people to experiment with app creation early in their learning journey. While many users may eventually leave, these tools could ignite interest in coding for a few people, possibly leading them to pursue more serious software development careers.

How does the speaker view the relationship between the cost of using AI-powered app builders and user retention?

The speaker believes that as users engage more with AI-powered app builders, the costs of using these tools can increase significantly, leading to user churn. Those who aren’t willing to pay for additional features or computing power will likely abandon the tool, while those who need to learn coding will face a barrier to progressing without more effort or investment.

What does the speaker suggest about the potential long-term impact of platforms like Lovable, despite their challenges?

The speaker acknowledges that while many users of platforms like Lovable may eventually stop using the tool, the platform could still have a long-term positive impact by helping a small percentage of users discover coding and software development. These users might go on to build something significant, benefiting the broader tech ecosystem.

Why does the speaker refer to AI app builders as 'the new version of a GoPro'?

The speaker compares AI app builders to GoPro because both products serve as a gateway for a small group of users to explore a broader interest. Just as GoPro sparked a larger interest in video content creation for some, AI app builders might inspire a new generation of developers, even if most users don’t stick around.

What is the speaker's overall take on the future of AI-driven tools for coding and app building?

The speaker is cautiously optimistic about the future of AI-driven tools for coding and app building. While they recognize that many users will abandon these tools, they believe that these platforms lower the barrier to entry for new developers and might have a long-term positive effect by introducing more people to coding, even if only a small percentage continue to pursue it seriously.