Brexit Talks Stalled With Canada
Summary
TLDR视频讨论了英国脱欧后贸易谈判的现实和挑战。脱欧派曾承诺的自由贸易协议并未如预期实现,反而导致了与加拿大等国家的贸易谈判暂停。视频中指出,脱欧后英国市场变小,失去了欧盟的谈判力,导致在贸易谈判中不得不做出更多让步。此外,英国政府急于证明脱欧的好处,导致在与澳大利亚等国家的谈判中过早让步,从而为其他国家设定了更高的要求。视频还提到,贸易谈判通常需要很长时间,而英国政府试图在短时间内完成,这导致了不利的贸易协议。最后,视频强调了脱欧对英国贸易的负面影响,并呼吁公众认识到这一点,以便采取行动。
Takeaways
- 🇬🇧 英国脱欧后,与加拿大的贸易谈判暂停,突显了脱欧现实与预期之间的差距。
- 🤔 脱欧派曾主张离开欧盟单一市场和关税同盟是为了更自由的贸易协议,但现实是贸易协议的谈判比预期要复杂得多。
- 🚫 脱欧后,英国拒绝接受含有激素的牛肉进口和对奶酪出口征收高关税,这导致了与加拿大贸易谈判的暂停。
- 📉 脱欧支持者曾声称脱欧后英国可以更灵活地进行贸易谈判,但实际情况是英国在谈判中处于劣势,不得不做出更多让步。
- 😕 英国政府在与澳大利亚的贸易谈判中做出了过多让步,这可能使得其他国家在与英国的谈判中也提出更高要求。
- 👍 脱欧的一个论点是,作为一个单独的国家,英国可以更快速地达成贸易协议,但迄今为止,英国并未展现出这种灵活性。
- 📈 脱欧前,有人预期脱欧将带来贸易协议上的好处,但官方的经济影响评估显示这些协议并没有带来重大的经济利益。
- 🤝 脱欧派认为,离开欧盟后,英国可以单独与其他国家进行更有利的贸易谈判,但现实是英国并未能实现这一目标。
- ⏳ 贸易谈判通常需要很长时间才能完成,但英国政府试图在短时间内完成谈判,这可能导致了不利的协议。
- 👎 脱欧的一些承诺,如与美国的贸易协议,并未实现,这进一步凸显了脱欧在贸易方面面临的挑战。
- 🌟 脱欧实验在多个层面上失败了,特别是在贸易协议方面,英国并没有获得比作为欧盟成员国时更好的条件。
Q & A
为什么英国脱欧后与加拿大的贸易谈判暂停了?
-英国与加拿大的贸易谈判暂停主要是因为双方在某些关键问题上存在分歧,例如英国拒绝接受加拿大含有激素的牛肉出口,同时加拿大对英国奶酪出口提出高额关税。这些分歧导致谈判陷入僵局,因此双方决定暂时停止谈判。
脱欧后,英国为何难以达成有利的贸易协议?
-脱欧后,英国失去了作为欧盟成员国时的市场规模优势,成为一个更小的市场,这使得英国在贸易谈判中处于劣势,不得不比在欧盟时放弃更多本国企业的保护措施。此外,其他国家意识到英国急于达成协议,从而提高了对英国的要求。
为什么说脱欧后英国的贸易协议并没有比欧盟时期更好?
-根据官方的经济影响评估,脱欧后的贸易协议并没有给英国带来比欧盟时期更多的贸易好处。实际上,英国失去了与欧盟的无摩擦贸易,而新达成的贸易协议并没有补偿这一损失。
脱欧支持者关于贸易协议的一个合理假设是什么?
-脱欧支持者认为,由于单一市场在达成贸易协议时需要妥协以满足二十多个成员国的需求,英国单独行动时可以更灵活、更快地安排协议,因为只需要满足英国和谈判国双方的需求。
为什么说脱欧后英国并没有展现出更灵活的贸易谈判能力?
-尽管理论上英国脱欧后应该能够更灵活地进行贸易谈判,但实际上英国并没有利用这种灵活性获得更好的贸易条件。相反,英国在与日本、澳大利亚、新西兰以及欧盟的谈判中做出了让步,导致贸易条件比预期更差。
脱欧对英国农业的影响是什么?
-脱欧对英国农业产生了负面影响,因为新的贸易协议可能会使英国市场对外国农产品更加开放,这对本土农民构成了竞争压力。同时,英国农民对于贸易协议中的让步表示不满。
为什么说脱欧实验在贸易协议方面失败了?
-脱欧实验在贸易协议方面失败了,因为英国并没有实现脱欧支持者所承诺的更优贸易条件。相反,英国失去了欧盟成员国身份带来的贸易优势,而且新达成的贸易协议并没有为英国的商业和消费者带来实质性的好处。
脱欧后,英国应该如何进行贸易谈判?
-脱欧后,英国应该坚持合理的时间表进行贸易谈判,不应该急于求成。应该坚持自己的利益,不轻易让步,确保最终达成的贸易协议对英国的商业和消费者都是一个净收益。
为什么脱欧后英国与美国的贸易协议迟迟未能实现?
-脱欧后英国与美国的贸易协议未能实现的原因可能与美国政府的立场有关。据英国商务大臣的说法,美国现任政府并没有表现出达成贸易协议的意愿,这可能与英国在脱欧后贸易立场的不确定性有关。
脱欧后,英国在贸易谈判中的地位如何?
-脱欧后,英国失去了作为欧盟成员国时的市场规模优势,因此在贸易谈判中的地位相对较弱。英国需要在谈判中做出更多让步,以吸引其他国家与其达成贸易协议。
脱欧对英国经济的长期影响是什么?
-脱欧对英国经济的长期影响尚未完全显现,但根据目前的情况分析,脱欧并没有带来预期的贸易好处,反而可能导致英国失去与欧盟的无摩擦贸易,长期来看可能会对英国经济产生负面影响。
英国公众如何看待目前的脱欧贸易协议?
-根据视频中的信息,英国公众对于目前的脱欧贸易协议持批评态度。他们认为这些协议并没有带来预期的经济好处,而且对于政府在谈判中的让步表示不满。
Outlines
😀 脱欧贸易谈判的现实困境
第一段主要讨论了脱欧后英国与加拿大贸易谈判的暂停,以及脱欧对英国贸易政策的影响。提到了脱欧时的一些主要论点,如离开关税同盟和单一市场以获得贸易自由,但实际上这与移民问题无关。强调了脱欧派承诺的贸易协议与现实之间的差距,以及脱欧后英国在贸易谈判中的地位变弱,导致无法快速达成有利的贸易协议。还提到了英国对澳大利亚贸易谈判的让步,以及这如何影响了与其他国家的谈判立场。
😐 脱欧贸易策略的失败与反思
第二段深入分析了脱欧后英国贸易策略的失败,批评了约翰逊政府为了快速达成贸易协议而牺牲了太多利益。讨论了贸易谈判的复杂性,以及为何英国未能利用脱欧后的灵活性来获得更好的贸易条件。还提到了保守党内部对当前贸易协议的批评,以及农民对贸易协议的不满。最后,指出了脱欧对英国贸易政策的长期影响,以及为何需要更长时间来达成真正互惠的贸易协议。
😞 脱欧贸易协议的现实与挑战
第三段对脱欧贸易协议的现实效果进行了批判,指出官方经济影响评估显示这些贸易协议并没有带来显著的好处,而脱欧却让英国失去了很多。强调了公众对于脱欧贸易协议效果的质疑,以及这种质疑对于采取行动的重要性。最后,呼吁人们认识到脱欧并没有带来预期的贸易利益,而是给英国经济带来了实际的伤害。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡脱欧
💡贸易谈判
💡关税同盟
💡移民
💡贸易协议
💡市场准入
💡经济影响评估
💡保守党
💡牛肉和奶酪关税
💡贸易专家
💡媒体关注
Highlights
上周英国脱欧相关的重大新闻之一是与加拿大的贸易谈判暂停,这突显了脱欧后贸易谈判的复杂性。
脱欧派主张离开关税同盟和单一市场,以获得贸易自由,但现实中这与移民问题并无直接关联。
脱欧后,英国失去了与欧盟的贸易优势,导致新的贸易协议难以达成,且条件往往不如之前。
脱欧派现在试图声称脱欧并非关于贸易协议,这表明他们意识到在贸易协议上未能兑现承诺。
英国在与澳大利亚的贸易谈判中做出了过多让步,这可能使得其他国家在与英国的谈判中采取更强硬的立场。
贸易谈判中,市场规模较大的一方通常拥有更多的议价能力,脱欧使英国失去了这一优势。
脱欧后英国急于达成贸易协议以兑现对公众的承诺,这使得英国在谈判中处于不利地位。
与新西兰的贸易协议对新西兰非常有利,而英国得到的条款并不理想。
贸易专家认为,与主要市场的贸易谈判可能需要长达十年的时间才能完成。
英国政府为了快速达成贸易协议,可能会在谈判中对对方的要求做出过多让步。
当前的保守党领导层可能不再像之前那样重视快速的贸易协议头条新闻,因为这些协议的成本很高。
一些保守党议员公开批评当前贸易协议的软弱,英国农民也对这些协议感到不满。
脱欧后英国面临的两种选择是:要么快速同意对方所有要求以达成协议,要么坚持自己的立场,进行长期谈判。
脱欧的现实是,英国无法通过脱欧来谈判出比作为欧盟成员国更好的贸易协议。
脱欧支持者提出的一些论点在理论上是合理的,但实际结果证明他们是错误的。
脱欧派认为英国单独行动可以更灵活、更快地达成贸易协议,但事实上英国并没有做到这一点。
英国与日本、澳大利亚、新西兰以及欧盟的贸易协议并没有达到选民被承诺的水平。
脱欧实验在多个层面上失败了,特别是在贸易协议方面。
英国政府官方的经济影响评估显示,这些贸易协议并没有带来重大的积极影响。
脱欧带来的是更多的自我伤害,而不是任何即使是假设的长期利益。
Transcripts
hi marville I like talking about
politics and as we draw to the end of a
week when the wheels have fallen off the
brexit wagon again like to discuss the
reasons and realities surrounding the
pausing trade negotiations with Canada
the latest case of brexit hitting
reality and getting a headache but first
if you'd like to be notified of daily
news and politics please subscribe to
the channel so there was a bit of a
blizzard of major brexit stories last
week and in between the Tory psycho
dramas still working through them but
the collapse of trade talks with Canada
is a particularly interesting one
because it goes right to the heart of
the main reason for particularly leaving
the Customs Union leaving the single
Market was largely argued on the basis
of getting voters to believe freedom of
movement was linked to the forms of
immigration that brexiteers complained
about in reality of course it wasn't as
has been shown since but the Customs
Union why would people object to the
Customs Union when it just makes trade
easier and cheaper with our Major Market
without it having anything whatsoever to
do with immigration
trade deals inside a customs Union
really tricky to embark on the wonderful
trade deals that brex promised us the
fact that these trade deals have now all
turned out to be at best as good as the
ones we had with the EU and in many
cases now significantly worse seems to
be neither here nor there and in fact
after this week some brexiteers are
trying to argue that brexit was never
about trade deals and every time
brexiteers say oh no it wasn't about
this thing at all because they know
they've lost that argument but it was we
can find out it was we've still got
their literature and and then he thinks
yourself but in that case okay so then
presumably you've got no objection to
rejoin the Customs Union then in reality
there are objections but never mind that
for now we're not in a position to
rejoin the EU as a whole or single
Market individually we could negotiate a
customs Union with the EU in a much more
reasonable time scale unfortunately the
media never asked the brexiters why we
shouldn't now so I can't pass on their
response to that but there are responses
which I'll cover in another video next
week but what happened this week to
shine a spotlight on it all well first
business secretary KY bad knck broached
the subject of why we don't have a US
trade deal as promised it was promised
we're going to have a US trade deal oh
it's all America's fault she said Biden
doesn't want one you know so I can't
deliver it so I guess we didn't hold all
the cards then after all then later on
talks with Canada were paused we're
refusing to accept hormone injected beef
good which Canada wants to export to us
and they're wanting to apply eye
watering tariffs to our cheese exports
to them oh we're not so keen on that the
talks were seemingly going nowhere so
now they've been stopped for a while
this is not uncommon this happens with
trade talks um David henck has suggested
that Canada have been pursuing a very
tough line in the negotiations something
that might be partly explained by the
fact that we caved completely to
Australia thus letting everyone else
know that we were desperate
interestingly I've made the same points
myself at the time without being
anything close to a trade expert it's
almost like it was obvious if you
completely cave into the demands of a
country with an economy the size of
Australia which is not tiny but it's not
G7 level then obviously countries with
an even greater economy are going to set
a high bar for agreement themselves in
fact before we even left the EU I used
to regularly point out two realities
that were always going to bite us on the
ass when it came to trade deals first so
the way trade talks work is each side
wants to gain enhanced access to the
other's Market without opening up their
own Market too much they know they're
going to have to do it a bit but you
know they don't want to over eg it well
a larger market can open up its own
Market a tiny little bit in a way that's
worth a lot to that smaller market so a
larger market has an upper hand in trade
talks because they don't have to concede
as much to get agreement but by leaving
the EU we became a much smaller market
for trade talks meaning that we would
always have to give up more protections
for our own businesses than we did in
the EU to strike a deal second
absolutely everyone negotiating us would
know that we were desperate to do a deal
in order to sell the benefits of brexit
to an expectant public what Boris
Johnson was never going to get away with
was right we can embark on all these new
great trade deals now and people go so
when could we expect to see them prime
minister out about 10 years time no no
no that couldn't happen and so it turned
out to be never mind Australia New
Zealand walked away with a trade deal
very much in their favor we were
basically getting the sort of deals
which tiny markets would have to accept
not one of the largest in the world but
the reality of brexit threw a third
third factor in as well once you
actually concede unwisely generous terms
to one country all the other countries
want the same what hen's pointing out is
because because Johnson and Truss caved
into Australia on so much just to get
their positive headlines it gave the
green light for everyone else to demand
more had we approached each trade deal
on its own merits had we observed
sensible red lines and stuck by them as
fiercely as the brex stood by their EU
red lines then we could have been in a
much stronger position and this was all
caused because trade experts would say
that trade negotiations can take up to a
decade to conclude with major markets
and Johnson had to prove them wrong by
completing them in a matter of months
but of course anyone can conclude a
trade talk in a matter of months if you
give the other side everything they ask
for the years of talks are supposed to
be each side moving very slowly towards
each other until they get agreement to
make sure that you don't give away more
than you need to to get the best deal
for yourself but to show also that
you're a tough cookie for the next
Market you negotiate with what we did
was basically tell Canada and everyone
else but Canada is a G7 country we were
willing to be bent over and spanked by
New Zealand so of course we would give
our North American cousins whatever they
asked for only things have changed a bit
back when when Johnson was in charge
there is no doubt in my mind Canada
would have secured the terms it wanted
but the bitter taste of our first trade
deals is having an effect now even some
conservative MPS are openly criticizing
the weakness of these deals and British
farmers are not best pleased either and
you know the Tories need agricultural
areas the current Tory leadership does
not seem to see as much value in a nice
headline in the Daily Express when it
comes at such a cost so now they're
finding they can't strike deals at all
because we always had two choices when
it came to brexit trade deals either
agree to everything the other side
wanted and get a quick one or stick to
our guns and be forced to negotiate them
slowly properly over many years and not
be able to post any positive headlines
to the news Because by the time we'd
secured that deal whoever was in charge
at the start of the negotiations would
be long gone by then because these deals
take place over much more than the span
of a single Parliament frankly although
this latest episode is embarrassing and
should be embarrassing for brex Te it's
no bad thing for the country because
mutually beneficial trade deals do take
so many years and can easily start on
under one government and conclude under
another so we can do with the media
Spotlight not being not not on it
because we don't want it to become party
political they should really be taking
place in the background too boring to
report on except when we get to the
business end of talks and those talks
should never be concluded unless the
deal is a net benefit to both our
businesses and consumers and no a
hypothetical
0.05% boost to GDP in 20 years is not a
net benefit basically the brexit
experiment has failed on so many levels
and certainly when it comes to trade
deals now don't get me wrong brexiteers
did make an argument which was not
utterly ridiculous when it came to
negotiations you know an awful lot of
the things that were promised with
brexit were childishly stupid were never
going to happen but there were a couple
of arguments brexiters genuinely had so
with one of them it was went like this
remainers argued that the larger single
Market would always be able to get
better trade deals because of its huge
Consumer Power brexiteers argued that
the problem with the single Market trade
deals is there was too much compromise
because they had to satisfy over two
dozen countries every single member
State got a a vote on whether they
approved it or not a single country
could sink a trade deal as has happened
whereas the UK on its own can be nimbler
arrange quicker deals because you only
have to satisfy two countries the UK and
whichever one were negotiating
with this was a reasonable hypothesis in
theory but the facts show that they
actually just got it wrong we haven't
managed to use our new found nimbleness
to get better trade deals we initially
gave into the demands of Japan Australia
New Zealand as well as the EU and have
found ourselves with much worse trading
terms when voters were promised the same
or better so now we've tried to stick to
our guns and are finding ourselves with
no deal at all so now we're in a hall
brexit is not allowing us to negotiate
decent trade deals not everyone is
accepting that yet but the reality is
that we are not going to negotiate any
trade deals with any market around the
world that is better than the one we
would have had as an EU member that is
being demonstrated ever more clearly
with each passing year the solution
isn't easy though uh but I as I say I'm
likely to discuss that in a standalone
video in the near future over the next
week I hope until then this pausing the
trade talks with Canada it should be
another way call right consider what's
happened over the past few four years of
brexit a lot of noise in the media about
their oh great trade deal and this great
trade deal and that great trade oh look
at all these trade deals so where are
the benefits then where's the benefit to
our trade oh not actually improved trade
oh dear what does the official analysis
say is going to improve because never
mind what a minister might tell a
newspaper and the newspaper May tell
their readers where there are no
consequences for lying the official
economic impact assessment that the
government publish say that we gain
nothing of consequence from these trade
deals yet we know we lost a great deal
with our hard brexit and the more people
see this the quicker we will be able to
take action because right now we are
just hurting ourselves for no even
hypothetical benefit there isn't going
to be a benefit in five years 10 years
20 years doesn't matter how long but
there we are those are my thoughts let
me know yours in the comments below I
hope you found the video interesting if
you did please click the like button if
you'd like to support the channel
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and until next time I'll see you later
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What's Top of Mind for Global Supply Chains Today?
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Beyond the Box Episode 8: The Red Sea & the domino effect of disruptions
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Protecting IP and Trade Secrets in a Time of Supply Chain Shortages
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