Maersk Trade Talk: To enable better trade

Summary

在这段访谈中，Jana与嘉宾讨论了海运贸易的现状和未来趋势。嘉宾来自国际海事组织（IMO），他们的角色是帮助发展中国家更好地进行贸易。他们通过研究、论坛讨论以及提供技术援助来支持成员国。访谈中提到了集装箱贸易和端到端物流的显著发展，以及供应链危机对通货膨胀的影响。此外，还探讨了政策制定者如何应对海运业的挑战，包括即将到来的能源转型和减碳需求。嘉宾强调了为实现海运业的绿色转型，需要一个可预测的、多边的框架来鼓励投资，并帮助最不发达国家应对气候变化的影响。

Takeaways

• 😀 该访谈讨论了海运贸易的当前状况和未来趋势，以及与全球供应链相关的问题。
• 🌐 国际海事组织（IMO）和世界贸易组织（WTO）的成员国在海运政策和谈判中扮演着重要角色。
• 📈 近年来，海运成本的极端波动和供应链危机对全球贸易产生了显著影响，包括对通货膨胀和消费者价格的影响。
• 🚢 船运公司在疫情期间获得了高额利润，但这也暴露了供应链的脆弱性和需要改进的地方。
• 💡 对于政策制定者来说，理解长期趋势和法规对海运成本的影响至关重要，以避免未来潜在的供应链危机。
• 🛳️ 海运业正面临船只尺寸可能达到极限的挑战，这可能会影响行业的整合和竞争。
• 🔍 2023年，IMO将实施新的立法措施，这些措施可能会对航运环境产生影响，包括潜在的成本增加。
• 🌿 能源转型和绿色燃料的采用是海运业面临的主要挑战之一，需要一个可预测和多边的框架来促进投资。
• 📊 技术进步，特别是在供应链可见性和自动化方面，是提高效率和应对未来挑战的关键。
• 🎁 访谈结束时提出的三个愿望包括：实现碳定价、确保及时投资以支持能源转型，以及利用未来技术来推动行业的脱碳。

Q & A

Jana在海事领域的工作职责是什么？

Jana在海事领域的工作主要是帮助发展中国家更好地进行贸易。这包括进行研究，提供公共产品，如海运国家概况的审查；提供论坛供成员国讨论；提供技术援助，如港口培训、改革和智能港口建设合同等。

海运成本上涨对通货膨胀和消费者价格有何影响？

根据Jana的模拟，海运成本的上涨会导致消费者价格额外增加1.5个百分点。特别是对于低价值大批量产品和高价值产品，这些产品在生产过程中需要多次移动，对供应链的影响更大。

为什么说海运成本的上涨对某些产品影响特别大？

对于低价值大批量产品，如塑料花园椅，海运成本从2000美元上涨到15000美元会开始产生影响，可能会导致在欧洲不再从亚洲购买，而是在东欧生产。对于高价值产品，尽管运输成本在总价值中所占比例很小，但由于这些产品在生产过程中需要多次移动，因此对供应链的影响也很大。

在海运领域，有哪些因素导致了供应链危机？

供应链危机的原因包括需求的急剧增加、船舶供应不足、船舶位置错误以及在订单量低时没有新船只加入市场。这些因素共同导致了海运成本的急剧上升。

Jana如何看待未来海运领域的发展趋势？

Jana认为，未来海运领域将面临能源转型和脱碳化的挑战。此外，他还提到了船只尺寸的停滞不前，以及这可能对行业整合和竞争产生的影响。

为什么说船只尺寸的停滞可能影响海运行业的竞争格局？

在过去几十年中，船只尺寸的不断增加为能够负担得起的承运商带来了规模经济，使他们能够以更低的成本提供服务。但如果船只尺寸不再增加，那些无法通过增加规模来降低成本的承运商可能会重新开始相互竞争，这可能导致运价下降。

海运行业面临的最大挑战是什么，Jana有哪些建议？

Jana认为海运行业面临的最大挑战是能源转型和脱碳化。他建议需要一个可预测的、多边的框架来鼓励投资，并避免重复最近的供应链危机。此外，他还强调了技术在提高供应链效率方面的重要性。

为什么说技术进步是海运行业的关键因素？

技术进步可以帮助实现更高效的供应链管理，例如通过单一窗口、先进的路线规划、海关自动化、智能港口和预到达处理等措施。这些技术的应用可以提高物流效率，降低成本，并增强供应链的透明度和可预测性。

Jana对海运行业的未来有哪些期望或愿望？

Jana的三个愿望包括：实现碳排放的经济措施和市场基础措施，以使替代燃料具有竞争力；确保及时的投资，以支持能源转型；以及技术的快速发展，以支持海运行业的现代化和脱碳化。

为什么说及时的投资对于海运行业的未来发展至关重要？

及时的投资对于海运行业的未来发展至关重要，因为它们可以确保有足够的、合适的船舶和基础设施来满足未来的需求。如果投资不足或不及时，可能会导致船舶供应不足，从而推高运输成本，影响全球贸易。

Jana如何看待国际海事组织(IMO)在海运行业未来发展中的作用？

Jana认为IMO在海运行业的未来发展中扮演着重要角色。他提到了IMO即将实施的一些立法措施，并强调了这些措施对于推动行业向更环保、更可持续的方向发展的重要性。

Outlines

00:00

😀 介绍海事贸易和角色定位

在第一段中，Jana作为嘉宾被邀请参与对话，讨论了她在国际海事组织（IMO）的工作和角色。她所在的组织致力于帮助发展中国家更好地进行贸易，通过研究、论坛讨论和提供技术援助来支持成员国。Jana提到了他们对海运国家概况的审查，以及如何通过研究和论坛来帮助成员国理解、谈判和准备，例如在WTO的谈判中。此外，她还提到了对端到端物流和集装箱贸易的观察，以及近期供应链危机对价格和需求的影响。

05:01

📈 货运率上涨和供应链危机的影响

第二段中，Jana深入讨论了货运率的大幅上涨以及供应链危机对不同产品的影响。她指出，低价值高体积的产品，如塑料花园椅，以及高价值产品，如医疗设备，都受到了显著影响。Jana还提到了他们如何模拟高运费率对通货膨胀和消费者价格的影响，并与IMF的发现相一致。此外，她强调了稳定和可预测的监管环境对于私营和公共部门的投资至关重要。

10:03

🚢 航运趋势和船只规模的未来

在第三段中，讨论了航运业的未来趋势，包括货物运输的平均距离、库存持有份额的变化，以及发展中国家进口的增长。Jana指出，尽管长期以来船只的最大尺寸一直在增长，但近年来这种趋势似乎已经停滞。她提出了一个问题，即航运公司是否会继续通过降低运费来竞争，或者是否会因为船只尺寸的稳定而改变策略。此外，她还提到了对航运业进一步整合的潜在影响。

15:05

💹 供需曲线变化对航运成本的影响

第四段中，Jana分析了供需曲线的变化如何影响航运成本。她解释了固定成本和变动成本之间的关系如何导致供应曲线变得更陡峭，从而使得运费率更加波动。Jana强调了对未来法规、燃料价格和能源转型的不确定性如何导致投资者犹豫不决，这可能会进一步加剧供应不足和运费上涨。

20:06

🌐 IMO法规变化及其对航运业的影响

第五段中，Jana讨论了国际海事组织（IMO）即将到来的法规变化及其可能对航运环境产生的影响。她提到了IMO的短期措施的经济影响评估，并强调了市场基础措施的重要性，这些措施可以提高传统燃料的价格，使替代燃料更具竞争力，并为能源转型提供资金。Jana还指出了这些措施可能对最不发达国家和小岛屿国家的积极影响。

25:07

🔄 贸易模式的转变和供应链的重新设计

在第六段中，Jana探讨了COVID-19期间以及之后贸易模式的转变，以及这些转变背后的驱动因素。她提到了企业对于供应链的多元化和重新设计的需求，以及对于更短距离和更少层级的供应链的偏好。Jana还讨论了技术和数据共享在实现更高效和透明的供应链中的作用，以及贸易链项目（TradeLens）的挑战和机遇。

30:07

🎯 对未来航运业的三个愿望

在最后一段中，Jana表达了她对航运业未来的三个愿望。首先，她希望建立一个全球性的碳定价机制，以促进替代燃料的发展并为能源转型提供资金。其次，她强调了及时投资的重要性，以及需要一个可预测的框架来避免未来的供应不足。最后，她对技术进步持乐观态度，并鼓励IMO成员国考虑未来的技术发展，以实现航运业的脱碳目标。

Keywords

💡海事组织(IMO)

海事组织(International Maritime Organization, IMO)是联合国下属的一个专门机构，负责制定国际海运安全和船舶操作的规范和标准。在视频中，海事组织被提及为制定未来海运业减排和能源转型相关政策的关键组织，例如2023年即将实施的一些立法措施。

💡世界贸易组织(WTO)

世界贸易组织(World Trade Organization, WTO)是负责监管成员国之间贸易关系的全球性国际组织。视频中提到，海事组织的成员国也是世界贸易组织的成员，这表明国际贸易和海运业务的紧密联系，以及这些组织在促进全球贸易效率方面的作用。

💡集装箱贸易

集装箱贸易是指通过集装箱船进行的货物运输方式，它极大地促进了全球贸易的发展。视频中提到，集装箱运输约占航运价值的三分之二，突显了集装箱贸易在海运业中的重要性。

💡供应链危机

供应链危机是指在供应链中由于各种原因（如疫情、自然灾害等）导致的中断或效率下降。视频中讨论了近年来的供应链危机，以及它对航运成本和全球贸易流动的影响。

💡运费率

运费率是指运输公司为提供运输服务而收取的费用。视频中提到了运费率的极端波动，如从2000美元上涨到15000美元，这种波动对全球供应链和消费者价格产生了显著影响。

💡能源转型

能源转型指的是从依赖化石燃料向使用更清洁、更可持续的能源形式转变。视频中强调了海运业在能源转型中面临的挑战和机遇，以及对新型船舶和港口基础设施的投资需求。

💡市场基础措施

市场基础措施是一种经济手段，通过市场机制来实现政策目标，如减少污染或温室气体排放。视频中提到，海事组织正在考虑实施市场基础措施来促进海运业的减排。

💡技术援助

技术援助是指发达国家或国际组织为帮助发展中国家提高技术水平和生产能力而提供的技术和知识支持。视频中提到，海事组织提供技术援助，帮助成员国改进港口运营和海关自动化程序。

💡贸易便利化

贸易便利化是指采取措施简化和加快国际贸易流程，降低贸易成本。视频中提到了贸易便利化在提高港口效率和促进贸易方面的作用，以及技术在实现贸易便利化中的重要性。

💡碳定价

碳定价是指对温室气体排放进行定价，以激励减排和促进清洁能源技术的发展。视频中提到，海事组织正在考虑实施碳定价机制，以推动海运业的能源转型和减排。

💡供应链可视化

供应链可视化是指使用技术手段实时监控供应链中的货物流动，以便更好地管理和调整。视频中讨论了技术在实现供应链可视化方面的潜力，以及它如何帮助提高供应链的效率和韧性。

💡贸易模式转变

贸易模式转变是指贸易流向、贸易伙伴关系或贸易结构的变化。视频中提到，COVID-19疫情加速了贸易模式的转变，促使企业考虑多元化供应链和提高供应链的韧性。

💡船队更新

船队更新是指船运公司更新其船舶，以提高能效和减少环境影响。视频中提到，由于对未来燃料和排放规定的不确定性，船运公司可能推迟更新船队，这可能影响海运业的长期发展。

Highlights

Jana在讨论中提到了海事组织（IMO）和世界贸易组织（WTO）在帮助发展中国家改善贸易方面的重要作用。

海事组织提供研究、论坛和技术支持，以帮助成员国改善港口运营和海关自动化程序。

近年来，集装箱贸易和端到端物流的非凡发展，包括运费的大幅上涨和供应链危机。

海事组织通过模拟研究预测了运费上涨对通货膨胀和消费者价格的影响。

高运费对低价值大体积产品和高价值产品的消费者价格影响最大。

政策制定者和利益相关者对航运公司高利润和运费上涨的反应和学习。

海事组织强调了稳定和可预测的监管法律环境对于私人和公共部门投资的重要性。

讨论了航运业的未来趋势，包括航运距离、库存持有份额和发展中国家进口比例的变化。

船队规模和整合的长期趋势，以及当前可能达到的最大船只尺寸限制。

船公司可能停止低价竞争，这可能与贸易地理和供应链的变化或船只尺寸的长期停滞有关。

讨论了航运成本结构的变化，包括固定成本和变动成本对供应曲线和运费波动性的影响。

海事组织强调了未来法规、燃料和CO2价格的不确定性对投资的影响。

国际海事组织（IMO）2023年的立法将对航运环境产生影响，包括短期措施的经济影响评估。

市场基础措施如碳定价可能带来的积极影响，包括为能源转型筹集资金和帮助最脆弱的国家。

讨论了实施市场基础措施的障碍，包括政治因素和国际间的分歧。

疫情加速了供应链的转变，包括对多元化和供应链深度的重新考虑。

技术进步被视为实现供应链可见性和效率的关键，但也存在数据共享和业务模型的挑战。

Jana对未来的三个愿望：碳定价、及时投资以及技术发展，以支持航运业的能源转型。

Transcripts

Jana welcome to this mask trade talk

really happy to have you here happy to

be here thanks for the invite

um maybe we just kick off with uh you

explaining a bit of what you do at home

tag you've been around a couple of

decades what's what's your role what do

you do uh what's your perspective on the

maritime first yeah I'm Chad we like to

say we think debate and deliver and it's

all paid for by your taxes thank you

very much

so our terms of reference are to help

developing countries trade better so we

do research for these public goods like

our review of Maritime transport country

profiles so then we debate we provide a

forum for member countries however

countries are also the member countries

of the WTO World Trade Organization they

are also the member companies of the IMO

International Organization

so by helping them learn understand

negotiate behave them also prepare for

negotiations for example in other

foreign

then the third part they deliver is a

lot of technical assistance

um really going into a port and and

training helping reforming build up

smart ports conception contracts other

groups have Customs automation programs

a lot of practical technical assistance

so all in all and in this thinking here

together the the first part is research

I see as a like interpreters or

translators so we'll try to learn we

participate in academic for a private

sector forward and then we transmit this

to our clients The Negotiator The

Ambassador in Geneva the ministry the

Port Authority Maritime Authority in the

countries I like this image of

translators interpreters are trying to

understand what's going on and certainly

uh over the last couple of years we've

seen an extraordinary set of

developments in particularly container

trade and end-to-end Logistics

um you've been watching trade for as you

said quite some decades

um what what have we learned what have

you learned from observing this most

recent period yeah I mean this huge

search in Freight rates the whole

congestion situation the whole supply

chain crisis

in other flipping segments we had seen

similar situations before we had seen

the three hundred thousand dollars per

day for a dry body carrier 2007-2008 we

had seen not so long ago that oil

tankers all of a sudden became very

valuable you're saying three thousand

dollars per day with the oil price went

negative nobody wanted oil what do I do

with it I need an oil tanker to store it

and if you need 20

containers or container ships or oil

tank as a driver candle and they are

only 19.

the elasticity of demand and yeah both

economists needs

the price goes through the roof I pay

whatever it takes now the most recent

supply chain crisis or the container

restraint which is about two-thirds of

value of shipping now it's in the

containers

um so

so I really want this

Smartphone for Christmas I really need

this screw as a spare part I really need

this component to build my Globus

production so I pay whatever it takes

and then we say that's in a very steep

demand curve and if then the supply

moves to the left the Steep supply curve

because shifts spend 20 more important

because the containers are at the wrong

place because the crisis called in the

wrong moment when the order book was

very low there were no new Ships coming

it was crazy they went through the roof

and then another lesson learned then

from this particular one

we are quite proud that now a bit more

than a year ago we simulated the impact

on inflation on consumer prices so a

year what September October we did that

simulation

we did not yet see inflation there were

policy makers academics

columnists of the New York Times writing

don't worry

he said well at least these high Freight

rates in container shipping and our

simulation will lead to 1.5 additional

Consular prices

it's only that little in the bottom but

six months later the IMF I think you

used to work there so I think they are

trustworthy they measured they measured

what really caused the then surging

inflation

they said 1.5 percentage points was due

to higher Freight rate so we were really

spot on and of course they're different

products

and it is true that for many products

you say notice today whether the freight

rate is 2000 or 15 000.

but I found interesting two types of

products are particularly

impacted one type of product are very

cheap

like low value high volume think of

plastic garden chairs yeah Container

full of white plastic if they're the

freight rate goes up from two thousand

to fifteen thousand

starts making a difference and you then

no longer buy them in Europe made in

Asia or you would start making them in

southern Eastern Europe instead and the

other one that I found even more

interesting

some very high value products

the only small part of the values is yes

but during the production process of

that high value Optical medical

equipment cost

the inputs The Unfinished products the

bits and pieces are moved several times

very so-called deep Supply chains so

there for some of these products our

simulation said

10 11 12 percent additional

percentage points additional consumer

prices on these products but I think

Lessons Learned

first of all it matters and a little

shortage of Supply can lead to a high

increase I think we come back to this

later and discuss with the few 20

carbonization and energy transition

and well it actually does matter for

prices and

so yeah we were quite a lot in in the

Press with our simulation because I want

to report with this Bloomberg Financial

Times oil wow and that was one of the

Lessons Learned in the dialogue uh you

and and what we've had with with policy

makers has also been a lot of learnings

there from their side how have you seen

that have you seen that sort of insight

and supply chain evolving and they're

thinking around the the policies around

Supply chains and resilience

yeah especially during these last couple

of years unfortunately there was a lot

of playing game of course I understand

that the people's stakeholders policy

makers are not happy

carriers did make high profits and the

freight rates went up and waiting time

schedule reliability went down so

we really tried to contribute to the

understanding what are the long-term

underlying courses and Trends what

explains differences in Freight rates

um come up with some suggestions about

trade efficiency and ports about

regulation there's a lot of discussion

what Anti-Trust Community should be

given to alliances or not so so we

really try to be neutral and look at the

facts and like this yeah help policy

makers Regulators stakeholders

um yeah come to

amicable constructive Positive Solutions

yeah and in this particular reason yeah

we can call it surprise supply chain

crisis

uh

I think one of the Lessons Learned is to

continue the previous question

the need for the

stable predictable environment

regulatory legal environment

private sector and public sector need to

invest early in time and to do this you

need to know what will be the future

price of carbon what will be the future

regulation and the future energy source

and so and they all need to move

together they I mean the carriers the

energy generators the energy provider

supports the distributors

uh and there yeah I think

speaking to our stakeholders Partners

member states who then negotiate at the

IMO at Angel WTO I think that's one of

the things rather than having blame

games about this moment and why do you

make more money than I

let's think about Lessons Learned let's

think about the real challenge ahead the

energy transaction the decarbonization

and make sure we get this right we don't

have this type of this direction again

yeah

welcome back to this uh energy and and

uh transition in a moment but you

mentioned that

um uh there were Trends and as we are

coming the end of 2022 and we looked at

2023 there's obviously a lot of focus on

what's coming next what's coming at us

over the next 12 months and Beyond

um what what lays ahead what are you

focused on in terms of the trends ahead

uh in the maritime space yeah it's

really

interesting you have all these data sets

which we've since the 1960s that you

have these long-term trends like

the

the average distance traveled per turn

off cargo over the decades has gone up

like iron off from Brazil goes more to

China less to Europe Angie from Trinidad

goes more to Japan the less to the U.S

long longer distances

the last year maybe 21 compared to 20

that's where we have the data for the

first time in many years actually this

went slightly down

the Shelf expenditure on inventory

holding these are the extensional

transport the long term

the share of inventory holding went down

more efficiency more just in time better

trade visitation

last year it went slightly up

the fear of developing countries Imports

including China for decades it's

increased last year it slightly

decreased so

this is data it's hard to it and said no

does this now mean

a change a long-term trend

or is this just a hiccup during the

crisis including the Warner crime

including lockdowns including

supply chain crisis

or will we go back and we will then go

back to the long-term Trend so

I don't know to answer your question but

this is the type of thing we are

monitoring it's beautiful that nowadays

with all the AIS data data on ships like

I know where every field is right now

how fast is going from Air to where so

you have a lot of interesting data also

for trade the geography of trade from

this type type of data but another

specific thing is you ask like looking

ahead

um

and as you say I this particular thing

of the ship sizes and consolidation

shipping concentration process I've

looked at this since 1996 when I was

working at the I'm older than Eckler

um

we have never had such a long period

that the maximum ship size has not

increased further as we have now

it's now since probably before covid we

have 24 000 Tu and they have not gone up

and now the biggest ships container

ships are roughly as big as the biggest

oil tankers and biggest driver you know

so

question is

will be now finally over having said for

decades this is now the biggest it will

not now maybe now we have reached the

biggest now this one you know better

than me you you are you know what you

are ordering I think they are on the

order book up to 28 000 teu or not other

books on the drawing boards but I do

think that we will reach or have reached

the limit and this has always

implications on the further process of

consolidation

and the likelihood that the deer

carriers will resume undercutting each

other because as long as ship sizes went

up

those who could afford it they bought

the biggest trip

they do generated economies of scale

you could offer the cost that you

produced your service at a lower cost

per container

but what did you do with the oil ship

you returned to the owner or you sold it

if it was used so they didn't they're

not script and this led for decades to

an oversupply with which you know a

damage LED for decades to a very low

rates of return

so now we have at the same time

coincidentally unfortunately for anybody

who wants to study causes in history and

natural experiment we have at the same

time the covet crisis supply chain

crisis and probably the plateau or the

ship size so if from now on

the carriers stop undercutting each

other we don't know whether it is

because of some change with the

geography trade in the supply chain or

because we have finally stopped this

huge long-term physics cycle

so does that speak then to an

expectation that perhaps you see an

environment where you can change the

environment we've seen this

um almost uh for several decades long

reduction in in great roads so some

fishes has been realized to maybe a

plateau into maybe even a potential

increase especially when you consider

the additional costs of the energy

transition and all of the other

uncertainties that supply chain is

having to deal with is that is that a

scenario together with a lot of

volatility I think

that over the decades we have seen a

change in the

type of cost and the variable visually

the fixed costs in producing shipping

service

if you have a smaller older ship

you have higher variable costs to

produce the service

you have to pay your seafarers your fuel

your communication

if you have a modern bigger fib

the variable costs are lower like

instead of expensive phone calls you

have almost no cost fixed you have a

flat rate for your communication and so

on and so forth fuel efficiency

but the fixed costs are much higher

so if you translate this in a supply

curve in a production function it means

when when there's enough Supply there's

a lot of competition a lot of owners

offer their container film

and they're still we know this from good

old times when my family had a little

flipping business so Captain Hoffman he

had to pay his seafarers he had to pay

the bank he had to pay his fuel

communication

and but as long as he would pay this he

would Charter his twin Decker at a very

low price then at times there was a lot

of demand not enough ships then it went

up a lot

so this supply curve has become steeper

due to this change variable caused by a

fixed cost

and a steeper supply curve also means

that if there's a shift in demand it

becomes more volatile

so I'd like to explain it with curves

moving from the left to the right but I

hope intuitively this is if if we just

imagine there's a ship owner

who doesn't want to lose money obviously

so

as long as you can pay the

variable cost that's right but at some

point in time he has to pay back his

bank so at some point in time the

average has to go up and then they go up

even further yeah so it's it's more and

we see the data the freight rates the

container Charter rates over the decades

have become more volatile I think this

is one of the reasons it's change from

the variable fixed cost relationship

it's a very good insight and I think you

know if you're if you're a customer or a

buyer though so if it's something you

need to be very much aware of when you

think about how you want to play in a

spot Market or a contract Market to try

and uh hedge or play out some of that

volatility

um just keeping that framework in and if

we think about we're talking earlier

about sustainability and then the

transition to Green fuels how do you see

that playing into that analysis you just

presented with the the cost curves and

so on how does that how does that likely

play out in that framework

yeah we really see a danger there and we

highlighted this and when we launched

our Rivier white and transport our

Secretary General put this in her key

Lessons Learned points

um the this uncertainty about the future

regulation Future Fuels future price of

CO2

makes investors wait I mean it's obvious

well it's difficult to measure what

would be the investment in new ships

Newports new internet if we knew we

could use the same fuel for many more

decades maybe at the same but there's a

lot of anecdotal evidence a lot of we

speak to the at conferences and

stakeholders important a lot of evidence

that investors are waiting and what does

waiting mean it means again my mindset

the supply curve moves to the left it

means

if there's no demand coming back and I'm

we're talking about

many more up to 2050 we are really

talking about the decades to come so

there will be ups and downs Economic

Development and demand and searches and

but if we are all waiting too much and

too long

so I think one of the Lessons Learned

here is

um we really need a predictable ideally

multilateral framework that all

stakeholders

invest and we avoid the repetition of

this what we saw recently this there was

not enough Supply and trade rates went

through the roof yeah

immediately ahead of us we have some

legislation coming in through through

IMO in 2023.

um can you speak to that a little bit

about what that aims to do and what the

impact could be on on the shipping

environment

um yeah it's very important and we work

really closely positively with with the

IMO we have I believe sincerely helped

the IMO process by doing an impact

assessment of the short-term measure so

before the IMO members were willing to

agree on these short-term efforts they

um what do you know what is the economic

impact impact on Maritime Logistics

costs impact on trade impact on GDP and

we did this for every ship in the world

every journey of every shift in the

world then we aggregated this into 11

industry segments every pair of country

and concluded

order of magnitude like

how much Maritime Logistics costs will

go

up like

Plus

two percent depending on which scenario

which leads to a decrease in trade by

0.2 percent quarter magnitude which

leads to a decrease of GDP by 0.02 so

this is just not the exact numbers it's

all in our reports but to get the order

of magnitude and I found this

fascinating overall it means

it's not a lot I feel like feed like

Freight rates went up five-fold now and

and other rates went up 10 forward and

and now we're talking about

two percent if you draw it on the line

and we did this for you I'm more report

like you put the freight rate volatility

and then you put on top of this what

would two percent increase mean and if

you say I don't see it yeah look there's

a green line and you know how they don't

see it but it is not nothing I think

this is important it's not zero and for

us important

um

the uh those who are more negatively

impacted are the least developed

countries in this wild and developing

States so this is for us architect very

important

um and in that sense coming back to to

the what is in the future what may come

out of IMO negotiations

um

we believe there are a lot of advantages

in the price on on covered call it the

internalization of externalities called

a levy called a contribution called an

economic measure Market based measure

but we need to make alternative Fields

competitive that you can only do this by

increasing the price of the traditional

ones and the beauty of this method is it

can generate funds it generates funds

that can be invested in the energy

transition and it can help those least

developed countries more vulnerable more

export dependent the small island States

who are not the culprits of climate

change so they're the ones most

negatively affected by climate change

and I've been to quite a few islands

where you can see the impact they're

most affected it's not their fault and

now they will also be most affected by

climate change litigation that's not

fair so that's why I think this measure

as an economist it's that's where we

have to go it helps have a

predictable clearer future framework not

to discourage investment it makes

alternative Fields competitive

and it generates funds that can actually

be reassigned

to help the energy transition and to

help the most vulnerable yeah I think we

would wholeheartedly agree being the

Leading Edge of investing into renewable

fuels and ships in in the maritime space

I think this is a key a key element that

would would assist that what are the

roadblocks getting us there do you see

that being

achieved in the next few years is it

something that is further off what what

what do you think of the elements

let's not treat ourselves this leads to

higher shipping costs yeah

by how much is a lot or not compared to

what but

it leads to effort because in countries

that depend more on shipping exports

that depend on exporting fresh beef and

don't want this to be frozen beef

because ships have to go slower or

countries that depend on exporting

cherries grapes avocados long distance

or low value Goods iron or long distance

I mean they are worried and and we have

to be realistic that they are rightly

right

now what I honestly think is that by

delaying the decisions

by maintaining the uncertainty

the real impact on freight rates is

worse like delaying the decision makes

it more expensive

delaying the decision we just need to

lead to the need to do more even later

and during the process this uncertainty

leads to not enough investment shift of

the supply curve to the left and even

more increase of freight rates so those

countries who depend on Lower freight

cost are understandably worried

but I sincerely believe it is also in

these countries interest

to to agree on whatever as long as we

have the stability that is one stumbling

block sincere valid interest the other

one is the politics the legislation

there's the oil pollution compensation

from there are some examples where you

have funds but we are talking about a

lot of money here

um

what name do we give it there are

certainly member countries of of the UN

of the IMO who are very reluctant

to

anything that's made like a tax globally

so I think that's another stumbling

block it's a how do you formulate it who

really collect it where would it be

stored who decides what to do with it

how do we call it it's also it's not a

pretext it's a real challenge more for

the lawyers and policy makers and then

different governments may change

political parties in key countries so I

think that's another real stumbling book

oh it's very insightful we certainly

value all of the efforts that you're

putting in to kind of make those

arguments and and get the right

discussions in the right places we focus

quite a bit now on so the supply side

and the slacker yeah yeah can we switch

a bit to the demand curve because it's

the intersection of the two that kind of

gives the picture of the market and

um it happened before Kobe but a lot of

talk about shifting trade patterns have

accelerated during covert and after

covid and you engaged in statistics

earlier so maybe hints at some of that

um how are you thinking about that what

are you seeing in terms of those shifts

what's driving those

um potential shifts and trade packings

from what from what you're seeing yeah

yeah there's been all this talk about

neo4 in French Foreign labels

um

and also this other label

um rather than just in time have just in

case

I don't like either of these

um

let's say the just in time just in case

what is Justin time actually even if you

want to keep a higher stock of inventory

holding as a reserve

you still want to be efficient you still

want to to keep that level at that level

you don't want to to have rubbed it down

if if the crisis catches you when you're

at zero and it still didn't help you at

all to start with a higher stock I mean

it doesn't make sense

uh so you still want to have the most

efficient

just in time delivery you want the

things when you need them

um what I find more important is

diversification that we do see

and this is from your industry you

produce chips cameras cars whatever

you don't want to depend on only very

few supplies I I myself I like

photography and I remember it was a

point in time where Nikon could no

longer produce its cameras because the

one Factory that produced one component

was in Bangkok and there were Flats in

Bangkok and there was a so you may not

want to diversify

so

by the same token the the whole

diversification resilience of trade

demand I think

we see two things

we should see

more diversification

just logically if there is some

elasticity of demand towards the cost of

transport

we will see somewhat lower distances the

classic example always given like United

States imports from China compete with

United States imports from Mexico if

shipping costs go up

Mexico's Fair will somewhat increase

vis-a-vis the Chinese and this we had

also in our model and we did the impact

assessment for the IMO what would higher

Logistics costs mean higher Maritime

invested costs in our model we did see

like the exports from China to the S

would go down a little more than the

exports from Mexico to the US you know

so we it's this is one thing the a bit

slightly for the distance it's a bit

more identification but I do not really

see the more just less just in time or

more warehousing you don't really see it

you were talking about the um

the shift from

um just single source to multi-sourcing

yeah and what's the other side of that

now if you're looking for Logistics

providers to support you do you then

require a different model and sort of

like also the

yeah but I think we will probably see

to be more careful about like two deep

Supply chains now with more risks higher

costs more uncertainty to bit resilience

you don't really want

to have a CTS we had one Asian karmic I

had to recall cars

and they found out the component of the

component of the component that didn't

work

was like the ninth level of the in the

supply chain

so they can no longer control this

and now with higher volatility higher

freight costs the need for more

resilience

you if all these nine steps have to be

shipped

you may not want this you may want to

have I don't know only five or six I

don't know so the Deep Supply chains

they are part of this beautiful

globalized efficiency and

in globalized world and it's it's a lot

of positive things that we all benefit

from

but apart from the diversification

I see also probably some there's a good

reasons not to try to have too deep

Supply chains this I think you raise

this uh you had this phrase in your

report called resilience by Design is

that what you're speaking to hear that

rather than try to impose a resilient

framework on top of a flawed design

system you actually try and redesign it

but all this takes time yeah it takes I

mean all the

also what we saw now with the supply

chain crisis there where people said

we might have had it in any case in a

few years

because investment wasn't catching up

especially in the United States ports

the whole Intermodal system the port

system the working arrangements and

so we had this surge in demand with

stimulus packages

but that same increase in demand might

have come in any case two three four

years later and we might

also have had this congestion but I

don't know it's a bit hypothetical but

all this to the need to plan in time and

and foresee this type of demand and

again we come back to the need for

predictable

framework

otherwise I delay my investments yeah

this predictability visibility

also speaks to technology and Supply

chains and this is the Silver Bullet

that many are looking to to realize

dreams that have been there for many

years decades it must speak to

logisticians that they always thought

about these visible real-time Supply

chains where they can monitor and a bad

run and adjust

is this the moment is technology you

know where we need it to be to

facilitate those seamless end-to-end

physical actionable Supply chains we

have seen a lot of

um

progress during the last two three years

in programs that we have been promoting

and worked on it at Ankita for for

decades we have been promoting single

Windows Advanced routing custom

automation smart ports pre-arrival

processing

e-payments electronic signatures

and many stakeholders were a bit

reluctant you know in public private

sector

Brokers agency no no I prefer this to be

inefficient because then the client

needs to be even more

um so difficult to quantify but I would

say you have like three times more

demand and interest in this over the

last couple of years than the previous

comparable period

and and now I like to say we we have to

lock in the progress made during

lockdown you know so I hope we won't go

back to bad old practices but we have

seen progress in this and you know there

have been of leading initiatives and

I've asked people working this they also

have worked on this for 10 years 20

years and would this also have happened

without covet and Andrei simmer from MSC

told me no it will not have happened

without

accelerated a lot of a lot of things I

mean

um yet despite the technology being

there there are key elements that still

need to come together to data sharing

and in our recent experience with with

tradelines I think it's a very good

example of that so I think there's an

industry maturity on there that's needed

as well to realize in fact I mean the

trade lens I confess I was surprised I I

would say I was disappointed that this

didn't work out we had the very early

stages when it was not even called trade

limits

we had a colleague from

treatments in our actual offices he gave

a briefing it was really interesting

discussion we connected with our custom

automation systems at secuda so I would

have hoped that this crisis would have

motivated even more to get it over the

threshold but apparently it didn't but

then you cannot ask me I have to ask you

what what happened why did it not work

out yeah I think it comes back to this

data sharing issue and I think that

there are other Industries are very

competitive where this this works I

think it's a journey right it's a

maturity that needs to be reached before

you get to that realization of the of

the of the win-win uh of the sharing

data so Technologies could be there a

straight line we're showing it's just

that sort of commercialization of it and

the business model around it yeah this

has been a fantastic conversation

fascinating insightful as ever

um I like to end up on sort of three uh

points if you will and as we're

approaching Christmas perhaps three

wishes on your list for next year what

uh what would they be uh if you uh could

uh make that list okay yeah no dreaming

is free of charge

uh yeah I think the first one we had

discussed came up several times

this necessity to have a price on card I

have an economic measure and

market-based measure to to make

alternative view it's competitive

and at the same time

generate funds that can be used and

invested and have a stable multilateral

preferably not different regions

framework so here I'm not criticizing

the IMO but on the country we have

really sincerely very supportive of the

efforts made by IMO delegates by IMO

Secretariat but I think the more we look

at it and what is happening we have seen

a shift in mindset so my wish list for

Christmas would be let us hopefully

Advance with with these economic

measures in

the second one is the

yeah the the fear of not investing

enough in time which is linked to the

uncertainty we don't have certainty

there's not enough investment and we got

some criticism on on social media

comments

I mean in our latest transfer we said we

need more Investments and then people

said well look at the order book

and look how Freight rates are going

down and look at the poor carriers who

will lose money in two or three years

because there will be too many too big

ships

these are two different things uh there

is the whole Peak cycle situation the

fitting cycle the volatility and yes

things happened as in the past fips were

bought when there was money and ordered

and they take two three four years to be

delivered but we are really think about

the much longer term issue of the

investment in the energy transition that

requires this predictable framework and

it requires Investments on a far bigger

scale so I wanted to clarify this that

I'm not saying that there will not be

enough ships in two years but we will

not have the right trips and enough

infrastructure ships in 10 years from

now if we don't get it right

and The Third Wish For Santa Claus

is the

technology I think I said earlier

[Music]

or maybe I didn't but like technological

progress will never be as slow as today

of course it's not slow it's fast but

it's going to be even faster

and

one lesson learned from another set of

negotiations that took place in Geneva

was at the WTO the World's Trade

Organization negotiations on the trade

facilitation agreement which started in

2004.

concluded in 2013.

at the beginning of the negotiations

there were proposals that said

every country and every Customs

Authority must publish the duties and

rules and forms to fill out on the

internet

of course I mean like obvious

but at that time 2004-2005 there were

least developed countries that said

I don't have the technology

is too expensive I cannot invest and so

on

and these were sincere valid concerns

but already that time

Ankita is advisor to The Negotiator said

technology will advance

don't set the rules now

on today's technology but think of the

future Technologies negotiations are

slower than technological progress yeah

so

um

John Kerry was criticized for saying

that

the Technologies we need to decarbonize

doctor stripping but generally

they don't yet exist

in Gator from I have a lot of respect

sincerely fee criticized to be reduced

for this and I disagree with her I agree

with John Kelly

he cannot

plan for future needs of the energy

transition thinking only of today's

existing technology so there's so much

progress being made so many forecasts

about the capacities of batteries about

the Outreach of electric cars and so we

were always too conservative and again

from my experience with these

negotiations at the WTO

negotiations were slower than

technological progress so dear member

states of the IMO think along those

lines prepare the decarbonization of

shipping thinking about the future

Technologies and let us be optimistic

they will come with

thank you and that's a great way to end

on an optimistic now thanks a lot thank

you

[Music]