从比较优势理论分析：中美为何会爆发贸易战？与鸦片战争有什么相似之处？李永乐老师告诉你

Summary

李永乐先生在视频中讨论了中美贸易战的升级，起源于反倾销调查和反补贴关税，并最终导致美国将中国企业列入抵制名单。李永乐通过贸易视角解释了贸易战的复杂性，介绍了亚当·斯密的绝对优势理论和大卫·李嘉图的比较优势理论。通过这些理论，他解析了中英鸦片战争和当前中美贸易战的相似之处，强调贸易不平衡是引发冲突的根本原因，并呼吁结束贸易战以造福双方。

Takeaways

• 🌍 中美贸易战升级，从反倾销调查到增加反补贴关税，最终将中国企业列入黑名单，引发外交问题。
• 🤔 绝对优势的概念由亚当·斯密在《国富论》中提出，他认为政府不应干预自由市场，无论是在国内还是国际上。
• 📈 通过绝对优势，国家可以通过贸易互惠互利，例如一个国家在茶叶生产上有优势，另一个国家在纺织品生产上有优势。
• 💼 亚当·斯密的绝对优势理论解释了中英之间的鸦片战争，因中国对英国工业品需求不足，导致贸易逆差和白银外流。
• 📚 大卫·李嘉图提出的比较优势理论，解释了即使一个国家在所有生产上都没有绝对优势，贸易仍然可以发生。
• 🌐 比较优势理论通过成本比率来分析，国家可以专注于相对成本较低的产品，进行贸易互利。
• 🇬🇧 英国的《谷物法》因贸易保护措施而引发争议，最终因损害其他经济部门利益而被废除。
• 📊 中美贸易中，美国在高科技和农产品上有比较优势，而中国在玩具和低端制造上有优势。
• 💵 2017年中美贸易逆差为2758亿美元，总贸易额为5837亿美元，贸易顺差比例为47%。
• 🤝 贸易战的根本原因在于贸易不平衡，但贸易不平衡并不等同于不平等，各国应通过增加互惠贸易来实现共同利益。

Q & A

什么是绝对优势？

绝对优势是指一国在生产某种商品时所需要的资源成本低于其他国家。例如，国家A生产茶叶的成本是2单位资源，而国家B则需要10单位资源。

亚当·斯密的经济自由主义理论是什么？

亚当·斯密的经济自由主义理论认为政府不应干预自由市场，无论是国内还是国际市场。在这种情况下，每个国家都会互相受益。

贸易带来的好处是什么？

贸易的好处在于每个国家可以专注于生产其拥有绝对优势的商品，并出口这些商品，同时进口其他国家生产的商品，从而双方都能受益。

什么是比较优势？

比较优势是指即使一个国家在生产所有商品上都没有绝对优势，但由于不同商品生产成本的相对差异，该国家仍然可以在某些商品上具有比较优势。

亚当·斯密如何解释绝对优势的起源？

亚当·斯密解释绝对优势起源于社会劳动分工。例如，农民专注于种植，而裁缝专注于做衣服，这样的分工可以极大地提高生产力并降低成本。

为什么鸦片战争爆发？

鸦片战争的根本原因是中英之间的贸易不平衡。英国需要中国的茶叶和丝绸，但中国对英国的工业产品没有需求，导致贸易逆差。为了解决这个问题，英国开始向中国输入鸦片，从而引发了冲突。

比较优势如何解释贸易的继续？

大卫·李嘉图的比较优势理论解释了即使一个国家在所有商品生产上都没有绝对优势，两个国家之间仍然可以通过专注于生产具有比较优势的商品进行贸易，从而互相受益。

英国《谷物法》的核心内容是什么？

《谷物法》的核心内容是对进口食品和谷物实施贸易限制，目的是保护英国本地农业生产者的利益，但结果却抑制了制造业等其他经济部门的增长。

当前中美贸易战的根本原因是什么？

当前中美贸易战的根本原因是贸易不平衡。美国进口的中国商品总量超过了出口到中国的商品总量，导致美国的贸易逆差过大。

如何解决中美贸易战问题？

解决中美贸易战问题的最佳希望是结束贸易战，因为这对双方都有好处。通过增加美国农产品的进口和降低关税等措施，可以平衡贸易逆差。

Outlines

00:00

📈 贸易战的背景

李永乐老师介绍了中美贸易战的背景，从反倾销调查到增加反补贴关税，再到美国将中国企业列入黑名单。通过亚当·斯密的绝对优势理论，李老师解释了贸易如何带来利益。通过两个国家生产茶叶和纺织品的例子，展示了绝对优势的概念，说明每个国家可以通过专注于其具有绝对优势的产品进行贸易，双方都能从中受益。

05:03

🚢 英中贸易失衡与鸦片战争

李老师讲述了英中贸易的历史，尤其是鸦片战争的背景。由于中国是一个自给自足的农业社会，对英国的工业产品需求甚少，导致英国出现贸易逆差。为了弥补逆差，英国向中国倾销鸦片，导致银子回流英国，最终引发鸦片战争。李老师强调了贸易失衡是战争的根本原因。

10:05

📊 比较优势理论

在讲解大卫·李嘉图的比较优势理论时，李老师通过玩具和计算机的例子说明了即使一个国家在所有产品上都具有绝对优势，贸易仍然是有可能的。通过比较两个国家在玩具和计算机生产上的成本比例，解释了为什么和如何进行贸易，以及如何设定价格，使双方都能从贸易中受益。

15:05

🔍 中美贸易战的现状与解决

李老师分析了中美贸易战的现状，根据2017年的数据，中美之间的贸易不平衡导致美国对中国产生巨额贸易逆差。为了减少逆差，美国要求中国增加对美农业产品的进口，并采取提高关税等措施。李老师指出，贸易不平衡并不意味着不公平，双方都从中受益。他呼吁贸易战尽快结束，以便双方都能获益。

Keywords

💡绝对优势

绝对优势是指一国在生产某种产品时比另一国具有更高的生产效率。亚当·斯密在《国富论》中提出这个概念，认为每个国家应该专注于生产自己具有绝对优势的产品，并通过贸易获得利益。视频中提到，国家A在茶叶生产上具有绝对优势，而国家B在纺织品生产上具有绝对优势。

💡亚当·斯密

亚当·斯密是18世纪英国著名经济学家，他的《国富论》奠定了经济自由主义的基础。斯密认为政府不应干预市场，让市场的“看不见的手”自我调节，国家之间的自由贸易能带来共同利益。视频中引用他的理论来解释绝对优势和贸易的好处。

💡经济自由主义

经济自由主义主张政府应尽量减少对经济活动的干预，支持自由市场经济。亚当·斯密是这一理论的主要倡导者，认为自由市场能够通过“看不见的手”自动调节，达到社会最优。视频中提到斯密的这一思想，解释了为什么自由贸易对各国有利。

💡贸易战

贸易战是指国家间通过提高关税或设置贸易壁垒等手段来限制对方的贸易行为。视频中讲述了中美贸易战的背景和升级过程，并通过经济理论解释其深层原因，如贸易失衡和绝对优势。

💡比较优势

比较优势是指一国即使在所有产品的生产上都处于劣势，但在某些产品的相对劣势较小，仍然可以通过专注于这些产品的生产来获益。大卫·李嘉图提出这一理论，视频中通过玩具和计算机的生产成本对比来解释这个概念。

💡贸易失衡

贸易失衡是指一个国家的进口总量显著超过其出口总量，或反之。视频中提到中美贸易失衡的问题，美国从中国进口大量商品，导致巨额贸易逆差，成为贸易战的导火索之一。

💡鸦片战争

鸦片战争是19世纪中英之间因贸易不平衡而爆发的战争。视频中将鸦片战争与当今中美贸易战进行对比，解释了贸易失衡如何导致冲突。

💡工业革命

工业革命是18世纪中后期在英国开始的一场重大技术变革，极大地提高了生产力。视频中提到工业革命使英国在工业品生产上具有绝对优势，推动了国际贸易的发展。

💡粮食法案

粮食法案是19世纪初英国实施的一系列贸易保护政策，限制粮食进口以保护本国农业。视频中讲述了粮食法案对英国经济的负面影响，以及其最终废除的过程。

💡关税

关税是国家对进口商品征收的税款，用以限制进口或增加财政收入。视频中提到美国提高对中国商品的关税，作为应对贸易失衡的措施之一。

Highlights

美国对中国企业加征反补贴税和反倾销调查升级贸易战。

绝对优势：亚当·斯密在1776年提出的经济学概念，指的是一个国家在某种产品的生产上比其他国家更高效。

自由主义：亚当·斯密主张政府不干涉自由市场，国内外市场都应遵循这一原则。

社会分工导致绝对优势，提高了生产力并降低了成本。

绝对优势法则：国家A生产茶叶的成本为2单位资源，国家B生产茶叶的成本为10单位资源，因此国家A在茶叶生产上具有绝对优势。

中英之间的贸易失衡是鸦片战争的深层原因。

比较优势：大卫·李嘉图提出的理论，即使一个国家在所有产品上都没有绝对优势，它仍然可以通过比较优势进行贸易。

通过比较优势法则，国家A在玩具生产上具有优势，而国家B在电脑生产上具有优势，两国可以互相贸易。

英国1815年颁布谷物法以保护国内农业生产，但后来由于反对声音而废除。

贸易战的根本原因在于贸易不平衡，美国试图通过提高关税来减少贸易逆差。

中美贸易总额为5837亿美元，其中中国的贸易顺差为2758亿美元，占总贸易额的47%。

美国要求中国增加农产品进口以平衡贸易逆差。

希望贸易战早日结束，造福双方。

鸦片战争与当前中美贸易战的相似之处在于贸易不平衡导致的冲突。

中美贸易战升级的原因是美国对中国商品的需求大于中国对美国商品的需求，导致美国贸易逆差增加。

Transcripts

Hi, all. I am Mr. Li Yongle.

The Trade War between China and USA is upgrading. It started from the anti-dumping investigation

to increased countervailing tariff until USA added Chinese enterprises into boycott list

starting the diplomatic issues.

A pupil of mine asked me, “Why does it have to be a trade war?”

Obviously it is a complicated issue

today we try to apply a different perspective into this matter, the perspective of trade.

Well, first of all we have to understand a concept.

It is called Absolute Advantage

What is it, then?

In 1776, there was a great economist in England.

His name is Adam Smith.

The great book he wrote is The Wealth of Nations

In his book, he explained his theories of economy systematically.

He believed in economic liberalism.

What is Liberalism?

It means that government should not interfere in a free market.

Not nationally, nor internationally.

In a nation, there will be an invisible hand

And it will exchange automatically channeling self-interest and labor toward socially desirable ends

Globally, without any interference, every country will be mutually benefitted.

This is his core belief.

Then, how does trade bring benefits?

It is because the Absolute Advantage.

Let’s take a look at this example.

Two countries, A and B respectively.

Each country makes two produces.

The first country produces tea and textiles. So does the second.

However, their efficiency of production varies, and the natural resources vary.

Therefore the cost of produces varies.

Let’s take an insight of the cost.

When country A produces tea, it will consume a cost of 2 units.

It might be the labor.

Or might be the resources, or something else.

When in producing textiles, 20 units of resources will be consumed for 1 unit of produce.

When country B produces tea, 10 units of resources will be consumed for 1 unit of produce.

In textile industry, 5 units of resources will be consumed for 1 unit of produce.

In this circumstance, let’s compare.

First, we take a look at tea. Country A consumes 2 units of resources for 1 unit of tea.

Country B consumes 10 units of resources for 1 unit of tea.

Therefore, in production of tea, country A enjoys advantages.

However, country B does not.

Let’s take a look at textiles. Country A consumes 20 units of resources for 1 unit of produce.

Instead, country B consumes 5 units of resources for the same produce.

Therefore, country B enjoys advantages, but country A doesn’t. Right?

In this case, each country enjoys different advantages.

This is called Absolute Advantages.

With Absolute Advantages, these two countries can start to trade.

How? And it’s obvious.

Each country will only have to export the produce over which they have advantages.

Country A exports its tea to country B.

So, country B imports tea.

Country B has advantages over textiles.

So, it can export its textiles to country A.

Both can be benefitted from doing so.

But what about price? For instance, tea.

The cost for A is two, while it’s 10 for B.

Therefore, when A exports, the price for tea can range from 2 to 10.

As a result, both gain benefits.

Because , for country B to produce tea, the cost will be 10. Right?

For textile, the cost for country B is 5.

So, country B will only have to set the price range from 5 to 20.

Because country B will have profits when price exceed 5.

For country A, its actual cost is 20. Anything below 20 will benefit it, right?

So, in this case, both country gain benefits.

This is the Law of Absolute Advantages.

Then based on this law,

Why does each country enjoy its different absolute advantages?

Adam explained that it was due to social division of labor.

For instance, a farmer should concentrate on farming.

In this field, he has Absolute Advantages.

He trades his crops for clothing from a tailor.

Because he is not supposed to make clothing while farming, is he?

Social division of labor greatly increases productivity

When the productivity increases, the cost decreases.

Therefore, the party concerned will have an absolute advantage.

Then we can trade.

So, Adam Smith holds that

The trade is based on this Law of Absolute Advantages.

Based on this law, we are able to explain

Why the Opium War broke out between China and the Western Allied Forces.

Why?

The trade between China and UK actually existed before the Opium War.

The productivity was quite high in England because of the Industrial Revolution. 尤其是他的工业品 Especially industrial produces.

So England exported its industrial produces to China since England had an absolute advantage.

While China, as an agricultural society, has some absolute advantages as well.

In which field?

It is in the Chinese produces of tea, silk and china.

They are very popular and sell well.

It was the thoughts of Englishmen that both would benefit.

It was the theory of Adam Smith, right?

But later, something weird happened. What was it?

Few Chinese would buy the industrial products from England.

Because in an agricultural society like China, people lived in a self-sufficient economy, Autarky.

The Chinese people didn’t need those clothing England had made with their machines.

So the export of industrial productions to China was not successful.

But, on the contrary, England was in great need for Chinese produces like tea and silk.

So England imported huge quantities of Chinese produces.

What happened next was that huge quantities of silver nuggets flew from England to China.

To China it meant a trade surplus.

To England it was a trade deficit.

The trade surplus at that time amounted to a value that was worth 150,000 kg of silver nuggets.

This was too much for England to take.

England tried to figure out a way to settle the trade deficit.

To stop the flow of precious metals from England to China, Englishmen thought of a solution.

The solution was something that Chinese would fall addicted to.

What was it? Opium, right?

Then lots of opiums were grown in India and Bangladesh.

Then opiums were exported to China for people to consume.

In this way, the silver nuggets flew back to England.

Later soon, the emperor in China and his senior officials realized this fact.

Most of Chinese started to consume opiums, even in the army force.

Therefore, it had to be banned.

This conflict triggered the Opium War.

So, the root cause of Opium War lay deeper.

It was the trade imbalance.

This imbalance resulted the trade surplus for China and trade deficit for other countries.

The war broke out because Englishmen tried to stop the imbalance.

England acted under this theory.

It turned many of its colonies into production bases.

It hoped that each colony would have different absolute advantages.

The England would gain greater benefits from the trades.

Then what would happen if an area is in a place of absolute disadvantages?

It means the productivity is low for all the produces.

Then will it mean that it cannot trade with other countries? Obviously not.

The Law of Comparative Advantages was developed later.

Let’s take a look at England to get an idea of this principle.

In England, the productivity greatly increased after the Industrial Revolution.

And this productivity in England exceeded that of other countries by a great margin.

Someone held that England could be self-sufficient because it had all produces.

Do, we no longer needed to trade with others.

Because other countries had no absolute advantages in any fields.

Under this circumstance, in the year of 1815,

The government of England issued a law called The Corn Laws.

The core of the law was to impose trade restrictions on imported food and grain.

Why did it have to be done to impose trade restrictions on imported food and grain?

It was because after the Industrial Revolution,

England had absolute advantages over industrial produces.

But in terms of agricultural produces, when compared with other countries,

The price of English agricultural produces was quite high.

So the profits of land owners would be damaged.

As a result, it was believed that trade restrictions on imported food and grain would bring benefits.

Therefore, the Corn Laws was issued and enforced.

But it hampered the growth of other British economic sectors, such as manufacturing.

Because the import restrictions on grains would raise food prices of local produces.

It meant workers would have to spend more on pricy food

It also meant capitalists would have to raise the salary for workers.

Meanwhile, when Britain imposed restrictions on agricultural produces of other countries,

The same restrictions could also apply to industrial produces of Britain.

So, it did not favor the capitalists, especially the manufactures.

The Corn Law became the focus of opposition.

Under this circumstance, in the year of 1817,

In 1817,

Britain had David Ricardo, one of the most influential of the classical economists.

After Adam Smith, he was recognized as

The second most influential of the classical economists of Britain.

Adam Smith was called the father of economics.

Because he turned economics into a science.

While David Ricardo was the one with the most achievements in classical economics of Britain

The book he wrote was Principles of Political Economy and Taxation

In this book, he brought up his theory of comparative advantages.

What is a comparative advantage?

Let’s take a look at an example.

Two countries make two produces.

What do they make?

One is toys, the other is computers.

Country A consumes a cost of 20 for 1 unit of toys.

And it consumes a cost of 100 for 1 unit of computers.

While for country B the cost is 10 for toys and 20 for computers.

Let’s apply the Law of Absolute Advantage.

In the making of toys, the cost for A is 20 and for B 10.

So country B has an absolute advantage. Right?

In the making of computers, the cost for A is 100 and for B 20.

Still, country B has an absolute advantage.

In this sense, country B has over-all absolute advantages. Right?

Then does it mean that trade between A and B is out of the question? NO.

Ricardo explains, though it looks like B has absolute advantages over both produces.

But the degree of advantages varies.

This is the cost ratio.

Let’s define it as the ratio of cost of toys and the cost of computers.

Let’s take a look at A.

For A, the cost of toys is 20, computers 100. So the ratio is 1:5

What does this ratio mean?

It means the cost for a computer can also be used for making 5 toys. Right?

Or we can say the cost of a toy is only 1/5 of that of a computer.

Meantime, the ratio of cost for country B is 1/2.

The cost of a computer can be used for making 2 toys.

The cost of a toy is 1/2 of that of a computer.

We will realize that the ratio of cost for A is greater than that of B.

It indicates that though in both countries, toys cost less than computers,

Yet, in country A, they cost much less.

In country A the ratio is only 1/5, while in country B 1/2

So, country A has a comparative advantage in toy making.

Computers are more expensive than toys in both countries. But if we are more specific,

Computers are more costly in country A, because the cost of computers is 5 times of that of toys.

Computers are comparatively cheaper in country B.

So, country B has a comparative advantage over computers.

This is Ricardo’s conclusion. Country A has a comparative advantage over toys.

While country B has a comparative advantage over computers.

In this case, these two countries can start to trade.

How? It is to export produces over which it has a comparative advantage.

Country A has a comparative advantage over toys.

So it exports toys to country B.

Country B has a comparative advantage over computers, so it exports computers to country A.

This will work.

Then how to set the price?

Let’s see. The ratio of cost in country A is 1:5, in country B 1:2.

So as long as the price ranges from 1:2 to 1:5, both countries will benefit.

I will give you an example.

Country B has 100 units of resources.

What will it do with these 100 units?

It will produce 10 toys.

Or 5 computers.

Let’s draw a graph.

The vertical axis stands for toys, while the horizontal axis for computers,

The maximum number of toys is 10.

The maximum number of computers is 5.

There is a line between them. What does this line mean?

It indicates the production of toys increases while the production of computers decreases.

Or vice versa.

Then the trade between them starts.

The price we set is 1:4

Then what happens next?

Country B has a comparative advantage over computers and it produced 5.

After the trade at the agreed price, it will get 20 toys back.

If there is a trade between A and B,

Country B will get 20 toys by trading the computers it produced.

The maximum it can get is 20 toys.

Then the line goes like this.

It means under this circumstance, the line changed.

You can take any point of this line for production estimation.

Now you can take this new line by means of trade.

You enjoy a greater material prosperity, right?

So based on this theory, Ricardo brought up the law of comparative advantage.

He explained why and how the trade would happen anyway between two countries.

It was very popular and welcomed.

In 1845 the famine took place in Ireland, which we mentioned before.

As a result, the Corn Law was abolished.

We are able to explain the ongoing trade war with this theory.

It happened 200 years later than Opium War.

But in fact they are very similar.

The trade between China and USA.

We understand USA has over-all advantages as a developed country.

In most fields, it surpassed China.

USA exports to China its products over which it has comparative advantages

For example, agricultural produces

The cost of agricultural produces is quite low because of the industrialization.

Meanwhile, produces of high-tech, like aircrafts.

It exports to China these products.

At the same time, China also exports its products to USA, for instance, toys.

Most of the toys in American market are made in China.

Besides toys, China also provides low-end manufacturing service.

For instance, to assemble an Iphone.

This is basically the whole process.

Both sides are supposed to benefit in this process.

But again, Americans found the fact that happened to British 200 years ago.

The fact is the trade deficit.

It means the total amounts of imports of Chinese products into USA

Exceeded that from USA into China.

It resulted in the one-way flow of American dollars into China.

What is the accurate figure of this trade balance?

According to the figure from Chinese government, in 2017, the trade balance is 275.8 billion in American dollars.

This trade balance is in favor of China.

The total amount of trade between China and UAS is 583.7 billion in American dollars.

The trade surplus takes a proportion of 47% of the total trade amount.

It means trade surplus to China, however, it is trade deficit to America.

It is too much for Americans to take.

Then USA needs to do something to reduce the deficit.

It insisted that China needed to increase its imports of American agricultural produces.

So USA made complaints to WTO about China’s not using up its import quota of agricultural products.

Meanwhile, USA still has restrictions on exporting its high-tech products to China.

Because they are still confidential.

So other solutions are brought up, like raising the custom duty.

The raised custom duty will limit the trade, therefore balancing the trade deficit.

So the root cause of trade war is the imbalance of trade.

It resembled the Opium War which broke out 200 years ago.

However, imbalance doesn’t necessarily mean inequality, nor being without sense.

Americans paid to get served.

So, the welfare of society improved.

Chinese worked hard to get paid and suffered from pollution. Right?

So the best hope is the end of trade war

It benefits all.

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