How Brexit Caught Logistics Leaders by Surprise
Summary
TLDRSusan Boylen,Gartner物流策略与运营团队的分析师,讨论了脱欧对物流的影响。她指出,尽管英国与欧盟达成了自由贸易协议,但原产地规则增加了复杂性,要求企业对产品进行分类以享受优惠关税。此外,脱欧导致劳动力市场变化,企业需要支付额外费用来吸引欧盟工人。海关清关和检查也成为挑战,导致运输能力紧缩和成本上升。Boylen建议企业访问gov.uk获取指导,并准备应对未来几个阶段的过渡问题。
Takeaways
- 🇪🇺 脱欧后,英国与欧盟之间的自由贸易协议虽然避免了关税问题,但原产地规则的复杂性给许多组织带来了挑战。
- 📦 产品分类和追踪的复杂性意味着一些组织可能更愿意支付关税,而不是处理复杂的原产地规则。
- 🚚 脱欧导致英国的物流行业面临劳工短缺问题,特别是农业和服务业,因为欧盟劳工的引入现在涉及额外费用和复杂的移民程序。
- 💷 成为移民赞助商需要支付高额费用,这对依赖季节性或长期欧盟劳工的物流操作来说是一个重大的经济负担。
- 🛃 海关清关和检查成为脱欧后的一个主要问题,由于文件不正确,许多货物被搁置,导致运输能力和集装箱短缺。
- 📈 由于海关清关的复杂性,欧盟货运代理开始拒绝英国业务,这导致运输成本上升,例如现货运费比2020年第三季度上涨了47%。
- 🚛 英国脱欧导致运输路线的改变,一些公司避开英国大陆桥,选择直接航行到欧洲大陆的港口。
- 🏭 物流基础设施可能受到影响,一些公司考虑将物流活动从英国迁移到欧洲大陆,例如使用比荷卢国家作为新的分销点。
- 🔍 组织应该访问gov.uk网站,以获取有关如何管理产品分类和遵守海关规定的指导和工具。
- ⏳ 脱欧后的过渡期预计将充满挑战,特别是随着三个关键时间节点的临近,这些时间节点标志着对不同类别商品的海关检查和清关要求的变更。
Q & A
脱欧对物流行业的影响主要体现在哪些方面?
-脱欧对物流行业的影响主要体现在关税和税收、移民政策、海关清关和检查、以及物流基础设施的迁移等方面。
脱欧后,英国与欧盟之间的自由贸易协议对物流有何影响?
-尽管自由贸易协议避免了关税问题,但原产地规则变得复杂,需要对产品进行分类以确保享受优惠关税和税收。
为什么一些公司在脱欧后会感到关税和税收上的意外?
-因为脱欧后的自由贸易协议虽然被认为避免了关税问题,但实际上原产地规则要求公司必须正确分类其产品,以确保符合优惠关税的条件,这增加了复杂性。
脱欧后,英国的哪些行业首先面临挑战?
-脱欧后,尤其是食品供应商因为产品易腐,需要快速移动,所以他们首先面临原产地规则的挑战。
脱欧对英国的移民政策有何影响,特别是对物流行业?
-脱欧后,从欧盟引进劳动力需要支付额外费用,并且有一系列的行政程序,这对物流行业尤其具有挑战性,因为他们通常依赖季节性或长期欧盟劳动力。
脱欧后,英国物流行业是否面临劳动力短缺问题?
-是的,脱欧后的行政程序和费用可能会造成物流行业的劳动力短缺,尤其是对于那些依赖欧盟劳动力的公司。
脱欧后,海关清关和检查方面出现了哪些问题?
-脱欧后,由于缺乏正确的海关清关申报和文件,五分之一的货物被搁置,导致运输能力和集装箱供应紧张。
脱欧对运输成本有何影响?
-脱欧导致运输成本上升,例如,与2020年第三季度相比,运输费用上涨了约47%。
公司可以采取哪些措施来减轻脱欧带来的变化影响?
-公司可以访问gov.uk网站获取关于如何管理产品分类和原产地规则的指导和工具,以更好地适应脱欧后的变化。
脱欧是否会导致物流基础设施从英国迁移到欧洲大陆?
-是的,一些公司为了避免跨境交通和脱欧带来的干扰,已经将原本服务于英国的物流基础设施转移到了欧盟的分销中心。
脱欧过渡期结束后,物流行业面临的主要挑战是什么?
-脱欧过渡期结束后,物流行业面临的主要挑战包括适应新的原产地规则、处理劳动力短缺问题、应对海关清关和检查的复杂性以及重新考虑物流网络设计。
Outlines
📊 脱欧对物流影响:关税和税收问题
Susan Boylen,Gartner物流战略与运营团队的分析师,与Rob讨论了脱欧对物流的影响。重点讨论了关税和税收问题,指出尽管脱欧协议被视为自由贸易协议,避免了关税问题,但原产地规则复杂性给许多组织带来了挑战。产品需要根据原产地规则进行分类,以确保符合自由贸易协议中的优惠关税和税收。这对于那些难以分类的产品(如鞋类、汽车、化学产品)尤其困难。一些组织认为追踪和分类货物的成本过高,选择支付关税。
👨🔬 脱欧后移民政策对物流行业的影响
讨论了脱欧后移民政策变化对物流行业的影响,特别是对英国农业和服务业的劳动力来源。脱欧后,从欧盟引进劳动力需要支付额外费用,包括成为移民赞助商的费用以及每位引进人员的费用。这对物流公司来说是一个重大的额外成本,可能导致劳动力短缺。此外,还提到了脱欧后海关清关和检查的问题,包括由于清关文件不正确导致的运输能力紧缩,以及欧盟货运代理拒绝英国业务的情况。
🚚 物流行业如何应对脱欧带来的变化
Susan Boylen和Rob讨论了物流行业如何应对脱欧带来的变化。提到了一些公司正在避免使用英国作为物流基础设施,而是选择将物流转移到欧洲大陆,例如使用Benelux国家作为分销点。一些公司已经决定将原本服务于英国和欧盟的分销中心转移到欧盟,以避免跨境交通带来的干扰。此外,还提到了北爱尔兰的特殊情况,以及脱欧过渡期带来的挑战。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡脱欧
💡物流
💡关税
💡原产地规则
💡移民
💡海关清关
💡运输能力
💡供应链
💡自由贸易协议
💡网络设计
💡运输成本
Highlights
脱欧对物流影响的讨论,Susan Boylen作为Gartner物流战略和运营团队的分析师参与了对话。
脱欧后关税和税收问题成为企业的一大挑战,由于规则的起源问题,许多企业感到意外。
尽管达成了自由贸易协议,但规则的起源导致必须对产品进行分类以确定是否符合优惠关税。
产品的复杂性使得正确分类并符合自由贸易协议中的优惠目标变得困难。
一些组织因为分类成本过高而选择支付关税。
脱欧导致英国不再属于欧盟,对食品供应商尤其是易腐食品供应商造成重大影响。
脱欧后,英国的移民政策变化,对技能工人的引进产生了额外费用和复杂性。
成为移民赞助商需要支付费用,且引进每位欧盟劳工还需支付额外费用。
物流行业可能会因为移民政策的变化而面临劳动力短缺问题。
脱欧导致海关清关和检查成为一大难题,许多货物因文件不全而被搁置。
由于海关清关的复杂性,许多欧盟货运代理拒绝接受英国业务。
脱欧导致运输成本上升,对产品运输和供应链造成干扰。
公司可以采取一些措施来缓解脱欧带来的变化,如利用gov.uk网站提供的指导和工具。
脱欧导致英国和欧盟之间的货物运输量减少,一些公司选择绕行英国。
一些公司为了避免跨境交通和脱欧带来的干扰,正在重新考虑其物流基础设施和网络设计。
脱欧对物流行业的影响是深远的,包括运输成本上升、劳动力短缺和海关清关的复杂性。
Transcripts
[Music]
the impact of brexit on logistics
is the topic of my conversation today
with susan boylen
she is director analyst with the
logistics strategy and operations team
at gartner
hello susan how are you hello rob i'm
good
um i'm really good today thank you
there's several key areas that i want to
explore with you in the few minutes that
we have together with regard to the
impact of brexit
on logistics and trade and the like i
want to start with tariffs and taxes
that's a big one right all of a sudden
there's going to be a big surprise by
companies that were not prepared for
this but
just give me a rough sense of how that's
going to that world is going to change
um the real issue i suppose is
you know when the agreement came to came
to be on the 24th of december
it was hailed as a free trade agreement
um and there was lots
there was palpable size of relief across
you know organizations not just
logistics not just freight forwarding
um but shippers also thinking okay we've
avoided
that nasty thorny issue of tariffs and
trades
unfortunately the rule of origin is an
area that's cut a lot of organizations
out in terms of trades and tariffs and
therefore
you now have to classify your products
by their rules of origin and make sure
that
they qualify for these preferential
tariffs and taxes that have come out as
part of the free trade agreement
the issue here um rob is complexity of
product
okay so if it's a straightforward
quantity and finished goods is fairly
easy
easily handled if you're transforming it
to a certain degree depending on the
components of the product
and it will may or may not qualify for
the print
preferential targets within the free
trade agreement
some are some products are actually
classified
by the gov dot uk website as hard to
classify
items footwear automotive you know
chemical products anything with any kind
of synthesis is going to be very very
difficult
to classify correctly and with
absolute traceability and understanding
where your products have come from
so while organizations were delighted
that the free trade agreement had been
struck
the onion peeling element of this this
breaks a deal or this move now into um
the uk no longer being part of the eu
has cut an awful lot of
particularly food suppliers because they
were particularly perishable food
suppliers
they were hit first and hardest because
they're moving product
um in a swifter way rather than
buffering stock so as
stocks are depleted more and more
organizations are going to be faced with
the rule of origin challenge
so it's certainly not straightforward
it's certainly complex
some organizations have decided that in
tracing
the classification of their goods is far
too costly far too complicated
and what they're better off doing is
just paying the tariff
okay originally thought
companies really have to do their
homework on this particular issue
indeed what about the issue of
immigration as
as it relates to skilled workers another
big change
indeed and particularly this when i'm
speaking to clients has caught an awful
lot of organizations
as well by surprise they're not really
that aware of it so if you're
sourcing labor and particularly within
the agri-said
sector of the uk and services sector of
the uk
if you're sourcing eu labor for
seasonality or for long-term prospects
there are a suite of charges that come
now with facilitating that
so first of all you have to be an
immigration sponsor there's a
fee attached to that i believe it's 1456
pound sterling
just to become an immigrant sponsor
should you want to source your eu
your labor from the eu and a lot of
warehousing and logistics operations do
that
um both in the uk and here now but it's
particularly relevant for the uk
um you're going to pay a thousand pounds
sterling
for each person that you bring in now
post the first of january
for organizations particularly logistics
that are operating on
very tight operational budgets that's a
lot of money
that's a lot of overhead that's a lot of
costs they wouldn't have potentially
factored into their budgets
and that would 1000 pounds sterling only
lasts for the first year
every six months subsequently after that
it's 500 pounds sterling
so again if you're sourcing maybe 9
900 seasonal labor and coming in from
the eu from an aggregate
set an aggregate sector perspective or a
service and sector perspective
that's going to that could be the
tipping point between deciding to go to
your eu labor and the real
piece then is will there be shortages
within the logistics industry yeah i
would think that these are essential
essential workers you need to bring them
in because what are you going to replace
them with
so you've got to go through the whole
process
and this is this is the conundrum and
what you know shocked a lot of
a lot of clients that i've spoken to
about it you know they just weren't
prepared
a for the bureaucracy and if you have
settled workers who are
not uk nationals and are eu originally
sourced
and they must apply for the eu
settlements game by june the 30th or
they can no longer work for you so
there's a lot of bureaucracy there's a
lot of administration rob going on
that organizations are only getting
visibility about
now well okay customs clearance and
inspections
this is another big headache potentially
tell me about that
indeed um and i read an interesting
statistic rob the other day that
one in five um consignments or trailers
is being sidelined because they don't
have the correct customs clearance
declarations
and the correct customs clearance
paperwork um that's
a big um capacity crunch on
transport availability and container
availability
um and i've also read an article
recently that there has been a big
uptick in eu
freight forwarders declining uk business
because of the complications around the
customs clearance piece
around the complications of the team
ones where you have to have the
guarantees for vat
and tariffs so now what we're seeing is
a
real capacity crunch for bringing
product to the uk but the flip side of
that rob
is that there is then coming back to
europe that also shrinks the capacity
and the availability there
so i read a an art there that told me
that
outlined that spot rates were up
something like 47 percent
compared to q3 in 2020.
for transportation transportation
yeah yeah for freight okay so again
not being able to move your product
increase lead times
additional cost it's pure disruption at
the moment unfortunately
are there steps that companies can take
to mitigate the impact of these changes
i'd love to have the silver bullet
answer rob i really would but
there's so much happening on the macro
level that you know organizations
organizations that were dealing with
global trade seem to have handled the
rules of origin peace so much better
because it was part of their data
operations and they under
understood it if you were working in
that eu and trading and transporting
product
in that eu bubble um of which the uk
was a part then it's come as a complete
shock
so again you know some connections it
depends
i do find the gov dot uk website very
very good in terms of giving good
guardrails and good guidance around
you know how to manage your
classifications all of those pieces so
again
go to your gov uk website and you know
access the the many many tools that are
there to try and help you
in terms of the uk the reluctance to go
to the uk from eu freight forwarders and
drivers
drivers as well also rob they don't want
to go because it's two they're sitting
waiting for hours to be processed
through the customs clearance i you know
unless
the um the customs clearance checks
speed up their processes
and make them simpler and you know as
organizations come more
become more used to the customs
clearance piece it may um
it may settle down a little but not in
the immediate future
and then of course we have the two-tier
um piece or the two process piece
where the eu brought in full goods
inspections full customs clearance
checks
the full suite bells and whistles of not
the uk no longer being in the eu
whereas the uk decided to go for a soft
landing approach
and there's three particular windows so
if you're in controlled substances
in that vertical your all of your
customs clearance declarations and
checks and goods inspections came in on
the first of january
for products of plant and origin it's
the first of april after everything else
it's the first of june
so i anticipate bumpy roads ahead
particularly across across those three
timelines
for northern ireland there's got the
march deadline is the period where the
period of grace ends so
again you've got to navigate it as best
you can
because enough a lot of the influencing
factors are macro and they're not
something that is of your doing
as a freight forwarder as a shipper or
as a transport organization
do you think the uk stands to lose some
logistics infrastructure
because of all these problems that we'll
see more of a migration of logistics to
the continent cutting out the uk
altogether
and using the benelux countries for
instance as distribution points of
course they have been all these years
quite strongly will they even profit
more from this change and cut out more
uk
activity there's a couple of pieces
there rob to be honest there's a lot of
um avoidance i believe that um
ferry uh traffic and transport from
ireland to use the uk land bridge um
back and forth has decreased by 47
percent
there's a huge optic and increased root
sailings between
cork rossler and dublin to um rotterdam
lahar and bilbao so they have already
started to
circumvent the uk land bridge which is a
shame because it is the
speediest way to get your product to
mainland europe um
in terms of that piece yes i see an
avoidance of going to the uk
i've spoken to clients who have decided
from their distribution center
perspective
just to have it serve the uk and they
have redistributed whatever you know
there's a lot of distribution
centers that did um support the eu
business and the eu network design
now we see organizations moving
their whatever was being serviced from
the uk to the eu
into their eu distribution centers and
just having uk distribution centers
to facilitate the uk to avoid all of
that cross-border traffic and the
disruption that's coming with us
so yes we're seeing a significant shift
in
terms of where network design
particularly around distribution centers
warehousing and how the transport is
moving
avoiding that uk land bridge at the
moment well
considering how long we went through
this period of transitional pain
as they attempted to negotiate these
brexit exit strategies
i'm kind of surprised that companies are
caught uh so unawares and yet
susan boylan of gartner you've done a
great service to us all by helping us to
wake up and understand what some of the
big considerations
are where companies need to go to get
this information and get in line for the
next three phases of this
of this transition thank you so much
thanks so much for joining me today i
really appreciate your time robert
you're very very welcome pleasure to
speak to you today
take care
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