How China Is Quietly Bracing for Conflict With India | WSJ Coordinates

Summary

China is investing heavily in infrastructure along its disputed border with India, including roads, railways, and border villages, with military implications. A key project is the Sichuan-Tibet Railway, which will connect Chinese military command centers to Tibet, drastically reducing travel time. While China argues the efforts are for economic development, India remains concerned about the potential for rapid military mobilization. The growing air power, dual-use infrastructure, and border population shifts are adding to tensions, as both countries continue to invest in strategic infrastructure despite efforts to ease relations.

Takeaways

• 😀 China is investing over $40 billion in a railway project that will connect Chengdu to Lhasa, reducing travel time from 34 hours to 13 hours.
• 😀 This railway is part of a broader infrastructure development along China's 2,000-mile border with India, which has raised military concerns in India.
• 😀 China argues that its infrastructure development is focused on economic progress, but experts worry about its potential military uses.
• 😀 The Chinese military's Western Theater Command, which spans 2.6 million square miles, includes vast, remote, and previously inaccessible regions.
• 😀 Since the '90s, China has built thousands of miles of roads in Tibet, many near the border, making it more accessible for military and economic activities.
• 😀 Roads built in Tibet are controversial as they could serve dual purposes—both civilian and military—which has led to tensions with India.
• 😀 In 2020, a road construction by India near the border contributed to a deadly clash between Chinese and Indian troops in Ladakh.
• 😀 China's railway projects in Tibet, such as the Sichuan-Tibet Railway, are seen as a way to increase its military reach near disputed border areas.
• 😀 India is working on expanding its railway system, but its infrastructure along the border is much less advanced compared to China's.
• 😀 China has been expanding its airpower in the region, raising concerns for India, which has a numerical air advantage but faces challenges due to China's missile capabilities.
• 😀 China is also increasing its population in border areas, possibly to strengthen its territorial claims, while India has started its own village development programs.
• 😀 Experts worry that China's border villages could serve as military staging posts in future conflicts or as leverage for political negotiations.

Q & A

Why is China investing more than $40 billion in a railway through the Himalayas?

China is building the railway to connect Chengdu in Southwestern China to Lhasa, the capital of the Tibet Autonomous Region. The goal is to reduce travel time from 34 hours to just 13 hours, enhancing both economic and strategic connectivity in the region.

What is the significance of China's border infrastructure development near India?

China's extensive border infrastructure, including roads, heliports, airports, and border villages, is seen as both an economic development initiative and a potential military build-up. This has raised concerns among Indian officials, fearing the infrastructure could be used for military purposes in the event of conflict.

How have Chinese military capabilities along the Indian border evolved over time?

China's ability to mobilize forces on the Indian border has significantly improved. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, experts predicted that China would need about a month to mobilize for war. Now, it is estimated that China could mobilize its forces within five to seven days.

What is the strategic purpose behind the Sichuan-Tibet Railway project?

The Sichuan-Tibet Railway aims to improve connectivity between the headquarters of China's Western Theater Command and Lhasa, making Tibet more accessible for both civilian and military purposes. This development is seen as a way to increase Chinese access to the disputed border with India.

Why are India's infrastructure developments along the border more limited compared to China's?

India's border infrastructure is more limited primarily due to logistical and financial constraints. While China has invested heavily in roads and railways, India's projects are smaller in scale, with ongoing efforts like the Arunachal Frontier Highway and the Sela Pass tunnel.

What are the concerns related to China's air power along the India-China border?

China has significantly advanced its air capabilities, including missile-centric warfare strategies, which pose a concern for India. While India has more air bases and a larger air force, China's ability to deploy sophisticated aircraft and missiles near the border heightens tensions.

How does the population increase in China's border areas impact its territorial claims?

China's population increase in border areas, particularly near Arunachal Pradesh, is part of its strategy to strengthen territorial claims. Experts worry that these villages could serve as military staging posts or be used to solidify China's position in disputed regions.

What is the concept of 'salami-slicing' in China's border policy?

'Salami-slicing' refers to China's approach of making incremental territorial gains too small to provoke significant resistance. This strategy allows China to press its claims over disputed regions slowly and steadily, often under the guise of minor actions.

What role do the new Chinese place names in Arunachal Pradesh play in the ongoing territorial dispute?

China's issuance of new Chinese names for places in Arunachal Pradesh, which it claims as its own territory, is part of its broader strategy to assert control over disputed regions. This move is seen as a diplomatic and symbolic tactic to strengthen its territorial claims.

What are the potential risks associated with the growing infrastructure and military buildup along the India-China border?

The increasing infrastructure development and military buildup along the border create an environment where a small dispute could escalate into a larger conflict. Both countries are improving their military capabilities, which raises the risk of miscalculations or misperceptions that could lead to war, even if neither side desires it.