The Rise of the European Far-Right || Peter Zeihan
Summary
TLDRPeter Z discusses the rise of far-right parties in Europe, attributing it to two main factors. Firstly, Europe's electoral systems, designed post-World War II to be inclusive, allow for a diversity of parties, including those from the extremes. Secondly, demographic changes, particularly in countries like Italy and Germany, have led to an aging population with fewer children, resulting in a more conservative and reactionary political landscape. As the last generation born during more normal times reaches retirement age, the lack of a younger, more liberal generation has contributed to the shift towards conservative politics, impacting economic policies and the future of the Euro.
Takeaways
- 🗳️ European political systems are designed to be inclusive, allowing for a diversity of parties to be represented in government, which can include far-right factions.
- 🌍 The electoral systems in Europe are different from the U.S., favoring proportional representation where parties gain seats in parliament based on their percentage of votes.
- 👶 Demographic changes, particularly in countries like Italy and Spain, have seen a rapid decline in birth rates, leading to an aging population with fewer young people.
- 👴 As the population ages, there is a shift towards more conservative and reactionary politics, as older generations tend to be less liberal and more concerned with immediate economic stability.
- 🇮🇹 Italy is experiencing a significant demographic shift with an aging population, which has implications for its political landscape and the rise of conservative parties.
- 💶 The common currency in Europe, the Euro, was established during a period of economic stability and surplus, but the retirement of the working-age population could pose challenges to its future.
- 🏦 The financial stability of the Euro is linked to the economic health of its member countries, and as the population ages, there may be less financial flexibility to support it.
- 👨🦳 The aging population in Europe, particularly in Germany, could lead to increased concerns about inflation and economic stability as retirees become the majority.
- 🌐 The rise of far-right parties in Europe is not accidental but a result of the electoral system design and demographic changes that have occurred over the past decades.
- 🚂 The speaker suggests that the current political and economic climate in Europe may not be sustainable in the long term, hinting at potential future challenges.
Q & A
What is the main topic discussed in the video script?
-The main topic discussed in the video script is the rise of far-right political parties in Europe and the factors contributing to this trend.
How does the speaker describe the electoral systems in the United States and Europe?
-The speaker describes the U.S. electoral system as a 'first-past-the-post' system with single-member districts, which encourages political groups to appeal to the largest number of individuals. In contrast, European electoral systems, designed post-world wars, are more inclusive, allowing parties to gain seats proportional to their vote share, thus accommodating a wider range of political views.
What is the significance of the speaker mentioning different electoral systems in the context of far-right parties' rise?
-The significance is that the proportional representation system in Europe allows smaller parties, including those with far-right ideologies, to gain parliamentary seats and potentially influence government formation, which might not be as feasible under the U.S. system.
What demographic factors contribute to the rise of conservative politics in Europe according to the script?
-The script suggests that rapid industrialization and urbanization post-World War II, along with significantly reduced birth rates, have led to an aging population. This demographic shift, with fewer economically pragmatic individuals and a lack of liberal youth influence, contributes to more conservative and reactionary politics.
How does the aging population in Europe impact the political landscape?
-The aging population, with fewer young and middle-aged moderates, tends to lean more conservative and reactionary. This demographic change can result in the rise of far-right parties and a shift towards more conservative politics.
What is the role of the common currency in the European economic system?
-The common currency, the Euro, requires a balanced economic system among the member countries. The script suggests that the financial stability and wiggle room during the post-Cold War period were partly due to a large, financially secure, middle-aged population that hadn't yet retired.
Why might the retirement of the middle-aged population pose a challenge for the Euro?
-The retirement of this population reduces the tax base and financial stability that supported the Euro. As these individuals become more concerned about their own economic security in retirement, there may be less support for the currency and potentially more focus on inflation concerns.
What does the speaker suggest about the future of the Euro in the next 10 years?
-The speaker suggests that within the next 10 years, as the working-age population retires, there may be less hope for the Euro due to increased inflation concerns and a reduced financial buffer.
How does the speaker characterize the political climate in Italy in relation to the rise of far-right parties?
-The speaker characterizes Italy as having one of the most advanced cases of far-right party rise, with a significant aging population and a political system that has been influenced by this demographic shift.
What other European countries are mentioned as experiencing similar demographic and political trends as Italy?
-Germany, Portugal, Austria, the Netherlands, and Poland are mentioned as countries that are aging at a similar rate and may experience similar conservative political shifts.
What is the speaker's final message regarding the Euro and the European political climate?
-The speaker's final message is a recommendation to visit Europe and make the most of the Euro while it still exists, implying that the political and economic landscape may change significantly in the coming years.
Outlines
🗳️ European Politics and Electoral Systems
In this paragraph, Peter Z discusses the rise of far-right parties in Europe, attributing it to the continent's electoral systems which are designed to be inclusive and allow for a diversity of political parties, including those from the extremes. He explains that unlike the U.S.'s first-past-the-post system, European systems are proportional, meaning parties gain seats in Parliament based on the percentage of votes they receive. This system is a result of post-WWII efforts to create a more inclusive society and has led to a broader range of political representation. Peter also touches on demographic factors contributing to the shift towards conservative politics, such as the rapid urbanization and industrialization post-WWII leading to a significant drop in birth rates and an aging population.
👴 Aging Population and Its Impact on Politics
The second paragraph delves into the demographic changes in Europe, particularly focusing on the aging population and its effects on political ideologies. Peter Z explains that as the population ages, there is a shift towards more conservative and reactionary politics, especially in countries like Italy and Germany. He points out that the lack of younger generations to balance the views of the older population leads to a more economically pragmatic and conservative approach to governance. Additionally, he discusses the implications of an aging population on the European common currency, suggesting that as the financially stable middle-aged population retires, the economic stability that supported the Euro may falter, potentially leading to challenges for the currency in the coming years.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡European politics
💡Electoral system
💡Farri parties
💡Proportional representation
💡Demographic changes
💡Urbanization and industrialization
💡Replacement rate
💡Social conservatism
💡Common currency
💡Economic development
💡Inflation
Highlights
The speaker, Peter Z, discusses the rise of far-right parties in Europe, attributing it to various factors including different electoral systems and demographic changes.
In the US, a first-past-the-post electoral system encourages political groups to appeal to the largest number of individuals, unlike in Europe.
European electoral systems, designed post-WWII, aim for inclusivity, allowing parties with varying degrees of support to be part of the governing system.
The diversity in European politics includes parties from socialists to neonazis, reflecting a designed electoral system to include fringe groups.
Demographic changes in Europe, particularly a significant drop in birth rates post-WWII, have contributed to an aging population.
The aging population in countries like Italy and Spain has proceeded at a faster rate compared to earlier industrialized nations like Germany and Britain.
A low birth rate over several decades has led to a demographic crisis in Europe, impacting the political landscape.
As the population ages, there is a shift towards more conservative and reactionary politics due to a lack of economically pragmatic and liberal voices.
The speaker predicts a continued rise in conservative and populist politics in Europe due to the aging demographic.
The aging population's focus on immediate concerns like affordable public services over long-term economic development contributes to conservative politics.
The common currency in Europe requires a balanced economic system, which is challenged by the demographic changes and the retirement of the working-age population.
The period from 1990 to 2015 saw a financial surplus due to a large middle-aged population not yet retired, allowing for economic experiments like the common currency.
The retirement of the working-age population that generated capital is predicted to negatively impact the Euro and European economic policies.
The speaker suggests that the next 10 years will see increased inflation concerns in Germany as the working-age population retires.
The speaker ends with a recommendation to visit Europe while the common currency is still viable, hinting at potential future economic instability.
Transcripts
hey everybody Peter Z here coming to you
from Italy's Via de Costa via DEA Costa
excuse me the old Roman Road that went
all the way to Spain uh since I'm
leaving the country tomorrow today we're
going to talk about European politics um
you guys may have noticed that we have
farri parties which based on which
country you're in what your politics are
are anywhere from conservative to
moderate to Nazi you know uh taking
power at least doing very well in any
number of electoral competitions in the
European space uh and in some cases
seizing outright power uh here among
others in
Italy uh there are a couple of reasons
for this the the first one is Almost
Boring and statistical it's because
there's a different electoral system and
a different approach in Europe uh when
the United States recovered from the
Civil War and when the US was created in
the first place there was this idea that
how you Force modernity how you force
moderation is by forcing political
groups to appeal to the largest number
of individuals possible so the United
States has something called a first pass
the post electoral system with single
member districts which is a fancy way of
saying that you vote for a specific
person who's going to represent a
specific group of
people uh that's not how it works in
Europe in Europe most of their electoral
systems were designed in the aftermath
of the world wars in the aftermath of a
series of revolutions and conflicts that
killed millions of people
and so it was perceived as far more
important to instead of catering to the
the vast majority to have a society that
was more inclusive of everybody so
instead of voting for a person you vote
for a party and if that party gets 20%
of the votes they get 20% of the seats
in Parliament and whoever has the most
seats in Parliament then goes on to form
the government uh and in doing this you
allow groups that are maybe not in the
center but can still get a lot of votes
to be part of the governing system and
so most countries in Europe don't have
two parties they've got four or five or
six or 8 or 12 or whatever it happens to
be and so you get a lot more diversity
in the decision-making system a lot more
diversity in the politics of the parties
that make up the system and that means
you're need people from the extremes as
well anywhere from socialists and
communist on the left to reactionaries
and maybe even through neonazis on the
right that's by Design it's not by
accident and so you're always going to
have this element of the election system
uh of the electoral system of the voters
who are willing to support candidates
that other people might find little
distasteful and sometimes they form a
government because they've got enough
support now that's Piece One Piece two
shucker is more
demographic uh when you industrialize
and urbanize you start moving from the
farm into the City and then the farm
kids are free labor in the city kids are
an expense and so as time goes on you
have fewer of them well a good portion
of Europe didn't get serious about the
business of
urbanization and industrialization until
after World War II so whereas the
Germans and the Brits kind of led the
way in that process and their birth rate
has been dropping fairly slowly for a
long period of time in places like Spain
and Italy the process really didn't
start until the latter half of last
century and has proceeded at a much much
much much faster rate well if you got a
birth rate that is less than two
children per women for a decade or two
it's not a big deal but if you do that
for say seven or eight decades all of a
sudden you got a problem and the issue
we have in a lot of Europe is that they
drop below replacement as far back is
the 50s and the 60s and they drop past
1.5 children for woman as far back as
the 70s and the 80s and you play that
forward another 50 years and it's not so
much that uh population reconstitution
is impossible it's been impossible for
decades but we're now at the point that
the last people who were born in normal
times are now turning 60 and 70 and
nowhere is that more advanced than here
in Italy so it's not that demographics
when they turn generate a more
conservative population it's that when
when people retire they get a little
crotchety and we're now seeing people
across Europe in vast numbers age past
that point and they didn't have enough
children to generate a more
economically pragmatic population and
since those people don't exist there was
not another generation born below to be
more liberal so if you remove the
liberality of the youth and the
moderation of the middle-aged folks and
all you're left is with
crottin you get more reactionary
politics electoral systems and
ultimately governments it's furthest
along here in Italy coming up a close
second is Germany and I'm sure there's
no one worried about that and after that
you got places like Portugal Austria the
Netherlands and Poland which are aging
to this in a similar rate but from a
slightly younger base so we are going to
see more and more conservative politics
more and more socially conservative
politics more and more populist politics
moving on because if you are
uh turning 70 this year you're really
not concerned about things like social
rights or Economic Development you want
your train ticket to be a half a Euro
and no more oh yeah that reminds me
having something like the common
currency requires a more balanced
economic system and if you look back
demographically at the period we've been
in the post Cold War period we've gone
through a couple interesting phases
because from roughly 1990 until roughly
2015 we saw these people aging but no
one had really hadit retirement yet
which meant they hadn't become
interested in no change yet in fact if
you've got people who are aged 50 to
65 and who don't have kids their income
is huge they're saving loads of money
for retirement the tax base is massive
and the financial wiggle room in that
sort of system is absolutely huge and
that's the same era when the Europeans
decided that hey let's do the common
currency and if you think back at how
insane that sounded at the time you have
industrialized Germany you've got
technocratic Luxembourg you got post
industrial Portugal that's based
entirely on tourism who would ever think
in a normal system that all of those
systems could be under the same currency
Union but when there is a huge amount of
uh Financial less floating around
because of all these middle AG but not
yet retired people you could try a lot
of things and they did one outcome was
the common currency but now a lot of the
people who were generating all that
Capital to give them wiggle room have
moved into Mass retirement and with them
the hopes for the currency go as well uh
and for those of you who are Finance
nerds out there you think the Germans
were obsessed with inflation before most
of their working age population retired
just wait till they're all retirees cuz
that is something something that happens
within the next 10 years when that goes
down there isn't much hope for the Euro
so you know visit while you can make the
most of it and I'll see you on the other
side of the pond take care
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