Is Altseason CANCELED?

Summary

The video explores the potential for an altcoin (ALT) season in crypto, addressing the role of liquidity, Federal Reserve policies, and global economic factors. The speaker challenges the common belief that quantitative easing (QE) is necessary for an altseason, pointing to past market trends and alternative liquidity sources. Despite the oversupply of low-effort tokens, they argue that quality projects will eventually lead the market, with altseason likely happening later in 2025 or early 2026. The speaker remains optimistic about crypto’s long-term potential, believing it could evolve into a hundred trillion-dollar sector.

Takeaways

• 😀 Altseason is not dependent on Quantitative Easing (QE). Even during periods of quantitative tightening, such as in 2017, altseasons occurred.
• 😀 QE is just one of many liquidity mechanisms. While it can boost liquidity, it is not a necessity for altseasons.
• 😀 The likelihood of QE happening soon is low, as it typically occurs when rates are at zero, and there is no indication that this will happen shortly.
• 😀 Other global liquidity factors, such as a weakening US dollar, lower bond yields, and central banks' easing policies, will likely drive the next altseason.
• 😀 A weaker dollar helps stimulate global liquidity by enabling more flexibility for China and other central banks to ease their policies.
• 😀 Lower bond yields reduce borrowing costs, which increases liquidity in the markets and encourages riskier investments.
• 😀 Despite challenges in 2024, the most likely timing for altseason is late 2025 or early 2026, potentially aligning with the four-year cycle.
• 😀 2025 could see slow and steady market growth, similar to 2024, where markets grow despite a bearish sentiment but without a dramatic bull run.
• 😀 A crypto winter or massive market crash is unlikely in the near future without first experiencing a frothy run-up similar to previous cycles.
• 😀 While many new tokens are low-quality meme coins, there is still a strong core of projects in the market that have real utility, and they will be the focus of altseasons.
• 😀 Crypto's long-term potential remains strong, with the belief that it will eventually become a $100 trillion sector, disrupting traditional finance.

Q & A

What is the speaker's view on the necessity of Quantitative Easing (QE) for an altseason to happen?

The speaker argues that QE is not necessary for an altseason to occur. They point out that in 2017, during a period of quantitative tightening (opposite of QE), the market still experienced one of the best altseasons. The speaker believes that liquidity can flow into the market in many ways, not just through QE.

How does the speaker define the role of QE in the market?

QE is seen as a mechanism that injects liquidity into the market, which can be beneficial, but it's not the only way to achieve market liquidity. The speaker suggests that liquidity can also come from other factors such as a weaker dollar, lower bond yields, and global central bank easing.

What global factors does the speaker believe could contribute to a liquidity boost in the market?

The speaker mentions four key factors: a weaker US dollar, lower bond yields, economic stimulus from China, and global central banks easing. These factors, combined, could create a significant liquidity boost for global markets, including crypto.

What is the expected timeline for the next altseason according to the speaker?

The speaker's base case was that an altseason would occur in February 2025, but they note that the likelihood of this is diminishing. They suggest that the altseason might occur later in 2025, potentially from October to December, stretching into 2026.

What are the possible scenarios for the crypto market in 2025?

The speaker identifies three possible outcomes for 2025: 1) An altseason starting in the second half of 2025, extending into 2026. 2) A slow market crawl with modest gains but ongoing bearish sentiment. 3) A scenario where 2025 is similar to 2024, where markets crawl upwards, but there's a general sense of discomfort among investors.

What does the speaker think about the possibility of a major crypto sell-off or 'crypto winter'?

The speaker believes that a major sell-off like the ones seen in 2018 and 2022 is unlikely to happen soon. They explain that such events typically occur after a frothy market with high leverage, which hasn't occurred yet. Instead, they predict that the market will see gradual gains before any significant downturn.

Why does the speaker think the concern about too many tokens in the market is overstated?

The speaker argues that the concern about too many tokens in the market is misplaced. While many new tokens are meme coins or low-effort projects, the tokens with solid fundamentals and real utility will still attract capital. They compare this to previous cycles where only the stronger projects gained attention and investment.

What types of tokens does the speaker believe will succeed in the upcoming altseason?

The speaker believes that only tokens with real innovation, fundamentals, and utility will succeed in the next altseason. They estimate that there are around 3,000 to 5,000 projects in the market that meet these criteria, with many others being low-effort or vaporware projects.

How does the speaker describe the evolution of altcoins from previous cycles to now?

The speaker describes how the quality of altcoins has improved over time. In 2013, altcoins were mostly low-effort, while in 2017, they were slightly better but still often lacking in real value. By 2021, many of the successful altcoins were far superior, having real use cases, revenue generation, and actual users.

What long-term outlook does the speaker have for the crypto market?

The speaker is optimistic about the long-term future of crypto, predicting that it could eventually become a $100 trillion industry. They believe that crypto is still in its early stages of disruption and innovation, suggesting that the best is yet to come.