Beyond The Box Episode 1: Unpacking changes to global supply chains
Summary
TLDR在这段视频脚本中,讨论了COVID-19如何扰乱全球贸易以及供应链和采购模式正在如何变化。疫情导致消费者需求激增,供应链面临巨大压力。节目邀请了领先的航运专家Lars Jensen和马士基亚太区运营负责人Anders Carlsson,探讨了制造业如何开始从中国转移,以及疫情如何加速了这一趋势。讨论强调了东南亚和印度的基础设施和港口能力与中国市场相比仍有较大差距,并且指出了“中国+1”战略的重要性,即企业不仅仅依赖中国,而是寻找其他亚洲国家作为替代或补充的生产基地。此外,还提到了近岸外包的概念,即企业考虑将部分生产更接近本国市场。整个讨论强调了供应链多样化和风险分散的必要性,以及未来几年东南亚和印度在提升基础设施和港口能力方面的挑战。
Takeaways
- 🌐 **全球贸易受疫情影响**:疫情期间,消费者需求激增,导致供应链超负荷运转,出现了集装箱船只滞留、零售业货架空缺等问题。
- 📈 **需求增长挑战供应链**:美国洛杉矶港和中国宁波港因拥堵和疫情导致等待时间超过六周,供应链面临前所未有的压力。
- 🔄 **供应链策略转变**:67%的零售商和制造商表示,供应链中断改变了他们的原材料采购方式,供应链问题成为全球公司高层关注的焦点。
- 🚢 **航运专家的观点**:Lachinson和Anna Sophie Isel讨论了疫情前已经开始的制造业从中国转移的趋势,以及疫情如何加速了这一发展。
- 🇨🇳 **中国+1战略**:企业开始寻求中国以外的生产地以分散风险,这被称为“中国+1”战略,强调供应链多样化以减少对单一国家的依赖。
- 🏭 **近岸生产**:一些公司考虑将部分生产移至更靠近本土市场的地区,即近岸生产,特别是在疫情初期防护装备短缺时。
- 🚧 **基础设施挑战**:东南亚和印度的港口及内陆基础设施尚未准备好应对大规模生产转移,需要大量投资以避免新的瓶颈问题。
- 📊 **港口能力差距**:中国拥有世界上最大的港口之一,东南亚和印度要增加产量以匹配中国的减少,需要巨大的基础设施和生产能力提升。
- 🚂 **铁路和内陆基础设施**:印度等国家正在改善其物流基础设施,包括铁路连接和港口效率,以支持制造业的增长。
- 🚧 **投资与生态系统**:整个生态系统,包括政府、物流提供商和码头运营商,都需要投资以支持供应链的转变和增长。
- 🌟 **未来展望**:供应链的未来将是一个缓慢而渐进的过程,需要时间来建立基础设施和生产能力,同时解决短期和长期的问题。
Q & A
新冠疫情如何影响了全球贸易?
-新冠疫情导致全球贸易受到严重冲击,出现了集装箱船只滞留、零售业货架空缺等现象。由于消费者需求激增,供应链能力被推向极限,导致供应链和采购模式发生了变化。
疫情期间,哪些产品的需求出现了显著增长?
-疫情期间,电子产品、健身设备、书籍、化妆品、服装、食品杂货以及建筑材料、园艺用品、工具和油漆等产品的需求显著增长。
供应链中断对零售商和制造商产生了哪些影响?
-供应链中断导致零售商和制造商改变了他们的采购方式。67%的零售商和制造商表示,供应链中断已经改变了他们的材料来源方式。
什么是“中国+1”战略?
-“中国+1”战略是指企业不仅仅依赖中国作为唯一的生产地,而是寻找其他国家作为替代或补充的生产地,以降低风险并提高供应链的灵活性。
近岸生产(Near Shoring)是什么?
-近岸生产是指企业将部分生产活动迁移至离本土市场更近的地区,这样做可以减少对远距离供应链的依赖,提高应对突发事件的能力。
东南亚和印度在成为世界工厂方面面临哪些挑战?
-东南亚和印度在成为世界工厂方面面临的挑战包括港口和内陆基础设施不足、劳动力成本上升、环境法规的挑战以及需要大量投资来提升基础设施。
为什么说从中国大规模转移生产基地到其他国家是不现实的?
-因为中国及其邻近国家在过去几十年中一直是世界工厂,拥有完善的基础设施、劳动力市场和法规体系。将生产从中国和亚洲大规模转移回欧洲和美国将是一个成本高昂且耗时的过程。
为什么说供应链的灵活性对于企业来说越来越重要?
-供应链的灵活性可以帮助企业应对突发事件,如疫情导致的供应链中断。通过分散生产基地和采购来源,企业可以降低对单一市场的依赖,从而减少风险。
当前全球供应链面临的最大挑战是什么?
-当前全球供应链面临的最大挑战包括港口基础设施的限制、船舶运力的不平衡、环境法规对航运速度的影响,以及需要提升东南亚和印度的生产能力和港口吞吐量。
为什么说印度在物流基础设施建设方面具有潜力?
-印度在物流基础设施建设方面具有潜力,因为印度政府已经开始采取措施提高港口效率,比如取消了一些监管措施,并且开始提供更多的直达服务。随着这些变化,预计印度将在未来几年内变得更好地连接国内外市场。
企业如何通过投资基础设施来支持供应链的去风险化?
-企业可以通过在关键地区投资建设铁路、公路和其他基础设施来支持供应链的去风险化。这不仅可以提高生产效率,还可以减少对特定地区的依赖,从而提高供应链的整体韧性。
Outlines
🌐 全球贸易的疫情冲击与供应链变革
第一段主要描述了新冠疫情期间全球贸易所面临的挑战,包括集装箱滞留、船舶在世界最大港口外等待数周、零售业货架空缺等问题。这些问题是由于消费者需求激增,供应链能力被推向极限。随着疫情成为过去,本段讨论了全球贸易的永久变化和解决模式的转变,特别关注了东南亚和中国,即世界工厂的变化。
📈 供应链中断与采购模式的转变
第二段强调了供应链中断如何成为全球公司高层关注的焦点,以及贸易壁垒和地缘政治紧张如何加速了供应链多样化的趋势。讨论了制造成本上升、寻找替代生产地的成本角度,以及中美贸易紧张关系对供应链决策的影响。此外,还提到了“中国+1”战略,即企业不仅仅依赖中国,而是寻找其他亚洲国家的替代生产地以分散风险。
🚢 港口基础设施与航运业的挑战
第三段深入探讨了将生产从中国转移到其他国家所面临的物流挑战,特别是港口和内陆基础设施的局限性。讨论了东南亚国家在吸引制造业方面的潜力和挑战,以及这些国家在港口基础设施和物流能力方面与中国的差距。同时,也提到了航运公司面临的挑战,包括船舶老化、环境法规对航运速度的影响,以及对小型高效船舶的需求。
🔄 供应链的未来趋势与投资
第四段讨论了供应链的未来趋势,包括印度在物流基础设施建设方面的积极进展,以及直接服务的增加。强调了整个生态系统,包括政府、物流提供商和码头运营商,需要共同投资以支持供应链的扩张。同时,也提到了近岸外包的概念,以及物流公司可能需要在政府介入之前自行投资基础设施。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡全球贸易
💡供应链
💡COVID-19
💡中国+1
💡近岸外包
💡港口拥堵
💡供应链风险管理
💡东南亚
💡物流基础设施
💡环境法规
💡直接服务
Highlights
新冠疫情导致全球贸易受到严重冲击,供应链和采购模式发生了变化。
疫情期间,消费者需求激增,导致供应链超负荷运转。
疫情后,全球贸易的恢复带来了对供应链安全性和稳定性的新思考。
东南亚和中国作为世界工厂,正在经历供应链和物流的变化。
疫情导致全球供应链面临前所未有的压力,迫使行业重新考虑风险管理。
67%的零售商和制造商表示,供应链中断改变了他们的物资采购方式。
中美贸易战和疫情推动了供应链多样化的趋势,促使企业寻找替代中国的生产基地。
中国加一(China plus one)策略成为企业降低供应链风险的关键。
近岸化(near-shoring)作为一种生产策略,在疫情期间受到关注。
东南亚国家在基础设施和劳动力市场方面面临挑战,需要提升以吸引更多生产。
供应链的转移不仅是成本驱动,也与人口统计学有关,需要找到合适的劳动力。
航运公司面临的挑战是如何在不造成新的瓶颈的情况下,将生产从中国转移到其他国家。
尽管东南亚和印度有潜力,但在港口和内陆基础设施方面与中国相比仍有差距。
供应链的转移将是一个缓慢而渐进的过程,需要时间和大量投资。
未来12至24个月内,港口基础设施和船队构成可能会成为供应链面临的主要问题。
小型船舶的订单量增加,这可能有助于解决东南亚港口的船舶进入问题。
印度和其他东南亚国家的基础设施建设正在逐步改善,以支持物流和制造业的发展。
企业正在努力降低供应链风险,避免疫情导致的空货架和库存短缺的情况重演。
中国加一策略正在实施中,企业在寻求更灵活的供应链设置。
Transcripts
foreign
[Music]
s stranded containers
ships waiting several weeks for slots
outside the world's biggest ports and
empty shelves in the retail business
this was the scenario in global trade
during the pandemic when record consumer
demand overwhelms supply chain capacity
and pushed them beyond their limits
now with covid-19 almost a distant
memory we are in the aftermath of the
disruption That Shook global trade and
changed the way we think of our supply
chains and security of supply
but what permanent changes and shifts in
solving patterns are happening right now
this episode examines the changes in
Southeast Asia and China commonly known
as the world's Factory
[Music]
this is beyond the Box integrated
Logistics from the inside out
[Music]
welcome to the first episode of Beyond
The Box my name is great Cecilia Ross
and my name is Jonathan Williams
together with mass colleagues and
external industry experts we hope to
provide as many of you who'd ever bother
listening to a supply chain podcast with
just the right amount of interesting
topics and Industry insight
realistically we'll probably also
provide you with wasteful minutes of
Jonathan and I talking nonsense I will
without a doubt accidentally swear and
go down a path of hopeless banter and
I'm already on one now so you want to
save me what are we talking about today
I will definitely try I mean today's
topic is how covid-19 disrupted global
trade and how the supply chains and
sourcing patterns are changing as we
speak right now so to help us understand
this we've spoken to Leading shipping
expert lachinson he is the founder and
partner in Vespucci Maritime and of
course Anna Sophie Isel and Carson she's
head of operations for Asia Pacific here
in Moscow but before we talk integrated
Logistics now post pandemic let's
perhaps just touch upon why or how it
changed I mean when everybody else was
working from home or struggling to keep
busy or business afloat even this
industry was booming to an extent where
it at times actually couldn't keep up
and that might make a person or two
wonder why definitely I wasn't in the
industry back then but my brothers were
and are and I remember them telling me
how crazy the container market and
prices were
um and my annoying little sister
responds was why because we're all
buying TVs and fitness equipment turns
out yes
I read that in Denmark the sale of
electronics went up with 60 in 2020
compared to 2019 and in the US TVs alone
went up 56 it's absolutely crazy numbers
and I remember during the first lockdown
I also went uh bunkers buying stuff
online I mean the most notable being a
Lego mode model of Old Trafford the home
ground of my favorite football team man
united I even bought a monthly
subscription of craft beer delivered
right to my front door and to the much
enjoyment of my wife I have to say
um I just love how you always get you
know you always find a way to sneak
football and be in when we when we talk
you want to tell them yeah you know you
know how it is with me and what about
you good ugh I'm so basic
um and by that I mean I did what
everybody else did
um like General spending Rose by more
than 20 in 2020 particularly on books
Cosmetics clothing and groceries 26 on
building materials garden stuff tools
paint and so on yes I did a little bit
of research
um and I was without a doubt Bob the
Builder by day Luxury Spa meets book
club by night my back was out yeah but
my face looked 25. let's move on to what
it's really about this at this episode
we've now established the fundamentals
and buy more stuff ship more stuff
exactly so let's take it up a notch
so much stuff that the supply chain
comes under severe pressure and
potentially eventually breaks
[Music]
what a cliffhanger
but the increase in demand did challenge
the supply chain at a point there'd be
more than six weeks of waiting time
outside the Port of Los Angeles in the
US and in Ningbo China due to congestion
issues and covet outbreaks among truck
drivers and Port workers
berskine writers have created a white
paper discussing a generational shift in
sourcing strategies with quantitative
data around trends one interesting fact
that I will highlight here was that 67
percent of retailers and manufacturers
say that supply chain disruptions have
changed the way they Source materials it
is fair to say that the supply chains
have moved into a c-suit matter in all
companies across the world yeah and it
really picked up pace when the U.S and
China started imposing terrorists on
each other um a handful of years ago if
you think about it that's now six years
straight with disruptions trade barriers
in the Asia Pacific region a pandemic A
Worn European soil and economic
uncertainty for many consumers with the
soaring inflation in the U.S and Europe
what a time to be alive eh companies
were already starting to produce and
ship from different hubs to spread their
risk before the covet 19. but in enough
with the past let's look to the Future
and find out how years of disruptions
have changed the industry or should I
say the mindset of the industry
Beyond The Box met with two experts on
supply chain patterns last Jensen
founder and partner at Vespucci Maritime
and nswank Carlson who's the head of
operations in the asia-pacific region at
Mass the pair discussed how moving parts
of manufacturing out of China had
already begun before covid-19 and how
the pandemic impacted that development I
think in many ways it's just accelerated
a trend that was already there I mean if
you look at over the last 10 years or so
manufacturing costs in China has
increased significantly
which have made companies who probably
predominantly produce in China look for
Alternatives from a cost angle
and it's clear over the last couple of
years even before the pandemic there are
trade tensions were starting right
between especially Asia and and or China
and the US which accelerated it and even
more so than during the pandemic I think
China plus one were obviously shipping
in and out of China has been has been at
times tested quite significantly has
become a very large thing but I actually
think that China plus one is what we all
talk about
but what the pandemic I think taught a
lot of companies was that it's actually
about de-risking Supply change so
um I would argue that that's also
something called your plus one strategy
or even an America's plus one strategy
if you're only located in one place so
this is about sourcing patterns and
trying to de-risk that you're not
dependent on one organ or one sourcing
country simply because yeah the pandemic
taught us in in bad ways that that can
be very risky first of all China plus
one it's less like a wedding invitation
and more term for countries bordering to
China or in near proximity exactly and
this is why we're currently seeing an
enhanced focus on the potential and
pitfalls of countries such as Vietnam
India Bangladesh and China yeah but why
aren't we just using the term I don't
know Asia I mean I suppose in many ways
we could but we also have to bear in
mind that some companies in Europe and
the US are considering moving part of
their production even closer to the home
markets also known as near Shoring
so this was especially a Hot Topic
during the first lockdown when we lack
protective equipment such as hand
sanitizers mask I don't know if you
remember
uh it's a distant memory yeah I mean I
think for me personally it took like a
month before I got some hand sanitizer
it was really frustrating anyways since
then the issues with near Shoring has
pretty much stopped the idea of rolling
back production from China and Asia to
Europe and the US I mean China and its
neighboring countries have been the
world Factory for the past of two or
three decades which means that the
infrastructure labor market and
legislation have worked around this I
mean it would be an extremely costly and
long-lasting process to turn it all back
now so let's hear how La Jensen
continues this discussion I'm very much
along the same lines part of it is cost
driven part of it is down to demography
where do you find the labor force
necessary so the pandemic probably
stopped that for a while while everybody
was finding out and trying to find their
feet how do we deal with all the
pandemic disruptions
now the challenge faced by the shippers
is going to be slightly different
because you can't have a stampede out of
China that is a clear limit as to how
rapidly that can go but the other thing
is and that's what I've been advising a
lot of shippers on if you move some of
your production away from China to say
India or Southeast Asia
look carefully at where you move it to
because the port and hinderland
infrastructure in the rest of Asia is
not yet Geared for this so unless you
want to run into a new bottleneck issue
don't just look at where can you get
cheap labor force but where will you
have access to Port infrastructure
Logistics infrastructure that is not
constrained say something like Cambodia
there it's a very very big problem where
the road system is very very limited
um Vietnam and India it might be a
little better but it's not a lot better
so again if you compare to a China then
it just has a very very long way to go
and as you as you will see more
production move there it will as it
stands right now you know there's
there's later risks of of congestion
meaning again you know larger risks of
disruptions to to supply chains
[Music]
okay so companies have been talking
about this for a decade right
and now the companies are starting to
really act on it it's Dawning on them
how extremely competitive the
infrastructure and capacity in China is
and how much work still needs to be done
elsewhere in the region to even begin to
match China our two experts also
discussed exactly how big a task that is
and how much South and Southeast Asia
are still lacking in order to take over
parts of the manufacturing this isn't
something that's going to happen over a
two to three year period this will be a
slow gradual move simply because it's
not possible so seven out of the ten
largest ports in the world they are on
the east coast of China and if China was
to reduce output by 10 southeast Asia
including India would have to increase
by a hundred so it's it it's it's
something that will take quite a long
time both in terms of actually
production capabilities but much more
around the ports right so I agree very
much that customers who are looking at
this they are looking very much at what
is actually the the infrastructure
around it and I would say that the
in the years to come I think that's the
biggest question how much can you
actually ramp up investments in in
Southeast Asia and in in India to be
able to support this additional output
terminal capacity especially is
something that I have a question mark
around in the in the neural or on medium
term I think we need to distinguish a
bit between what are near-term issues
being the next 12 to 24 months and what
are issues when you get further Beyond
in the next 12 to 24 months one of the
issues you're going to come up against
is not just constraints in the port
infrastructure but we also have a
relatively lopsided Fleet where a lot of
the small vessels that will be needed in
Southeast Asia for feedering purposes
they also tend to be very old vessels
they're the ones that some of them are
not going to be scrapped some of them
are going to have to slow steam because
of a lot of the new environmental
regulations and yes the industry has a
massive order book but that's lopsided
towards the big vessels that's not going
to help so there might be in the very
short term a shortage when it comes to
specifically to the feeder segment
slightly longer term I expect we will
see more new small efficient vessels be
ordered but they're not going to be
delivered until 25 or 26. on top of that
if I can just add to last what you said
before this is not about the hindoland
but it's more about the feeder
appointment so a lot of customers today
they will say that they prefer direct
products so China today right has the
most number of Direct Services calls in
and out
um and SS that will simply not be
possible in in especially southeast Asia
but that actually is speaking from a
carrier angle is a very exciting
opportunity when you work in the
delivery on operations as I do because
it's all about figuring out how we make
Trend shipment and non-issue for our
customers and to me to be able to
support the market that's shifting as
what we're seeing right now that will
actually be the challenge for the
carriers how do you make Trend shipment
and non-event
foreign
so I actually read an article in Danish
newspaper burst and I think just last
week it tapped into what our experts are
talking about that the dominant vessels
being ordered are the ones transporting
between 12 000 and 17 000 containers in
other words not the biggest ones this so
um ships can enter more Harbors in
Southeast Asia yeah I mean we're in a
large scale moving away from the mega
vessels also known as the Triple E class
that the shipping industry ordered in
the Years leading up to the financial
crisis yeah but still I just feel like
buying smaller ships can't be the only
solution I mean no definitely not we
live in a complex world and an
ever-changing industry so let's hear
from our experts one more time you could
make the case and say let's take an
example India I mean India has enormous
growth potential but is held back by a
lack of good hinderland infrastructure
and the easiest thing in the world would
be to make the case it's in the Indian
government's own self-interest to build
this out the problem is if you want to
wait for that you you might wait for a
very very long time that's where it
might be in the self-interest of a lot
of the logistics providers out there to
put in the investment capital and not
wait for the government to step in yeah
I fully agree to that but I actually
think it's it's a little bit of
everything there is a governmental role
in this there's definitely some for the
the logistics and that's definitely
something for uh terminal operators as
well so I actually think it's the entire
ecosystem that that will be required to
make investments to uh to to support
this and one thing that's also maybe
important to note I mean I think it's
worth to be very optimistic in terms of
India's
how India is building out their their
infrastructure when it comes to
Logistics I mean they abolish the
capitals regulation a few years ago they
are beginning to make their ports more
efficient we are beginning to see now
some Direct Services go into main points
in India so I think you're going to see
in India that becomes much better
connected in the coming years not just
with feedering but also Direct Services
with that added efficiency you will also
get an increased willingness to invest
more in the hinterland infrastructure
also from Indian companies themselves
that will very quickly find it becomes
expensive to build and operate
manufacturing plants close to the ports
they might want to move further Inland
to also draw on the labor force in there
I suppose that is truly integrated
Logistics if companies start to build
railroads and general infrastructure in
countries like Cambodia and such do you
think that will happen
it's actually already happening right
well I mean I do know that the APM
terminal pipav in India received the
First full block train last year and in
general it's pretty well connected to
the Northwest hinderland by rail it was
also the first port in India to receive
double stacked container trains back in
2006 but is it enough I mean it's really
fascinating stuff and I think only time
will tell but I mean that's definitely
the development being discussed these
days which is highlighted by Leading
shipping expert La Jensen founder and
partner in Vespucci Maritime and
Anderson Carlson head of operations for
Asia Pacific in mosque
so what I gather from this episode is
that we are seeing a shift from having
all production sourced in one country to
bought a more flexible setup
in other words companies are working on
de-risking their supply chains to
prevent a repeat of the scenario during
the pandemic with empty shelves and
stocks
whilst the idea of near sharing has
faded like we saw in the beginning of
the pandemic China plus one is very much
alive and happening as we speak all
right this was the first episode of
Beyond The Box spot we're already
working on the next episode so do
subscribe on your favorite podcast
platform Spotify Google Apple whatever
rocks your boat we greatly appreciate it
and with that thanks so much for
listening are we done already we are
done already yeah
time flies I guess yeah you just have to
state your name now and then people can
get on with their lives yeah sorry about
that my name is Jonathan greenlassen and
I'm good Cecilia Ross it's been a
pleasure also thank you to our colleague
Anderson who was our reporting the field
for this episode and last but not least
our producer modern Butler
[Music]
thank you
[Music]
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