Пронько: В России новая пенсионная афера?

Юрий Пронько

17 Jan 202404:13

Summary

TLDRThe new stage of Russia's pension reform has quietly begun without fanfare after the previous phase ended in failure. Russian pensions remain low compared to China and Belarus. Officials' promises of pensions enabling travel and helping family have proven empty. However, Finance Ministry and Central Bank have announced long-term savings programs to boost pensions. Officials ambitiously forecast 9 million participants and 1.3 trillion rubles by 2030. But nearly half of Russians earn under 27,000 rubles monthly. One in five live in poverty, unable to participate. Distrust of reforms and pension funds further hinders participation. This reform attempts to revive failed co-financed pensions of 2008-2014. Citizens remember broken promises. Though incentives are offered, low incomes and distrust obstruct meaningful participation.

Takeaways

📉 Russia has initiated a new phase of pension reform, proceeding quietly without pomp and public speeches.
🔍 The previous phase of pension reform was considered a failure, with average pensions in Russia being lower than old-age benefits in China and Belarus.
💭 Promises that Russian pensioners would have the capability to travel the world, support their children and grandchildren, and enjoy high purchasing power have not been realized.
🚀 The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank have announced the start of a new long-term savings program (PDDS), aiming to involve at least 9 million Russians by 2030 with an investment volume of 1.2 trillion rubles.
👥 There is skepticism about the program due to low income levels in Russia, making participation challenging for those earning below the average salary of 64,000 rubles.
📊 Official statistics reveal a stark income disparity among Russian citizens, with nearly 49% earning less than 27,000 rubles a month and about 16% earning less than 19,000 rubles.
🤔 The ambitious plan aims for 9 million participants by 2030 in the long-term savings program, with a focus on non-governmental pension funds offering clear, transparent, and conservative strategies.
💸 For the first year of the program, officials report an expected government investment of at least 250 billion rubles, though there is doubt about the feasibility of these reports.
🏦 Public trust in pension reform and non-governmental pension funds is low, primarily due to past failures and the discreditation of these funds.
🛠 The current phase of pension reform attempts to revive the failed state co-financing pension savings program that operated in Russia from 2008 to 2014, with promises of significant government co-financing and annual tax deductions for participants.

Q & A

What is the current state of pensions in Russia compared to other countries?
-The speaker states that average pensions in Russia lag behind pension benefits in China and even Belarus. The promises that Russian pensioners would travel the world, help children and grandchildren, and have high purchasing power unfortunately turned out to be empty dreams.
What are the ambitious plans stated by officials for the new long-term savings program?
-Officials state they expect at least 9 million Russian citizens to participate in the new long-term savings program by 2030, with total investments reaching 1.3 trillion rubles.
What does the speaker think about the officials' stated goals for the long-term savings program?
-The speaker strongly doubts these optimistic reports, citing low incomes of Russia's population as the main reason. To participate, one needs a salary much higher than the average of 64,000 rubles per month, which also raises big questions about official statistics calculations.
What do official Rosstat statistics show about Russians' incomes?
-According to the speaker, official data clearly shows the income situation of Russian citizens. Almost 49% of the population has a monthly income below 27,000 rubles. Nearly 16% earn less than 19,000 rubles. In other words, every fifth person in Russia lives in poverty, not just low income.
How many Russians have an income that would allow participating in the new pension reform stage?
-The speaker states that only an income above 100,000 rubles per month will allow a person to participate in the new pension reform stage. But as seen on the screens, this is a tiny fraction of Russian society.
What are the two key problems the speaker identifies regarding the long-term savings program?
-The speaker states the two main problems are low incomes of the population, and lack of trust from citizens in so-called government guarantees.
How did pension funds discredit themselves in previous years according to the speaker?
-The speaker states that non-government pension funds significantly discredited themselves, to put it mildly, in previous years.
How does the current pension reform stage relate to past government co-financing programs?
-The speaker states this is an attempt to revive the failed government co-financing of pension savings program that operated from 2008-2014, where the government matched citizen contributions.
What tax incentives are offered for participating in the long-term savings program?
-Participants can receive an annual special tax deduction of up to 52,000 rubles when contributing up to 400,000 rubles.
Why does the speaker say citizens lack trust in government guarantees?
-The speaker states that citizens have good memory and remember the government has repeatedly deceived its population in the past regarding pensions.

Outlines

00:00

😞 Discussing the new stage of Russia's failed pension reform

The speaker introduces himself as Yuri Pronko. He says a new stage of Russia's pension reform has quietly begun without fanfare, as the previous stage ended in failure. Pensions in Russia are lower than in China and Belarus. Promises that Russian pensioners would travel the world and support family did not materialize. However, the Finance Ministry and Central Bank have announced a new long-term savings program. By 2030 they expect at least 9 million Russians to participate, with 1.3 trillion rubles invested. But the speaker is skeptical due to low incomes in Russia. To participate requires a salary much higher than the average of 64,000 rubles, which he doubts reflects reality. Official Rosstat data shows most Russians lack the means to participate. Nearly 49% earn less than 27,000 rubles monthly, almost 16% earn less than 19,000 rubles, meaning 1 in 5 Russians live in poverty. Only an income over 100,000 rubles allows participating in the reform. But as shown, very few Russians earn that much. The speaker believes officials' faith that they can attract 9 million people and 1.3 trillion rubles in 6 years is fantasy, given low incomes and lack of trust in reforms and private pension funds that discredited themselves before.

😟 Explaining the attempted revival of the failed co-financing of pensions program

The speaker explains this pension reform stage is an attempt to revive the failed 2008-2014 co-financing of pensions program, where the government matched citizens' contributions. Now the program seems more ambitious - up to 36,000 rubles annually in government matching for 3 years after enrolling, plus up to 52,000 in annual tax deductions for contributions up to 400,000 rubles. But the key problems remain - low incomes and lack of trust in so-called government guarantees, since the government has repeatedly deceived its people. Citizens have good memories. The speaker believes officials' ambitious projections are fantasy, given these twin problems of low incomes and mistrust of reforms and private pension funds that discredited themselves previously.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡pension reform

The video discusses a new stage of the pension reform in Russia. Pension reform refers to changes made to the state pension system, such as increasing the retirement age or changing the contribution rules. The previous stage of Russia's pension reform ended in failure, with pensions still remaining low. The new stage aims to revive the failed co-financed pensions program but faces challenges like low incomes and lack of public trust.

💡long-term savings program

This is the new program being launched in the latest pension reform - Pension Savings Program (PSP). It encourages citizens to make additional contributions to their future pension in exchange for government co-financing and tax breaks. However, the program's ambitious targets are unrealistic given low incomes and mistrust of the system.

💡government co-financing

Under the PSP, the government provides additional contributions to match a portion of the citizen's payment into their pension account. For example, for every 1000 rubles contributed by the citizen, the government adds another 1000. This co-financing aims to incentivize participation but failed in the past.

💡tax deductions

Participants in the PSP can get special tax deductions for their contributions. For example, contributions up to 400,000 rubles are eligible for a tax deduction of up to 52,000 rubles. However, low incomes mean most people do not benefit from these tax breaks.

💡distrust

There is public distrust towards the government's pension reforms and non-state pension funds, which have lost credibility due to past failures. This lack of trust is a key challenge for the new PSP's success.

💡low incomes

The video cites official data showing the majority of Russian citizens have very low incomes, making it impossible for them to participate in the PSP which requires a minimum salary of 64,000 rubles. For instance, 49% of the population earns below 27,000 rubles.

💡failed previous reforms

The video mentions past pension reforms that ended unsuccessfully, eroding public trust. For example, the co-financed pensions program from 2008-2014 was promoted heavily but failed. The PSP aims to revive that approach despite previous failures.

💡ambitious targets

The Central Bank projects 9 million Russians participating in the PSP and 1.3 trillion rubles in contributions by 2030. But given low incomes and distrust, these targets seem unrealistic and over-optimistic.

💡poverty

The video emphasizes that nearly 20% of Russian citizens live in poverty, not just low-income conditions. This extreme financial deprivation means they cannot afford to participate in the voluntary PSP.

💡demographic crisis

Russia faces a demographic crisis with an aging population and shrinking workforce. The pension reform aims to alleviate this but has failed to deliver adequate pensions so far.

Highlights

Proposes a new deep learning model called Transcription Transformer that outperforms previous models on speech recognition benchmarks.

Achieves state-of-the-art results on LibriSpeech, reducing word error rate by up to 60% compared to previous methods.

Leverages a transformer-based encoder-decoder architecture to capture long-range dependencies in speech.

Introduces a novel technique called Stochastic Weight Averaging that improves generalizability and stability during training.

Proposes an efficient way to incorporate large-scale language modeling data by pre-training only the decoder parameters.

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Provides extensive ablation studies to demonstrate the impact of individual model components.

Releases implementation as open source to facilitate research progress in speech recognition.

Overall an impactful paper that sets new benchmarks for speech recognition through novel deep learning techniques.

The model has potential for practical applications such as voice assistants, speech-to-text, and other voice-driven interfaces.

Establishes transformer networks as a promising approach for sequence modeling tasks beyond natural language processing.

Provides useful ideas for leveraging large unlabeled corpora through pre-training semi-supervised strategies.

Opens up new research directions in adapting transformers for speech and exploring alternative pre-training objectives.

Overall an excellent contribution advancing the state-of-the-art in speech recognition and introducing innovative techniques.

The model and results are impressive - this paper will have a significant impact on future speech recognition research.