Climate Change and Conflict

Summary

The video highlights how climate change impacts every aspect of life, particularly by affecting food systems, displacing millions, and shaping conflicts. As extreme weather patterns become more frequent, water stress becomes a primary climate security risk, exacerbating resource competition, as seen in regions like the Sahel and the Horn of Africa. Climate change also allows governments and non-state actors to exploit crises for their gain, but it can also provide opportunities for cooperation. The analysis blends climate science, field insights, and cutting-edge methods to identify these risks and opportunities.

Takeaways

• 🌍 Climate change impacts every aspect of life, causing damage to food systems, displacement of millions, and influencing future conflicts.
• 🌡️ Increasing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns lead to more frequent weather extremes becoming the new norm.
• 💧 Most climate security risks today are centered around water scarcity, with some regions facing reduced water supply and others receiving more due to probable CO2 emission scenarios.
• 🌊 Extreme climate changes often manifest in prolonged dry seasons followed by erratic and intense precipitation.
• 🌳 Changes in climate affect marginalized communities and shape conflict dynamics, such as increased competition over fertile soil between farmers and herders in the Sahel region.
• 🛡️ Extreme weather events like droughts and floods cause massive displacement and instability, contributing to violence, as seen in the 2020 floods in South Sudan.
• 🏢 Governments and non-state actors, such as jihadis and gangs, strategically use climate change to their advantage, exploiting people's anger or providing services after disasters to gain support.
• 🔍 Climate change is a threat, but it can also provide opportunities for cooperation between conflict parties under the right circumstances.
• 📊 Risks and opportunities are identified by blending field insights with climate science using advanced quantitative methods, satellite imagery, climate forecasting data, and spatial analysis.
• 🌐 Visit crisisgroup.org/climate to learn more about how climate change affects conflict and security.

Q & A

How does climate change affect food systems?

Climate change damages food systems by disrupting the stability of agricultural practices through extreme weather events, changes in rainfall patterns, and increased temperatures.

What role does water play in climate security risks?

Water is central to climate security risks. Climate change alters water availability, creating scarcity in some regions and flooding in others, which contributes to conflict over resources.

How are marginalized communities particularly affected by climate change?

Marginalized communities often experience the harshest impacts of climate change due to their reliance on natural resources, vulnerability to displacement, and limited access to adaptation resources.

In what ways does climate change influence conflict dynamics?

Climate change exacerbates competition for resources, such as water and fertile land, which can lead to conflicts between different groups. It also amplifies instability by displacing communities and increasing tensions.

Can you provide an example of climate-related conflict in the Sahel region?

In the Sahel, changing rainfall patterns have led to increased competition between farmers and herders over fertile land, contributing to violent clashes, such as the deadly 2018 conflict in Nigeria.

How does climate change contribute to displacement in the Horn of Africa?

Frequent and intense weather events, such as droughts and floods, displace large populations in the Horn of Africa, leading to instability. For example, the 2020 floods in South Sudan displaced many and fueled violence.

How do non-state actors, like gangs and jihadis, exploit climate change for their own purposes?

Non-state actors, such as gangs in Mexico and jihadis like Al-Shabaab in Somalia, exploit the aftermath of climate disasters to win support by filling gaps left by state failures and providing services to affected communities.

What is a positive opportunity for cooperation that climate change might create?

Under the right circumstances, climate change can encourage cooperation between conflicting parties, particularly when they face shared environmental challenges that require collective action.

What tools are used to identify climate security risks and opportunities?

Climate security risks and opportunities are identified using a combination of field insights, climate science, satellite imagery, climate forecasting data, and spatial analysis.

How do changes in rainfall patterns affect regions differently?

While some regions are likely to see a drop in water supply, others may experience increased water availability. However, these changes often manifest in extreme forms, like prolonged dry seasons followed by erratic, intense precipitation.