14. The Diffusion of Growth
Summary
TLDRCe script explore la croissance économique moderne, qui a commencé en Angleterre au 18e siècle, alimentée par des révolutions technologiques comme la machine à vapeur et les TIC. Il met en lumière la diffusion de ces avancées dans le monde, souvent limitée par des obstacles comme l'isolement géographique, la mauvaise gouvernance ou le manque de ressources énergétiques. L'exemple du Royaume-Uni et du Japon est utilisé pour illustrer cette diffusion, tandis que de nombreux pays, en particulier les anciennes colonies, n'ont vu des améliorations qu'après la décolonisation post-Seconde Guerre mondiale.
Takeaways
- 💡 La croissance économique moderne a commencé en Angleterre au milieu du 18e siècle et continue grâce aux révolutions technologiques, comme celle des technologies de l'information.
- 🌍 La croissance économique dans la majeure partie du monde concerne principalement le rattrapage des technologies déjà existantes, comme l'électricité, et leur diffusion.
- 🌊 L'effet de diffusion technologique est comparable à des ondulations créées par un caillou jeté dans l'eau, commençant au centre des innovations et se répandant à travers le monde.
- 🌐 La proximité des marchés et des côtes est cruciale pour le développement économique, comme le souligne Adam Smith, avec des avantages pour les régions proches des ports.
- 🚜 Une bonne agriculture est nécessaire pour permettre le développement des villes, centres de l'innovation technologique et de la croissance économique.
- ⚡ Les ressources énergétiques locales, comme le charbon ou l'hydroélectricité, sont des atouts majeurs pour soutenir la production locale et faciliter la croissance économique.
- 🦠 Un environnement physique favorable à la santé humaine est important pour la diffusion de la croissance, tandis que les maladies peuvent constituer un frein au développement.
- 🏛️ La stabilité politique est un facteur clé pour permettre à une société de tirer parti des technologies disponibles et de stimuler la croissance économique.
- 🏭 L'industrialisation s'est répandue d'abord en Europe, à partir du Royaume-Uni, avec des pays voisins comme les Pays-Bas et la Belgique qui ont rapidement suivi.
- 🏝️ Le Japon a été le premier pays asiatique à s'industrialiser à la fin du 19e siècle, grâce à des conditions similaires à celles de la Grande-Bretagne, comme son climat tempéré et son insularité.
Q & A
Qu'est-ce qui a déclenché la croissance économique moderne en Angleterre au milieu du 18e siècle?
-La croissance économique moderne a été déclenchée par la révolution industrielle en Angleterre, alimentée par des avancées technologiques comme la machine à vapeur.
Comment la technologie influence-t-elle la croissance économique mondiale?
-La technologie joue un rôle crucial en permettant la diffusion et l'adoption de nouvelles innovations dans différents pays, contribuant ainsi à la croissance économique mondiale par le processus de diffusion.
Qu'est-ce que la croissance de rattrapage et pourquoi est-elle importante pour certains pays?
-La croissance de rattrapage est le processus par lequel des pays moins développés adoptent des technologies déjà existantes pour stimuler leur propre croissance économique. Elle est importante car elle permet à ces pays de rattraper leur retard technologique.
Quels facteurs freinent la diffusion technologique dans certaines régions du monde?
-La diffusion technologique est freinée par des facteurs tels que l'isolement géographique, l'absence d'infrastructures énergétiques, une agriculture faible, des environnements physiques défavorables et des conditions politiques instables.
Pourquoi les pays sans accès à l'électricité souffrent-ils encore de la pauvreté en technologie au 21e siècle?
-Ces pays souffrent d'un manque d'infrastructures et d'une incapacité à exploiter les technologies modernes comme l'électricité, malgré le fait que cette technologie soit disponible depuis plus d'un siècle.
Comment Adam Smith a-t-il expliqué le processus de diffusion technologique dans 'La richesse des nations'?
-Adam Smith a expliqué que la diffusion technologique commencerait généralement dans les régions côtières, en raison des facilités de commerce, et se propagerait lentement vers l'intérieur des terres où les échanges sont plus difficiles.
Quels avantages géographiques favorisent la croissance économique dans certains pays?
-Les avantages géographiques comprennent la proximité des marchés internationaux, des terres agricoles fertiles, des ressources énergétiques locales et des environnements favorables à la santé humaine.
Pourquoi la proximité des marchés internationaux est-elle un facteur important pour la croissance économique?
-La proximité des marchés internationaux permet un accès facile aux échanges commerciaux, augmentant ainsi les opportunités économiques pour les pays proches des grandes économies.
Quel rôle joue l'agriculture dans le développement économique selon le script?
-L'agriculture joue un rôle clé en soutenant les villes en fournissant des excédents alimentaires, ce qui permet aux zones urbaines de prospérer et de devenir des centres d'innovation technologique.
Pourquoi certaines régions comme le Japon ont-elles réussi à s'industrialiser plus tôt que d'autres?
-Le Japon a bénéficié de conditions géographiques et sociales favorables, notamment une situation insulaire similaire à celle de la Grande-Bretagne, une forte alphabétisation et une absence d'invasions maritimes, ce qui a permis un démarrage rapide de son industrialisation.
Outlines
🌍 L'essor de la croissance économique et le phénomène de rattrapage
Ce paragraphe explore la croissance économique moderne qui a commencé en Angleterre au 18e siècle, propulsée par des révolutions technologiques successives comme la machine à vapeur et la technologie de l'information. Cependant, pour la majeure partie du monde, la croissance économique repose davantage sur un processus de rattrapage que sur l'innovation. L'auteur utilise l'analogie des ondes se propageant dans un lac pour décrire la diffusion de la technologie et de la croissance économique. Certaines régions du monde sont mieux placées pour adopter ces technologies, tandis que d'autres, comme les pays sans électricité, peinent encore à bénéficier de ces avancées, posant la question cruciale : pourquoi certaines zones sont-elles laissées pour compte ?
🚢 Proximité des marchés et agriculture : des facteurs clés pour la croissance
Le second paragraphe se concentre sur les facteurs favorisant la diffusion de la croissance économique. La proximité des marchés, surtout pour les pays côtiers, est un avantage crucial. Les pays proches des puissances économiques, comme le Mexique avec les États-Unis, bénéficient également de cette proximité. Une agriculture prospère permet de soutenir les villes, centres d'innovation, en fournissant des surplus alimentaires. Enfin, les ressources énergétiques locales (comme le charbon ou l'énergie solaire) sont essentielles pour le développement économique, permettant aux technologies de s'étendre plus efficacement.
💸 Seuil de pauvreté et diffusion de la croissance en Europe
Ce paragraphe examine le moment où différents pays ont franchi un seuil symbolique de pauvreté, fixé à 2 000 dollars par habitant. Le Royaume-Uni, berceau de la Révolution industrielle, a été le premier, suivi par une diffusion géographique vers l'Europe de l'Ouest. La diffusion a ensuite touché les pays voisins comme les Pays-Bas, la Belgique, la France, et a progressivement atteint l'Allemagne, l'Europe centrale, et enfin l'Europe de l'Est. La distance par rapport à l'Angleterre est ici un facteur déterminant pour la rapidité du développement économique. À la fin du 19e siècle, presque toute l'Europe était sur la voie de l'industrialisation.
🗺️ Le rôle de la colonisation dans le retard économique
Ce paragraphe traite des effets de la colonisation sur les pays tropicaux qui n'ont pas pu profiter de la croissance économique avant la seconde moitié du 20e siècle. Les puissances coloniales européennes, comme le Royaume-Uni en Inde et la France en Afrique, utilisaient leurs colonies pour extraire des ressources primaires et n’encourageaient pas le développement industriel dans ces régions. Par conséquent, beaucoup de ces pays n'ont pas franchi le seuil de pauvreté avant la décolonisation, un processus qui a débuté après la Seconde Guerre mondiale.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Croissance économique moderne
💡Technologie endogène
💡Diffusion technologique
💡Rattrapage économique
💡Proximité des marchés
💡Ressources énergétiques locales
💡Agriculture prospère
💡Colonialisme
💡Pays enclavés
💡Politique instable
Highlights
Modern economic growth began in England in the 18th century, fueled by waves of technological innovation like the steam engine and continues today with information technology.
Economic growth for much of the world is about 'catching up' rather than leading in technological advances, highlighting the diffusion of innovation.
The diffusion of technology is described as ripples spreading from the technological center, but not all places benefit equally, with some regions still lacking basic advancements like electricity.
Adam Smith in 'The Wealth of Nations' recognized that technological diffusion starts from the coasts and moves inland due to ease of trade and market activity.
Landlocked countries like Bolivia, Chad, and Nepal face challenges in trade and technology due to their geographic isolation from coasts and ports.
Proximity to rich markets and trade routes significantly aids economic growth, as seen with Mexico's trade advantage with the U.S. and 19th-century European countries close to Britain.
Agricultural strength is critical for industrialization, as weak agriculture hampers the development of cities and modern economic growth.
Energy resources, such as coal, oil, or renewable energy, are essential for sustaining industrial production and enabling economic progress.
A healthy physical environment is important for economic growth, as disease-ridden regions face significant barriers to technological and industrial progress.
Political stability and good governance are crucial for economic development; chaos, violence, and dictatorship severely hinder growth.
The first countries to escape extreme poverty, with over $2,000 per capita income, were early industrializers like Great Britain, spreading through Western Europe.
The spread of economic development in Europe followed a clear ripple effect from England, with nearby countries like the Netherlands, Belgium, and France benefiting earlier.
Japan was the only country in Asia to experience an industrial takeoff in the 19th century, thanks to its favorable geography and Meiji Restoration reforms in 1868.
European colonialism in the 19th century stunted economic development in many parts of the world, including Africa and Asia, as empires prioritized resource extraction over industrial growth.
Post-World War II decolonization triggered economic growth in previously colonized regions, marking a significant shift in global development.
Transcripts
[Music]
we've seen how modern economic growth
burst forward in England in the middle
of the 18th century we've seen how
subsequent waves of technological change
starting first with the steam engine and
reaching us today with the information
and Communications technology Revolution
have kept that process of endogenous
economic growth continuing now for well
over two centuries but we've also noted
that economic growth has another crucial
dimension for most of the world not at
the technological Forefront and not
really contributing uh in a major way to
technological advances economic growth
is heavily about catching up uh it is
about uh how a country that sees others
in the lead can
say I want to use that technology too uh
we need information technology in our
society uh we need to use the best of
modern transport technology and the like
this is a process of catching up growth
uh it might be called a process of
diffusion if looked at from the outside
because diffusion means that something
spreads from one place to the next I
like to think of it as uh starting with
a Still Pond or a quiet Lake uh you
throw uh the uh the rock into the middle
of the lake and then you watch the
ripples Rippling away from that Center
and if the center is where the uh
endogenous technological leadership
growth is taking place those ripples
signify the spread of those Technologies
and the modern economic growth that goes
along with them to more and more of the
world how does that ripple effect work
uh what makes the ripples move forward
why is it that some places in the world
seem uh to be very well poised to follow
a technology leader pretty close at hand
whereas other parts of the world
seemingly have not been able to take
advantage of technologies that are
already uh more than a century old it's
striking to me very troubling perhaps uh
1 billion people uh some estimates have
it at even twice that level do not have
access to electricity in the 21st
century where this is a technology
developed by Edison and Westinghouse
already at the end of the 19th century
What stopped the Ripple from reaching
those places that still today don't have
electricity bringing them the benefits
of modern technology and Modern Life
that really is our question uh and it is
one that uh great economists have been
thinking about for a long time Adam
Smith way back in The Wealth of Nations
uh in that magnificent work about the
modern economy talked about the fact
that
diffusion the spread of Technology would
take time and that it would start at the
coast typically and move to the interior
why at the coast because conditions for
trade for Market activity are easier why
a long time to move to the interior
because it's very difficult to engage in
trade in the interior of a country or in
the interior of a continent uh in a
landlock country let me quote qu from
book one of The Wealth of Nations 1776
because its insights continue to inform
uh and Inspire us till today so Adam
Smith says since such therefore are the
advantages of water Carriage it is
natural that the first improvements of
Art and Industry should be made where
this conveniency opens the whole world
for a market to the produce of every
sort of Labor and that they should
always be much later in extending
themselves into the Inland parts of the
country so Smith already says in
1776 economic development is going to
start at the coasts it's going to spread
into the interior we know today more
than 200 years later that landlocked
countries of the world countries like
Bolivia in South America uh Chad and ner
uh in Africa Nepal in Asia are
necessarily facing disadvantages in
trade transport and technological
Advance by virtue of them being far from
the ports and facing very very high
costs of trade well we can go beyond
that insight to a general set of
insights of factors that are conducive
to the move of those ripples from the
center of the Industrial Revolution out
to the rest of the
world I would start again with proximity
to markets the coast is one part because
if you have a port you are in a way
proximate or close to in economic terms
other ports around the world clearly if
you are close to a rich country that
also means that there's a big market for
you Mexico has has a big Market to sell
to in its nextdoor neighbor the United
States and in the 19th century countries
that were close to Great Britain had an
advantage for their own economic
development of a booming economy that
would provide a market for their own
Goods so proximity to markets that's one
condition good agriculture definitely an
important fact because after all most of
the modern econ economy grows in cities
in uh industry and in services so you
say why do I emphasize agriculture
because if agriculture is miserable you
may not have cities to speak of because
there may be no food surplus countries
with very weak agriculture are often
exactly those places where most of the
population is in farming eaing out of
living because they can't produce enough
Surplus even for the themselves and
their families much less to feed big
urban areas as agriculture improves a
diminishing share of the
population can feed the rest of the
country and therefore support larger
cities which can then be hubs for
technological advance and catching up so
good agriculture is important for
vibrant cities and therefore places with
good AG agricultural potential have
tended to have those ripples arrive
there faster than places in very dry
conditions or poor soils or other
impediments to
agriculture third obvious point is
places that have their own energy
resources be it coal oil and gas uh
other resources Hydro electric power and
so forth have an advantage it's always
possible to export goods and import your
primary energy needs but how are you
going to export if you don't have energy
to produce those export goods so there's
often a problem of even getting started
in Economic Development regions that
have their
homebased primary energy resources
whether it's the fossil fuels of coal
oil and gas or whether it is resources
like wind energy uh or geothermal energy
uh or solar energy this is very
important as a base for domestic
production it makes it possible for
those ripples not just to hit a hard
wall but to actually continue and
generate economic change and so the
domestic energy base is extremely
important
a physical environment conducive to
human health also important a disease
ridden environment filled with malaria
area filled with worm infections
terrible conditions that afflict uh many
places in the tropics till today can be
real barriers uh real impediments to the
diffusion of economic growth and finally
is politics if the politics are
miserable uh if dictators or simply
chaos and violence uh grip a society
this makes it very hard to achieve
economic growth even if the ripples are
coming one's way uh there's going to be
no ability to harness those advantages
uh in a political environment that is
devastating well we can now look very
practically at how to apply those
insights in understanding the
actual uh ripples that uh have spread
over the world economy since the
Industrial Revolution and I have found
it
interesting and worthwhile to ask the
question when does an economy first pass
a certain threshold out of basic poverty
if we use a certain uh line roughly of
about $2,000 per person measured in
purchasing power adjusted terms in other
words adjusting for difference surprice
levels ask when is it that countries
first escaped from extreme poverty by
reaching that threshold or above we can
learn a lot which is the first country
to do it well it's Great Britain United
Kingdom the home of the Industrial
Revolution then those ripples start to
spread and by now they've reached most
of the world if we look just within
Western Europe it's quite fascinating
because it really looks like ripples
spreading out from the home of the
Industrial Revolution itself in England
out through the neighboring countries uh
the Netherlands right across the sea
from England and then spreading into
Belgium and France spreading next into
Germany spreading a bit farther uh into
Scandinavia and Spain a bit later uh
into Central Europe into what was then
the hapsburg Empire and now is the Czech
Republic and Slovakia uh and Hungary uh
and other parts of Central Europe and
then spreading after that into Eastern
Europe Romania Bulgaria Russia and other
countries further to the east so what we
see is within Europe itself in the 19th
century that ripple effect very clear it
starts uh where the stone hits first
where James Watt and his steam engine
revolutionize the the modern world and
then you have a diffusion of modern econ
economic growth uh that is well dated to
distance from England itself the more
proximate England the faster the
diffusion of Technologies the faster is
the uptake of modern economic growth but
since Europe itself is relatively
compact by the end of the 19th century
virtually all of Europe is on a path of
industrial economic development for the
world it's obviously a much different
story uh the ripples have to travel much
longer distances face far more
complex uh conditions uh and uh have hit
barriers that have dissipated that
energy uh and have frustrated the
takeoff of modern economic growth often
for decades and in some cases till now
and you have the takeoff in what's some
historians call the land of new
settlements the United States Australia
New Zealand Canada they are early
industrializers they are early to cross
the thresholds out of extreme poverty
the next group of countries are
countries that share a favorable natural
environment generally they are in the
climate zones that we call temperate
zones like England Four Seasons good
rains around the year
Argentina uguay Chile are examples of
countries where the escape from poverty
is already underway in the 19th century
in Asia there's only one case of
industrial takeoff by the end of the
19th century and that's Japan take a
look at the map the place of Japan on
the map is fairly analogous to the
location of Great Britain off the great
Eurasian landmass M of course Great
Britain on the west of the Eurasian
landmass and Japan on the east of the
Eurasian land mass two Island economies
two temperate zone climates two places
where the conditions of uh social life
literacy rates uh freedom from uh
Invasion by sea enabled them to have
takeoff conditions and Japan becomes the
takeoff site
for uh Asia uh with the its burst
forward into industrialization beginning
in 1868 the so-called Magi restoration
much of the rest of the world no such
luck until the second half of the 20th
century because what happened in a lot
of the rest of the world no Independence
no
sovereignty in fact Conquest Europe
becomes so so powerful that European
Empires conquer large parts of the
Tropical World by the end of the 19th
century virtually all of Africa is under
European colonial rule India has
succumbed to British Conquest much of
Asia has succumbed to French and British
conquest and those countries do not pass
the threshold out of extreme poverty the
ripples don't reach them the Imperial
Powers want to maximize their own
wellbeing at home their own
industrialization they view their
colonies by and large as places for
primary resources for low-skilled labor
not as places for Industrial Development
and so a lot of the rest of the world
does not
see modern economic growth until after
world War II and the process of
decolonization this is a crucial
historic period that we're going to look
at
next
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