The Story of Concord's Failure Goes Much Deeper.

Summary

The video discusses the controversy surrounding the game 'Concord', developed by Firewalk Studios under Probably Monsters. It delves into the $400 million claim, the acquisition by Sony, and the studio's financial backing. The narrative explores the industry's live service model, the challenges faced by Sony's gaming strategy, and the implications of venture capital in game development. It also touches on the potential synergies with Bungie and the future of Firewalk Studios post-acquisition.

Takeaways

• 💬 The game 'Concord' developed by Firewalk Studios has been surrounded by controversy and claims of a $400 million development cost.
• 🔥 There's speculation about a 'toxic positivity' culture at Firewalk Studios that may have hindered the development of 'Concord'.
• 🤔 The game director of 'Concord' reportedly self-demoted, adding to the turmoil surrounding the project.
• 💸 Sony's acquisition of Firewalk Studios is part of a bigger picture involving financial incentives and the business of game development.
• 🕵️‍♂️ The story of Firewalk Studios and 'Concord' is deeply connected to Harold Ryan, founder of Probably Monsters, and his history in the gaming industry.
• 💼 Probably Monsters, founded by Ryan, received significant venture capital funding and was involved in the development of 'Concord'.
• 📉 The gaming industry, like other sectors, is not immune to economic fluctuations, which can impact studio acquisitions and game development.
• 🔄 The process of game development involves stages like pre-production and full production, with different levels of investment required at each stage.
• 🏭 Sony's acquisition of Firewalk Studios might be a strategic move to gain control over the development process and talent, rather than just a publishing deal.
• 🔄 The business model of venture capital-backed studios like Probably Monsters involves building games, finding publishers, and potentially selling the studio for returns on investment.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the video script?

The main topic of the video script is the acquisition of Firewalk Studios by Sony and the controversy surrounding the development costs of the game Concord, which is rumored to have cost $400 million.

What is 'toxic positivity' as mentioned in the script?

Toxic positivity refers to a work culture where negative feedback is discouraged, potentially leading to the failure to address serious issues, as allegedly happened at Firewalk Studios during the development of Concord.

What is the significance of the $400 million figure mentioned in the script?

The $400 million figure is significant because it represents the rumored total cost of developing the game Concord, which has sparked discussions about the efficiency and financial decisions in the gaming industry.

Who is Colin Morar and why is his tweet significant?

Colin Morar is a person who tweeted about the issues at Firewalk Studios, claiming that the development of Concord cost $400 million. His tweet is significant because it went viral and brought attention to the alleged financial mismanagement and the culture at the studio.

What is the role of Harold Ryan in the narrative?

Harold Ryan is a key figure in the narrative as he is the founder of Probably Monsters, the parent company of Firewalk Studios. He has a history of working in the gaming industry, including a tenure as CEO of Bungie.

Why did Sony acquire Firewalk Studios?

Sony acquired Firewalk Studios for several reasons, including their desire to own the intellectual property of Concord, the potential synergy with Bungie (a company Sony had previously acquired), and the strategic move to have more control over the development of games that fit their live service plans.

What is the business model of Probably Monsters?

The business model of Probably Monsters involves building teams to create games, then either running the games internally or securing deals such as acquisitions or publishing contracts. The goal is to leverage venture capital funding to develop games and then sell the studios or secure publishing deals to generate returns.

What does the term 'incubation teams' refer to in the context of Probably Monsters?

Incubation teams in the context of Probably Monsters refer to smaller, early-stage development teams focused on creating game concepts and prototypes. These teams are part of the pre-production phase before scaling up for full production.

Why might the acquisition of Firewalk Studios by Sony be seen as a positive move for Probably Monsters?

The acquisition of Firewalk Studios by Sony could be seen as positive for Probably Monsters because it allows them to offload the financial burden of full-scale production, which is costly and risky. It also provides a return on their venture capital funding and allows them to focus on other projects.

What is the significance of the game Helldivers 2 in the discussion?

Helldivers 2 is significant in the discussion because it serves as a comparison to Concord. It shows that an exclusive publishing deal can be successful without the need for a full studio acquisition, which raises questions about Sony's decision to buy Firewalk Studios.

What are the implications of the Concord development story for the gaming industry?

The Concord development story implies that the gaming industry can be fraught with high risks and costs, especially for AAA titles. It highlights the challenges of managing large-scale game development, the importance of publisher-developer relationships, and the financial pressures that can lead to studio acquisitions or closures.

Outlines

00:00

💸 The Financial Complexity of Concord's Development

The paragraph discusses the financial intricacies surrounding the development of the game Concord. It mentions a tweet by Colin Morar that claimed Concord cost $400 million to develop, a figure that has been contested. The narrative delves into the backstory, including the potential involvement of Sony and the acquisition of Firewalk Studios. It also touches on the concept of 'toxic positivity' within the game development culture, which may have contributed to the game's high cost. The paragraph sets the stage for a deeper exploration of the business side of game development.

05:01

🚀 The Evolution of Firewalk Studios and Probably Monsters

This section of the script narrates the history of Firewalk Studios and its parent company, Probably Monsters. It details the founding of Probably Monsters by Harold Ryan, a former Bungie executive, and the subsequent establishment of Firewalk Studios. The paragraph outlines the funding rounds of Probably Monsters, the growth of Firewalk, and its partnership with Sony. It also discusses the challenges faced by the company, including the cancellation of a game and the broader market conditions that may have influenced their decisions.

10:02

💼 The Business Model Behind Game Development Deals

The third paragraph examines the business model of video game development, particularly the relationship between Probably Monsters, Firewalk Studios, and Sony. It discusses the role of venture capital in game development and the strategy of using external funding for production. The paragraph also explores the decision by Sony to acquire Firewalk Studios, suggesting that it was driven by a desire for control and synergy with Bungie, another Sony-owned studio. It highlights the challenges of late entries into saturated markets and the risks associated with incubation teams.

15:02

🌐 The Industry-Wide Implications of Development Strategies

The final paragraph of the script broadens the discussion to include industry-wide practices and the implications of the business model on game development. It uses the example of Starfield's development to illustrate how pre-production can extend the perceived development timeline and how full production is often funded by publishers. The paragraph concludes by suggesting that the acquisition of Firewalk Studios by Sony is a strategic move that aligns with industry norms, and it hints at potential future collaborations between Firewalk and Bungie.

Keywords

💡Concord

Concord refers to a game developed by the studio Firewalk, which is a key subject in the video. The game is mentioned as having a 'toxic positivity culture' and is central to the discussion about the financial implications and the business decisions surrounding its development and acquisition by Sony. The video suggests that Concord might have cost $400 million, sparking a debate on the actual figures and the studio's situation.

💡Toxic positivity

Toxic positivity is described as a culture where negative feedback is stifled, potentially leading to poor decision-making and project outcomes. In the context of the video, it is suggested that this culture at Firewalk Studios may have contributed to the issues with the development of Concord, costing Sony a significant amount of money.

💡Sony

Sony is a major player in the video, being the company that acquired Firewalk Studios and is heavily invested in the development of Concord. The video discusses Sony's financial commitment, the implications of their live service push, and their strategy in the gaming industry, particularly in relation to the acquisition of Firewalk and the development of Concord.

💡Firewalk Studios

Firewalk Studios is the developer of Concord and a focal point in the video. It was initially part of Probably Monsters before being acquired by Sony. The studio's acquisition and the development costs associated with Concord are central to the video's narrative, with discussions around the financial incentives and the studio's role in Sony's gaming strategy.

💡Probably Monsters

Probably Monsters is the parent company of Firewalk Studios, founded by Harold Ryan. The video discusses the company's role in the development of Concord and its business model, which involves孵化团队 and leveraging venture capital to develop games. The company's strategy and the implications of selling Firewalk to Sony are key points in the video.

💡Live service games

Live service games are a significant part of the video's discussion, referring to games that are continually updated and monetized over time. Sony's push towards live service games is mentioned, with Concord being part of this strategy. The video also touches on the challenges and financial commitments associated with developing and maintaining live service games.

💡Financial incentives

Financial incentives are discussed in the context of the business decisions made by Sony and Probably Monsters. The video explores how these incentives drove the acquisition of Firewalk Studios and the development of Concord, including the potential misalignment between the reported costs and the actual financial commitments.

💡Harold Ryan

Harold Ryan is mentioned as the founder of Probably Monsters and a key figure in the video's narrative. His background, including his tenure at Bungie and the founding of Probably Monsters, is relevant to understanding the company's strategy and its relationship with Sony in the development of Concord.

💡Market saturation

Market saturation is discussed in relation to the challenges faced by Probably Monsters' other studios, such as Battle Barge and Hidden Grove. The video suggests that these studios are working on games that are late entries to saturated markets, which could impact their success and the return on investment for Sony.

💡Incubation teams

Incubation teams are smaller teams focused on the early stages of game development, as discussed in the video. Probably Monsters is described as having incubation teams that work on the pre-production phase of games, which is a cost-effective strategy before scaling up to full production. The video implies that Firewalk Studios was one such team before being acquired by Sony.

💡Full production

Full production refers to the stage of game development where a larger team is involved to complete the game. The video contrasts this with the incubation phase, suggesting that Sony took on the more expensive full production costs for Concord, which is a common practice in the gaming industry to manage financial risks and leverage expertise.

Highlights

Concord game development involved a 'toxic positivity' culture that allegedly halted negative feedback.

The game director of Concord self-demoted amid the controversy.

A tweet from Colin Morar claimed Concord cost $400 million to develop, sparking widespread discussion.

Sony's acquisition of Firewalk Studios, the developer of Concord, is part of a larger business strategy.

Financial incentives and the involvement of venture capital in game development were key factors in Concord's development.

The claim of a $400 million development cost is contested, with some sources suggesting a lower figure.

Harold Ryan, founder of Probably Monsters, has a significant background in the gaming industry, including a key role at Bungie.

Probably Monsters was founded with the intent to build teams and develop games, then sell or publish them.

Firewalk Studios, the developer of Concord, was part of Probably Monsters and started in 2018.

Sony's live service push has been met with mixed results, with several projects being cancelled or delayed.

The acquisition of Firewalk Studios by Sony in April 2023 was followed by the cancellation of another Probably Monsters studio's game in June.

The game Immortals of Aven, starring Jack Aven, was a significant financial failure despite a large budget.

Probably Monsters has multiple studios working on different projects, including a co-op RPG and a narrative game.

The business model of Probably Monsters involves incubating game ideas and then finding publishers or buyers to fund full production.

The acquisition of Firewalk Studios by Sony allowed Probably Monsters to avoid the full production costs of Concord.

The future of Firewalk Studios and the game Concord remains uncertain following the acquisition by Sony.

The gaming industry often involves late entries to saturated markets, which can be risky for both developers and publishers.

Transcripts

okay everyone here's the deal today

there's a lot of Concord news swirling

about the place there's talk of toxic

positivity at the studio the game

director is actually self-d demoted and

then there's the story I'm doing in full

depth today $400 million it's a massive

claim so the question is did Concord

cost that but it actually goes deeper

because we've got to ask who Sony

acquired firewalk from we've got to work

out the financial incentives involved

and let's just say the answer is deeper

than you think and by the end of today's

video I guarantee you will understand

way more of how the business of games

actually works here's the spark of

today's story Colin morar tweeted this

which I've added to down for brevity I

spoke with someone from Concord and it's

worse than you think it was called the

future of PlayStation with Star Wars

like potential and a toxic positivity

culture halted negative feedback it cost

$400

million this was an explosive tweet it

absolutely went all over the internet

and it makes sense it does kind of back

up our assumption $400 million I mean of

course it's Sony they're mad Spider-Man

2 cost $315 million even though it was a

sequel with shared technology to its

predecessor toxic positivity I mean yeah

how does something that obviously looked

so doomed even get made Star Wars

potential that also makes sense the

thing looks like Star Wars with some

Guardians of the Galaxy thrown into a

blender and as for the future of

PlayStation well of course under Jim

Ryan PlayStation's live service push so

far is a mess of course Jim's God now

and yeah hell divers 2 was absolutely a

win but that started in 2016 the rest

are chaos Naughty Dog killed The Last of

Us Part Two multiplayer Horizon has had

multiplayer projects yes plural uh that

are just Mia there's the likes of the

deviation games deal that went South

Sony actually went from saying 12 life

service releases by 2026 fiscal year to

only six so it halfed the organic growth

from Guerilla and naughty dog is clearly

a wash here but what about inorganic

growth like say the bunge acquisition

well uh you've seen the headlines as

well that's not going amazingly so yes I

can totally see the story of siie saying

to themselves this game will be our

future part of our live service plan and

somehow $400 million being involved but

again that 400 million number has been

contested so the question is is Colin

lying I don't think he is at all I think

he is telling what he believes to be

true is his Source lying well that's

possible but I'm going to assume assume

the best here now the podcast call in

did where all this comes from does

mention a $200 million number from Sony

and that's corroborated by other people

but then other people then also refute

the $400 million from the Tweet to work

this out I had to go to the beginning I

had to research Harold Ryan because it

all starts with him and doing that sort

of thing is completely normal and Grand

given this topic that we're doing but

not always and that's where today's

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tocom SLB their news Concord was

developed by a studio called firewalk

and the popular story is that firewalk

made a game so good Sony just gobbled

them up that is only friends partially

true there is another party involved and

that is probably monsters Harold Ryan

founded probably monsters in 2016 and by

then he had quite the career Harold

actually Rose from being a game tester

at Microsoft all the way to Bungie where

he was test manager on Halo 2 by 2006

the launch gear of Halo 3 he was Studio

manager and by 08 he was the CEO he

actually ran Bungie he spent the next

eight years as CEO of Bungie he then

left to found probably monsters in

January 2016 and as for Bungie's new CEO

well of course Pete Parsons a man with

an admittedly pretty damn good taste in

classic cars but a pretty rough tenure

as CEO of the company you can head up

this video for the latest than that back

to Harold during his tenure Bungie

launched Halo Reach they left Microsoft

they launched Destiny they completed the

shift from Halo style games all the way

to the modern live service in a way they

pioneered it now destiny absolutely had

its problems but what it was was a

massive brand that sparked Trends and he

led the company through that

transformational period one that the

rest of the industry would spend

billions trying to chase probably

monsters then was founded by him and

others and it started in stealth mode in

2016 slowly building up a team of Bungie

veterans the first funding is unknown

but they did get an $18 million seed

funding round in 2019 and then they

announced a $200 million series a in

2021 aiming for 300 people within a year

but let's not get ahead of ourselves the

series a was announced in 2021 but

firewalk the studio that actually made

Concord they started in 2018 as a part

of probably monsters though the idea for

Concord was a few years younger Now by

that time they did seem to have other

Studios at least one was sizable firewok

then went on to announce a Sony

partnership in 2021 the team then grew

to the upper double digits according to

one of the co-founders and Sony got for

them a new building to kind of reinforce

a bit of separation of them as a team by

now then things look awesome for

probably monsters I mean come on they've

got a big deal with Sony they've got

multiple Studios they have $200 million

in VC funding all surely looks

absolutely amazing but uh remember what

the early 2020s were like remember the

co bubble here's a bit of a laugh to

illustrate that the company Zoom went

from trading at $70 in 2019 to

$559 a share in 2020 down to 384 in 2021

and now is at

$67 Collective Madness that lost a lot

of people a lot of money of course to

the gain of the few who played it right

now for probably monsters when they get

$200 million that's obviously based on a

future valuation probably a large one

that is a decent multiple of that 200

million and that means more than just

one studio so you got firewalk Concord

Sony there's another team called

cauldron with god of war and Destiny

developers who are working on a

narrative game and then there is a team

who would later be announced as battle

barge who are working on a co-op RPG

with Talent from torch light and

Borderlands all must have seemed amazing

but then the next few years happened the

internal state of things may have

contrasted all of that public amazing

news so April 2023 saw Sony and

announced the firewor acquisition

probably monsters had 450 employees at

the time across battle barge and

cauldron plus any other teams that they

hadn't announced by June though things

would change they announced that

cauldron's game was cancelled and when

he announced it Harold said the

competitive landscape was too uncertain

and I suppose for some sort of narrative

game you can understand that just a few

months later August 22nd we had the

absolute Legendary game of the decade

Immortals of Aven starring Jack Aven who

tried to stop the ever War unfortunately

though it bombed on a reported budget of

$125 million you can see why the market

perhaps isn't uh enthusiastic but don't

worry because around the same time

battle barge was revealed to the public

externally then it looked a bit worrying

I mean they only had one announced

Studio they just had to kill one of

their major games it was only battle

barge Well turns out that's actually not

the case they had incubation teams and

that's why in April 2024 they unveiled

Hidden Grove another Studio they

highlighted it once more having Destiny

2 veterans like their general manager

who was a creative director over at

Bungie now I dug up this polygon

interview from April and in that the GM

basically hinted uh to the journalist

that there would be Battle Royale

elements and then said there' be a

closed Alpha in the summer now either

closed Alpha means closed Alpha and it

has not been leaked and like it is

actually happening and it's going to

plan either that or um well we haven't

heard anything about it and the summer

is passed and therefore maybe there's

there's been some sort of delay I mean

thinking first principles I hear be our

elements and I certainly think that

that's not on Trend anymore and then I

think about the other game being done by

battle barge it's cop RPG but it's one

with torch light and Borderlands

developers and that makes me think that

in both cases they're working on late

entries to saturated markets something

that Sony of course glossed over when

they went for Concord so now that you

know the context let's talk about the

deal and the 400 million once again I'm

trying to steal man everybody here

assuming no lies Colin and those who

refute him I believe are telling their

own personal truth based on all that

they believe that means the $400 Million

number comes from somewhere but it's not

what Sony sunk into concord's

development given how many people are

saying that's not the case now Colin's

podcast mentions PlayStation spending

200 million the Tweet says it cost 400

million the it there is Concord and the

most simple explanation there is you

just add the 200 million from the series

a to the 200 million from PlayStation

and then you get the cost of of Concord

spread between Sony and probably

monsters being 400 million but that of

course is not an accurate thing because

the $200 million series a funding is at

least for two internal Studios not just

the Concord development and of course

any incubators that we don't know about

in fact as it pertains to Concord the

bulk of its development would have been

paid by Sony via their exclusive

publishing contract so to me the

reporter $200 million on Playstation is

basically just the cost of publishing

Concord that does mean paying for the

new building for that team it means

paying for that team's expansion and

also paying for outsourcing there was

quite a lot of Outsourcing involved in

Concord although that is an extremely

common thing within the games industry

far more than most people know and it's

extremely prevalent with say Insomniac

and their games so that inflating things

up to 400 million just doesn't really

pass the sniff test either than the $400

Million number comes from adding the

series a or Sony ended up paying 200

million to acquire the studio but even

if it is the latter why would would they

acquire the studio when hell divers 2

shows that all you need is an exclusive

publishing deal and that is where

today's story actually gets interesting

on the surface yes Sony loved Concord

and they wanted it but I don't think

that's the full story because of two

points Point number one is Bungie I mean

obviously Sony bought Bungie for $3.7

billion firewalk are mostly X Bungie and

no doubt there will be strong Synergy

given the crossover in the sorts of

games they're making point two then is

deviation games essentially a team of X

Trey art people founded a studio they're

working on an FPS Sony clearly wanted a

Call of Duty competitor that made a lot

of sense given uh you know what

Microsoft wanted to do with Activision

Blizzard King but that game ended up

going south and it appears the deviation

is now dead the thing there for Sony is

they were merely the publisher that

meant they did not own the studio they

did not have full control the best they

could do at a certain point is just to

walk away and so burned by an experience

like that I think acquisition must have

looked good that explains it from Sony's

side but you're probably thinking hang

on a second probably monsters just got

Sony to pay for the whole development of

a game why on Earth would they sell the

studio there's a very good reason so

let's work out the other side of the

deal the most important thing to

understand is that probably monsters is

a venture capital backed Studio

Collective that means that selling a

studio does fit their business model and

the broad idea is going to be something

like this build a team have it make a

game either run that game internally off

your own game or take a deal be that

acquisition or be that a publishing deal

but that's only a surface level rate

we've got to go deeper to see how the

business model actually makes sense and

that's because video games in a way are

like films in many ways they're not but

both start with pre-production you know

writing prototyping solving tech issues

and building pipelines ideally with

veteran staff as an example like the

sorts of staff that probably monster was

able to Target and when pre-production

goes amazingly you get the Lord of the

Rings when pre-production does not go

amazingly you get The Hobbit trilogy so

the way it works is you do your

pre-production you got a solid case for

your game but then you actually need say

five times more people six seven eight

times more people to actually build the

thing and that might not even be

including the people that you'd be

contracting to as well if you're going

to do that you need a lot of money so

why spend your own you should doing good

business spend somebody else's money and

that's why you get a publisher for

Concord that publisher was Sony and

again remember Sony had a full

publishing deal for for this game before

they decided to acquire the studio in a

case like this Sony pays for full

production which is the most expensive

part and that kind of makes sense Sony

are a big company they have a lot of

money what they can provide is capital

and scale a smaller more incubation

Focus company while maybe they are the

sort of company that's good at making

ideas building small teams of absolute

pros and that's sort of how the market

shakes out now let's take hell divers 2

as an example obviously Arrowhead had a

good relationship with Sony because of

Hell divers one but Arrowhead as of

January 2016 had around 30 staff of

course though with Sony's deal to do

full production for hell divers 2 the

team grew to well over a 100 and I

believe it's currently growing now and

that means when we look at say cauldron

and the death of that it's probably

because they could not find a publisher

for that game that means that while they

might have a great vertical slice a

great plan for the game they just

weren't getting any biters that means

that for battle barge and and Hidden

Grove those are almost certainly not

full-scale production teams they are

going to be pre-production teams not a

small incubation Team game jamming no

they will be larger than that and they

will be more expensive because they're

full of veterans but not full size not

full expense and indeed if you go to the

probably monsters website right now you

do see it list incubation teams as a

thing that they've got but it's grayed

out there's no public info on them and

what we learned from all of this then is

extremely clear this is business as

usual and it it happens in a way that

actually misleads and confuses people as

an example loads purchase Starfield

because they thought that this was

Bethesda cooking for eight years right

an 8year Bethesda development which is

more than the usual four or five but of

course in reality Starfield existed in

pre-production and tests for years but

it only had its full production staff of

275 between 2020 and 2023 meaning a lot

of customers thought they're getting 8

years of extremely expensive AAA

development when in fact uh no it was

three though to be clear eight years of

just shive 300 people would be a stupid

amount to spend on one single game and

it would make the game probably worse

cuz uh more people is absolutely not

marrier and the one time where too many

cooks spoils the broth well I think that

is absolutely pre-production where you

need a small team so the ideas are good

and the talent density is high and so

what we learn here is the core business

model is to make a core game with a

vision and a production plan they then

sold one of those to Sony who decided to

double down and purchase the studio and

that's what happened with firewalk

probably monsters don't have to pay for

the full production just incubation the

expensive part is handled by a third

party and ideally they sell a studio

because when they sell a studio that's

going to be pretty damn great for the

people who cut the deal because you

don't dump $200 million into a series a

without some sort of expectation of

returns and so firewalk is now a studio

in limbo the staff there do not know

what Sony have got planned for either

Concord or them but it is relevant that

uh they've got skills skills that have a

lot of overlap with Bungie and I've

heard on the Great Vine that marathon is

actually a bit of a show so it

seems Bungie might need the help now to

understand Bungie's dire situation you

got to watch this video next