FiveThirtyEight: Kamala Harris Receives BIG Debate BUMP

Summary

In this video, the host analyzes the 2024 presidential election forecast following the first and only debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. The debate has tightened the race, with Harris now leading in the polls and receiving a significant post-debate fundraising boost. The discussion highlights key battleground states, the importance of financial support in the election, and the potential impact of the debate on down-ballot races.

Takeaways

• 📅 Today's date is Saturday, September 14th, 2024, and the video discusses the 2024 presidential election forecast.
• 🔍 The forecast is analyzed 5 days after the only presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
• 📉 Initially, Kamala Harris had a 60% lead, but it tightened to a 55% chance of victory nationwide after the debate.
• 🔼 Despite the tight race, Harris is showing significant improvement in battleground states compared to President Joe Biden's performance.
• 📊 Post-debate, national polls from Morning Consult, Reuters, and Ipsos indicate an expansion of Harris's lead, with no national poll showing Trump in the lead.
• 💰 Harris raised $47 million following the debate, a substantial sum contributing to the Democrats' already substantial war chest.
• 🏦 Political betting markets have shifted in favor of Harris, positioning her as the favorite against Trump.
• 🗺️ The 538 forecast currently places Harris at a 60% chance of victory, a significant advantage, especially in light of historical data.
• 📈 The debate appears to have given Harris a 'bump', improving her odds in key battleground states and setting her up for a potential victory in the election.
• 💬 The media narrative and public perception seem to be favoring Harris, with the debate performance influencing voter sentiment and financial contributions.

Q & A

What is the date mentioned in the video script?

The date mentioned in the video script is Saturday, September 14th, 2024.

Who are the two candidates participating in the presidential debate?

The two candidates participating in the presidential debate are Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

What was Kamala Harris's initial forecast by 538 before the debate?

Initially, 538 had Kamala Harris losing against Donald Trump. However, as they got closer to the Democratic Convention and the first presidential debate, she maintained a lead nationwide.

What was the approximate nationwide victory chance for Kamala Harris just before the debate?

Just before the debate, 538 had Kamala Harris's nationwide victory chance at 55%.

How much money did Kamala Harris raise after the first and only presidential debate?

Kamala Harris raised $47 million after the first and only presidential debate.

What is the significance of the $47 million raised by Kamala Harris?

The $47 million raised is significant because it adds to the Democrats' already substantial war chest, giving them a substantial financial advantage with just two months left to the election.

What was the impact of the debate on Kamala Harris's odds according to 538?

The debate had a positive impact on Kamala Harris's odds. After the debate, she saw an increase to a 60% chance of nationwide victory, up from 54% before the debate.

Which states are considered battleground states in the 2024 presidential election mentioned in the script?

The battleground states mentioned in the script are North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada.

What is the 'magic number' of electoral votes needed to win the presidency?

The 'magic number' of electoral votes needed to win the presidency is 270.

How does the script suggest the Democratic party is approaching the election strategy?

The script suggests that the Democratic party, with Kamala Harris, is focusing on a seven-state strategy, investing heavily in battleground states, and raising substantial funds to secure victory.

What is the role of the debate performance in shaping the election narrative according to the script?

The debate performance is seen as pivotal in shaping the election narrative. Kamala Harris's performance is credited with halting negative momentum and expanding her lead, which is reflected in the polls and the forecast by 538.

Outlines

00:00

🗳️ 2024 Presidential Election Forecast and Debate Impact

The video discusses the 2024 presidential election forecast following the only debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Initially, Harris had a 60% lead, but it tightened to 55% just a week before the debate. The debate seems to have given Harris a boost, with new polls showing her expanding her national lead. Financially, Harris raised $47 million after the debate, which, combined with the Democratic party's significant war chest, puts her in a strong position. The political betting markets have also shifted in her favor. The forecast now gives Harris a nearly 20% lead over Trump, which, while not guaranteeing victory, puts her closer to the necessary 270 electoral votes. Key battleground states like North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona are showing positive shifts towards Harris, which could be crucial in the election outcome.

05:01

📊 Shifts in Polls and Strategic Campaigning

This paragraph delves into the shifts in polls post-debate, highlighting how Vice President Kamala Harris's numbers have improved, particularly in battleground states like Georgia, which could be pivotal in the election. It contrasts the initial advantage Donald Trump had with the current trend favoring Harris. The discussion emphasizes the importance of strategic campaigning, including where to spend money and rally, to win an election. The paragraph also touches on the media narrative and the Democrats' strategy to capitalize on Trump's decision not to participate in future debates, potentially giving Harris an upper hand in the final stretch of the campaign.

10:02

💰 The Role of Funding in Shaping the Election

The video segment underscores the critical role of campaign funding, illustrating how Kamala Harris's campaign is leveraging its financial advantage to flood battleground states with advertisements and resources. With over $250 million spent in key states, Harris's campaign is outpacing Trump's in terms of organization and fundraising. The strategy is to solidify support in states that are crucial for the electoral vote while not neglecting the base. The paragraph also discusses how the money is being allocated to ensure Harris's message reaches the right demographics and how this financial edge could influence the election's outcome.

15:02

🌐 Post-Debate Momentum and Path to Victory

In the final paragraph, the video reflects on the post-debate momentum and how it has solidified Kamala Harris's path to victory. It discusses the importance of every small advantage in a closely contested election and how Harris's debate performance has halted any decline in her momentum. The paragraph also speculates on the potential electoral map outcomes, suggesting that if the election were held today, Harris could win with a significant number of electoral votes. It concludes by emphasizing the importance of the debate in shaping the race and how every strategic move, including where to invest resources, can make a difference in the final results.

Keywords

💡Presidential Election Forecast

The 'Presidential Election Forecast' refers to predictions or estimates made by analysts or polling organizations about the potential outcomes of a presidential election. In the video, this concept is central as it discusses the forecast from 538 regarding the 2024 presidential election, highlighting shifts in the odds after a key debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

💡Debate Bump

A 'Debate Bump' is a term used in political campaigns to describe the increase in a candidate's popularity or lead in polls following a debate. The video emphasizes this concept by discussing how Kamala Harris's performance in the debate led to an uptick in her forecasted chances of winning the election.

💡538

In the context of the video, '538' refers to the website FiveThirtyEight, which is known for its data-driven analysis and predictions on politics, including election forecasts. The script mentions 538's forecast, which plays a significant role in shaping public perception of the election's likely outcome.

💡Battleground States

Battleground States, also known as swing states, are those that could go either way in an election and are fiercely contested by both parties. The video discusses how Kamala Harris's performance in the debate has improved her standing in these states, which are crucial for reaching the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

💡Fundraising

Fundraising in the context of the video refers to the process of collecting financial support for a political campaign. The script mentions Kamala Harris raising $47 million after the debate, illustrating the importance of financial resources in modern political campaigns and their potential impact on election outcomes.

💡Political Betting Markets

Political Betting Markets are platforms where people can place bets on political outcomes, like who will win an election. The video notes that these markets have started to favor Kamala Harris, indicating a shift in public sentiment and expectations post-debate.

💡Electoral Votes

Electoral Votes are the votes cast by the Electoral College for a candidate in a presidential election. The video discusses the importance of reaching 270 electoral votes to secure a victory, and how the forecasted gains in certain states could influence this total for Kamala Harris.

💡Favorability Rating

A 'Favorability Rating' measures how positively or negatively the public views a political candidate. The video script indicates that Kamala Harris's favorability rating has rebounded, suggesting an improvement in her image among voters, which is crucial for her campaign's success.

💡Rallies

Rallies in the context of the video are public gatherings where political candidates make speeches and engage with supporters. The script contrasts the number and strategic locations of rallies held by Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, highlighting the importance of these events in mobilizing voter support.

💡Media Narrative

The 'Media Narrative' refers to the story or angle that media outlets choose to focus on when covering events, such as an election. The video mentions how the media has picked up on Donald Trump's decision not to participate in future debates, potentially influencing public perception and the election's dynamics.

Highlights

2024 presidential election forecast from 538 shows a tightening race.

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump had the first and only presidential debate.

Harris was at 60% a few weeks ago, but the odds have been tightening.

538 initially had Harris losing against Trump, but she maintained a nationwide lead.

A week before the debate, Harris's chances of victory nationwide were at 55%.

The debate has had a significant impact on the election forecast.

Harris is gaining support in battleground states compared to President Joe Biden.

Post-debate, Harris raised $47 million, a substantial sum with two months left in the election.

Political betting markets have started to favor Harris.

Harris is showing a clear advantage in the 538 forecast with a 60 to 40 split.

Battleground states like North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona are turning in favor of Harris.

Harris's campaign is strategically investing in key battleground states.

Harris's favorability rating has rebounded since becoming the Democratic nominee.

The debate bump for Harris has been significant, increasing her odds to 60%.

Harris's campaign is outspending and outpacing Trump's campaign in key states.

Harris's campaign has a seven-state strategy to win the election.

Harris's debate performance has halted any conversation around her momentum ending.

The election is close, but every little moment matters in a presidential election.

Transcripts

welcome back to today's video today is

Saturday September 14th 2024 and today

we are going to be talking about the

2024 presidential election forecast from

538 5 days after the first and only

presidential debate between vice

president kamla Harris and former

president Donald Trump this presidential

debate comes at a time where both sides

of the aisle have been in a very

competitive presidential election the

odds have been tightening over the past

two weeks and it has come to a point

where any and all impacts on the left

wing on the right wing have started to

change the trory of the race in one

candidate's favor over the other now K

Harris had been at 60% roughly 3 to 4

weeks ago she had been riding high and

had been graining in terms of the

overall forecast 538 initially had her

losing against Donald Trump when she

first became the presumptive and then

the eventual nomin for the Democratic

party but as we got closer to the

Democratic Convention and as we got

closer to that first presidential debate

she had maintained a lead Nationwide but

just around a week ago in fact less than

on Monday evening 538 had KLA Harris at

just a 55% chance a victory Nationwide

now you might be thinking 5% really

doesn't make a difference but in an

election as close as this one it

absolutely does and what we've started

to see is that this impact in terms of K

Harris gaining and support isn't

necessarily saying that she's here to

completely run off the map but she is in

fact doing better tremendously better in

some of these Battleground States

especially compared to that of President

Joe Biden Across the Nation and so 538

forecast what I really want to unpack

here is the impact of this presidential

debate as we've started to see new major

headlines and in terms of national polls

from the morning consult and Reuters and

ipsos that are showing KLA Harris

expanding her National lead not a single

poll released nationally over the past

four days that has been conducted post

debate has shown Donald Trump in the

advantage over KLA Harris and in a

number of battleground State polls to

what are we finding KLA Harris is

starting to to do better and so it isn't

just that either right the polls are one

thing the other big part of elections

are finances and KLA Harris raising $47

million after the first and only

presidential debate this is a huge sum

of money with just two months to go in

the election when Democrats are already

sitting on a war chest of half a billion

dollars not to mention that the

political betting markets have started

to change in favor of KL Harris today

she stands as the favorite over Donald

Trump despite being uh in the losing

category for the past month on the poly

Market forecast and so overall here what

we have found is that KLA Harris is in

fact receiving a debate bump while it

isn't something that would say KLA

Harris has guaranteed the presidency it

puts her closer to matching uh that

magic number of 270 whereas previously

it looked a little bit more difficult to

get to so I want to unpack the 538

forecast here showing KLA Harris with

nearly a 20% Delta between her and the

former president 60 to 40 is arguably a

position that Democrats would have

killed for a year ago and are probably

very happy that they're at this point

now but it's still not a point of

complacency but 60 to 40 does in fact

show a clear Advantage for one political

party over the other and in this case

that political party of course is the

Democratic party and we can take a look

too looking at the forecast over time

right up until this presidential debate

September 10th was debate day KLA Harris

was at 54% in terms of her odds

Nationwide and so in the immediate

aftermath of the debate it didn't look

like at least we were on track for an

uptick until New debate numbers so

showed differently the day after the

presidential debate her numbers stayed

roughly the same on the 12th they stayed

roughly the same but then our two new

sets of national polls came out showing

KLA Harris in a better position some new

Statewide polls and now today she has

inched up to a 60% chance of Victory

this November election and like I was

saying this has been driven by some

Battleground states that have

historically been very positive for the

Republican Party States like North

Carolina and Georgia and Arizona that

have started to Titan in a positive way

for KLA Harris and put her in a really

strong position when it comes down to

these Battleground States not to mention

States like Wisconsin showing her at a

64% chance of Victory States like

Michigan showing at a 61% chance of

Victory States like Pennsylvania showing

her a 56% chance of Victory because when

you take a look at some of these other

states Nevada for instance has KLA

Harris at 55 to 45 Arizona for instance

has her tied with Donald Trump 50 to

5050 Georgia has K Harris up narrowly 51

to 49 and North Carolina state that

Democrats really really want has her

tide against Donald Trump the overall

electoral map here and the math here is

strong for Democrats especially given

that this Advantage has now started to

increase right what it would look like

translating to an actual electoral map I

mean you're looking more at something

like this right taking away uh not even

taking away we haven't even given it yet

but not including Arizona which was a

Biden state in 2020 but if you include

Georgia and the State of Arizona I mean

chances are Democrats are set in this

election right they're at 292 electoral

votes uh give them Nevada give them

Colorado give them New Mexico give them

Georgia they're at 292 electoral votes

more than the magic number of 270 even

if you take away a state like Georgia

for instance Democrats still maintain at

276 and so Democrats really aren't in a

position where uh you know they're

losing nationally with the current 538

forecast and so a good example of this

would be a state like for instance that

prior to the debate Donald Trump was not

necessarily what I would call the Clear

favorite but was still in the advantage

right when you take a look at her

numbers now KLA Harris is at 51% but

right up until that debate the numbers

started to turn away from KLA Harris in

fact they're roughly at the highest

point they've ever been on the 538

forecast because from the beginning

Donald Trump has been in the advantage

on the moment they started tracking

these data points Donald Trump had a 59%

chance of Victory and you can see that

over time it started to Chip and Chip

and Chip and K Harris started to get

into a better position but even up until

that debate Donald Trump had a 54%

chance of Victory KLA Harris had just

46% across the state so Democrats now

with KLA Harris being in the advantage

in Georgia really only have the debate

to thank for that there hasn't been some

type of massive Reckoning on the

national scale as to uh you know who's

supporting Who besides the fact that

there are voters in the swayable states

that are changing their minds after

seeing KLA Harris's debate performance

not to mention that the national numbers

of course impact some of these down

ballot races if comml Harris tomorrow

was to win the national popular vote by

nine points she's winning Georgia and a

whole lot of other states if it's a

onepoint Advantage chances are she's

losing Georgia and a whole lot of other

states and so when you start to see

kamla Harris have a impact and a

positive one nationally it does

translate to down ballot residual

effects or uh swing state residual

effects where KLA Harris is starting to

do better and so I think this is

something that we have seen roughly

across the country right Arizona is now

50-50 whereas Donald Trump was in the

advantage North Carolina is 50-50

whereas Donald Trump was in the

advantage and the key Point here is the

word was because it is at this point

comml Harris at a 60 to 40 advantage

that puts her well within a reasonable

chance at winning almost all of these

Battleground States if she can do

everything correctly it's going to be

close and this feels a lot more like the

2012 election in terms of how close the

poll makes it actually feel but we will

see what the actual result ends up being

on Election night because it could feel

a lot like 2020 where we're waiting for

days for polls to be counted or for

votes to be counted or we waiting on

absentee ballots or waiting whatever it

might be we are in for the long run here

in this ction and things might not be

immediately clear because of how

competitive it is but the good news for

KLA Harris is that she is coming into

this after this debate using it to her

Advantage I mean think about the media

narrative and the media coverage so far

of Donald Trump since he decided that

he's not going to be running uh not

rather not going to running not going to

be debating any future debates right and

so the mainstream media has picked that

up the Democrats have started to turn

this into a Donald Trump's scared type

of moment they're even trying to bait

him back into a second debate trying to

uh poke and prod at his ego it might not

work it might work though we don't

really know what's going to happen with

that part but Donald Trump probably

isn't debating again which is good news

for KLA Harris because it means that he

has no real opportunity with all eyes on

him no re opportunity with you know a

focus on his candidacy or any of his

ideas or anything that he can say

directly to the people because between

now and election day it is nearly just

all crunch time it's about visiting

state to state to state to state to

Rally to Rally to Rally to Rally to

voter to voter to voter to voter to door

to door to door to door to election day

and so that's how it's going to be it's

going to be as fast-paced as I said it

because that's where we are this

election is so close to being over that

any type of bump in the scale here

benefiting KLA Harris is something that

will have an impact on this election

whether Republicans like it or not and

this debate was in fact that and so I

think we've seen a lot of the Republican

and the mainstream media from the

rightwing say that this has had no

positive impact for KL Harris that

nobody cares about this debate but what

we are seeing here in terms of the data

is in fact that there is a positive

impact now I touched briefly on the

betting markets and the money that KLA

Harris raised in the aftermath of the

debate and I have to say this right we

talked about how she raised $47 million

earlier on in this video but at the same

time we do need to understand that this

election has become so exceptionally

expensive I mean we saw that Forbes

before the 2024 election season got into

full gear we saw this last year I

covered it in 2023 they were projecting

you know billions of dollars being spent

across many many election races and

typically speaking right both candidates

in 2020 combined raised around a billion

dollars just off of Grassroots

organizing and small dollar donations

and so it was at that time that we

started to realize that this was at a

point of no return the amount of money

in politics was in fact going to be the

most important and driving factor of the

presidential race and for KLA Harris

she's winning that battle $47 million

after the debate matters right 47

million to spend in just seven

Battleground States when the Biden swing

state strategy from 2020 contained 10 11

12 Battleground States the Comm haris

campaign is investing in the states that

they need to invest in and focusing on

the states they need to focus on they

aren't using their money to spend in

states that don't make sense right

Donald Trump announcing just two days

ago that he's holding another rally in

the state of New York City I sorry in

the state of New York specifically in

New York City I mean we are at a point

where the Trump campaign isn't holding

as many rallies as KLA Harris or Tim

Walls whereas the Donald Trump campaign

sorry where it's the Comm Harris

campaign they're doing a significant

number of stops but they're also

investing in the states right when

Donald Trump goes to some of these

rallies like he did one in New Jersey

and he did another one in Bronx now he's

doing another one in New York City these

are things that don't help your

candidacy right voters in Pennsylvania

are not to in to your New York city

Rally they're not going to your New York

city Rally they're not making it up out

of the state it is important to note

that it is the most influential thing as

to where you spend your money in a

presidential Congressional gubernatorial

whatever it might be any race in

American politics where you spend your

money is how you win an election and so

for KLA Harris their campaign team seems

to be very tapped into the fact that

because they have so much money they can

really flood the airwaves in these

Battleground States they can expand the

number of field offices in States like

Pennsylvania Michigan Wisconsin Arizona

Georgia North Carolina and Nevada the

seven states that they are slated

starting after Labor Day they have

already started to spend over $250

million a quarter of a billion dollars

in advertisement spending on these

Battleground States they are drowning

Donald Trump in cash they are drowning

Donald Trump's campaign by outspending

and outpacing and out organizing and out

fundraising they are at a point too

where because of all the money they

raised up until that Democratic

Convention they could easily make it to

November without running out of money

even by investing in all of the states

they need to invest in so KLA Harris not

only now is building up where she is for

this election but potentially for a

future one I don't imagine there will be

that much money raised after the 2024

election but all I can say is this the

money that is being spent now and will

continue to be spent is being spent in

the states that matter KLA Harris's

campaign team knows where to invest and

it looks like they're using that seven

State strategy to win the election and I

genuinely believe it when I mean when I

say this that I believe it's going to

pay off based on where we are right now

based on what we've seen and how the

Democratic party has taken this debate

and boosted their odds at winning

nationally right taking the way that

Democrats have taken where they were in

some of these swing States and boosted

their odds in those and so what I think

has been just really really clear over

the past 6 months is that the Biden

Harris campaign turning into a Harris

walls campaign they knew what they were

doing they at least knew how to invest

their money and they knew how to raise

the money was the candidate at the top

of the ticket the person that was going

to bring them over the Finish Line with

Biden Harris chances are no that's why

Biden dropped out of the race but KLA

Harris very seemingly much can do it and

that's why you're starting to see people

when they watch her on the debate stage

when they watch her interact with former

president Trump when they watch her just

generally speaking at rallies right on

advertisements online they take a liking

to her we've seen her favorability

rating completely rebound ever since she

became the Democratic nominee right just

right before uh we saw the swap out

right around the time of July 15th we

saw that Donald Trump had a higher

favorability rating than that of KLA

Harris today that is absolutely not the

case in fact what we did see right

before she became the Democratic nominee

for president and was endorsed by Joe

Biden when he dropped out of the race

was that she hit one of her lowest

favorability ratings in the entire

history of her vice presidency so three

and a half years hitting almost her

lowest point right before she became the

Democratic nominee and now today she is

nearly tied even with her unfavorability

rating and favorability rating she was

down 15 20 points today she has narrowed

that up and that only happens because

the candidate at the top of the ticket

has a campaign team that knows how to

campaign that only happens when the

person at the top of the ticket receives

the support necessary to get across the

finish line or get exceptionally close

this election is no longer about the

less or two evil situation that it

turned into in the Biden versus Trump

matchup voters are inspired on the left

about kamla Harris in a way that they

were not inspired about Hillary Clinton

and in many ways even were not inspired

about Joe Biden in the 2020 election and

when we take a look at the political

betting markets who people believe are

going to win she actually wasn't doing

as well as she is doing today when you

take a look back at the history since

around the time of the democratic

convention around the time of the DNC

she started to see a bump but after that

it really started to dwindle poly Market

started to turn away from K Harris and

she ultimately never reached that

majority back up until today when we saw

her tick back up just actually yesterday

in fact so yesterday and today all

because of what the presidential debate

and when I take a look at the national

forecast with States like Georgia on the

538 forecast and North Carolina Within

Reach Arizona Within Reach it seems to

be a very realistic possibility that

based on what we're seeing in the data

that in this post debate bump should the

election be held today Comm Harris could

win 319 electoral votes that's a

non-insignificant number and that would

be a massive victory for vice president

Harris I mean that would be rewriting

the electoral map from the 2020 election

when Democrats have largely been focused

on playing defense right when we take a

look at those states that Democrats are

investing in with commet Harris it very

much is not taking anything for granted

they're focusing on Wisconsin Michigan

and Pennsylvania all states that Biden

won they're focusing on Arizona Georgia

and Nevada all states that Biden won and

the only swing state they're focusing on

that they lost in the 2020 election is

the state of North Carolina Democrats

aren't heavy investing in States like

Florida or Texas or Ohio or Iowa and in

a perfect world maybe they would be but

they are realizing to meet this moment

they need to solidify their base in

those seven Battleground states that

truly will determine the future of this

nation states like New Hampshire and

Virginia and Minnesota and Colorado and

New Mexico States the Democrats you know

Republicans rather would love to invest

in but aren't investing as much in as in

the seven Battleground States because

Democrats know they're going to win

there and so do Republicans too same

thing with Ohio and Iowa and Florida and

Texas Democrats would love to invest

there but Republicans know they're going

to win there so they don't need to spend

much money there and Democrats know

Republicans are going to win there even

in their perfect scenario they would be

winning there too and so KLA Harris's

debate performance doesn't exactly shake

up the race in a way that means all of a

sudden she has guaranteed the presidency

but what she did on that debate stage

was completely halted any conversation

around her momentum ending but rather

expanded on that momentum that came from

the announcement that came from the VP

announcement that came from the

convention and now is coming from the

debate and she's setting herself up to a

Pathway to Victory where she's gaining

in terms of overall odds her polling

numbers are starting to do better and

while I do believe in around a month I

wouldn't be shocked if we got sets of

polls that showed this race just as

close as it is today because I don't

think we're on track for k Harris to

have a blowout election I still believe

between now and November not much really

is going to change but there is in fact

a benefit of being up 60 to 40 instead

of 51 to 49 and KLA Harris's campaign

and herself will know this very well on

Election Day as the results come in as

we start to see what happens in these

Battleground States as we start to see

who's the eventual winner in the

presidential election because what we

know about our presidential race this

time is sure it absolutely is close but

when you are moving the needle even

slightly it matters when you look at

States like Georgia that would just

decided by 11,000 votes in the 2020

election when you take a look at States

like Arizona that were decided by

roughly a similar amount of electoral

votes when you take a look at States

like Pennsylvania that were decided by

just under a 100,000 votes in a state

with millions of Voters same thing in

Wisconsin same thing in Michigan you

know that every little moment good or

bad matters in a presidential election

and Democrats know that all too well and

so KL Harris right now expanding her

advantage on the National 538 forecast

isn't too much of a shock we saw in the

immediate aftermath that voters did

positively respond to KLA Harris's

debate performance but now we have the

actual quantifying numbers to prove that

the forecast here has improved for KLA

Harris and has set her up for a higher

chance of Victory than she has ever been

in the past two weeks which really goes

to show that this debate while seemingly

marginal on the grand scheme of things

actually does make an impact all in

favor of Vice President Harris so thank

you guys so much for watching this video

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