State of the U.S.-China relationship as countries compete economically | 60 Minutes
Summary
TLDR这个视频讲述了中国对美国企业的吸引力如何随着时间的推移而减弱。曾经,中国庞大的消费者市场吸引了无数美国公司,但现在知识产权盗窃、扩大的间谍法律和对商界的恐吓使得在中国经营变得充满风险。美国和中国的关系因北京对台湾和南中国海的激进行动、去年的间谍气球事件等问题而变得紧张。同时,中国经济遇到困境,出口增长放缓,债务累积,青年失业率飙升。虽然一些美国企业在中国取得了成功,如星巴克和波音,但许多外国公司对习近平领导下的商业环境感到担忧。视频还探讨了中国的长期人口和经济问题,以及美中在全球战略、安全和经济领域的竞争。
Takeaways
- 🇺🇸🇨🇳 美国公司因知识产权盗窃和对商界的恐吓使用扩大的间谍法而停止在中国的投资。
- 🚢 由于北京对台湾和南中国海的挑衅行为,以及去年的间谍气球事件,美中关系变得紧张。
- 💰 中国经济面临挑战,出口增长放缓,债务累积,青年失业率飙升。
- 🚫 许多西方记者难以进入中国报道这些问题,但美国大使尼古拉斯·伯恩斯的邀请为一个采访提供了机会。
- 🔒 尽管中国政府对外界宣称开放商业,但实际上对美国等国的企业进行了突击检查和关闭。
- 📉 中国经济增长放缓,许多经济学家预测未来增长率将降至2-4%。
- 📚 中国政府在试图平衡经济增长和对数据及信息的控制之间存在矛盾。
- 🏗️ 中国的房地产泡沫破裂,导致大量的未售出的空置房产和开发商的债务危机。
- 📈 尽管面临经济挑战,一些美国公司如迪士尼和Aptar仍在中国扩大投资。
- 🤖 中国在电动汽车和人形机器人产业方面快速发展,展现了技术创新和制造能力。
Q & A
为什么美国CEO们过去对中国充满憧憬?
-主要是因为中国巨大的消费者群体一直对他们有很强的吸引力。中国市场潜力巨大。
美国公司目前面临在中国做生意的主要困难和风险是什么?
-知识产权被盗窃,以及中国政府利用扩大的反间谍法来恐吓商业社区,这使得在中国做生意变得十分困难和有风险。
中美关系目前面临的主要紧张点有哪些?
-中国对台湾和南海地区越来越好战,去年的气球间谍事件,以及其他一系列问题都使中美关系变得更加紧张。
股本外流如何影响中国经济?
-股本外流使中国失去了重要的外国投资,这对中国经济增长至关重要。如果增长率大幅下降,将很难维持其社会。
中国如何看待股本外流问题?
-中国表面上还是希望吸引外资,但另一方面却在打击西方咨询公司,这让外国投资者感到困惑。
中国房地产泡沫是如何形成和破裂的?
-多年来,中国银行容易批出贷款,推动房地产建设蓬勃发展,但2020年政府收紧融资,导致主要开发商违约,无法获得资金,最终泡沫破裂。
房地产泡沫破裂对普通中国人有何影响?
-许多普通购房者可能永远无法收回首付的钱,他们面临巨大财富损失。
中国经济前景充满希望吗?
-中国仍有很强的制造业基础和创新人才基础,不应低估中国企业家和科技人员的潜力。中国有望在电动汽车、机器人等高科技领域取得进一步突破。
中美激烈竞争的根源是什么?
-两国体制和价值观念的差异。中美都想成为主导全球的强国。
与过去的冷战相比,当前的中美竞争有何不同?
-与当时苏联相比,中国拥有更强大的经济实力,是一个更强大的竞争对手。
Outlines
😟 美国企业在中国的挑战
随着中美关系的紧张,以及中国的经济下滑、知识产权盗窃和扩大的间谍法案等问题,美国企业对于在中国的业务持谨慎态度。尽管中国市场具有巨大吸引力,但政府的矛盾信息和对美国企业的突击检查使得美国投资者对未来持观望态度。美国大使尼古拉斯·伯恩斯在北京接受采访时讨论了这些挑战,并指出虽然有知识产权盗窃等问题,但还是有不少美国公司如沃尔玛、星巴克等在中国成功运营。
📉 中国经济放缓与国家控制加强
中国经济增长放缓,政府加强对数据和国家安全的控制,撤销了一些市场改革。这种变化导致了投资减少,同时也引发了对中国政府优先级的质疑。美国大使伯恩斯指出,尽管存在这些问题,但中国仍然是世界第二大经济体,对许多美国公司具有不可抵抗的市场吸引力。尽管如此,一些公司正将部分业务转移至其他国家,虽然他们没有完全离开中国市场。
🚨 美中关系的紧张与不确定性
美中之间的基本竞争和不信任加剧了商业界的不确定性,将双方关系推至半个世纪以来的最低点。大使伯恩斯提到,尽管美国与中国在多个领域存在竞争,但两国必须负责任地竞争并维持和平。他还强调了美中经济关系的复杂性,表明虽然存在竞争,但两国经济的紧密联系使得彻底切断关系不可行。
🏙️ 中国的房地产危机与经济挑战
中国房地产市场的崩溃导致了经济下滑,许多未完成的建筑项目被遗弃,造成了大量的“鬼城”。政府对开发商的严格贷款限制导致主要开发商违约,进一步加剧了经济衰退。此外,民众对于投资和消费的信心下降,进一步拖累了整体经济。
📈 中国经济的积极面与技术发展
尽管面临经济放缓和其他挑战,中国仍保持强大的制造业基础和创新能力。中国在某些技术领域如电动汽车和可再生能源领域取得领先,展示了其快速发展和创新的能力。同时,政府对电动汽车等高科技产业的重大投资显示了其转型和升级经济结构的决心。
🌏 美中全球竞争与未来展望
美国大使伯恩斯表达了对美中两国未来关系的担忧,特别是在军事和技术方面的竞争。他指出,两国之间存在根本的意识形态对立,这影响了全球经济和政治格局。尽管存在冲突,但他强调两国需要找到共存的方式,因为彼此经济和安全上的相互依赖不容忽视。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡中美关系
💡中国经济
💡台湾问题
💡知识产权
💡科技竞争
💡“脱钩”
💡人口结构
💡消费市场
💡制造业实力
💡威权主义
Highlights
美国CEO过去对中国趋之若鹜,其巨大的消费者群体几十年来一直具有巨大的吸引力
但是在中国开展业务已经变得非常困难和冒险,知识产权被盗用
扩大的间谍法被用来吓唬商业界
Transcripts
American CEOs used to Swoon over China
its vast pool of consumers has been a
magnetic draw for decades but doing
business there has become so fraught and
risky with intellectual property theft
and an expanded Espionage law used to
intimidate the business community that
us companies have pressed the pause
button on top of that the US China
relationship has become contentious due
partly to beijing's belligerent activity
toward Taiwan and in the South China Sea
the balloon spy incident of last year
and the list goes on making matters
worse the Chinese economy has hit a wall
export growth is slowing the country's
drowning in debt and youth unemployment
has
soared getting into China to tell that
story is All But but impossible for most
western journalists but when the US
ambassador Nicholas Burns invited us to
come for a visit and an interview we
were granted visas we spoke with him at
his residence in
Beijing the story will continue in a
moment more money is leaving China for
the first time in 40 years then is
coming in from American Japanese
European Korean investors now why is
that and how much of a problem is that
for them that's a real problem for this
economy they have 1.4 billion people
here they've got to keep it growing and
foreign capital is important you ask why
I think there's been a contradiction in
the messaging from the government here
in China to the rest of the world on the
one hand they say we're open for
business we want American CH Japanese
businesses here but on the other hand
they've rated six or seven American
businesses since last March raid rated
they've gone into American companies and
shut them down and made accusations We
Believe are very much unwarranted the
American companies include banan company
and the mince group a company that does
due diligence for other companies that
might want to invest here was raid last
year five of its Chinese employees were
taken into
and they're still there another firm cap
Vision was raid L the message wasn't
loud and clear a report about it was put
on statun
television it accused Western consulting
firms of Espionage and stealing National
Security and Military Secrets they want
the investment to come back and they're
raiding American companies and their
they've passed an amendment to their
counter Espionage law and it's written
in such a general way that it could be
that American Business people could be
accused of Espionage for engaging in
practices that are perfectly legal and
acceptable everywhere else in the world
collecting data to do deal diligence so
that you can decide whether you want to
invest in a company or form a joint
venture right what do you think the
Chinese are afraid that these companies
are going to find out these due
diligence
companies what are they work you know I
think they want to control data about
the Chinese people about Chinese
companies and so U that I think is at
the heart of the problem with those
American companies operating in that
sphere Ambassador Burns told us that's
just one of the concerns he hears about
there is still intellectual property
theft from American companies here is
every American company afraid of that
yes all kinds of us companies began
flocking to China in the early 198 80s
after the country opened to the West
under then leader dong sha ping and now
US banks operate here Walmart has more
than 300 stores across the country
Shoppers here in Shanghai can buy Levis
browse in an Apple store and get a
caramel frappuccino Starbucks has 6,000
stores in China a th000 stores in
Shanghai and they want to keep building
because coffee this was a tea culture
for hundreds of years it's now becoming
at least with the young Chinese a coffee
culture and and they love Starbucks they
love Starbucks and I'll buy you a
cappuccino I'll take one thank you
Boeing's here so is Tesla fizer Chevron
Intel but while some businesses are
thriving many of the foreign companies
are worried about the business climate
under President Xi Jinping if you track
China from the death of ma to the
opening of China to the world we've seen
a closing of sorts we've seen a
centralization of power of the party
we've seen increased repression of the
people of China here that's a very
significant Trend just over the last
decade with she under his leadership
part of that Trend includes president
she's reversing many of the market
reforms that unleash China's economic
Miracle they've been growing over 40
years the fastest growth rate in
recorded economic history 8 n 10 11%
growth rates they've lifted 800 million
people out of poverty but what's
happening is that growth rate is slowing
down most economists are now projecting
they'll be at 2 three 4% growth maybe
even lower in the next they support
their society if it's that low that's
going to be difficult for them if there
was so much explosive growth if so many
people were lifted out of poverty why is
he turning away from what worked well I
think they've got maybe competing
priorities the government here in China
certainly wants the economy to grow but
they also have a national security
mindset they want to control data they
want that's more important the control
right than economic growth it seems that
way I think it's open for debate you're
hearing we are hearing both men messages
it sounds as if you yourself don't know
the direction it's going what I perceive
here is that the greater energy is with
those on the National Security side of
the government of China good morning how
are you on a train trip from Beijing to
Shanghai the Ambassador pointed out that
in the decades before President XI China
powered its economy by investing in
these high-speed
trains roads
factories and skyscrapers that light up
Shanghai the financial capital of China
but under President XI China lost more
than $120 billion worth of long-term
foreign investments last year because of
the weakening economy and the harsh
government tactics which have left
American companies uncertain of the
future there there are a lot of American
companies here have a lot of them just
picked up and let because of this
current business environment you know
that's interesting not many not many not
many why not China is the second largest
economy in the world it's a big market
so a few American companies have left
but most have stayed some American
companies are moving at least some of
their operations to Singapore Vietnam
Mexico but they're not leaving China the
market irresistible to American Business
bus people it's gigantic maybe they're
not leaving but they're not investing
they're not making major Investments
until they can see exactly where the
government is headed yet because of the
1.4 billion potential consumers some
companies like Disney are increasing
their investment welcome to Shanghai
Disney Resort it recently expanded its
Shanghai Disneyland that they told us is
thriving and aptar A9 billion company
headquartered in Crystal Lake Illinois
is another American firm bucking the
trend of capital flight president of
aptar Asia shangu gang a chinese-born US
citizen showed us around one of their
five manufacturing sites in China we are
manufacturing for some of the largest US
Brands actually the US consumer Brands
this factory makes the packaging and
dispensing devices for food
pharmaceutical and beauty products sold
in Asia all our customers like PNG laa
esela they're all here doing business
abtar in China for nearly 30 years
recently invested $60 million in a new
Factory shangu gang says even in a
slowing economy the company is doing
well American companies here as the
Ambassador well knows are pausing or
cutting back on investment but not this
firm you're expanding well um because we
are here for the long term and we
believe in the consumption Power Of The
Rising middle class it's 1.4 billion
people here and um imagine for for
example health care and the same with um
cosmetics and beauty and um beverage all
all those sectors packaged Foods these
are really the biggest market and so so
we are very confident about uh the long
term what does it say about the
confidence really in the US China
relationship it it seems to say you
believe that that things will what I'm
asking get
better that's a great question for the
Ambassador I believe so I hope so you
know we'll see actually burn says he's
wary of the future as the fundamental
rivalry and mistrust between the US in
China is shaking the confidence of the
business world and has pushed our
relationship to its lowest point in half
a century is it our most competitive
relationship in the world right now this
is the most important most competitive
and most dangerous relationship that the
United States has in the world right now
and will I think for the next decade or
so I want to quote you back to you and
tell us what you meant you have said
divorce is not an
option right our two countries have to
live together and this I think is the
greatest tension in the US China
relationship China's our most
significant competitor and at the same
time China is our third largest trade
partner 750,000 American jobs at stake
agriculture China's the largest market
for us agriculture oneth of all of our
export a products from agriculture are
sent to China that was $4.9 billion last
year so we can't afford really to have a
real break here well it's complicated
jobs would it's complicated some people
are saying well we're so competitive
with China we should end the economic
relationship well the consequence of
that would be 750,000 American families
wouldn't be able to put dinner on the
table and so this makes for an
extraordinarily difficult Balancing Act
in my job you're a Linda brother I've
never thought of myself that way but
you're up high wire right well we have
competing interests here and balancing
those interests is the reality in the US
China relationship we're going to
compete we have to compete responsibly
and keep the peace between our countries
but we also have to
engage more about The Balancing Act and
the biggest economic problem in China
today when we come
back
one and every five people in the world
is Chinese China's population is four
times that of the US and the country is
vast 3.7 million square miles it
overlooks the Taiwan straight where half
the World's Trade flows every day and is
located about 100 100 miles away from
Taiwan President XI likes to say that
the East is rising the West is declining
but economically the US is thriving
compared to China in December Moody the
credit rating agency cut its outlook for
China to negative and it's facing a
long-term demographic bind a decline in
the birth rate that experts say is
irreversible meaning the country is both
both aging and
shrinking Ambassador Nicholas Burns took
us on a tour starting in
Beijing the story will continue in a
moment the Ambassador and his wife Libby
like to take early morning walks through
a park near their
[Music]
residence this is a 600-year old Ming
Dynasty Park called Ron Park it's a
place for a lot of retirees and a lot of
young people and it's tremendously
active it's where the locals come for
their early morning
routines like Tai Chi
yo-yoing and
pingpong oops
[Laughter]
T you couldn't tell from these scenes
whoa that China where the covid pandemic
began is still emerging from the trauma
of President XI jinping's oppressive
zeroo
policy Burns 68 a career Diplomat who
has served in both Republican and
Democratic administrations got to China
at the height of the zero covid
lockdowns and quarantines when my wife
Libby and I arrived here in early March
of 2022 we were quarantine in this house
for 21 days for 3 weeks Shanghai a city
of 26 million people was completely
locked down for 63 days what was that
like in the city we had women who needed
to give birth and we had to find a way
to get them to the hospital we had
Americans who wanted to get out but had
to find a way out of their locked
compounds to the airport so zero Co
worked for a while in 20 and 21 they had
very low or Rel relatively lower
infection rates but by 2022 it had
really divided this Society it set off
rare widespread protests then in
December of 2022 president XI ended the
policy abruptly the last thing this
government is going to accept here is
volatility volatility is something yorg
woodka a German businessman who's lived
and worked in China for over 30 years
hadn't seen since the tianan square
Square Uprising in
1989 he represents
BASF the world's largest chemical
producer you have said this is a PTSD
country post-traumatic stress disorder
country what what do you mean well
everybody has been traumatized by the
lockdowns that took place in many cities
across China and the kind of messaging
that came out of the leadership it's for
your own safety and then the lockdown
was lifted actually it was more a
capitulation from the government the
lockdown basically left and like aam we
were wrong we're going to lift it they
never said they were wrong that's not
the system this admit that they did
something wrong and then you basically
like a tsunami Co was rolling across the
country after they lifted it uh December
January I would say a billion people
were infected and certainly lots of
people died independent analysts say
that an estimated 1.4 million people
died this kind of environment really
Chang changes your attitude towards life
and in business we thought we're going
to have a comeback story and we had a
good couple of weeks and then the
economy basically has been fled since
you know after covid in the west in the
United States particularly we did have a
huge quick rebound Why didn't it happen
here well I think that Co also has
covered up a couple of long-term
problems that China has been building up
for example in the real estate sector we
reported on the real estate sector 10
years ago with astonishing sites like
this of empty buildings in city after
city across the
country this is today similar hollowed
out wastelands of unoccupied and
unfinished Apartments known as ghost
cities when I was here 10 years ago I
never expected to see these building
still here but was a housing bubble back
then grew and finally
exploded this real estate crisis lies at
the heart of China's economic decline
has anybody counted up the number of
empty units I mean across the whole
country well the whole of Germany we
have 82 million people could move in
here right away 80 80 to 90 million
apartments are empty 80 to 90 million
apartments are empty right unfinished
over the years Chinese Banks readily
loan money to the developers as the
building boom created millions of jobs
and propelled China's growth but in 2020
the government under President XI
clamped down on the rampant borrowing
causing the major developers to default
on their loans and run out of money look
at that the facade isn't even finished
he says they couldn't even afford to
take down the
cranes in January ever Grand once
China's largest developer was ordered to
liquidate its remaining
assets left in the Lurch are millions of
Chinese citizens who bought these
apartments before they were built the
developers owe their uh customers that
paid up uh to the magnitude of1 trillion
us so if I did a down payment on one of
these apartments right will I ever see
that money no you will not see the money
it's gone it's finished is finished so I
mean it's it's really dramatic 10 years
ago we were told that this was the way
people put money down for their nest EG
right for their retirement fund is that
still the case the 66% 23 of a Family
household average wealth is in in
apartments that loss of wealth has
depressed consumer spending and drag
down the economy we wondered if the
people blame president XI for that or
for the covid deaths but it was
impossible for us to gauge public
opinion or if it even matters while no
one from the government would give us an
interview we were able to learn as yorg
woodka who's lived here for 30 years
told us it's not a good idea to bet
against the Chinese people what are some
of the positive aspects of the economy
here they do have a strong uh
manufacturing base still well the big
part is really between the ears of
people the brains of the Chinese
entrepreneurs that actually made this
success story happen China is not really
good in basic research but they're
fantastic in development they're world
champion in actually making products
better faster and cheaper are they
better yes they are in some areas our
Chinese competitors are breathing down
our neck and basically Drive some of us
out the market for instance China now
makes over 80% of all the solar panels
in the world dominates the winter
turbine Market is poised to overtake
Japan as the world's biggest exporter of
cars and more they're the leading trade
partner of twice as many countries in
the world as the United States so they
have leading trade partner with over 60
countries in the world and now with
heavy government subsidies it is fast
becoming the leader in electric vehicles
last quarter the car maker byd surpassed
Tesla as the bestselling EV maker in the
world Shanghai based Neo is trying to
break through with high-tech
Innovations in December the company
unveiled a new battery with a driving
range of 620 miles more than 200 M
further than Tesla's topend model this
is this is our Flagship William Lee the
CEO and founder of Neo says its battery
swap technology
allows owners to swap out their depleted
battery for a fully charged one in under
3 minutes exactly it's a uh two and a
half minutes two and a half minut and a
half yes we already installed
2,200 swap station around
China China is also developing a
humanoid robot
industry look at that after lot of year
it's true Alex goo is the founder and
CEO of forier intelligence hi there last
year he launched the gr1 his first
generation
humanoid we can do arm you can swing the
arm yeah you see oh look at the fingers
oh my
word can you play the piano yeah future
definitely in the future also in the
future he says the robots could provide
health care for China's rapidly aging
population maybe we can for example we
can remote control such kind of robots
to help my grandpa for example yeah I
think president XI who visited this
company last year has called for the
mass production of humanoids by
2025 in his annual New Year's speech he
talked about the country's economic woes
and for the first time acknowledged the
high unemployment rate still he has laid
out a long-term goal of doubling China's
economy by
2035 and surpassing the West in
technology our companies and Tech
experts are competing on AI and biotech
and Quantum mathematics all those
technological advances will lead to a
new generation of military technology
our two militaries are vying for
military Supremacy who's going to be the
most powerful in the most important
strategic part of the world which is the
Indo
Pacific presidents Biden and she met in
San Francisco in November in hopes of
reestablishing military Communications
between our two countries which China
had cut off I think we're back to a more
settled and stable relationship between
the two countries but it's been a roller
coaster the low point he says was the
Spy balloon incident last year but
there's also been the buildup of
military bases in the South China Sea
the increase of air sorties near Taiwan
and the buzzing of US military planes do
you see a lowering of the temperature in
the South China Sea no and that's a
problem you don't and then on Taiwan
following speaker Pelosi's visit we've
seen now for 16 months a much higher
rate of Chinese both air activity and
Naval activity that's very intimidating
meant to intimidate that hasn't the taiw
they haven't pulled back on that and I
think ultimately they want to become and
overtake the United States as the
dominant country globally and we don't
want that to happen we don't want to
live in a world where the Chinese are
the dominant country when the Cold War
ended we all thought our system had won
yeah you know their system failed our
system rose up now he's come back and
said no no the Communist system is the
right way I guess we didn't bury that
after all you know it's it's interesting
to compare the old cold war with this
time what distinguishes this time versus
the old Cold War Soviet Union had a
strong military and nuclear weapons it
had a very weak economy which in no way
competed with ours China's economy is
very strong we're dealing with an
adversary a competitor in China stronger
than the Soviet Union was in the 1940s
50s 60s 7s and ' 80s so if that was a
Cold War what are you calling this it's
a competition of ideas a battle of ideas
our idea America's big idea of a
Democratic Society and human Freedom
versus China's idea that a communist
state is stronger than a democracy we
don't believe that
so there's a battle here as to whose
ideas should lead the world and we
believe those are American
ideas up and get married Leslie stall on
witnessing China change while reporting
for 60 minutes this was different from
the other times I've been there
reporting at 60 minutes overtime.com
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