Supply Chains 2022: Problems and Solutions
Summary
TLDR在这段访谈中,IEEE会员Tom Coughlin讨论了2022年供应链面临的主要问题及其解决方案。他指出,新冠疫情对供应链产生了重大影响,导致工厂关闭和运输人员短缺。Coughlin强调了供应链的相互依赖性和脆弱性,并预测了2022年的不确定性。他提出了一些可能的长期趋势,包括在地生产、自动化和区块链技术的使用,这些都可能改变供应链管理。尽管面临挑战,Coughlin对2023年的技术发展和人机协作的积极前景持乐观态度。
Takeaways
- 😷 2022年供应链面临的主要问题是新冠疫情的持续影响,包括工厂关闭和运输人员不足。
- 🔗 供应链的相互依赖性使得全球各地的生产和消费更加脆弱,容易受到疫情等因素的影响。
- 🌐 疫情可能导致供应链的不确定性,例如新的病毒变种可能对来年的供应链产生影响。
- 🔄 长期问题可能包括供应链的重构,比如更多地在本国生产而不是从其他地方进口。
- 🤖 自动化的趋势可能会加速,包括工厂和物料处理,包括运输方面的自动化。
- 🚗 特定行业,如汽车行业,可能会因为芯片和半导体的短缺而经历重大变化。
- 📈 供应链拥堵问题可能会在2022年继续,特别是在第一季度,受疫情影响工人的可用性。
- 🔄 分布式账本或区块链技术在控制供应链方面将发挥重要作用,有助于提高供应链的透明度和效率。
- 🏭 制造更多关键组件的本地化可能是一个长期趋势,受到政治推动和供应链问题的影响。
- 🌟 技术的发展和实施,以及人与机器之间的互动,将是2023年及以后的积极发展方向。
- 🤝 人机协作将提升制造能力,AI和自动化不仅替代人力,还将增强人的能力,使人类和机器更自然地协同工作。
Q & A
2022年供应链面临的主要问题是什么?
-供应链面临的主要问题包括新冠疫情的持续影响、生产和运输的中断、以及全球生产和消费的高度依赖性。
哪些问题可能在短期内得到解决,哪些可能是长期存在的?
-短期内可能会解决的是由于疫情导致的劳动力短缺和运输延迟问题,而长期存在的问题可能包括供应链的整体调整和生产自动化的推进。
你认为疫情会对供应链产生什么样的长期影响?
-疫情可能会促使更多产品在本地生产而非依赖全球供应链,同时推动工厂和运输过程中的自动化进程。
如何看待区块链技术在供应链中的应用前景?
-区块链技术可以通过分布式账本和唯一标识来提高供应链的可追溯性和透明度,从而快速发现和解决问题。
2022年供应链拥堵问题会持续多长时间?
-预计2022年第一季度供应链拥堵问题仍会持续,尤其是由于疫情引起的劳动力短缺和运输问题。
你对2022年供应链的整体前景持乐观态度吗?
-尽管面临许多挑战,但随着技术的发展和供应链的调整,我对2022年的供应链前景持谨慎乐观态度。
如何通过技术手段解决供应链问题?
-通过实施自动化、区块链技术和人工智能,可以提高供应链的效率和可靠性,减少对人工的依赖并增强供应链的灵活性。
你认为未来供应链的变化将会如何影响制造业?
-制造业可能会更加依赖自动化和本地化生产,以减少对全球供应链的依赖,同时通过技术手段提高生产效率。
IEEE在技术进步方面的目标是什么?
-IEEE致力于推动技术的进步,特别是在自动化、区块链和人工智能等领域,以解决供应链面临的挑战。
你认为供应链的数字化转型将带来哪些变化?
-数字化转型将提高供应链的连接性和信息处理能力,促进自动化和技术应用,从而提高供应链的整体效率和应变能力。
Outlines
🌐 2022年供应链面临的挑战及解决方案
在这段对话中,Tom Coughlin,IEEE的研究员,讨论了2022年供应链面临的主要问题,特别是新冠疫情对供应链的持续影响。Tom指出,由于疫情,工厂关闭和运输人员的短缺导致了供应链的脆弱性。他提到,供应链的相互依赖性使得全球各地的生产和消费更加紧密地联系在一起,这在面对疫情等危机时显得尤为脆弱。Tom还讨论了供应链问题的短期和长期影响,以及可能的解决方案,比如在本国生产更多商品以减少对外部的依赖,以及增加自动化和使用区块链技术来提高供应链的透明度和效率。他还提到了半导体行业的短缺问题,以及这些挑战可能持续的时间。
🚀 技术进步与供应链的未来
在第二段对话中,讨论了技术进步如何帮助解决供应链问题。Tom强调了区块链和人工智能等新兴技术在未来供应链管理中的潜在作用,尽管这些技术还处于起步阶段,但它们有望在未来几年内实现其全部效益。他还提到了数字转型的重要性,以及如何通过更智能的连接和自动化来改进业务流程。Tom认为,尽管2021年带来了一些挑战,但它也为我们提供了实施这些技术以应对未来问题的动力。他还讨论了重新本土化生产的趋势,以及这可能如何影响供应链的结构和运作。
🤖 人工智能与自动化在供应链中的应用
在最后一段对话中,Tom讨论了人工智能和自动化如何使人类与机器更自然地协同工作。他提到,通过AI的解读能力,可以使机器更安全地与人类一起工作,并通过使用更柔软的材料来增强人机交互。Tom认为,通过结合人类的判断力和机器的操作能力,我们可以提高生产效率并创造新的价值。他还表达了对2022年及以后供应链发展的乐观态度,强调了技术发展和人机协作的潜力。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡供应链
💡新冠疫情
💡自动化
💡分布式账本
💡芯片短缺
💡在地化生产
💡供应链拥堵
💡人工智能
💡量子计算
💡数字化转型
Highlights
2022年供应链面临的主要问题是新冠疫情的持续影响,导致工厂关闭和运输人员短缺。
供应链的相互依赖性使得全球生产和消费的分布变得脆弱。
2022年初,新冠疫情的新变种给供应链带来了不确定性。
供应链问题可能长期存在,但某些问题如疫情影响可能会逐渐消退。
远程通信和生产方式的变化可能会成为供应链管理的新常态。
供应链问题和政治问题可能导致更多产品在本国生产而非从其他地方进口。
自动化在工厂和物流运输中的使用可能会因疫情而加速发展。
半导体和芯片短缺问题可能会有长期影响,需要时间来解决。
2022年供应链拥堵问题可能会持续,尤其是在第一季度。
区块链技术在供应链管理中的应用将发挥重要作用。
半导体行业的变革需要时间,因为建立新工厂和提高产量需要数月时间。
IEEE致力于推动技术进步,但技术解决方案并非一蹴而就。
区块链和人工智能等技术的发展需要多年时间才能实现其全部效益。
技术发展,如量子计算,将与人类合作,改变未来的工作方式。
公司可能会将生产重新安排到风险较低的国家,如从中国转移。
长期趋势可能包括更多关键组件的本地生产以及更多技术的应用。
尽管2021年充满挑战,但对2022年持乐观态度,期待技术发展和人机交互的进步。
Transcripts
[Music]
supply chains 2022 problems and
solutions my guest is tom coughlin he's
a fellow with ieee hi tom
hello there robert how are you good
thank you so much for taking the time to
speak with me uh you know so what are
just some in general some of the major
issues that supply chains are facing as
we head into 2022
well i mean a big issue is going to be
uh how covet is going to continue to
impact the supply chain obviously the
last couple of years 2020 2021 it's had
a big impact factory has been shut down
people have not been available for
shipping products from various places
and the other part of it is of course
that we are so interdependent between uh
things made in one place and consumed in
another or
sub-assemblies being made in one place
in the assembly happening somewhere else
that
you know it makes us vulnerable to some
of these issues
um
looking at at least right now looking
into 2020 2022
um it seems like at least at the
beginning we're we're running into
uncertainty at least that uh
with the latest strain of covid that
could be impacting supply chains coming
into the next year yeah i'm wondering
though of all the problems that we've
we've seen
maybe we can separate into
short-term versus long-term i mean which
problems do you think might be more
likely to go away if any of them they
could all be uh permanent or long-term
but which ones might we expect to be
longer lasting and which ones might be
resolved earlier do you have a sense of
that
well there's a number of things going on
i think and part of it's probably a
response to the current situation uh
people you know if if if we go beyond
the pandemic people can to some extent
are probably gonna go back to the way
that they did things before in terms of
their supply chain
but on the other hand i think that just
like in like what we're doing right now
you know we're communicating remotely
you know we're not together that there's
gonna be uh changes in the way in which
uh people do supply
um you know creation and supply of of
things and where they make things and
where they ship them to
um i think we might see things like it
could lead to some
both
both the supply chain issue and also
some political issues could lead to for
instance more things being made in
country rather than being shipped from
somewhere else um also i think we could
see long-term trends in terms of
automation
uh more automation being used for both
in factories and also material handling
including transportation there's you
know it may accelerate some of the
trends that already been uh been started
in that area and then i think that
there's specialized cases uh like the
automotive shortages and chips and
semiconductors in general that uh there
may be uh there may be significant
changes in you know that could result
from our experience in the pandemic
now is anyone's guess as to how long
some of these problems are going to last
obviously but when it comes to supply
chain congestion we're starting to hear
about there's some sign of relief at
southern california ports in terms of
the backlog of containers but it still
is a pretty serious problem
do you have a sense of what do you think
how much of 2022 are we going to be
experiencing this continuing congestion
and slow down to the movement of
products and containers and cargo
through the supply chain well it
certainly seems like at the uh
in the first quarter we're going to see
continue to see some impact of that
especially with uncertainty iran cobit
you know impacting the availability of
workers
and and of uh
you know if if people on board a ship
get sick or if people get sick
on land you know there may be shortages
of workers things like that could still
be happening it's unclear just how bad
you know this one's going to be
um so i think there's uncertainty there
uh
i uh a lot of these changes that i was
talking about um you know i mean there's
one more i didn't mention which relates
somewhat to the sp it certainly relates
to supply chain relate somewhat to the
shortages and that of course is the use
of you know distributed ledgers or
blockchain technology for controlling
supply chains right you know which is
also going to play an important role but
um automation there's already i think
things that are going have been going on
there that probably be accelerated by
this trend uh
uh onshoring again of making some things
there's things trends that have been
going on there which are going to
beginning in 2022 for instance in the
semiconductor industry
it takes a while though to to make some
of these things happen because there's a
many many months to build new plants
sure
and to uh uh get them online and and
getting at the manufacturing at yields
so
you know we're i think 2022 is still
going to be
at least the first half is going to be a
rough a rough year and for some areas
like um in the automotive space it looks
like they're going to they're not even
going to meet
the
manufacturing capability at least in the
u.s that they had in 2019 until next
year until 2023 excuse me well you know
ieee is an organization dedicated to the
advancement of technology in many
different aspects so i'm sure we'd like
to see that go forward but it's not an
instant solution is it i mean you're
talking about blockchain which is still
a nascent technology a.i which is still
kind of finding it's finding its feet
you know and so this isn't something
that's going to like wipe the board
clean in 2022 we're talking about years
of of before this really realizes it's
its full benefits right yeah i think
well i think what uh 2021 2020 is give
us additional impetus
um
to uh to be uh implementing some of
these technologies you know to help deal
with these issues in the future but yes
it takes it takes many years for people
to uh you know to make transformations
like this in a sense this is all related
to the ongoing digital transformation of
a lot of businesses right moving from
older analog or not not
well-connected processes to processes
that are more you know connected that
include
a lot more processing of information
may include automation a lot more
automation things like that i think
again it's accelerating that but these
are multi-year processes
um you know there's infrastructure that
may be put in place like for some of
these uh things
they will be advantageous to have
advanced wireless networking services
available and those are coming online
but they're not there yet so you think
that you know maybe some of this
technology do you think it will actually
provide us
with a solution to the mess or just
visibility into the mess
i think both you know um like that's one
of the things about uh about using
distributed ledgers is that if
everything is essentially uniquely
identified and you can easily find the
provenance of things
we could discover
issues maybe faster it'd be easier to
track and find out where there's
problems at um where you're having to
build new infrastructure and
and equipment or
build whole new factories and that sort
of thing that takes some time you know
these are multi-year processes to
undergo and the thing is that the
technology is continually evolving you
know when you talk about ai we've got ai
today but we're going to have additional
capabilities in the future
new types of computing coming online
which can include like quantum computing
things of that sort which you know these
are and these new computing technologies
are good for certain things not
necessarily for everything but they they
will tran a lot of these together with
with the humans they work with i think
working together can transform the way
that we do work um in the future
you alluded earlier to the possibility
of companies resourcing or i don't i
don't know if you would use the read
word reshoring because that means
actually bringing manufacturing back the
united states as opposed to putting it
somewhere else
less risky than china
do you see that as a permanent thing and
what what kind of sourcing changes might
we see in in not not just in 2022 but
beyond
so i think if re successful reshoring
probably will involve a lot more
automation a lot more technology
that's going to be a key to making that
happen
and
i do see that there's probably a long
term trend for that or
maybe for being able to make
more more critical components locally
and again there's some political reasons
why this is being pushed as well as you
know issues supply chain issues
um and so i do see that as a very
important factor that there's going to
be a lot more stuff made closer to where
it's manufactured probably as a result
of this in other words the whole idea of
supply chains you know we're still going
to have a global supply chain we're
going to have things made in different
areas
but i think it's going to be a lot
there's going to be pressure for a lot
more local content in a lot of these
products which may help in dealing with
with future issues like potentially
dealing with future issues like this and
a lot more technology involved to make
that happen
tom at the end of 2020 we're also
relieved that year was over and 21 was
here and it was going to be so much
better and of course it turned out in
many cases not to be the case in fact
quite the opposite would you call
yourself an optimist about 2022 do you
think that in general that this might be
a better year i'm asking you an
impossible question of course i just
want to get your sense personally of how
you feel the future the the short-term
future stacks up for supply chains
i'm kind of a professional optimist in
the sense that i always look for you
know look for the opportunities and look
for
you know the silver linings no matter
how dark things look and i think that
there's a there's a lot of things that i
that i believe will be positive going
into 2023 in terms of the development of
technology its implementation
and um
movements towards creating advantageous
uh
interactions between man and machine you
know you know this is not just replacing
people i think but it's also augmenting
people's capability by the use of
artificial intelligence devices and
automation
um you know and
beyond just uh
you know
where do we do the manufacturing it's
going to be how do we do the
manufacturing um i think there's a bit a
big push towards making uh human and
machine interactions more natural
for not just segregating automation in
this area
but actually making it so that it's safe
to work with human beings which ai i
think makes that happen by being able to
interpret what people do gestures things
of that sort and um and making them out
of softer materials where they might
interact with human beings yeah where
humans and machines can work can work
more naturally better together and i
think that gives us new capabilities of
using the things that we're good at you
know uh
you know making value judgments
um
you know uh
the the things that that human that
humans can do that machines can't do
machines are really good at operations
they're really good at doing something
they're told to do but they can't figure
out what that should be necessarily
whereas we say well this is the thing
you should be doing not this and then we
can help them make to make those things
happen and if you can do that now
for now
well we could certainly do with a dash
of optimism for 2022. tom coughlin of
ieee thank you so much for spending a
little time with me here to talk about
the possible future and maybe shine a
little bit of possible light on the
subject as well thanks for being with me
really appreciate it
thank you robert you take care and have
a great new year thank you
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