The Story of Concord's Failure Goes Much Deeper.
Summary
TLDRThe video discusses the controversy surrounding the game 'Concord', developed by Firewalk Studios under Probably Monsters. It delves into the $400 million claim, the acquisition by Sony, and the studio's financial backing. The narrative explores the industry's live service model, the challenges faced by Sony's gaming strategy, and the implications of venture capital in game development. It also touches on the potential synergies with Bungie and the future of Firewalk Studios post-acquisition.
Takeaways
- 💬 The game 'Concord' developed by Firewalk Studios has been surrounded by controversy and claims of a $400 million development cost.
- 🔥 There's speculation about a 'toxic positivity' culture at Firewalk Studios that may have hindered the development of 'Concord'.
- 🤔 The game director of 'Concord' reportedly self-demoted, adding to the turmoil surrounding the project.
- 💸 Sony's acquisition of Firewalk Studios is part of a bigger picture involving financial incentives and the business of game development.
- 🕵️♂️ The story of Firewalk Studios and 'Concord' is deeply connected to Harold Ryan, founder of Probably Monsters, and his history in the gaming industry.
- 💼 Probably Monsters, founded by Ryan, received significant venture capital funding and was involved in the development of 'Concord'.
- 📉 The gaming industry, like other sectors, is not immune to economic fluctuations, which can impact studio acquisitions and game development.
- 🔄 The process of game development involves stages like pre-production and full production, with different levels of investment required at each stage.
- 🏭 Sony's acquisition of Firewalk Studios might be a strategic move to gain control over the development process and talent, rather than just a publishing deal.
- 🔄 The business model of venture capital-backed studios like Probably Monsters involves building games, finding publishers, and potentially selling the studio for returns on investment.
Q & A
What is the main topic of the video script?
-The main topic of the video script is the acquisition of Firewalk Studios by Sony and the controversy surrounding the development costs of the game Concord, which is rumored to have cost $400 million.
What is 'toxic positivity' as mentioned in the script?
-Toxic positivity refers to a work culture where negative feedback is discouraged, potentially leading to the failure to address serious issues, as allegedly happened at Firewalk Studios during the development of Concord.
What is the significance of the $400 million figure mentioned in the script?
-The $400 million figure is significant because it represents the rumored total cost of developing the game Concord, which has sparked discussions about the efficiency and financial decisions in the gaming industry.
Who is Colin Morar and why is his tweet significant?
-Colin Morar is a person who tweeted about the issues at Firewalk Studios, claiming that the development of Concord cost $400 million. His tweet is significant because it went viral and brought attention to the alleged financial mismanagement and the culture at the studio.
What is the role of Harold Ryan in the narrative?
-Harold Ryan is a key figure in the narrative as he is the founder of Probably Monsters, the parent company of Firewalk Studios. He has a history of working in the gaming industry, including a tenure as CEO of Bungie.
Why did Sony acquire Firewalk Studios?
-Sony acquired Firewalk Studios for several reasons, including their desire to own the intellectual property of Concord, the potential synergy with Bungie (a company Sony had previously acquired), and the strategic move to have more control over the development of games that fit their live service plans.
What is the business model of Probably Monsters?
-The business model of Probably Monsters involves building teams to create games, then either running the games internally or securing deals such as acquisitions or publishing contracts. The goal is to leverage venture capital funding to develop games and then sell the studios or secure publishing deals to generate returns.
What does the term 'incubation teams' refer to in the context of Probably Monsters?
-Incubation teams in the context of Probably Monsters refer to smaller, early-stage development teams focused on creating game concepts and prototypes. These teams are part of the pre-production phase before scaling up for full production.
Why might the acquisition of Firewalk Studios by Sony be seen as a positive move for Probably Monsters?
-The acquisition of Firewalk Studios by Sony could be seen as positive for Probably Monsters because it allows them to offload the financial burden of full-scale production, which is costly and risky. It also provides a return on their venture capital funding and allows them to focus on other projects.
What is the significance of the game Helldivers 2 in the discussion?
-Helldivers 2 is significant in the discussion because it serves as a comparison to Concord. It shows that an exclusive publishing deal can be successful without the need for a full studio acquisition, which raises questions about Sony's decision to buy Firewalk Studios.
What are the implications of the Concord development story for the gaming industry?
-The Concord development story implies that the gaming industry can be fraught with high risks and costs, especially for AAA titles. It highlights the challenges of managing large-scale game development, the importance of publisher-developer relationships, and the financial pressures that can lead to studio acquisitions or closures.
Outlines
💸 The Financial Complexity of Concord's Development
The paragraph discusses the financial intricacies surrounding the development of the game Concord. It mentions a tweet by Colin Morar that claimed Concord cost $400 million to develop, a figure that has been contested. The narrative delves into the backstory, including the potential involvement of Sony and the acquisition of Firewalk Studios. It also touches on the concept of 'toxic positivity' within the game development culture, which may have contributed to the game's high cost. The paragraph sets the stage for a deeper exploration of the business side of game development.
🚀 The Evolution of Firewalk Studios and Probably Monsters
This section of the script narrates the history of Firewalk Studios and its parent company, Probably Monsters. It details the founding of Probably Monsters by Harold Ryan, a former Bungie executive, and the subsequent establishment of Firewalk Studios. The paragraph outlines the funding rounds of Probably Monsters, the growth of Firewalk, and its partnership with Sony. It also discusses the challenges faced by the company, including the cancellation of a game and the broader market conditions that may have influenced their decisions.
💼 The Business Model Behind Game Development Deals
The third paragraph examines the business model of video game development, particularly the relationship between Probably Monsters, Firewalk Studios, and Sony. It discusses the role of venture capital in game development and the strategy of using external funding for production. The paragraph also explores the decision by Sony to acquire Firewalk Studios, suggesting that it was driven by a desire for control and synergy with Bungie, another Sony-owned studio. It highlights the challenges of late entries into saturated markets and the risks associated with incubation teams.
🌐 The Industry-Wide Implications of Development Strategies
The final paragraph of the script broadens the discussion to include industry-wide practices and the implications of the business model on game development. It uses the example of Starfield's development to illustrate how pre-production can extend the perceived development timeline and how full production is often funded by publishers. The paragraph concludes by suggesting that the acquisition of Firewalk Studios by Sony is a strategic move that aligns with industry norms, and it hints at potential future collaborations between Firewalk and Bungie.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Concord
💡Toxic positivity
💡Sony
💡Firewalk Studios
💡Probably Monsters
💡Live service games
💡Financial incentives
💡Harold Ryan
💡Market saturation
💡Incubation teams
💡Full production
Highlights
Concord game development involved a 'toxic positivity' culture that allegedly halted negative feedback.
The game director of Concord self-demoted amid the controversy.
A tweet from Colin Morar claimed Concord cost $400 million to develop, sparking widespread discussion.
Sony's acquisition of Firewalk Studios, the developer of Concord, is part of a larger business strategy.
Financial incentives and the involvement of venture capital in game development were key factors in Concord's development.
The claim of a $400 million development cost is contested, with some sources suggesting a lower figure.
Harold Ryan, founder of Probably Monsters, has a significant background in the gaming industry, including a key role at Bungie.
Probably Monsters was founded with the intent to build teams and develop games, then sell or publish them.
Firewalk Studios, the developer of Concord, was part of Probably Monsters and started in 2018.
Sony's live service push has been met with mixed results, with several projects being cancelled or delayed.
The acquisition of Firewalk Studios by Sony in April 2023 was followed by the cancellation of another Probably Monsters studio's game in June.
The game Immortals of Aven, starring Jack Aven, was a significant financial failure despite a large budget.
Probably Monsters has multiple studios working on different projects, including a co-op RPG and a narrative game.
The business model of Probably Monsters involves incubating game ideas and then finding publishers or buyers to fund full production.
The acquisition of Firewalk Studios by Sony allowed Probably Monsters to avoid the full production costs of Concord.
The future of Firewalk Studios and the game Concord remains uncertain following the acquisition by Sony.
The gaming industry often involves late entries to saturated markets, which can be risky for both developers and publishers.
Transcripts
okay everyone here's the deal today
there's a lot of Concord news swirling
about the place there's talk of toxic
positivity at the studio the game
director is actually self-d demoted and
then there's the story I'm doing in full
depth today $400 million it's a massive
claim so the question is did Concord
cost that but it actually goes deeper
because we've got to ask who Sony
acquired firewalk from we've got to work
out the financial incentives involved
and let's just say the answer is deeper
than you think and by the end of today's
video I guarantee you will understand
way more of how the business of games
actually works here's the spark of
today's story Colin morar tweeted this
which I've added to down for brevity I
spoke with someone from Concord and it's
worse than you think it was called the
future of PlayStation with Star Wars
like potential and a toxic positivity
culture halted negative feedback it cost
$400
million this was an explosive tweet it
absolutely went all over the internet
and it makes sense it does kind of back
up our assumption $400 million I mean of
course it's Sony they're mad Spider-Man
2 cost $315 million even though it was a
sequel with shared technology to its
predecessor toxic positivity I mean yeah
how does something that obviously looked
so doomed even get made Star Wars
potential that also makes sense the
thing looks like Star Wars with some
Guardians of the Galaxy thrown into a
blender and as for the future of
PlayStation well of course under Jim
Ryan PlayStation's live service push so
far is a mess of course Jim's God now
and yeah hell divers 2 was absolutely a
win but that started in 2016 the rest
are chaos Naughty Dog killed The Last of
Us Part Two multiplayer Horizon has had
multiplayer projects yes plural uh that
are just Mia there's the likes of the
deviation games deal that went South
Sony actually went from saying 12 life
service releases by 2026 fiscal year to
only six so it halfed the organic growth
from Guerilla and naughty dog is clearly
a wash here but what about inorganic
growth like say the bunge acquisition
well uh you've seen the headlines as
well that's not going amazingly so yes I
can totally see the story of siie saying
to themselves this game will be our
future part of our live service plan and
somehow $400 million being involved but
again that 400 million number has been
contested so the question is is Colin
lying I don't think he is at all I think
he is telling what he believes to be
true is his Source lying well that's
possible but I'm going to assume assume
the best here now the podcast call in
did where all this comes from does
mention a $200 million number from Sony
and that's corroborated by other people
but then other people then also refute
the $400 million from the Tweet to work
this out I had to go to the beginning I
had to research Harold Ryan because it
all starts with him and doing that sort
of thing is completely normal and Grand
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tocom SLB their news Concord was
developed by a studio called firewalk
and the popular story is that firewalk
made a game so good Sony just gobbled
them up that is only friends partially
true there is another party involved and
that is probably monsters Harold Ryan
founded probably monsters in 2016 and by
then he had quite the career Harold
actually Rose from being a game tester
at Microsoft all the way to Bungie where
he was test manager on Halo 2 by 2006
the launch gear of Halo 3 he was Studio
manager and by 08 he was the CEO he
actually ran Bungie he spent the next
eight years as CEO of Bungie he then
left to found probably monsters in
January 2016 and as for Bungie's new CEO
well of course Pete Parsons a man with
an admittedly pretty damn good taste in
classic cars but a pretty rough tenure
as CEO of the company you can head up
this video for the latest than that back
to Harold during his tenure Bungie
launched Halo Reach they left Microsoft
they launched Destiny they completed the
shift from Halo style games all the way
to the modern live service in a way they
pioneered it now destiny absolutely had
its problems but what it was was a
massive brand that sparked Trends and he
led the company through that
transformational period one that the
rest of the industry would spend
billions trying to chase probably
monsters then was founded by him and
others and it started in stealth mode in
2016 slowly building up a team of Bungie
veterans the first funding is unknown
but they did get an $18 million seed
funding round in 2019 and then they
announced a $200 million series a in
2021 aiming for 300 people within a year
but let's not get ahead of ourselves the
series a was announced in 2021 but
firewalk the studio that actually made
Concord they started in 2018 as a part
of probably monsters though the idea for
Concord was a few years younger Now by
that time they did seem to have other
Studios at least one was sizable firewok
then went on to announce a Sony
partnership in 2021 the team then grew
to the upper double digits according to
one of the co-founders and Sony got for
them a new building to kind of reinforce
a bit of separation of them as a team by
now then things look awesome for
probably monsters I mean come on they've
got a big deal with Sony they've got
multiple Studios they have $200 million
in VC funding all surely looks
absolutely amazing but uh remember what
the early 2020s were like remember the
co bubble here's a bit of a laugh to
illustrate that the company Zoom went
from trading at $70 in 2019 to
$559 a share in 2020 down to 384 in 2021
and now is at
$67 Collective Madness that lost a lot
of people a lot of money of course to
the gain of the few who played it right
now for probably monsters when they get
$200 million that's obviously based on a
future valuation probably a large one
that is a decent multiple of that 200
million and that means more than just
one studio so you got firewalk Concord
Sony there's another team called
cauldron with god of war and Destiny
developers who are working on a
narrative game and then there is a team
who would later be announced as battle
barge who are working on a co-op RPG
with Talent from torch light and
Borderlands all must have seemed amazing
but then the next few years happened the
internal state of things may have
contrasted all of that public amazing
news so April 2023 saw Sony and
announced the firewor acquisition
probably monsters had 450 employees at
the time across battle barge and
cauldron plus any other teams that they
hadn't announced by June though things
would change they announced that
cauldron's game was cancelled and when
he announced it Harold said the
competitive landscape was too uncertain
and I suppose for some sort of narrative
game you can understand that just a few
months later August 22nd we had the
absolute Legendary game of the decade
Immortals of Aven starring Jack Aven who
tried to stop the ever War unfortunately
though it bombed on a reported budget of
$125 million you can see why the market
perhaps isn't uh enthusiastic but don't
worry because around the same time
battle barge was revealed to the public
externally then it looked a bit worrying
I mean they only had one announced
Studio they just had to kill one of
their major games it was only battle
barge Well turns out that's actually not
the case they had incubation teams and
that's why in April 2024 they unveiled
Hidden Grove another Studio they
highlighted it once more having Destiny
2 veterans like their general manager
who was a creative director over at
Bungie now I dug up this polygon
interview from April and in that the GM
basically hinted uh to the journalist
that there would be Battle Royale
elements and then said there' be a
closed Alpha in the summer now either
closed Alpha means closed Alpha and it
has not been leaked and like it is
actually happening and it's going to
plan either that or um well we haven't
heard anything about it and the summer
is passed and therefore maybe there's
there's been some sort of delay I mean
thinking first principles I hear be our
elements and I certainly think that
that's not on Trend anymore and then I
think about the other game being done by
battle barge it's cop RPG but it's one
with torch light and Borderlands
developers and that makes me think that
in both cases they're working on late
entries to saturated markets something
that Sony of course glossed over when
they went for Concord so now that you
know the context let's talk about the
deal and the 400 million once again I'm
trying to steal man everybody here
assuming no lies Colin and those who
refute him I believe are telling their
own personal truth based on all that
they believe that means the $400 Million
number comes from somewhere but it's not
what Sony sunk into concord's
development given how many people are
saying that's not the case now Colin's
podcast mentions PlayStation spending
200 million the Tweet says it cost 400
million the it there is Concord and the
most simple explanation there is you
just add the 200 million from the series
a to the 200 million from PlayStation
and then you get the cost of of Concord
spread between Sony and probably
monsters being 400 million but that of
course is not an accurate thing because
the $200 million series a funding is at
least for two internal Studios not just
the Concord development and of course
any incubators that we don't know about
in fact as it pertains to Concord the
bulk of its development would have been
paid by Sony via their exclusive
publishing contract so to me the
reporter $200 million on Playstation is
basically just the cost of publishing
Concord that does mean paying for the
new building for that team it means
paying for that team's expansion and
also paying for outsourcing there was
quite a lot of Outsourcing involved in
Concord although that is an extremely
common thing within the games industry
far more than most people know and it's
extremely prevalent with say Insomniac
and their games so that inflating things
up to 400 million just doesn't really
pass the sniff test either than the $400
Million number comes from adding the
series a or Sony ended up paying 200
million to acquire the studio but even
if it is the latter why would would they
acquire the studio when hell divers 2
shows that all you need is an exclusive
publishing deal and that is where
today's story actually gets interesting
on the surface yes Sony loved Concord
and they wanted it but I don't think
that's the full story because of two
points Point number one is Bungie I mean
obviously Sony bought Bungie for $3.7
billion firewalk are mostly X Bungie and
no doubt there will be strong Synergy
given the crossover in the sorts of
games they're making point two then is
deviation games essentially a team of X
Trey art people founded a studio they're
working on an FPS Sony clearly wanted a
Call of Duty competitor that made a lot
of sense given uh you know what
Microsoft wanted to do with Activision
Blizzard King but that game ended up
going south and it appears the deviation
is now dead the thing there for Sony is
they were merely the publisher that
meant they did not own the studio they
did not have full control the best they
could do at a certain point is just to
walk away and so burned by an experience
like that I think acquisition must have
looked good that explains it from Sony's
side but you're probably thinking hang
on a second probably monsters just got
Sony to pay for the whole development of
a game why on Earth would they sell the
studio there's a very good reason so
let's work out the other side of the
deal the most important thing to
understand is that probably monsters is
a venture capital backed Studio
Collective that means that selling a
studio does fit their business model and
the broad idea is going to be something
like this build a team have it make a
game either run that game internally off
your own game or take a deal be that
acquisition or be that a publishing deal
but that's only a surface level rate
we've got to go deeper to see how the
business model actually makes sense and
that's because video games in a way are
like films in many ways they're not but
both start with pre-production you know
writing prototyping solving tech issues
and building pipelines ideally with
veteran staff as an example like the
sorts of staff that probably monster was
able to Target and when pre-production
goes amazingly you get the Lord of the
Rings when pre-production does not go
amazingly you get The Hobbit trilogy so
the way it works is you do your
pre-production you got a solid case for
your game but then you actually need say
five times more people six seven eight
times more people to actually build the
thing and that might not even be
including the people that you'd be
contracting to as well if you're going
to do that you need a lot of money so
why spend your own you should doing good
business spend somebody else's money and
that's why you get a publisher for
Concord that publisher was Sony and
again remember Sony had a full
publishing deal for for this game before
they decided to acquire the studio in a
case like this Sony pays for full
production which is the most expensive
part and that kind of makes sense Sony
are a big company they have a lot of
money what they can provide is capital
and scale a smaller more incubation
Focus company while maybe they are the
sort of company that's good at making
ideas building small teams of absolute
pros and that's sort of how the market
shakes out now let's take hell divers 2
as an example obviously Arrowhead had a
good relationship with Sony because of
Hell divers one but Arrowhead as of
January 2016 had around 30 staff of
course though with Sony's deal to do
full production for hell divers 2 the
team grew to well over a 100 and I
believe it's currently growing now and
that means when we look at say cauldron
and the death of that it's probably
because they could not find a publisher
for that game that means that while they
might have a great vertical slice a
great plan for the game they just
weren't getting any biters that means
that for battle barge and and Hidden
Grove those are almost certainly not
full-scale production teams they are
going to be pre-production teams not a
small incubation Team game jamming no
they will be larger than that and they
will be more expensive because they're
full of veterans but not full size not
full expense and indeed if you go to the
probably monsters website right now you
do see it list incubation teams as a
thing that they've got but it's grayed
out there's no public info on them and
what we learned from all of this then is
extremely clear this is business as
usual and it it happens in a way that
actually misleads and confuses people as
an example loads purchase Starfield
because they thought that this was
Bethesda cooking for eight years right
an 8year Bethesda development which is
more than the usual four or five but of
course in reality Starfield existed in
pre-production and tests for years but
it only had its full production staff of
275 between 2020 and 2023 meaning a lot
of customers thought they're getting 8
years of extremely expensive AAA
development when in fact uh no it was
three though to be clear eight years of
just shive 300 people would be a stupid
amount to spend on one single game and
it would make the game probably worse
cuz uh more people is absolutely not
marrier and the one time where too many
cooks spoils the broth well I think that
is absolutely pre-production where you
need a small team so the ideas are good
and the talent density is high and so
what we learn here is the core business
model is to make a core game with a
vision and a production plan they then
sold one of those to Sony who decided to
double down and purchase the studio and
that's what happened with firewalk
probably monsters don't have to pay for
the full production just incubation the
expensive part is handled by a third
party and ideally they sell a studio
because when they sell a studio that's
going to be pretty damn great for the
people who cut the deal because you
don't dump $200 million into a series a
without some sort of expectation of
returns and so firewalk is now a studio
in limbo the staff there do not know
what Sony have got planned for either
Concord or them but it is relevant that
uh they've got skills skills that have a
lot of overlap with Bungie and I've
heard on the Great Vine that marathon is
actually a bit of a show so it
seems Bungie might need the help now to
understand Bungie's dire situation you
got to watch this video next
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