ARE THE TORIES FINISHED? MATT GOODWIN, JACOB REES-MOGG & NIGEL FARAGE ON THE FUTURE OF CONSERVATISM
Summary
TLDRThe video script is a debate about whether the UK's Conservative Party is in terminal decline. Participants argue the party has lost the confidence of its 2019 voters due to disagreements over immigration policy and a disconnect between the party leadership and its base. There is discussion over whether the newly formed Reform Party could replace the Conservatives, but also acknowledgment that the UK's first-past-the-post electoral system makes this challenging. The debate highlights volatility in UK politics and questions whether this moment could mark historic political change.
Takeaways
- 😟 Farage believes the Conservative party is in grave danger and could be terminally declining
- 🤔 The Conservative party is deeply divided and disconnected from its voters
- 📉 Recent polls show Conservatives plummeting to just 20% support
- 👎 Farage says Boris Johnson has failed to deliver on Brexit promises like controlling immigration
- 😕 Farage feels Conservative voters have lost confidence in the party leadership
- 🤨 Farage wonders if there's any point to the Conservative party anymore
- 📈 Farage notes the Reform party is rising in polls without much effort so far
- 🤔 Historic volatility suggests voters are open to changing party support
- 😟 Immigration remains a top priority issue for Conservative voters
- 🤔 Farage implies he faces a decision on getting involved with Reform party
Q & A
What are the current poll numbers showing for the Conservative Party?
-The latest poll numbers show the Conservatives down to 20% support, with the Reform Party at 12% and Labour with a massive lead.
What does Nigel Farage think is the main reason for the Conservatives' poll decline?
-Farage believes the main reason is that Conservative voters have lost confidence in the party over its failure to control immigration and 'stop the boats', despite promises to do so.
How does Professor Matt Goodwin characterize the Conservative Party's current situation?
-Goodwin says the Conservatives are 'on life support' and don't know how to speak to the voters they inherited from Brexit.
What challenge does Jacob Rees-Mogg say the Conservatives face regarding voters?
-Rees-Mogg says the Conservatives have failed to inspire their own voters recently and need to say things that inspire them again.
What exception does Rees-Mogg point to regarding challenger parties?
-Rees-Mogg cites the case of the Reform Party in Canada in the 1990s, which went from a challenger to wiping out the incumbent Conservative majority.
What could convince some Conservative MPs to defect, according to Goodwin?
-Goodwin suggests Conservative MPs facing defeat may defect to Reform if they think it gives them a better chance of retaining their seats.
Why does Farage say immigration could be as divisive as Brexit was?
-Farage argues immigration is now the top priority for many voters over economic issues, making it a new dividing issue.
What does Goodwin say is historically unprecedented right now?
-Goodwin points out voter volatility and churn is at unprecedented highs, with 60% changing votes between elections.
What challenge does Rees-Mogg say Reform faces?
-Rees-Mogg states Reform faces the challenge of first-past-the-post, which makes it hard for challengers even with close polling.
How does the panel view the Conservatives' long-term survival chances?
-The panelists agree the Conservative Party is likely to survive long-term based on its historic resilience, but its current situation is dire.
Outlines
😕 Farage questions whether Conservative party is in terminal decline
Farage questions whether voters have lost confidence in the Conservatives, citing polls showing the party down to 20% support. He wonders if there's anything the party can do to regain voter trust before the next election. Farage and Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg debate whether the party is in an existential crisis or can renew itself as it has historically.
😟 Conservatives have disconnected from their voters
Rees-Mogg admits there is a disconnect between Conservative voters and party leaders that must be fixed. Pollster Matt Goodwin agrees, saying after the next defeat the party won't renew around its new Brexit-era electorate but retreat to its liberal comfort zone. The party doesn't know how to speak to the working class voters it gained under Boris Johnson and Brexit.
😕 Reform UK could overtake Conservatives under first-past-the-post
The panel discusses how Nigel Farage's Reform UK party could threaten the Conservatives' dominance. Under first-past-the-post they may seem like a wasted vote, but if Reform polls above the Tories nationally, Conservative MPs in red wall seats may defect for a better chance of retaining their seats. The situation echoes the rise of the Reform party in 1990s Canada.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡conservative party
💡immigration
💡brexit
💡reform party
💡voters
💡polls
💡election
💡first-past-the-post
💡sdp
💡canada
Highlights
The Conservative party is on life support and could face catastrophic defeat
The Conservative party has lost the confidence of its 2019 voters
The Conservative party is disconnected from its voters and the elected
The Conservative party doesn't know how to speak to the voters it inherited from Brexit
After a catastrophic defeat, the Conservative party may pivot away from working class voters
The Conservative party is failing to inspire its traditional voters
Immigration could be the issue that destroys the Conservatives like Brexit did
Voter volatility in the UK has never been higher - voters readily change parties
Reform UK faces significant hurdles under the UK's first-past-the-post system
There is historical precedent of challenger parties abruptly surging to power in other countries
Many Conservative MPs may defect to Reform UK since they expect to lose their seats anyway
Reform UK picking up disaffected Conservative voters could lead to dramatic electoral changes
The Conservative party has rebounded from past challenges, but the immigration issue may be different
Reform UK faces the challenge of convincing voters they are not a wasted vote
Nigel Farage and Reform UK have an important decision to make regarding Conservative defections
Transcripts
well I'm really sorry but do you believe
he's going to stop the boats because I
don't does he believe he's going to stop
the boats no I don't think he does and
it just the idea that the conservative
party is United on this or any other
issue is for the birds now look we used
to political leaders of of whether it be
a governing party or an opposition party
putting the best spin they can on things
but I just begin to get the feeling that
no longer do we believe a single word
this man is saying and this is very much
backed up by ugv poll that was out in
the times today and it makes pretty Grim
reading for the conservatives it shows
them now down to
20% in the opinion polls with reform who
frankly have not had a great deal of
publicity no major celebs joining them
or anything like that creeping up on 12%
and labor with a massive massive lead
now political parties have good times
and bad times and back in 2019 the
conservative party had a very very tough
time which I had quite a bit to do with
but they got out of that mess by Theresa
May resigning Boris Johnson coming in
and then saying right we finally get it
we understand you we are going to
deliver brexit we are going to take back
control and many millions of brexit
Voters thought that also meant taking
back control of our borders reducing the
numbers of people coming in to our
country they had a stoning majority of
80 seats what have they done for the
last four years well they spent most of
it arguing among themselves Naval gazing
arguments within the conservative party
without much thought as to what the rest
of the country really needs and I never
thought I'd really ask this question but
I'm going to debate tonight is the
conservative party in terminal decline I
want your thoughts on this please farage
GB news.com or tweet #f faraj on GB News
why do I say that I feel that the loss
of confidence in the conservative party
from 2019 conservative voters is now at
catastrophic levels I'm not even sure
there's anything they can do between now
and the next election to get that
support back and whilst the first pass
the post system is what's kept in place
to Party politics remember before the
first world war the liberal party with
the governing party they were ultimately
I accept it took a great War it took the
emancipation of women but they were
replaced by the labor party I wonder
whether there is any point to the
conservative party and I say that
because they're always argu arue amongst
divisions that we're a broad
church but even a broad church needs a
religion of some kind to believe in I'm
not sure they've actually got this
anymore I think they're not fit for
purpose I think they're on the way out
Jacob ree Mar conservative Member of
Parliament for Northeast
Somerset probably the nearest thing to a
party loyalist one could ever meet um a
True Believer in the conservative party
Jacob since about
1834 I think it's roughly the date when
the modern conservative party has been
recognizable as it is has it ever been
in Graver danger than it is now oh yes
indeed um from 1846 to
1874 the conservatives don't form a
majority government they split over the
Corn Laws um the peer lights go off
really with gladston to the liberal
party and Israeli reforms the
conservative party as a patriotic party
that represents everybody in the country
exactly actually what Boris was doing in
2019 which was interrupted and the key
for the conservative party is that we
get back to representing the people who
voted for us in 2019 and at the moment
though Donald Trump they think of the
handsome Mr farage I any you've seen
this poll but 54% of them trust you as
opposed to 35% who trust the Prime
Minister and what we've done wrong is
move away from our call supporters and
we've been set off course over the boats
issue by some people who hold the EU
effectively and they're calling it the
ECR at the moment in higher regard than
their own voters and that's been why
rishy couldn't go further on the boats I
supported all the Amendments but there
just wasn't a majority in Parliament for
it and I think there's a much bigger
political problem it's not the or is
it's there is this disconnect between
voters and those who are in charge
between the electors and the elected
that's absolutely true that's absolutely
and we can fix that cuz we've done it
before if you take the whole history of
the Tory party you go back to the
beginning of the 18th century we have
had long periods when we haven't made
that connection and we haven't succeeded
but we've always managed to come back to
get close to voters that's what it's all
about however 20% is a very low number
Professor Matt Goodwin and for the
purpos of this debate importantly
pollster yeah these numbers are dire
aren't they they're very dire I mean the
conservative party is on life support
and you think about why the conservative
party historically has been one of the
most successful parties in the history
of democracy it's because of its power
to renew it's renewed its ideology it's
renewed its electorate but after 2019
you know after renewing itself around
the brexit Divide I think what strikes
me is that the conservative party
doesn't really know how to speak to the
voters it inherited from brexit and so
if you look at what's going to happen to
the party at the next election Nigel
with these poll numbers
the MPS who are left they're not red
wall MPS they're not Northern MPS
they're Oxbridge educated Southern
conservative MPS of a more liberal uh
mindset so the idea that after this
catastrophic defeat which the polls
suggest is on on on Route I don't really
think the conservative party is going to
Pivot back and say well let's rebuild
this electorate I think they're going to
go into their comfort zone and the
problem is that comfort zone is
University towns big cities social
liberals and they're not going to vote
conservative for a very long time what
of the differences Jacob if you go back
into history you're quite right I mean
you know Peele did the right thing in
1846 the right thing for the country but
the wrong thing for the party at that
moment in time and for the next 22 years
um whatever it was but there was no
political party to challenge directly
the conservatives you know you had the
wigs the
Liberals but you now and we've seen this
over the years with ukip and the brexit
party now you've got reform now there is
a challenger well you know perfectly
well because you've made this point the
brexit party had the great advantage in
the European elections uh of um
proportional representation you also had
brilliant candidates including one anun
ree small I think inspired the nation um
and that meant that people could vote
for the brexit party knowing that it
would lead directly to Ms the issue now
is that yes reforms on 12% but it won't
win a single seat and it may well help
out some quite proper conservatives
people you would find a lot in common
you me quite proper conservatives who've
overseen massive tax Rises a huge
increase of the size of the State open
borders legal immigration at levels we'
never SE I me quite proper conservatives
who like me voted for the Amendments
last week to you didn't vote against It
ultimately Jacob did you no because the
bill was better than what we've
currently got and um is there any point
oh yes I mean I'm not confident it's
going to lead plan leaving quickly if we
had time it could but this argument
Jacob this argument you know you you
might vote out some good chaps that
exist within the conservative party I
don't know what percentage of the
Parliamentary party would be with a
center of public opinion on immigration
maybe 20% of you no more than that but
the point is this if the public think at
the next election that labor is going to
win
anyway the idea that well don't vote for
them because they're not going to win
many seats that Fades away I don't think
it does because you have the question of
do you really want labor to have a
majority of 150 and do you want them to
have a complete free-for-all well they
might have it anyway as Blair had and I
do think you make one one important
point you imply something very important
that when discussing this one has to be
very careful not to imply we are
entitled to any
voters you have reform is not taking our
voters We are failing to inspire our
voters and even more than than the
people going to reform are the people
who are intending to stay at home there
a bigger number of people and in my view
on it's easier to bring back if only we
would say things that Inspire them which
are the sort of things ja well we right
Jacob May well we right but there's no
leadership in the current Tory party
going to bring those people back is that
M rishy sunak ratings are at a new low
uh there is no enthusiasm for the rishy
sunak project as we can see in the polls
here's one interesting um scenario to to
to put out there which which I think
differs from say the ukip and the brexit
party experiment what if at the spring
reform is polling above the conservative
party that could be interesting because
going back to the 50s there's a very
famous French academic Mars duv and he
said the problem with first pass post
systems for Challenger parties like
reform is that many voters look at them
and say they're a wasted vote but if
they look at the national polls and they
see reform polling potentially above the
conservative party that changes the
dynamic and this of course is what the
sdp never quite managed to do it's what
ukip never quite managed to do which is
present itself as a credible alternative
and if that happens everything's off the
table the sdp did though in 1981 the sdp
were polling over 50% and in the 1983
election what they win 1% 2% yeah they
got
25.3% 23 seats and labor got 27 and a
bit percent and 29 that's right and that
is the that is the fundamental issue
with first pass the post and it makes it
difficult for Challenger party is even
if they're getting close one excep to
that there's one exception to that and
that's Canada 30 years ago yes where an
incumbent conservative party with a
majority and doing about as badly in the
polls as the British conservative party
is now faced a party oddly called
reform and they literally disappeared
down the two seat so it can happen oh
extraordinary results can happen and
first P the post tends to exaggerate him
one way the it can invert can't that's
right that's right there's a Tipping
Point I also wonder if I'm a 2019
conservative MP I'm thinking I'm going
to lose my
seat why wouldn't I defect why wouldn't
I leave why wouldn't I go out with a
bang and think you know what actually
chances are I might have a better chance
in this seat in this red wo seat under a
reform Banner than under a conservative
banner and I think that's another
variable a kind of Known Unknown in this
election that may yet see a number of
MPS say I'm going to to you know roll
the dice here I'm going to try something
different because I'm leaving politics
anyway history suggests history suggests
that Jacob's arguments are right sure
but is there a chance that this could be
a real moment of of historic change the
the the chance is one issue which is
immigration uh throughout the 20th
century the conservatives throughout the
19th century the conservatives endured
but we are now in a world where identity
and cultural issues matter just as much
to voters in fact more to voters than
economic issues if you ask Boris
Johnson's voters today what is your top
priority they say stopping the boats
they don't say cost of living crisis
they say stopping the boats so
immigration could be the new brexit it
could be the issue that cuts across left
and right and if reform are picking up
now about 15% of Boris Johnson's voters
what if that starts to go up what if
it's 25% 35% and they start to eat into
some of the workingclass voters and the
apathetic voters who are saying I'm not
going to vote at all then things start
to change dramatically and one thing I
would say look at the British election
study the premier study in of the
country's politics that shows over the
last decade 60% of Voters have changed
their minds from one election to the ne
the next we've never seen this before so
volatility the churn in the system has
never been as high as it is that is a
very fair point that's an extremely
important point you just have to look at
Labor in Scotland and labor in the red
wall to see how willing people are to
change their minds I me lab in Scotland
is quite extraordinary in something none
none of us ever thought we'd see happen
reform has a challenge and Nigel you are
part of this challenge I that that um if
you think the sdp with uh Roy Jenkins
and Shirley Williams and so on and and
David Owen particularly really big
figures could not get through that
hurdle I just think there any way reform
without you can do it and you have an
important decision to make well it's
very good of you Jacob to put it back on
me right at the end of this debate thank
you very much indeed gentlemen and folks
historically of course the conservative
party will survive all of this I just
don't know something just perhaps feels
a little bit different
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