Andrew Marr's brutal analysis of Liz Truss and the Tories | LBC
Summary
TLDRThe transcript discusses the current challenges faced by the UK's Prime Minister and the Conservative Party. It highlights the sense of disillusionment within the party, with members sharing critical messages and expressing concerns about the government's direction, particularly in relation to economic policies and the handling of recent events. The conversation suggests that the party's internal divisions and lack of a clear majority may lead to significant political upheaval, with some drawing parallels to past political crises. The importance of effective communication and understanding the broader political landscape is emphasized to address these issues.
Takeaways
- 🔍 A pervasive sense of unease and uncertainty is palpable, likened to the smell of burning rubber, affecting various sectors including coffee bars and social atmospheres.
- 💭 There are concerns about the potential unraveling of major policies and the impact this could have on society, such as benefit cuts and environmental changes.
- 🔄 The script mentions a series of U-turns in policy, hinting at a lack of direction and a possible loss of parliamentary majority for the current agenda.
- 🗣️ Whispers of discontent within the party are evident, with members sharing critical messages and expressing concerns about the party's direction.
- 📉 The economic implications of recent policies are a significant worry, with predictions of increased costs for average families, such as an extra £1,500 on mortgages.
- 🌪️ Phrases like 'fatal tailspin', 'stench of death', and 'death spiral' are being used by level-headed individuals to describe the current situation.
- 👀 There is a suggestion that the value of a previous leader is becoming apparent due to their ability to balance different factions within the party.
- 🤔 The script ponders the root cause of the current issues, suggesting that the Conservative Party's struggle with the concept of Brexit may have led to internal divisions and a shift in direction.
- 📈 The potential for economic recovery is acknowledged, but it is questioned whether this would be enough to change the public's perception of the current administration.
- 📊 The rising cost of mortgages is compared to the negative equity issues of the past, indicating a possible financial crisis on the horizon.
- 🚨 The importance of learning from recent missteps in communication and policy handling is emphasized for the Prime Minister's team to maintain trust and stability.
Q & A
What is the main issue being discussed in the transcript?
-The main issue discussed is the political turmoil within a party, specifically focusing on the challenges faced by the Prime Minister due to a lack of parliamentary majority and the subsequent policy U-turns.
What is the metaphor used to describe the current situation in the party?
-The metaphor used is the 'stench of death' and 'death spiral', indicating a rapidly deteriorating situation within the party.
What are some of the specific policy areas mentioned as being problematic?
-The policy areas mentioned include benefit cuts, environmental changes, planning, and fracking.
How is the Prime Minister's growth agenda perceived within the party?
-The Prime Minister's growth agenda is perceived as problematic because she lacks a parliamentary majority to support it.
What is the significance of the 'Omnishambles budget of 2012' mentioned in the transcript?
-The 'Omnishambles budget of 2012' is used as a historical reference point to illustrate a previous instance of political chaos and disarray within the party.
What is the comparison made between the current situation and the John Major administration?
-The comparison made is that while John Major faced significant challenges, including the Maastricht Treaty rebellion, the current situation may be worse due to the lack of support for the Prime Minister within the Parliamentary party.
What is the term used to describe the potential upcoming crisis with mortgages?
-The term used is 'negative equity', which refers to a situation where people's houses are worth less than their mortgages.
What advice is given to the Prime Minister's communications team?
-The advice given is that they need to learn from the mishandling of the mini-budget and U-turns, and understand politics better by preparing the ground and thinking ahead to avoid losing trust.
What is the concern about the Prime Minister being imposed by the party members on the Parliamentary party?
-The concern is that the Prime Minister may not have the support of the Parliamentary party, which could lead to further instability and potential leadership challenges.
What is the historical context of 'taking soundings' within the party mentioned in the transcript?
-'Taking soundings' refers to an old practice within the party where they would gauge the level of support for a leader before potentially initiating a leadership contest.
What is the overall sentiment being expressed about the party's current state?
-The overall sentiment is one of concern and uncertainty, with expressions of 'Hollow laughter' and 'Gallows humor' indicating a grim outlook on the situation.
Outlines
🚨 Political Turmoil and Economic Concerns
The paragraph discusses the current political and economic challenges faced by the government. It highlights the sense of unease and the 'stench of burning rubber' from a recent U-turn in policy, which has caused widespread discontent among the public and within the party itself. The speaker mentions various issues such as benefit cuts, environmental changes, and fracking, which are all contributing to a perceived 'great unraveling.' The lack of a parliamentary majority for the Prime Minister's agenda is emphasized, and the conference is described as dissolving in a 'fatal tailspin.' The conversation also touches on the absence of real opponents within the party and the potential long-term impact of the current policies, including the extra financial burden on families due to the mini budget. The comparison with the 2012 'omnishambles' budget and the value of a unifying party leader like Boris Johnson is also made, with a reflection on the Conservative Party's struggle to define Brexit and its implications for the country's direction.
🎪 Leadership Contests and Party Dynamics
This paragraph delves into the dynamics within the party and the potential for a leadership contest. It discusses the concept of 'taking soundings,' a method by which the party can gauge support for its leaders. The speaker notes the unhappiness within the party and the possibility of a change in leadership if the current Prime Minister does not have the backing of the Parliamentary party. The paragraph also reflects on the challenges faced by previous administrations, drawing parallels with the era of John Major and the issues of negative equity during his time. The speaker suggests that the current situation may lead to a similar scenario, with rising mortgage costs potentially causing a new form of 'equity gap.' The paragraph concludes with a call for the Prime Minister's team to learn from recent missteps and to understand the importance of politics and preparation in order to maintain trust and avoid a full leadership contest.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡burning rubber
💡U-turn
💡fracking
💡growth agenda
💡parliamentary majority
💡WhatsApp messages
💡omnishambles
💡fatal tailspin
💡death spiral
💡Singapore on Thames
💡Brexit
Highlights
The pervasive smell of burning rubber as a metaphor for the current political situation.
The impact of a screeching U-turn on local businesses, such as coffee bars.
Concerns about the potential unraveling of various areas, including benefit cuts and environmental changes.
The lack of a parliamentary majority for the Prime Minister's growth agenda.
The stench around the party and the sharing of WhatsApp messages among long-standing members.
The comparison of the current situation to the 2012 omnishambles budget.
The use of phrases like 'fatal tailspin', 'stench of death', and 'death spiral' in describing the conference.
The absence of real opponents within the party, choosing to stay away from the conference.
The difficulty in finding an economist who supports the current government's position.
The potential for the economy to show signs of life and growth in the future, despite current challenges.
The reassessment of Boris Johnson's balance of the two sides of the party and his role as a front man.
The outcome of Brexit being influenced by a small group with a radical vision for Britain.
The comparison of the current situation to John Major's administration, particularly regarding the Maastricht Treaty rebellion.
The potential for a situation similar to the negative equity crisis of the past, with rising mortgage costs.
The importance of the Prime Minister's communications team learning from recent mishandlings.
The possibility of avoiding a full leadership contest through preemptive soundings within the party.
The hollow laughter and gallows humor surrounding the political discussions in Birmingham.
The examination of the problem of imposing a Prime Minister by party members on a Parliamentary party that does not support her.
Transcripts
um the smell of burning rubber from that
screeching U-turn the other night has
now has now disseminated and it is
choking everybody around the bars and
cutting coffee bars here Nick and
because it's not just that the real
question is is this the beginning of the
great unraveling of much more and on
almost every area that you look at
whether it's benefit cuts that you were
talking with the Prime Minister about or
whether it's environmental changes
whether it's planning whether it's
fracking you are seeing the beginnings
of u-turns and the reason is that she
has got her big agenda she's got her big
growth agenda what she doesn't have it
appears is a parliamentary majority for
it it's beginning to unravel do you get
a sort of stench around the party around
the conference as you pick up with
presumably people you've known for 20 30
years oh absolutely and people are
sharing WhatsApp messages from other
members of the party and and so on I
can't really repeat
um on morning Wireless what people are
saying without breaking into fluent
Anglo-Saxon which I'm not going to do
but I remember the remember the Omni
shambles budget of 2012 that was a word
that came into the Lexicon I think from
the thick of it and people started
talking about omnish animals this is a
kind of omni shamles in multiple
different directions it's absolutely
extraordinary I have never seen a
conference dissolve quite like this one
it's a fatal tailspin then is it I think
it feels fatal
um certainly phrases like the stench of
death and death spiral and death Zoom
are being talked about again and again
and again by level-headed people and
don't forget the real opponents of Liz
dross in the conservative party aren't
even here they've stayed away
of course if growth if growth comes
about then the Prime Minister quasi
quasan would say we told you all along
can we just just write that off
certainly you have to work hard to find
an economist who supports their position
it is still just possible that you know
in six months time they're still there
and the economy is starting to show
signs of life and growing we've all got
short memories in politics and people
may may look back and listen yeah that
was Birmingham was pretty rough but it's
in the past I don't think that's the
case for lots of very very concrete
reasons uh you know quasiquarting talked
about a little turbulence Q laughter in
the hall about his his mini budget
somebody was tweeting today that that
little turbulence is going to cost lots
of ordinary families average families 1
500 pounds extra on their mortgages in
the year ahead they're not going to
forget that reflect on this somebody
quite senior told me we're starting to
see the value of Boris don't laugh we're
starting to see the value of Boris
Johnson because he did actually balance
the two sides of the party he was an
astonishing front man and all the
offstage feuding and fighting could sort
of be forgotten because you go here
comes big Bluff boys is there some truth
there is actually some truth in that I
would go a bit further I would say that
a lot of what we're seeing today is the
outcome not of brexit itself but of the
fact the conservative party couldn't
work out quite what brexit was for what
it meant for most people it meant as it
were a reassertion of sovereignty going
a bit back to the old days things as
they were a little bit nostalgic I think
most Tory MPS took that kind of view but
there was always a small group for whom
it was a radical excuse to Veer off in a
totally different direction this was uh
in the in the Californian phrase move
fast and break things brexit it was you
know turn Britain into a much more
Americanized all the markets roaring
ahead unfamiliar fast-moving kind of
country so-called Singapore on Thames
they were always a small minority and
now they're in charge of the party a
quite recent history and I have to say I
wasn't working in the country the time I
was overseas but is this akin to John
Major the dying days of the major
Administration Edition
um I'm tempted to say that John major
and the cabinet around John Major were
more substantial John Major had been a
very successful Rising Minister for a
long time in office he was well known in
the country and he was a calming
influence he was facing a particularly
ferocious back bench Rebellion over the
maastrich treaty and all of that black
Wednesday and and more what where I
think there is a really interesting
parallel is in the so-called Equity uh
problem the equity Gap where we had
negative equity if you remember lots of
people's houses were suddenly worth less
than their mortgages and I can see
something ahead a little bit like that
when it comes to the rising cost of
mortgages right now but you know major
carried on for quite a long time and he
did he always did better in the
elections Than People expected finally
as they depart Birmingham what does the
Prime Minister possibly more what to her
what's called com's team her
Communications team her advice what do
they need to learn from how the mini
budget was handled how the U-turn was
handled how Birmingham has been handled
standard they need to learn something
called politics they need to think ahead
they need to they need to prepare the
ground what they need to do now is by
themselves time because this could be
the end of this trust quite quickly if
she doesn't if she doesn't really get a
thickness that you think they do her in
prior to the election that they're
talking about it I mean all around this
place people are talking about it is
there some way of avoiding a full
leadership contest just going in it was
an old phrase they used to hear in back
in the McMillan era the party has been
taking soundings and somebody says to me
taking soundings is coming back we can
go in and say to I'm terribly sorry if
owns we've been taking soundings and you
don't have the support of the party and
it appears that sir Herbert oat cake is
the is the universal size of the pie and
the herbado cake becomes uh party it
does it does seem mad and it is mad but
nonetheless so great is the unhappiness
that that is the kind of conversation
crackling around right you were talking
about the laughter behind you I think
it's Hollow laughter it's Hollow
laughter Gallows humor is what's going
all around us what are you examining
tonight what aspects are you looking at
tonight Andrew have you worked it out I
want to look at uh the question of the
real problem here being possibly the uh
apparent idiocy really of imposing a
prime minister by the party members on
the Parliamentary party who don't
support her in other words her problem
is in the Parliamentary party and as we
all return to Westminster next week it's
going to get worse not better and it's
because she doesn't have enough MPS
behind her and it's it is slightly
Bonkers for party members to impose on
MPS somebody they don't didn't really
want
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