Buy the Dip or Time to Short the Stock Market: Breaking Down the Bearish Argument

Summary

Jason Shapiro 在拥挤市场报告中讨论了股市的看跌面。他透露自己今年首次做空股市，并解释了基于交易者持仓报告和新闻失败的决策逻辑。他指出，如果市场出现回调，并且投资者在回调期间买入，可能会引发真正的麻烦。他还提出了一个更宏观的悲观观点，认为整个社会在财务上类似于庞氏骗局，但同时也承认这种情况可能不会很快结束。

Takeaways

• 📅 视频中提到了日期，即2023年8月4日星期五。
• 🗣️ Jason Shapiro是crowdedmarketreport.com的主持人，他在这个视频中分享了他对股市的看法。
• 🐻 Jason Shapiro在视频中透露，他今年首次做空了股市，这表明他对市场持悲观态度。
• 📊 他提到了交易者持仓报告，并分析了商业持仓，认为这是他做空市场的一个信号。
• 📉 Jason Shapiro认为，市场在出现新闻失败时，即市场对利好数据反应不佳时，是他做空的时机。
• 📈 他提到了市场在达到新高后的反转，这可能是一个不利的信号。
• 🌐 Jason提出了一个宏观上的悲观论点，即整个社会在金融上是一个庞氏骗局，因为政府发行了大量债务，并且自己印钱购买这些债务。
• 📊 他讨论了技术层面上的熊市迹象，包括纳斯达克开始落后于其他指数，这可能是市场转向的信号。
• 📉 视频中提到了市场可能的回调和新高，但Jason认为如果市场真的回调并且人们买入，可能会导致真正的麻烦。
• 🤔 Jason表达了对市场的犹豫，他不确定什么会让长期看空的人改变看法，但他提出了市场可能在回调后出现真正的下跌。
• 📝 最后，Jason希望观众对他的悲观观点持保留态度，因为他是在谈论自己的投资观点。

Q & A

Jason Shapiro 是谁，他在视频中提到了什么日期？

Jason Shapiro 是 crowdedmarketreport.com 的主持人。在视频中，他提到了日期是2023年8月4日，星期五。

Jason Shapiro 在视频中提到他做了什么决定？

Jason Shapiro 在视频中提到，他在今年第一次做空了股市。

什么是 'commitments of Trader positioning'，它在视频中提到了什么？

“Commitments of Trader positioning” 是一种市场分析工具，用来追踪不同市场参与者的持仓情况。视频中提到，Dow Jones 的商业持仓达到了一年半以来的最空水平。

Jason Shapiro 如何解释 'news failure' 这个概念？

在视频中，Jason Shapiro 将 'news failure' 解释为市场在有利好消息时上涨，但随后却下跌并收盘的情况。他认为上周四的市场表现就是一个 'news failure' 的例子。

Jason Shapiro 提到了 'goldilocksy data'，这是什么意思？

在视频中，'goldilocksy data' 指的是既显示经济增长又显示没有通货膨胀的数据，这种数据通常被认为对市场是正面的。

Jason Shapiro 在视频中提到了哪些可能影响股市的因素？

Jason Shapiro 在视频中提到了多个因素，包括政府债务、市场参与者的持仓情况、技术图表分析、市场共识以及潜在的经济衰退等。

视频中提到的 'Ponzi scheme' 是什么，它与当前金融市场有何关联？

在视频中，'Ponzi scheme' 是指一种金融诈骗，新投资者的资金用来支付早期投资者的回报。Jason Shapiro 将当前的金融市场比作一个庞氏骗局，因为政府发行大量债务并通过印钞来购买这些债务。

Jason Shapiro 如何看待当前股市的技术分析？

Jason Shapiro 在视频中提到，他通常不使用传统的技术分析方法，但他注意到在牛市中，最不稳定的指数（如纳斯达克）应该领先，而当前情况正好相反，这在他看来是一个熊市信号。

视频中提到的 'capitulation' 是什么意思，它如何影响市场？

在视频中，'capitulation' 指的是投资者在持续亏损后放弃并平仓空头头寸。Jason Shapiro 认为，如果市场出现回调，并且之前一直看空的投资者开始买入，这可能会导致市场出现真正的麻烦。

Jason Shapiro 对未来股市的看法是什么？

Jason Shapiro 在视频中表达了对股市的悲观看法，他认为如果市场出现回调并且投资者买入，可能会导致市场出现严重的下跌。但他也提到，这种看法应该谨慎对待，因为他是在谈论自己的投资观点。

Outlines

00:00

📉 股市看跌观点分析

Jason Shapiro在2023年8月4日的视频中，首次公开表示对股市持看跌态度，并分享了他做空股市的原因。他提到了利用交易者持仓报告来识别市场转折点，并解释了为什么在上周四市场出现所谓的“新闻失败”时，他认为是做空的好时机。Jason还讨论了市场的大环境，包括政府债务问题和潜在的庞氏骗局风险，以及他对市场可能的长期影响的看法。

05:00

📊 技术分析与市场情绪

Jason继续分析了股市的技术面和市场情绪。他指出，尽管通常不使用传统技术分析，但注意到了股市领先指标的异常表现，特别是纳斯达克指数开始落后，这在他看来是一个看跌信号。此外，他还讨论了市场共识对股市新高的预期，以及如果市场出现回调，投资者可能会买入，从而可能引发真正的麻烦。Jason强调，尽管他对看跌观点有所犹豫，但他提出了一些可能导致市场大幅下跌的情况，包括投资者对市场回调的反应和潜在的过度买入行为。

Keywords

💡熊市

熊市是指股票市场普遍下跌，投资者信心不足的市场环境。在视频中，Jason Shapiro提到了他今年首次做空股市，这表明他认为市场将会进入熊市阶段。

💡做空

做空是指投资者预期资产价格将会下跌，因此借入资产并立即卖出，希望在价格下跌后再买回，从而获得差价利润的交易策略。视频中提到Jason Shapiro在上周四首次做空股市，这是他基于市场分析做出的决策。

💡持仓报告

持仓报告是指金融市场中交易者持仓情况的统计数据，可以反映市场参与者的多空态度。视频中提到了对道琼斯指数的持仓报告分析，Jason Shapiro通过分析持仓数据来决定他的交易策略。

💡新闻失败

新闻失败是指市场对某些新闻或数据的反应与预期相反，通常用于交易者判断市场情绪。视频中提到了两次新闻失败的情况，Jason Shapiro将这作为他做空的触发因素之一。

💡波动率

波动率是衡量资产价格变动幅度的指标，高波动率意味着价格变动大，风险高。视频中提到了纳斯达克指数的波动率，用以分析市场领导者的变化。

💡技术图表

技术图表是金融市场分析中使用的一种工具，通过图形化的方式展示价格和交易量等数据，帮助交易者识别市场趋势。虽然Jason Shapiro表示他不常用传统技术分析，但他提到了技术图表在判断市场领导者方面的作用。

💡庞氏骗局

庞氏骗局是一种金融诈骗手段，新投资者的资金用于支付早期投资者的回报，而不是通过合法的商业活动获得利润。视频中Jason Shapiro将当前社会和金融市场的某些方面比作庞氏骗局，用以说明潜在的金融风险。

💡债务

债务是指个人或政府等实体所欠的款项，需要在未来偿还。视频中提到政府发行大量债务来支撑经济，这是Jason Shapiro分析市场可能面临的风险之一。

💡通货膨胀

通货膨胀是指货币购买力下降，商品和服务价格普遍上升的经济现象。视频中提到的“goldilocksy数据”指的是既显示经济增长又缺乏通货膨胀的数据，这是市场上涨的一个因素。

💡市场共识

市场共识是指大多数市场参与者对市场走势的共同看法或预期。视频中提到了市场共识可能导致的潜在问题，即如果大多数人预期市场将会上涨并据此行动，可能会引发市场的反向运动。

💡季节性因素

季节性因素是指金融市场中某些模式或趋势会随着季节或时间周期而重复出现的现象。视频中提到了季节性因素可能会影响股市的走势，这是市场参与者考虑的一个因素。

Highlights

Jason Shapiro在8月4日的视频中提到，他首次在今年做空了股市。

他根据交易者持仓报告（Commitments of Traders positioning）的数据，发现商业持仓达到了一年半以来的最空头寸，这促使他做空。

Jason认为，当市场出现新闻失败（news failure）时，是做空的好时机，他以上周四的市场表现为例。

他提到，如果市场出现回调，并且投资者在回调中买入，可能会引发真正的麻烦。

Jason认为，如果市场普遍预期将会创新高，并且投资者在预期的回调中买入，那么市场可能会面临更大的下跌风险。

他指出，当前市场出现了一些投降现象，一些对冲基金减少了空头头寸。

Jason提到，市场普遍预期股市将回调后创新高，这可能是一个过于一致的共识。

他强调，如果市场出现回调并且投资者买入，这可能会导致市场出现严重的下跌。

Jason认为，市场可能已经调整了交易方式，投资者可能在等待反弹而不是追逐高点。

他提到，如果市场出现预期的回调，并且投资者买入，这可能是市场转向的信号。

Jason指出，纳斯达克指数开始落后于其他指数，这可能是一个熊市信号。

他提到，市场在1月份的反弹中，投资者大量买入，这可能表明市场定位已经发生变化。

Jason认为，如果市场出现回调并且投资者买入，这可能会引发市场的大幅下跌。

他提到，尽管市场普遍看空，但市场的上涨并没有使这些空头改变看法。

Jason认为，如果市场出现回调，空头可能会认为这是一个买入的机会，这可能会导致市场出现真正的下跌。

他强调，尽管他提出了熊市的观点，但这些观点应该以谨慎的态度来看待，因为他是在谈论自己的投资组合。

Transcripts

foreign

[Applause]

hello today is Friday August 4th 2023. I

am Jason Shapiro with

crowdedmarketreport.com today I am going

to do something that I am almost sure

I'm going to regret but wouldn't be the

first time so let's just go ahead and do

it and what I'm going to do is I'm going

to talk about the bearish side of the

stock market and as full disclosure I.E

for the first time this year got short

the stock market last Thursday and we

can get into exactly why I did that I

got short to Dow this is the commitments

of Trader positioning for the Dow and

you can see while it looks like it's

just like neutral here on a net basis

what my stuff does is it indexes this

data so if you look at this whole period

this is the shortest that commercials

have been in over a year and a half so

my index will then show that that's sort

of Max short commercials which means Max

long for these speculators and that's

when I look to get short so I then wait

for a news failure and I took last

Thursday as that news failure some

people I think disagreed with me on that

it's always a read I thought that there

was very good data that was sort of

goldilocksy data that showed growth with

lack of inflation come out and the

market went up on that and then came

down and closed down in the deck uh you

could see that here it was this reversal

day right here the Dow actually made

like touch new highs for the year and

then finished down and my stop on that

would be closing through that high which

it came very close to doing but didn't

and now has sort of moved back down but

and whether this trade will work or not

you know just like any of my trades uh I

like to believe it has about a 38 chance

of working but if it works it will work

a lot bigger than the risk that it took

so anyway I'm talking my book here but

you know in the grand tradition of Wall

Street Let's uh let's do some book

talking right

so let's start with the um the big

picture and I haven't gotten into this

since I went bearish at the end of uh

2021 because I haven't been shorting the

stock market sort of since mid-2021 but

I mean mid-2022 but you know let's get

back into it the big picture to me and

this is the long shot obviously and it

really has nothing to do with trading

right now but let's just make the super

bearish case which is that this whole

society at this point is nothing but a

Ponzi scheme financially right you've

had a incredible amount of debt issued

by the government to prop things up I

really since oh wait and what makes it a

Ponzi scheme is that the people buying

that debt is the government they're

printing money and buying the debt that

they're issuing that's nothing but a

Ponzi scheme okay and Ponzi schemes have

a way of ending and when they do end

they end very quickly and they end very

ugly does that mean this is going to

happen no Japan's been doing this for a

very long time and their Ponzi scheme

hasn't ended although the Nikkei is now

at what it's 32 000. um it was at 39 000

in 1989.

so we're 34 years down the road and the

nikke has done nothing but but lose

money and investing in Japanese

government bonds during that time period

has gotten you nowhere either because

interest rates have been zero and even

negative at some points so while the

entire Society didn't collapse upon

itself because of the Ponzi scheme

certainly investing in those assets

didn't do you very well and that's sort

of a low probability event clearly

because obviously if there's anyone that

can keep Ponzi scheme going it's a

government that can print its own money

right which the U.S can clearly do but I

still think that the laws of physics

will tell you there's a limit to

everything and one day there will be a

limit to the amount of money that the

U.S government can print that the world

will accept right so anyway that's sort

of the big picture super bearish scary

thing right but let's get more into

reality of the here and now and I would

make sort of a few arguments and my

first argument clearly is the CO2 thing

which got me short and that's the only

argument that really I trade off of so

the combination of C Dot and news

failure and if you didn't think that the

news failure last Thursday is any valid

you could certainly argue that the news

failure today was valid the the

employment report and everything came

out pretty bullish the market was

ripping and then all of a sudden out of

nowhere it just collapsed and and closed

on lows the Dow lost over 500 points uh

from its high in about two hours which I

know it's a different percentage basis

but 508 points was the entire doubt

crash of 1987. so we had an 87 crash in

about two hours today which again is

silly because percentage-wide is totally

different but you can make the argument

today was a news failure if you'd like

to so that's first for me second for me

is like I don't do technicals really in

the classic way but one thing that I do

like technically is I like to see in a

bull market and this is on almost any

time frame including entry day right the

NASDAQ being the leader followed by the

s p followed by the Dow because the

NASDAQ is the most volatility investors

indices s p is second that was third so

the most volatile should lead what we

had here was the opposite in this last

run up right so the Dow went and tested

its high and came in like very close of

getting to a new high this past week

whereas the s p did a little worse job

of that right came a little bit further

away from getting to that high and the

NASDAQ did an even worse job of that

didn't really come anywhere near close

as those other ones so the nasdaq's

starting to lag the move and up move

this to me a bearish thing again across

many time frames but this is the this

time frame so on a technical basis the

way I look at technicals that could be

could be a point right the other points

that you can get bearish about and

clearly a lot of these people have been

talking about all year so I'm not going

to get into the whole recession coming

and blah blah blah because we know that

story 100 times over right but what I

will say is this we did see quite a bit

of capitulation in the last few weeks

according to some of the Prime Brokers

that see hedge fund flows right and I

know some Brokers and some derivative

brokers who have told me that their

hedge fund clients have really backed

off of their shorts because they're just

sick of losing money on them quite

frankly so we have that right we had

this week what I would argue was the

single most consensus thing that I heard

all week was this idea that the stock

market is going to go and make new highs

this year because it's somewhat

overbought here and because of

seasonality reasons it's probably going

to have a pullback here and then after

that pullback it will then go and make

new highs well if that's what people are

really thinking if you think the

Market's going to pull back and then

make new highs and you are going to buy

that pullback right and we don't know if

they're really going to do that we will

find out because we'll see it in the

commitments of Traders data what they

did but what I'm saying is that if in

fact we get a decent pullback here and

if in fact people end up buying that

pullback because they've been bearish

all year and they're like oh finally now

I can buy in and ten percent off highs

or eight percent or whatever it is off

the highs now I can buy it and they load

up on Longs there then I think we have

the potential for some real trouble

right we saw this the last time we saw

this was pre-covered or post covert when

covert first hit the market went down

for a few weeks people bought the crap

out of it like I didn't get a signal to

be short at the high there but two weeks

into covert before anybody knew covert

was going to be what it turned out to be

at first they all just thought it was

like bird flu or whatever so they bought

the hell out of the first dip which gave

me a chance to get shorted there and

then and then the market you know

seriously you know collapsed for for a

month or so so if we can see something

and as an aside we also had that on the

way up here like I didn't get along at

the lows in October of this year which

is typically what my stuff does right

when it works is I kind of catch the

market turn but I didn't have the the

positioning set up in October when the

market low low hit but by January people

had sold in to the rally so much that I

was getting along in January so this

might be the new normal for the

positioning in the stock market maybe

people have adjusted how they trade

rather than chasing highs and panicking

at lows they're kind of waiting for a

bounce to do it so maybe in this one

they're waiting for a pullback to get

long again don't know if that's what

they will do it's a lot easier to say

you're going to buy the dip than to

actually buy the dip when the time comes

but we will be monitoring to make it to

see if in fact that happens and if in

fact that happens I think we could be in

some serious trouble so that's really

simply my bearish argument all right I

have hesitancy about this because I do

think that the Bears that have been dug

in all year continue to be bearish and

I've been wondering what was going to

get them to stop being bearish clearly

the market going up wasn't doing it

right and the more the Mark goes up the

more bearish they get because of the

more valuations are ridiculous right so

that doesn't seem to be doing it so

maybe it will be this sort of a dip and

they'll feel that okay now we can get

out of this and we can buy the dip and

then maybe we have a real move down

that's kind of what I'm thinking in

terms of possibilities yeah all right so

anyway that's the bear idea please uh

take it somewhat with a grain of salt

because I am talking in my book but

that's kind of the idea I'm looking at

and I hope that you enjoy it and I'm

always happy to hear questions and

comments and um I hope you'll have a

profitable week and we hope to see you

on crowded market report Dot come all

right thank you