NVDA Stock - Has NVIDIA Lost Momentum?

Summary

In this Nvidia daily update, the host discusses recent stock performance, technical analysis, and potential future movements. The focus is on key indicators like the MACD and Fibonacci retracement levels, with a specific mention of the 147-149 range for potential buying opportunities. The speaker reflects on market trends, warning signs, and emphasizes cautious monitoring as Nvidia approaches key support levels. While acknowledging the stock's past rally, the host stresses the importance of patience and validation before making investment decisions, particularly in light of potential shifts in the broader semiconductor industry.

Takeaways

• 😀 Nvidia stock is showing signs of potential weakness after a long period of bullish performance.
• 📉 The MACD indicator on the weekly chart shows a lower high, which may signal a short-term or medium-term top for Nvidia stock.
• 💡 A key support level for Nvidia is around the 9 EMA on the weekly chart, roughly between $169 and $170.
• 🔢 The 382 Fibonacci retracement level on the weekly chart sits around $147–$149, which could be a key price point for potential buying opportunities.
• 🔄 The stock is expected to move in a choppy, zigzag pattern before a potential bounce or further drop, as opposed to a straight decline.
• 🛑 If Nvidia stock falls below $140, it could signal a deeper problem, but it's still far from that level.
• 🔍 On the daily chart, Nvidia is showing some weakness, with lower highs and a bearish engulfing candle after a significant sell-off.
• 🚨 The stock's next potential support level on the daily chart is around $174, where previous resistance was seen.
• ⚠️ The SMH semiconductor ETF has also printed a bearish candle, signaling potential trouble for the semiconductor industry, including Nvidia.
• 📊 To get excited about a potential bounce in Nvidia, the stock would need to show a higher low on the MACD and stronger validation through price action and volume.
• ⏳ The stock may take time to consolidate and build up momentum, as the exponential moving averages are widely spread apart, indicating a potential delay before any meaningful movement.

Q & A

What is the primary focus of the video?

The video primarily focuses on analyzing Nvidia stock, reviewing recent price action, technical indicators, potential support levels, and providing insights on possible short-term and medium-term movements.

What technical indicators does the creator mention in evaluating Nvidia stock?

The creator mentions the MACD, SMI, exponential moving averages (9MA and 21MA), Fibonacci retracement levels, and volume as key indicators for analyzing Nvidia stock.

Why is the lower high on the MACD significant according to the video?

The lower high on the MACD is significant because historically it has indicated short-term or medium-term tops in Nvidia stock, suggesting potential weakness or a pause in the rally.

What weekly support levels does the creator identify for Nvidia?

The weekly support levels mentioned are the 9-week exponential moving average around $169-$170 and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level around $147-$150, which the creator sees as a potential buying range.

What does the daily chart indicate about Nvidia's short-term trend?

The daily chart shows some weakness, including a lower low despite recent green days, a massive bearish engulfing candle, and closing below the 9MA and 21MA, signaling potential short-term downward pressure.

Why does the creator suggest caution before entering Nvidia stock now?

Caution is advised because the exponential moving averages are spread apart, the MACD shows elevated levels, and the stock has displayed early signs of weakness, meaning the risk versus reward is not favorable at the moment.

What potential support level on the daily chart is highlighted for Nvidia?

A daily support level around $174 is highlighted, which aligns with previous resistance and the bottom of a support channel, serving as a key short-term level to monitor.

How does the creator describe the potential movement of Nvidia stock going forward?

The creator expects choppiness, zigzagging, and consolidation in the short term rather than a straight drop or rally, indicating typical stock behavior with possible weak bounces before any significant movement.

What does the video say about the broader semiconductor market, such as the SMH ETF?

The video notes that the SMH semiconductor ETF is showing bearish signals, including shooting star candles, and if it closes below last week’s low around $293, it could indicate potential weakness for the broader semiconductor industry.

What is the creator's general approach to identifying potential bullish reversals in Nvidia?

The approach involves looking for convergence of exponential moving averages, MACD forming higher lows, bullish candle patterns like hammer candles, and signs of compression or congestion, which may indicate the stock is ready to reverse higher.

Why does the creator mention the importance of patience with Nvidia stock?

Patience is important because even when a stock shows early weakness or loss of momentum, it can take time for consolidation and meaningful patterns to form before a clear trade opportunity emerges.

What does the creator suggest as the 'exciting' price range to consider buying Nvidia?

The exciting price range mentioned for potential buying is around $147-$150, near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, where exponential moving averages could align, offering a possible weekly bull-flag setup.