NVDA Stock - Bigger Move Coming Soon?

Summary

In this Nvidia daily update, the host discusses the company's stock performance, technical analysis, and potential future movements. He highlights Nvidia's resilience compared to AMD, focusing on key levels like the 9 EMA and Fibonacci retracement. The analysis includes short-term predictions based on recent price action, potential bullish or bearish trends, and a long-term outlook. The host also touches on the importance of past resistance levels and market sentiment, concluding that Nvidia may retest past highs in the coming months. He offers insights into options flow and shares personal thoughts on stock movements, including a mention of Duolingo stock.

Takeaways

• 😀 The video provides an update on Nvidia's stock, discussing its current status and potential future movements.
• 📈 The presenter highlights Nvidia's strong performance compared to AMD, with Nvidia holding its ground despite AMD's decline.
• 💡 A key technical analysis tool mentioned is the 9 exponential moving average (EMA), which has been a consistent support level for Nvidia.
• 📊 The script mentions the formation of an inside day candle, suggesting a potential breakout or breakdown depending on the breach of yesterday's high or low.
• 🧮 A potential bullish scenario is expected if Nvidia reclaims the level of $181, especially above $183, which could lead to a price target of $190.
• 📉 On the other hand, if Nvidia falls below yesterday's low, it could signal a bearish trend, possibly testing the 21 EMA and the rising channel's bottom trendline.
• 🔮 The presenter expresses confidence that Nvidia may eventually retest its previous all-time highs, although the timing of this remains uncertain.
• 📅 The script draws comparisons with Tesla's past performance, suggesting that Nvidia may follow a similar path, eventually revisiting lower price ranges before moving higher again.
• 🎯 The MACD indicator is used to assess potential exhaustion in buyer sentiment, and the presenter is monitoring this for signs of a shift in momentum.
• 📉 There is an acknowledgment that market movements will take time, with the potential for a retest of key levels unfolding over weeks or months, not immediately.
• 💬 The presenter briefly discusses options flow, indicating a slightly bullish sentiment but no clear aggressive trend, with no major surprises in the market's direction.

Q & A

What is the main focus of this video update?

The video primarily focuses on providing an update and analysis of Nvidia's stock performance, discussing technical aspects, market conditions, and potential future movements of Nvidia's stock.

What is the purpose of the YouTube membership mentioned in the video?

The YouTube membership provides exclusive access to the creator's technical analysis, stock updates, charts, and options flow, shared regularly throughout the day as the market is trading.

What are the different tiers of the YouTube membership, and what do they include?

There are three membership tiers: the first tier ($3/month) includes Tesla updates, the second tier ($5/month) includes both Tesla and Nvidia updates, and the third tier ($7/month) includes updates for both Tesla and Nvidia, plus non-Tesla and non-Nvidia updates.

What is the current trend in Nvidia's stock price, according to the analysis?

Nvidia's stock is holding relatively strong, especially compared to AMD's performance, despite some fluctuations. The stock is finding support at key levels, such as the 9 exponential moving average (EMA).

What is the significance of the 'inside day candle' mentioned in the video?

An 'inside day candle' refers to a candlestick pattern where the entire range of the current day is within the range of the previous day. This suggests a potential for either a breakout or a breakdown depending on which direction the price moves.

How is the MACD indicator behaving, and what does this suggest?

The MACD indicator is showing lower lows despite the stock price being up, which suggests that there may be a lack of momentum and potential bearish signals, though it hasn't fully confirmed a downtrend yet.

What are the key levels to watch for potential rejection or breakout in Nvidia's stock?

The key level to watch is the green Fibonacci resistance around $181, where a rejection could lead to a move back down. If the stock breaks above $183 and sets new highs, it could continue upwards towards $190, especially as earnings approach.

What is the significance of the 'rising channel' and how does it impact the stock's movement?

The rising channel represents the trendline that Nvidia's stock is following. If the stock breaks below the channel or loses the support of key EMAs (like the 9 and 21 EMAs), it could signal a potential decline, but if it continues to hold, it could keep pushing higher.

What does the speaker suggest might happen in the future, regarding Nvidia's stock price?

The speaker suggests that Nvidia's stock could eventually retest previous all-time highs, particularly if the stock experiences a sharp pullback. However, the timing of this is uncertain and could take weeks or months.

What factors would signal a possible reversal or a deeper pullback in Nvidia's stock?

A reversal or deeper pullback could be signaled by a breakdown of key support levels, such as the loss of the 21 EMA or the rising channel trendline. Additionally, indicators like the MACD showing lower highs and a very overbought stochastic/SMI could suggest buyer exhaustion.