Why would Macron call snap elections after far-right's big win in EU vote? | DW News
Summary
TLDRフランスのマクロン大統領は、欧州選挙で極右派に大敗した後、政治的な未来を賭けて、急遽国会選挙を宣言しました。極右のナショナル・ラリー党が30%以上の得票率で勝利すると予想され、マクロンのリベラル派は打撃を受けています。マクロンは国民に信頼を寄せ、正しい選択を望むと述べ、国民対決を避けず、共和国の魂をかけた闘いが始まります。
Takeaways
- 😕 マクロン大統領は、欧州選挙で遠右派に大敗した後、政治的な未来に賭けをかけました。
- 🗳️ 国民投票での勝利を収めたマリーヌ・ル・ペンの「国民の集会」党が、マクロンの「再生の輪」党をはるかに上回る30%以上の得票率を目指しています。
- 🎲 マクロン大統領は、欧州選挙の出口調査が彼の党が遠右派に大敗する見込みであることを明らかにしてから、政治的な賭けをして即時国会選挙を宣言しました。
- 🏛️ 国民投票の結果を受けて、マクロン大統領は国民に政治的な選択を委ねるという「信頼の行為」と位置づけています。
- 🤔 国民投票の勝利を求めるマクロン大統領は、選挙を「合理的な中道」と「極右派」の選択と見なす人々を期待していますが、これは彼が思っている通りにはいかないとの懸念もあります。
- 🏆 国民投票での勝利により、国民の信頼を得た場合、国民の集会党は政権を握ることができます。
- 🛑 国民投票の結果を受けて、パリの共和国広場での反遠右派デモが、今後の闘争の兆しを示しています。
- 📚 春マラは、LSEのヨーロッパ政治のフェローであり、EUの遠右政治の専門家として、マクロンの即時選挙決定は驚くべき政治的賭けと見なされています。
- 🔄 春マラ氏によると、遠右派は、過去数十年の傾向を続けて、EUの政治的風景の一部として定着していると分析しています。
- 🏆 国民投票で国民の集会党が勝利し、マリーヌ・ル・ペンが首相に就任した場合、フランスの政治は「共同内閣」という形で混乱する可能性があります。
- 🤝 ヤコブ・ロス氏は、マクロン大統領が即時選挙を宣言したのは大きな賭けであり、彼の政治的読解が過去の選挙では正確でなかったことを指摘しています。
Q & A
マクロン大統領はなぜ急遽国民投票を呼びかけたのですか?
-マクロン大統領は、欧州選挙での遠右派の勝利を受けて、彼の党が敗北する出口ポールを明かした後、国民投票を急遽呼びかけました。これは政治的賭けであり、彼はフランス国民が正しい選択を下す能力に信頼しています。
国民投票の結果、マクロン大統領の党はどのような割合を獲得しましたか?
-マクロン大統領の党は、選挙での結果が遠右派の国民集会党の2倍以上の30%以上の獲得を予想しています。
国民集会党の党首であるマリーヌ・ル・ペンは国民投票で何を主張していますか?
-マリーヌ・ル・ペンは、国民投票で国民の信頼を得る準備ができていると主張し、大量移民の終わりやフランス人の購買力を優先させることを誓いました。
マクロン大統領の急遽国民投票の決定はなぜ意外と思われますか?
-マクロン大統領は数ヶ月間、これは国民投票ではないと主張しており、国民投票が政府に影響を与えるとは言っていませんでした。しかし、急遽国民投票を呼びかけたのは、彼のキャンペーン中に行っていた全ての主張に反するため、意外と思われます。
マクロン大統領が国民投票で期待する結果とは何ですか?
-マクロン大統領は、国民が選挙を中道と遠右翼との戦いと見做し、中道を選択することを期待しています。
国民集会党が国民投票に勝利した場合、マクロン大統領の役割はどのように変わりますか?
-国民集会党が勝利し、マリーヌ・ル・ペンが首相に就任した場合、フランスでは2000年代初頭以来見られなかった共同内閣が起こる可能性があります。
ヨーロッパ議会選挙での遠右派の支持の高まりはどのように評価されていますか?
-遠右派の支持は、過去数十年の傾向の継続であり、彼らのアイデアがますます標準化されるようになっています。
マクロン大統領はなぜ遠右派と戦うために急遽国民投票を呼びかけたのですか?
-マクロン大統領は、遠右派が国民投票で勝利し、マリーヌ・ル・ペンやジョルダン・バルデルが首相の座に就くのを防ぎたいと考えています。
マクロン大統領の急遽国民投票の決定はどの程度のリスクを伴っていますか?
-マクロン大統領の決定は大きな政治的賭けであり、彼は過去の選挙で国民の気分を誤解したことがあるため、この決定が正しいかどうか疑問があります。
遠右派が国民投票で勝利し、首相に就任した場合、フランスの政治はどのように変わりますか?
-遠右派が首相に就任した場合、マクロン大統領は外交政策や安全保障政策においては上位を守るかもしれませんが、内政においては混乱が予想されます。
マクロン大統領は急遽国民投票を呼びかけた理由は何ですか?
-マクロン大統領は、遠右派の勝利を受けて、国民の信頼を得るために急遽国民投票を呼びかけました。彼は国民が正しい選択を下す能力に信頼しています。
国民投票の結果、マクロン大統領の党が敗北した場合、フランスの政治はどのように進展する見込みですか?
-マクロン大統領の党が敗北した場合、遠右派が政治の中心に位置することになり、マクロン大統領は共同内閣の形で政治を続ける可能性があります。
Outlines
🏆 マクロン大統領の政治的賭け
フランスのマクロン大統領は、欧州選挙での遠右派の勝利に続いて、政治的な未来を賭けた。国民投票での勝利を収めたマリーヌ・ルペンの国民集会党が、マクロンのリベラルな復興党を大きく上回る支持を得たことを受けて、急遽議会選挙を宣言。国民集会党は30%以上の得票を予想されており、マクロンは国民に正しい選択を求める信頼を表明。一方、国民集会党のバデルはマクロンを弱い大統領と位置づけ、国民投票に挑戦。マクロンは国民の選択を信頼し、遠右派と中心派の間に区別をつけるつもりで、この政治的賭けに挑む。
🌐 欧州の遠右派の台頭とマクロンの対応
マクロンの急遽選挙宣言は、彼がこれまでの選挙戦略と異なる政治的賭けとして捉えられており、国民が遠右派と中心派の選択肢の中で中心派を選ぶことを期待している。しかし、国民集会党が議席を大幅に増やす可能性も存在し、マクロンの期待は叶えられないかもしれない。もし国民集会党が勝利し、ルペンが首相に就任する可能性がある場合、フランスの政治は「共同内閣」という形で混乱を招くことになる。欧州全体で見ると、遠右派は支持を定着させており、彼らの政策も徐々に主流化されている。
🤔 マクロンの政治的賭けに対する疑問
マクロンの急遽選挙宣言は国内外の観測者や分析家、甚だしきに至っては彼の自民党内でも大きな驚きを引き起こした。選挙の結果を受けて、マクロンは3年間の残りの任期内、無力な大統領とならずに、国民を再び動員し、遠右派に対抗する共和国の前線を築くことを望んでいる。しかし、彼が過去の選挙で国民の気分を誤解していたように、今回の選挙でも正しい政治的気分を読み取っているかどうかは疑問が残る。もし遠右派が勝利し、首相に就任した場合、マクロンは外交・安全保障政策においては依然として主導権を握るが、内政においては混乱が予想される。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡マクロン
💡国民投票
💡急遽の国会選挙
💡極右政党
💡国民集会党
💡政策
💡選挙戦術
💡共和国広場での抗議
💡政治的賭け
💡連邦議会
💡共和国前
Highlights
法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙在欧洲选举中败给极右翼后,决定在本月底进行全国快闪投票。
玛丽娜·勒庞的国家集会党在欧洲选举中取得重大胜利,预计在全国选票中占比超过30%,是马克龙的复兴党两倍多。
马克龙宣布快闪议会选举,是一次政治赌博,这一决定是在出口民调显示他的党派将受到极右翼国家集会的重击后作出的。
马克龙表示信任法国人民能够为自己和未来几代人做出正确的选择。
国家集会党领导人乔丹·巴德尔挑战马克龙,要求他将国家带到投票箱前。
勒庞和巴德尔希望利用公众对马克龙政策的不满,在选举中取得更大的胜利。
巴德尔表示,如果法国人信任他们,他们准备行使权力,重建国家,结束大规模移民,提高法国人的购买力。
巴黎的反极右抗议者在共和广场展示了即将到来的斗争。
专家分析马克龙的快闪选举决定是一个意外的政治赌博。
马克龙希望法国人民在快闪投票中选择合理中心,反对极端右翼。
如果国家集会党在议会选举中获胜,马克龙可能会面临与总理共治的局面。
自2002年以来,法国还没有出现过总统与议会多数党不同的共治情况。
专家认为,极右翼在欧洲议会选举中的成功是其在欧洲政治格局中地位的巩固,而非突然的崛起。
主流政党开始采纳极右翼的一些标志性政策,这表明其思想已被正常化。
马克龙的快闪选举决定在党内也引起了震惊,包括总理加布里埃尔·阿塔尔在内的许多人对此并不知情。
马克龙希望通过快闪选举再次动员法国选民,建立一个反对极右的全国阵线。
如果国家集会党赢得议会选举,马克龙可能会在内政上失去控制,而极右翼可能会在移民等议题上施加影响。
Transcripts
we begin in France where president
Emanuel mcon has rolled the dice on his
political future after being trounced by
the far right in the European elections
he's called to snap National Poll for
later this month following a major
victory in the EU vote for Marine Le
Pen's National rally party it's
projected to take over 30% of the
Nationwide ballot that's more than
double that of macron's liberal
Renaissance
party this was a political shock the
nobody had been expecting the French
President addressing the nation
announcing a snap parliamentary
election a political gamble that came
after exit polls had revealed his party
was on course for a hammering at the
hands of the far right National
rally this is a serious and weighty
decision but above all it is an act of
trust trust in you my de compatriots in
the ability of the French people to make
the just choice for themselves and for
future
Generations that announcement followed
an election Challenge from this man
Jordan bardel the president of the
national rally party who described
macron as a weakened president as he
called for him to take the country to
the polls in front of jubilant party
supporters he and party leader Marine Le
Pen had been banking on growing public
frustration with the French President
and his policies to deliver a result at
The Ballot Box and they now focused on
securing an even bigger
Victory we are ready to exercise power
if the French trust us during these
future legislative elections we are
ready to rebuild the country ready to
put an end to mass immigration ready to
make the purchasing power of the French
a priority
to begin the country's
reindustrialization and the battle lines
for what comes next are already being
drawn these anti-ar right protesters in
paris's plasa Republic giving the first
indication of the fight ahead a fight
that the French president has cast as a
struggle for the soul of the
[Applause]
country spring in Mar La M here she's a
fellow in European politics at the
London School of economics and she's an
expert on Far Right politics in the
European Union thanks for being with us
Martin how big of a surprise is Emmanuel
mccon Emanuel mcc's decision to call
Snap
elections well Emanuel macron's decision
to call Snap elections is actually quite
surprising because for months mcon has
been saying that this is not a national
election it will not have National
consequences it has been Le Pen saying
that this should be treated as an
election that will have consequences on
the government so it was quite a
surprising decision precisely because it
went against everything that he had been
saying during the campaign and it also
looks like a political gamble of sworts
now mccon is saying he's confident that
the French people will make the right
choice in the snap poll but what does he
mean by that and what can he expect to
gain from this move
it's quite an interesting question
because it seems like he expects that
people will see this election as an
election that hits a reasonable Center
against uh an extremist far right and
that people when given the choice
between the far right and the center
will decide for the center um the this
might not actually work in the way that
he thinks he will and there is a risk
that the uh National rally could end up
with a much bigger delegation than what
they have right now and potentially even
uh in actual
government now man wcon is not uh due to
leave office until
2027 uh that would be his last second
and last term if Marine Le Pen's Paul
rri National rally party were to win the
French parliamentary election later this
month that might put her in as prime
minister how would that
work it would probably be quite
uncomfortable so this is what the French
call cohabitation it is not unheard of
but it hasn't happened since
2002 when the length of the
Parliamentary um term and the
presidential term were basically made
the same um until 2002 presidents were
in place for seven years parliamentary
majorities were for 5 years so that
meant that you could have a president
and a parliament that did not belong to
the same political party um this hasn't
happened for a while the good thing for
Mom with the potential cohabitation is
that it does help him to divide the
responsibility of power and when things
go wrong he doesn't have to shoulder the
whole responsibility for it of course it
also means that as a president he has a
lot less leeway and a lot less control
over what the parliament actually does
now you spent a lot of time looking at
farri parties in Europe uh let's broaden
out our perspective here and look at
what's happened in all 27 European
member states the far right has surged
in support in these European
parliamentary elections what do you make
of
that I wouldn't necessarily call this a
surge it looks a lot more like
consolidation so the farite has been
doing better and better in elections
both at the national and at the European
level um and so this really is a is more
of a continuity in terms of what we've
seen throughout the last couple of
decades um what it does tell us is
really that the farite is at this point
a fairly natural or normal at least part
of the uh European political landscape
they are becoming more and more like uh
normal parties and their ideas have
become
normalized um and this is also Beyond
how well they have done because a large
part of the mainstream has also started
adopting some of their Flagship
policies Mar from the London School of
economics in Paris thank you very
much thank
you for more now I'm joined from Paris
by yakob Ross from the German Council on
Foreign Relations yakob what do you make
of Emanuel macon's decision to call Snap
parliamentary
elections well it comes as a huge
surprise um not only to external
observers in the media or analysts but
also for the people in president macon's
own party apparently prime minister
Gabrielle atal didn't know about this
plan that had been drafted apparently
since the end of May approximately until
yesterday evening uh so now everybody
including once again in maron's own Camp
is is struggling to prepare for SNAP
elections that will come very rapidly on
on June
30th well for many Outsiders this looks
like a huge political gamble for
Emmanuel mccon what's he betting on
what's he hoping will happen in this
election yes I mean it it is a huge
gamble if you look at the electoral map
from yesterday the far right R won
approximately every region in in France
in terms of the direct votes in the
European elections yesterday um
president M first of all does not want
to end up as a lame duck within the
three years remaining until the next
national elections presidential
elections and what would have been the
legislative elections and he homes to
once more and one final uh time to to
mobilize French uh voters uh to um to
unite against the far right to build a
national uh front or republican front as
he calls it and to unite um with uh
parties on the center right Republican
with the socialists on the center left
uh to um avoid having the far right um
with Marine Leen and Jordan badela
coming into what what could be the the
prime minister's office in Martino and
then in 2027 winning the presidential
elections so mcon seems to be counting
on the center left and the center right
to come together in this snap election
later this month to keep the far right
out of power in France
do you think that mccon is really
reading the political mood in France
correctly well there's certainly a lot
of doubt about this since he didn't read
the mood correctly in the past elections
the European elections right now uh his
lead candidate Valerie AER struggled and
then president MC himself his prime
minister Gabrielle atal both intervened
at the later or late stages of this uh
electoral process
it didn't turn the tide um as you said
before the r dealt a crushing defeat to
the presidential Camp so many people and
many people in France uh are really uh
at shock to a certain degree and are
thinking that this is too big of a risk
to call these elections in in the
current
situation well now mcon is likely to
stay in power as you mentioned until
2027 that's when his current term ends
uh what if the fall right does win the
Parliamentary election later this month
and their candidate becomes prime
minister who would have the upper hand
there
politically well that's the big question
I mean there's only so many presidents
uh president Shirak uh in the 1980s
1990s covern with the socialists uh then
there was uh one other instance of what
the French call cabit so a president
from one party who lost the majority in
part Parliament and is thus forced to to
make a coalition with another party
president M would certainly guard the
upper hand in terms of foreign policy
decisions security policy which is
probably a big important thing for
Europe right now for ukrainians watching
these developments um with the war
ongoing um but in interior politics uh
it would certainly be messy the with
whichever candidate then in the prime
minister's office it is expected that
this would be Jordan Vela the lead
candidate for the European elections uh
would certainly try to impose that
topics and that tone in interior
politics and the debates on migration
for example that's the first uh policy
field that Marine Leen talked about
yesterday evening yakob thank you very
much for taking time to talk with us
today that was yakob loss from the
German Council on Foreign Relations in
Paris
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