'Russian roulette': Macron calls snap French elections amid gains for far right • FRANCE 24
Summary
TLDRフランス大統領のエマニュエル・マクロンは、極右政党の台頭を抑えるため、3週間以内に早期の立法選挙を呼びかけました。選挙結果ではマリーヌ・ルペンの党が予想される勝利により、マクロンは国家統一を求める動きが左翼に見られます。しかし、左翼統一は困難で、遠藤党のリーダーは統一を拒否しています。一方、マクロンの党は共和国党との同盟を望んでおり、選挙は6月30日に第1ラウンドが開始されます。専門家アンドリュー・スミスは、マクロンの戦略が極右派にリードを与える可能性があると分析しています。
Takeaways
- 🗳️ フランス大統領エマニュエル・マクロンは、極右派の台頭を阻止しようと、早朝の議会選挙を呼びかけました。
- 📊 ヨーロッパ選挙の結果によれば、マリーヌ・ルペンの党が予想される最大の得票数を得る可能性があります。
- 😨 マクロンは、何も起こらなかったかのように続けられないと表明し、選挙で極右派の勢力を抑制することを目指しています。
- 🤔 極右派がフランス議会で多数派になることは考えにくいが、彼らは議席を獲得し、政治的分断を招く可能性があると指摘されています。
- 🔄 左翼政党は統一を目指しているが、フランスの不屈党は統一を拒否しており、選挙での協力は難しい状況が予想されます。
- 📈 共和国の前進党は、選挙で勝利を目指しており、他の共和党派と同盟を組む可能性もあります。
- 🏆 6月30日に第1ラウンドの投票が行われることが決まっており、選挙戦は急速に動き出しています。
- 🤝 左翼政党は社会環境問題や公的な討論の尊厳に深く関心を寄せる同盟を形成することが望まれていますが、これには多くの課題があります。
- 👥 マクロンの陣営は、選挙戦に向けて戦略を練り、極右派との第2ラウンドでの対決で民主主義の側を選ばれることを期待しています。
- 🇪🇺 ヨーロッパ選挙では、自由民主主義を支持する政党が最大の政党であり、極右派は予想以上に進展しなかったことが明らかになりました。
- 💡 マクロンは、選挙戦を通じて欧州改革を促進することを目指していると見られていますが、結果は不透明な状況が続いています。
Q & A
フランスのエマニュエル・マクロン大統領が早期の立法選挙を呼びかけた理由は何ですか?
-マクロン大統領は、極右の台頭に対抗するために早期の立法選挙を呼びかけました。
マリーヌ・ル・ペンの党が予想される選挙結果はどのようなものですか?
-マリーヌ・ル・ペンの党は、他のどの党よりも2倍の票を獲得する見込みです。
マクロン大統領が議会を解散した後、左派の反応はどうでしたか?
-左派は、極右に対抗するために団結する必要があると述べましたが、フランス不屈党の指導者は団結の考えを拒否しました。
フランス不屈党が左派の統一を拒否する理由は何ですか?
-フランス不屈党の指導者は、団結の目的や基盤が不明確であるとして、左派の統一に反対しています。
マクロン大統領の党が右派共和党と同盟を結ぼうとしている理由は何ですか?
-マクロン大統領の党は、極右に対抗するために右派共和党と同盟を結ぶことを望んでいます。
この早期選挙のスピードが与える影響は何ですか?
-早期選挙のスピードは、候補者の登録期限がすぐに迫っており、政党間の動きを迅速にし、選挙の動向を大きく変える可能性があります。
マクロン大統領がこの選挙を早急に呼びかけた意図は何ですか?
-マクロン大統領は、左派が団結しないと見込み、自分の党が選挙に勝てると考えている可能性があります。また、右派共和党が自分の党に引き寄せられることを期待しています。
この選挙がマクロン大統領の計算に基づいたリスクである理由は何ですか?
-マクロン大統領は、極右が議会で大きな勢力を獲得するリスクを負いながらも、自分の党が選挙に勝つことで政治的地位を強化しようとしています。
この選挙がフランスの政治に与える可能性のある影響は何ですか?
-選挙結果次第では、フランスの政治がさらに分裂し、政府の運営がより困難になる可能性があります。また、2027年の大統領選挙に向けて極右が強い立場を築く可能性があります。
この選挙がフランスのEU改革への取り組みに与える影響は何ですか?
-もし極右が勢力を増すと、フランスのEU改革への取り組みが弱まり、欧州議会におけるフランスの影響力が低下する可能性があります。
Outlines
🗳️ マクロン大統領の早朝選挙決定と政界の動向
フランス大統領のエマニュエル・マクロンは、極右派の勢いを受けて早朝選挙を呼びかけました。欧州選挙の結果から、マリーン・ル・ペンの党が予想される最大得票を2倍に達する可能性があることを受けて、マクロンは「何もなかったかのように続けることはできない」と表明し、選挙戦を決意しました。しかし、極右派がフランス議会の過半数を獲得することは非常に低いと思われます。しかし、彼らは議席を獲得し、政治の分断を深める可能性があります。これにより、フランスの政治家たちは選挙に対処する方法を急いで検討しており、政敵と組んで多くの議席を獲得しようとしています。左派の統一が求められていますが、左派の党は統一に反対する立場もあります。選挙は6月30日に予定されており、政治家たちは急速に動いています。
🤔 選挙戦の戦略とマクロンの賭け
マクロン政権は選挙戦で左派の統一を目指していますが、左派の党は統一に消極的です。マクロンは、国民の共和党との同盟を望んでおり、国民の共和党は選挙に参加していますが、同盟を断っています。選挙戦は急速に進んでおり、候補者の登録期限が迫っています。マクロンは、選挙戦を通じて極右派の勢いを抑えることを目指していますが、彼の賭けは非常に大きいです。もし選挙戦がうまくいかない場合、マクロン政権は混乱し、2027年の大統領選挙に向けて極右派の支持を高める可能性があります。欧州選挙の結果は、フランス国内の政治に大きな影響を与えています。
🌍 欧州選挙の結果とフランスの未来
欧州選挙の結果は、フランスの政治情勢に大きな影響を与えています。マクロンは、選挙戦を通じて極右派の勢いを抑えることを目指していますが、その結果、フランスの政治はより分断される可能性があります。マクロンの賭けは、2027年の大統領選挙に向けて極右派の支持を高める可能性があります。一方、欧州議会の結果は、自由主義的中心派が勝利し、極右派は進展しませんでした。しかし、フランス、ドイツ、イタリアなどの主要なメンバー国では、極右派は強い支持を獲得しています。マクロンは、選挙戦を通じて欧州改革を促進することを目指していますが、その結果が不透明です。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡早期議会選挙
💡極右の台頭
💡国民議会の解散
💡左派連合
💡右派共和党
💡国民連合
💡議会の分裂
💡同盟形成
💡欧州議会選挙
💡共同体の形成
Highlights
法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙宣布提前举行立法选举,以应对极右翼势力的崛起。
欧洲选举结果显示,玛丽娜·勒庞的政党预计将获得比其他任何政党多一倍的选票。
马克龙表示,他不能对选举结果无动于衷,将努力遏制极右翼势力。
尽管极右翼不太可能在法国议会中获得多数,但他们可能会取得进展,使国家治理更加困难。
法国政治家现在正急于决定如何应对选举,可能与对手政党结盟以赢得尽可能多的席位。
左翼政治领导人表示必须团结起来对抗极右翼,但梅朗雄的“不屈服的法国”党反对统一左翼。
两年前左翼政党曾同意联合,但因加沙战争和欧盟选举期间的敌意而分裂。
马克龙的党希望与右翼共和党结盟,但共和党拒绝了任何形式的联盟。
法国总统为第一轮投票设定的日期是6月30日,距离现在只有三周时间。
专家分析,马克龙的这一举措是一个巨大的政治赌博,可能会改变选举的动态。
马克龙可能在赌左翼无法团结起来,而他的党在欧洲选举中只获得了7%的选票。
如果左翼不能团结,他们可能会在这次立法选举中失败。
马克龙可能希望在第二轮选举中,选民会选择他的党而不是极右翼。
如果马克龙的赌博失败,可能会出现极右翼的总理与他合作的情况。
专家预测,极右翼可能会在议会中获得大量席位,但不太可能获得执政多数。
这种政治赌博可能会使马克龙在2027年的总统选举中处于不利地位。
马克龙可能希望通过这次选举削弱极右翼的政治影响力,为2027年的选举做准备。
欧洲选举结果显示,自由民主的中心在布鲁塞尔保持稳定,而极右翼并没有取得预期的进展。
在匈牙利,奥尔班的党面临真正的挑战,这可能有助于欧洲议会的改革。
专家预测,法国的政治动荡可能会持续,导致国家治理更加困难。
马克龙的这一举措可能会在2027年的总统选举中为极右翼提供优势。
Transcripts
the biggest gamble then of his political
career that as France's president
Emanuel macron has called early
legislative elections for less than
three weeks time as he tries to combat
The Surge of the far right as European
election results show the party of
Marine Le Pan is projected to win twice
as many votes as any other party maon
saying he could not carry on as if
nothing had happened he'll aim to keep
that right surge at Bay the fear though
that whilst it is highly unlikely to
lead to a far-right majority in the
French Parliament they will make gains
making it well perhaps more fractur and
the country more impossible to govern it
leaves France's politicians now
scrambling as well to decide how they
will tackle these elections with the
possibility of forming groups with rival
parties to try to win as many seats as
possible well let's begin with this
report then from Shirley
siton president Emanuel Macon had barely
ended his statement dissolving the
National Assembly that political leaders
announced their strategy on the left
side of the political Spectrum several
MPS said there is no other choice but to
unite
forces the left must unite we have to
stop the so we can face the far
right but the leader of this MP's own
far-left France unbowed party rejects
the idea of unifying the
left what's the use of bleeding together
Unity Unity I'm afraid what what would
be the basis for this what would be the
purpose left-wing parties agreed to join
forces two years ago ahead of
parliamentary elections but the alliance
splintered over the war in Gaza and
acrimony continued during the EU
elections with a socialist candidate the
main target of an aggressive France
unbowed party campaign finding common
ground for the snap elections will be
difficult this Alliance will be B on an
ideological line that is social
environmental and deeply attached to the
Dignity of public debate without
Outburst or
[Music]
violence while the left prepares to face
off with a far right president macon's
party hopes to seal an alliance with the
right Republican party whose MPS are
also being woed by the national
rally Republican party has refused any
form of
Alliance France needs the right the
Republican right and we will be there on
Election Day and the dates set by the
French president for the first round of
voting is three weeks away on June
30th well let's analyze then all the
latest results for you for now I'm
joined by French modern history expert
and lecturer in Liberal Arts at Queen
Mary University of London Andrew Smith
Andrew great to have you with us on the
program today let's start here in France
then I mean there had been rumors hadn't
there that maon might do this if the
polls uh came to be true and dissolve
parliament most people were dismissing
those rumors and then he went ahead and
did
it yeah uh something of a surprise last
night um I think some people thought uh
that there was likely to be dissolution
before 2027 um but I don't think you
could find many people who would have
gambled on it being before the Olympics
uh you know as they used to say on the
TV show I think Humphrey applebe used to
advise his Minister that um he was Brave
if he was doing something it was going
to lose votes courageous if he was going
to do something it would lose an
election but I think he'd be nominating
macron for the quadar at this rate it is
a huge gamble um and it really really
puts uh the you know the starting pistol
has been fired for a very quick election
as well and even the speed at which this
happens is going to play into changing
some of the Dynamics which are actually
going on we heard there of course about
the the race to form some kind of uh
leftwing Alliance to rebuild newz and of
course we know the biggest obstacle to
that is melon um the creator of the
France anumi instead we've heard from
people like FR rufan um even Olivier for
the head of the Socialist Party who are
much more keen to try and put something
together but I think it's Friday that
people have the deadline to actually
register candidates so this is really
really quick stuff and it's caught a lot
of people on The Hop but of course
that's part of the calculation and this
has been a small team working on it in
the L they reckon about 10 people 10
advisers working on this close to some
of the people in the sarui camp people
like jard darmana um and this has really
caught a lot of people by surprise I
think almost everyone has been caught
surprised by the speed at which this has
been called I've heard so many different
rumors and theories about why he might
have done it what do you think what's
your
view well I mean it's tough isn't it
because what you have to imagine um mro
is is not a man of small ambition or
self-regard um this does not this looks
like he is campaigning for an election
that he thinks his party can win so we
take that as a starting kind of idea um
he surely is gambling that on the first
hand he doesn't think the left will be
able to come together and let's be
honest if they don't they're largely TOS
in this legislative election um if they
he believes that he might be able to do
something with Le Republic they scored
only 7% in the uh the European elections
last night um so he's thinking maybe
that they might get you know um kind of
drawn towards his orbit and he hopes
that really in a series of second round
duels between his candidates on the
majority and other kind of Republican
parties L the Republicans and the uh
National rally that people would opt for
the kind of the democratic side of
things rather than the far right in
those second round Jewels but what a
gamble this is um it's caught so many of
his own MPS uh his own deputies in uh by
surprise and people are saying it's a
terrible kind of H decision H it looks
really to be something quite quite
difficult y Bon PR who's the president
of the National Assembly of course has
been talking about the difficulties
she's been having trying to kind of
build alliances to work across those
party divides let's not forget when're
looking at hung Parliament at the moment
it's not been plain sailing for the
majority it's not been governing well
let's say it's been forced to do deals
on literally everything macr needed to
call some kind of something um because
he's going to face a series of no
confidence votes in trying to pass the
budget for 2025 this had to happen at
some point but the speed at which this
happens really making things
difficult if it doesn't quite work out
for Emanuel macron one suggestion that
I've heard a few times is that if it
doesn't work out uh the far right do do
well you finish up with Marine Le Pen or
Jordan badela potentially as the the
Prime Minister working with Emanuel
macron they then have three years which
is really going to be difficult and
maybe complete chaos which means that in
three years time when we come to the
next presidential elections it means
that the far right is just as unpopular
as everybody else yeah absolutely I mean
the the far right have enjoyed this
Parliament they've been able to sit back
in their armchairs play Rec interrupt
everything the government tries to do
and gain some kind of outer like veneer
of some kind of respectability as they
kind of you know sit in Parliament and
what this does is Ma's trying to call
them onto the Electoral Turf but as you
say it's a big big gamble we look at
polling just now some private polling
says they could gain as much as 243
seats they might well you know gain
hugely and become one of the largest
parties and bardella would likely be the
candidate for the matino um reserving
Marine Lupen for the potential
presidential elections in 2027 bardel
won't stand in the legislative elections
because he's got a job as me to ignore
in the meantime um but he would lead the
charge I think for sure and as you say
the hope is the understanding is that
macro might hope that they would be sort
of damaged by politics they would be
damaged show their incompetence we know
that bardel is better at Tik Tok than
policy but nonetheless this seems to be
a big big gamble they could you know in
power really just pave the way with a
couple of small giveaways to the to the
base you know something like the idea of
like the the idea stripping people the
nationality something like ideas of
national preference he could give
something there and limp along to 2027
it's not a long time for them to
disgrace themselves over a parliament
you know to really weaken them before
2027 I think that is a really really
risky scenario that isn't a gamble
that's Russian Roulette Andrew if it
wasn't for France looking a bit wi out
the European elections it would have
been much duller in a way wouldn't it
because actually the farri didn't make
those enormous gains that that are been
feared there are exceptions of course in
some countries where the far right did
do better but generally it was much more
of a calm result than was expected
absolutely um we used to say that the
European elections don't change anything
nationally well clearly they have in
France you know um but I think what you
see is really the the liberal Center has
held um in Brussels um the largest
parties uh remain drawn around the idea
of liberal democracy the far right
didn't proceed as it might have um of
course you've got the kind of the two
largest far-right parties still remain
pretty divided um in terms of the actual
overall kind of uh parliamentary
groupings you've got the European
conservatism and uh reformists that's
the ones that um Maloney sits in and
then the identity and democracy group
that's the ones that the r sit in or
don't as a reality happens um but you've
got this kind of division there in those
and but some of the national results of
course Germany didn't do too well ol
Schultz's uh party kind of fell back
socialists fell back um and we saw a
kind of strong result for afd um in
Italy Malone's um Malone's party kind of
it looks like it might have exceeded its
uh national election vote share um that
it got um just just recently which shows
a kind of a confidence certainly in a
prime minister uh kind of term you know
in a governorship but the big one really
will be in Hungary um where it looks
like um it looks like Victor orbon
really has a challenge on his hands it
looks like for the first time that fides
has a real challenge against it um under
pet magar formerly Insider turned
Outsider um challenging and really
gaining on that vote share so it looks
really like the danger from the far
right is not in Brussels not at the
European level within that European
Parliament but instead in the kind of
stronger member states especially
Germany and France and obviously already
Italy where those parties have surged in
response to this of course we know that
when he called his snap legislative
election was looking to strengthen the
hand in order to kind push forward
European reforms what mael might have
done is get the same result the
cohabitation but instead really weaken
that idea of France's commitment to
Europe by inviting in those that are
fundamentally opposed to it and instead
looking to take that kind of divisive
Russian line that we've seen the RN
cleave to so often so a big big change
uh in France but not the biggest of
changes in Brussels one change that you
briefly mentioned there of course is
Hungary I mean do you think Hungary
rather been for in the side hasn't it of
European politics for the last few years
a bit like the British were before
brexit of course I mean does this help
the European Parliament do you think
Advance a little bit because if they
haven't got Victor Orban being able to
breathe down their necks all the time it
may well strengthen at hand I mean it's
worth pointing out that you know orban's
party still did relatively well um it
didn't have perhaps the kind of you know
the thumping result it hoped for but it
still had a large percent of the vote
share um you know Orban still claims
that there were a couple of Elections
and he's won both of them um they were
the kind of the the large in this but
they don't necessarily have the same
sort of unanimity that they once had and
I think that sort of thing will be
useful in terms of projecting the idea
that there is kind of a democratic
challenge going on in Hungary as well
and that helped promote the message of
kind of European reformist European
Centrist um that we can see and the more
kind of democratic wing of that that
moves away from perhaps the more nakedly
kind of ethnic populist um basis that we
see this uh that we've seen kind of
pushed in Hungary as well so so yeah it
will be easier I think perhaps to kind
of to move some European Business
Without that threat coming from Hungary
but I think there will be a lot of
people looking over their necks in
France and in Germany at the kind of
scores that have been kind of returned
at the polling results that have been
returned last night um for their own
elections which are kind of forthcoming
very soon indeed so perhaps things go
more smoothly in Brussels but I think
those kind of storms in the member
states will continue to kind of
challenge some of the business that
needs to be done uh in in order to
contribute to the European Parliament
finally Andrew let's end by coming back
to France uh just a warning are we're
going to record this answer and play it
back to you in a couple of weeks time
okay because uh going to put you on the
spot what what's your prediction I know
it's very difficult at this stage for
what might happen over the next few
weeks here in
France I think a lot everything depends
on whether or not there can be a a a a
leftist uh leftist Unity um before
Friday um I don't think that's going to
come out already melon Shan's playing
the recer um I think what will happen is
that uh historians famously don't do
predictions so just stay with me on this
one um I think what will likely happen
is the Russ naal will massively increase
their number of seats I don't think they
will have a governing majority I think
politics will be even more fractious
that will instead build their position
for 2027 and I think this bet will
largely backfire on macron I think it
will put the far right on a stronger
position for the presidential election
to come in 27 I think it will make
governing in the National assembly more
difficult in the interim and I think
what we're likely to see is more
immobilism um around this as well more
blockages more difficulty in passing
bills and a lot more storms to come in
the National Assembly before a very
fractious election in 2027 which
remember Emanuel maon cannot stand in
and there is no clear candidate who will
replace him of course Edward phip people
like that maybe look like contenders but
there is no automatic candidate who will
replace macron for the majority it will
be an unknown territory in 2027 and one
in which I think the far right will have
gained quite a lot from from really this
terrible gamble that macaron has played
just now Andrew good to talk to you on
the program today sorry about throwing
that Googly to use a cricketing term uh
to you at the end there but good to get
your views Andrew Smith uh joining us
there from the University of London the
lecturer in Liberal Arts at Queen Murray
University thanks very much of course
浏览更多相关视频
'Many think it's too risky': Macron gambles on snap elections to halt far-right march • FRANCE 24
Why would Macron call snap elections after far-right's big win in EU vote? | DW News
Emmanuel Macron defends calling French snap elections | BBC News
Européennes : ce qu'il faut retenir du scrutin - ARTE
EU Elections Bring Right-Wing Surge and 'Political Earthquake' to France
Europe's center-right claims EU election victory even as far-right surges | DW News
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)