Analyst: Israel has the upper hand in its attacks in Lebanon, though Hezbollah yet to be defeated

Summary

Laura Blumenfeld, a Middle East analyst, provides an in-depth analysis of Israel's ongoing military operations in Lebanon and Gaza. She discusses Israel's strategy, including their military efforts to dismantle Iran's missile stockpiles and reestablish deterrence after the October 7th attacks. She touches on the challenges of fighting multiple fronts, Israel's relationship with Western allies, and the ongoing debate about the morality of Israel's actions. Blumenfeld also explores Israel's goals in forming alliances with moderate Arab states and the implications of this conflict for regional peace efforts.

Takeaways

• 😀 Israel is intensifying its military operations in Lebanon, targeting Iranian missile stockpiles aimed at Israel's population centers.
• 😀 The current conflict with Hezbollah has been part of a long-term Israeli strategy developed over 18 years since the last major confrontation in 2006.
• 😀 Israel's ground operations near the Lebanon-Israel border aim to be a limited and short engagement, similar to past successful operations, but losses are still being sustained.
• 😀 The challenge for Israel in this conflict is to 'quit while ahead,' as they aim to re-establish deterrence against Hezbollah and other regional threats.
• 😀 Israel has successfully demonstrated military power and has reasserted itself as a force to be reckoned with on the global stage after the October 7th attack by Hamas.
• 😀 Hezbollah remains a strong fighting force, despite losing significant numbers of its missile stockpiles and key leaders.
• 😀 The conflict is expected to continue for weeks, as Israel pushes to weaken Hezbollah, but the outcome remains uncertain.
• 😀 Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu criticized Western leaders like President Macron, condemning calls for an arms embargo against Israel.
• 😀 Netanyahu frames Israel's fight against terrorism as part of a larger global struggle, asking the West to stand firmly with Israel against forces led by Iran.
• 😀 Netanyahu hopes to emerge from the conflict by positioning Israel as a regional power, potentially forming stronger alliances with moderate Arab states like Saudi Arabia to counter Iran's influence.
• 😀 The U.S. is seen as essential in helping Israel reassert itself, with the goal of expanding the Abraham Accords and fostering regional economic prosperity.

Q & A

What is Israel's strategy in its current military operation in Lebanon?

Israel is focusing on eliminating Iran's missile stockpiles in Lebanon, which are aimed at Israeli population centers. The military operation is also aimed at shredding Iran's insurance policy on its nuclear program, which has been in the works for 18 years since the last confrontation with Hezbollah.

Why is Israel’s operation in Lebanon referred to as a 'limited incursion'?

Israel hopes that the operation will be short and decisive, modeled after the 'nasty, British, and short war' concept, rather than a prolonged engagement similar to the 1982 war or the 2006 conflict with Hezbollah.

What challenges does Israel face in its military operation in Lebanon compared to Gaza?

The challenge for Israel in Lebanon is how to exit the conflict on a positive note, while still establishing deterrence. Unlike Gaza, where the focus was on withdrawing while 'behind,' the challenge here is to exit while ahead after achieving military success.

What was the significance of Netanyahu's statement about Israel's fight being the West's fight?

Netanyahu framed Israel's conflict as part of a broader fight against terrorism that involves the West, emphasizing that Israel is on the front lines protecting not just itself but also the values of Western civilization.

How does Israel's reliance on U.S. weapons affect its diplomatic relations?

Israel's dependence on U.S. weapons complicates its diplomatic position, as threats to withhold military aid, like those made in the past, create significant concern in Israel. This reliance is tied to Israel’s sense of security, and Netanyahu has often used emotional appeals, including invoking Holocaust imagery, to underscore the urgency of maintaining these supplies.

What impact has Hezbollah’s actions, like firing projectiles from Lebanon, had on the conflict?

Hezbollah's actions, such as firing rockets into Syria, demonstrate that while Israel has made significant strides in degrading Hezbollah’s stockpiles, the group remains resilient. They are a formidable military force, and the fight against them is expected to continue for weeks, if not months.

What does Netanyahu's response to the arms embargo proposal from some Western countries reflect?

Netanyahu's angry statement in response to the arms embargo proposal reflects his frustration with the lack of unanimous support from Western nations. He believes that Israel will prevail regardless of external support, but he condemns the actions of those calling for an arms embargo as morally indefensible.

What is the broader geopolitical context surrounding Israel's military actions?

Israel's actions are part of a larger regional struggle against Iran’s influence, with the country aiming to reestablish deterrence and strengthen its position not only against its enemies but also in diplomatic relations with moderate Arab states like Saudi Arabia. This geopolitical maneuvering also ties into broader goals of regional integration and economic prosperity.

How does the anniversary of October 7th factor into Israel’s strategy?

The anniversary of the October 7th Hamas assault is pivotal for Israel. It marks a traumatic event that Israel aims to overcome by emerging stronger, demonstrating to both enemies and allies that Israel has regained its military and strategic advantage.

What is Netanyahu's view on the role of the United States in the Middle East conflict?

Netanyahu sees the United States as a crucial ally in advancing Israel's interests in the Middle East. He believes that Israel’s strategic position can be strengthened through partnerships with moderate Arab states and through regional integration efforts, such as expanding the Abraham Accords, which could lead to greater economic cooperation and stability in the region.