Beyond The Box Episode 6: 'Tis the Season for Planning
Summary
TLDR在这一集的《Beyond the Box》节目中,主持人Elen Hoffman和Christopher Minard探讨了供应链和旺季问题,包括黑色星期五、感恩节和圣诞节的趋势、挑战和惊喜。Kmart的国际供应链负责人Dpeg Manon详细讲述了他们如何通过数字工具优化库存规划和流动,以应对旺季的需求。此外,还探讨了供应链合作伙伴关系的重要性以及现代数字工具在提升预测和规划方面的作用。最后,节目总结了在当前复杂的供应链环境中,灵活性和良好伙伴关系的重要性。
Takeaways
- 🎄 许多与圣诞树相关的产品对于销售额至关重要,如果没有圣诞树,这些产品的销售也会受损。
- 📦 高峰季节对于供应链来说是一个巨大的挑战,涉及黑色星期五、排灯节、感恩节和圣诞节等。
- 🏬 Kmart 的国际供应链负责人 Dpeg Manon 提到,不仅圣诞树本身重要,消费者还会购买其他相关商品。
- 🗓️ 供应链计划已经从八月到十一月的关键月份,变得更加复杂,尤其是近年来。
- 🛠️ Kmart 通过数字工具提高了库存规划和流量优化的精度,达到了 95% 的准确率。
- 🌐 高峰季节的购物习惯也在变化,80% 的消费者会在线购物,25% 的消费者全部在线购物。
- 💡 高峰季节的成功需要良好的供应链伙伴关系和数字化工具,以确保供应链的可见性和可预测性。
- 🚢 供应链管理不仅涉及到公司的竞争,而是供应链之间的竞争,良好的合作关系至关重要。
- 🌍 全球化和现代供应链能力使得应对季节性需求变得更容易,例如蓝莓一年四季都能供应。
- 🎁 高峰季节不再像过去那样集中时间段,灵活和稳健的供应链在任何季节都能为企业提供优势。
Q & A
什么是这期节目主要讨论的话题?
-这期节目主要讨论供应链和旺季,包括黑色星期五、排灯节、感恩节、圣诞节等节日的供应链趋势、挑战和意外情况。
为什么圣诞树对零售商来说如此重要?
-圣诞树不仅是一个单一产品,它还带动了相关产品的销售。如果顾客不购买圣诞树,零售商就会失去整个节日产品包的销售。
谁是dpeg Manon,他在节目中谈了什么?
-dpeg Manon是澳大利亚Kmart的国际供应链负责人,他谈到了为旺季做准备的挑战,包括产品流量的高峰和低谷、仓库和运输空间的管理等。
为什么旺季对像Kmart这样的企业非常重要?
-旺季是企业年度利润的关键时期,有些企业在这个时期可以获得高达70%的年度利润。
近年来供应链和旺季发生了哪些变化?
-近年来,供应链变得更加复杂且不可预测。新冠疫情和通货膨胀等因素导致供应链中断,消费者行为和需求模式也发生了变化。
Martin Christopher的供应链管理理念是什么?
-Martin Christopher认为,不是公司之间在竞争,而是供应链之间在竞争。成功的关键在于与供应链伙伴建立良好的关系和合作。
Joanna Hines提到的现代数字工具对供应链有什么作用?
-Joanna Hines提到,现代数字工具和数据分析帮助企业更好地预测和管理库存需求,增强供应链的可见性和可预测性,从而应对不断变化的市场环境。
旺季供应链规划的两个关键步骤是什么?
-第一,确保与良好的供应链伙伴合作;第二,利用现代数字工具进行数据分析和预测。
疫情对供应链规划产生了哪些具体影响?
-疫情导致生产和需求模式的突变,零售商无法像过去那样进行国际规划,必须适应更短的预测周期和快速变化的市场需求。
为什么供应链的灵活性和合作关系比以往任何时候都更重要?
-由于供应链环境的复杂性和不确定性增加,灵活性和良好的合作关系有助于企业快速应对各种突发情况,确保供应链的连续性和稳定性。
Outlines
🎄 圣诞树与节日供应链的复杂性
在这一段中,主持人Elen Hoffman和Christopher Minard讨论了节日季节(如黑色星期五、感恩节和圣诞节)对供应链的重要性。澳大利亚Kmart国际供应链负责人Dpack Manon分享了关于节日期间商品流动和库存管理的挑战及其解决方案,包括数字工具的使用来优化库存和空间规划。
🍋 高峰季节与供应链挑战
这一段介绍了高峰季节中水果和蔬菜供应链的独特挑战。Citron X首席运营官Mark Schulz解释了冬季香蕉需求旺盛的原因,并讨论了供应和需求如何在不同季节影响产品的可用性。此外,还提到了消费者在高峰季节在线购物的比例显著增加,以及如何应对不可预测的需求波动。
🔗 供应链伙伴关系与管理
Martin Christopher教授强调了供应链管理中建立良好伙伴关系的重要性,指出公司间的竞争实际上是供应链之间的竞争。通过合作和信息共享,企业能够更好地应对高峰季节和各种中断。此外,Mark Schulz还讨论了如何与生产商和物流供应商建立互惠互利的关系,以确保在需求高峰期获得稳定的供应。
🔍 数字化工具与供应链未来
Joanna Hines探讨了数字化工具在现代供应链中的重要性,强调了数据分析和预测工具在应对不确定性方面的作用。通过使用先进的数字工具,企业能够提高库存预测的准确性,并更好地管理供应链的复杂性。总结了现代供应链需要灵活和强大的数字化支持,以应对不断变化的消费者需求和市场条件。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡供应链
💡旺季
💡库存管理
💡数字化工具
💡需求变化
💡合作伙伴关系
💡高峰规划
💡全球化
💡消费行为
💡可见性
Highlights
销售整个包裹相关的产品如果没有销售圣诞树,我们会失去整个包裹的销售。
圣诞节期间,Kmart销售额可能占年度利润的70%。
Kmart采用了数字工具进行库存和流量优化规划,准确率达到95%。
现代数字工具在高峰季节的规划和管理中至关重要。
互联网对高峰季节购物行为的影响显著,80%的消费者在线购物。
疫情期间,供应链和需求模式的变化导致零售商需重新规划高峰季节。
供应链的成功关键在于与供应商建立强有力的合作伙伴关系。
供应链合作伙伴关系的质量决定了企业的竞争优势。
利用数字工具和数据分析来改进库存和需求预测。
全球化和全年供应能力减弱了季节性差异。
灵活的供应链有助于应对季节性波动和市场需求变化。
供应链管理需要前瞻性领导力和信息共享。
企业需要为高峰季节做好准备,包括在资源、仓储和运输方面的规划。
与物流服务提供商建立良好合作关系有助于应对高峰季节的挑战。
数字化工具和现代技术在提升供应链效率和应对不确定性方面发挥重要作用。
Transcripts
[Music]
there are so many Associated product
that goes into the Christmas tree so if
they don't get that Christmas tree we
lose the sales of the entire
package this is beyond the Box
integrated Logistics From the Inside
[Music]
Out hello and welcome to beyond the box
I'm elen Hoffman and I'm Christopher
Minard so in this episode we're talking
about Supply chains and peak season the
Glorious time of year that includes
Black Friday devali Thanksgiving
Christmas and so on we're going to
unpack Trends challenges surprises yes
and at the start of this episode you
heard the voice of dpeg Manon he's the
head of international supply chain at
Kmart a retailer in Australia which I
must admit I have never set foot in but
you have right I sure have Australia is
my adopted Homeland and Kmart is huge
there you can think about it as a a
massive discount department store or 320
plus massive discount department stores
I think it's fair to say that most
Aussies will pop into Kmart at least
once during the festive season and if
you were in Australia you probably would
too I mean what are shopping habits like
at this time of year well I I have to
admit I tend to forget about gifts until
the 23rd of December and that's when I
decide that everyone in my family would
benefit from a new set of windshield
wiper blades very practical not so easy
to Reg well I'm almost sure you could
find your wiper blades and Kmart for
cheap as well as a pumpkin costume for
your dog the indispensable gold look
platter for your sweet treats the end of
your gift for your kids teachers all the
quote unquote Essentials that does sound
essential no surprise then that peak
season is super important for Kmart and
as dpack Manon said it's not only the
Christmas tree but it's all the other
stuff that we as consumers also put into
the basket yeah and it's not just kmar
some businesses make up to 70% of their
annual profits at this time and it used
to be that August to November were the
key months for supply chain planning
that was when businesses got their
shelves stocked for the holiday season
but as with everything to do with
Logistics and supply chains these days
it's uh complicated and this year and
the last few years have not looked like
the others right and decman and he can
set the scene for us in terms of the
challenges around preparing for peak
season challenge is always to manage the
Peaks and valleys in the product food so
we must produce more upfront in most of
the cases and buffer it at the different
nodes of the supply chain and then
trickle it slowly towards the
destination to avoid any congestions at
the destination so that means a
challenge basically comes down to space
for buffering at the warehouse or
getting the space in the ships uh or
resources at the origin to process these
volume to manufacture these products at
the manufacturing lengths so it's it's
about uh shortterm and longterm planning
of both inventory and the flow of uh
products throughout the supply chain so
what we have made significant process
within Kmart uh is to bring up digital
tools that will help us in this
inventory planning and flow optimization
so in the last 14 uh months we have made
significant progress uh in these tools
so we are trying to come up with the
tools that can spit out plans with up to
about 95% accuracy now that definitely
improves our space planning with the
within the warehouse and also uh we have
a tool that looks into the Container
forecasting which tells us precisely two
months out how much of space that we
need exactly in each ship now all this
helps us to pack and utilize our
warehouse accurately resource planning
in the warehouse resource planning and
space planning within the ships so that
we can stack the ship flow the products
and then at the end it all leads into
high availability at the
[Music]
store so preparing for peak season is
really a balancing act that takes a lot
of careful planning and modern digital
tools I can imagine that's important as
ever because as I mentioned Supply
chains these days are super complex and
there are a bunch of moving parts to
factor in plus as consumers our buying
behaviors and expectations have changed
a lot yeah these days anyone that has
the means expects to be able to get what
they want pretty much as soon as they
want it and that can be the latest
sneakers Smartwatch but at this time of
year food is also really important you
can't have Christmas in Australia
without lemons for the seafood in the
United States they need those peans for
Thanksgiving Mar Schulz he can tell us
more about that he is the Chief
Operating Officer for Citron X which is
a fruit and vegetable grower and
importer based in Poland I spoke to Mark
Schulz at the fruit attraction fair in
Madrid recently big season is always at
the time when there is not someone other
fruits available so why the bananas are
so good product in the winter time
because we have so much other choices so
when the people go to the supermarket
they go for a shopping of course they
will find some Mandarin some oranges but
apart of this there is not so much other
products that they can choose and then
if the same customer is going to the
same Supermarket but in June July or
August there is a full range of the
other products they can choose and then
they have to see that and then they will
notice that the bananas are are not
number one
anymore wow that's a real 10,000 spoons
when all you need is a knife situation
or 10,000 bananas when all you need is a
mango absolutely and nice one with the
alen Moret reference but I think that
this is a really interesting point how
peak season in some cases isn't created
by a demand but by Supply or lack of
Supply right and the internet adds a
whole other dimension to that do you
want to have a guess as to what
percentage of consumers do their peak
season shopping online H I think that's
that's hard because for something like
Black Friday I imagine it's it's very
high whereas for Christmas somewhat
lower so I would say around 65% yeah
it's it's a pretty good guess but 80% of
consumers do some of their peak season
shopping online and then 25% so one in
four people they do all their shopping
online so that's one curveball right
because you could be buying anything at
any time it's not just what you see on
shelves once the decorations are up and
there are a bunch of other factors
making peak season and the the supply
chains powering peak season look really
different now more than ever businesses
need to be ready for anything and when
you dive through different forecasts
about peak season the conclusion is
essentially it's very volatile and we
don't know what is going to happen if
you'll allow me another musical
reference one that you might find a
little bit cliche but the times they are
are changing n Pop Dylan nice one thanks
and for more on how they are changing
here's Joanna Hines who is the head of
retail at MK if we look back at the
covid side and on the supply side right
planning went out of the window because
suddenly we couldn't um really get the
goods anymore because nobody was allowed
to produce on the demand side same thing
suddenly nobody could go into a shop
anymore but now more recently we've seen
all these disruptions as well as um the
inflation and the price increases which
has kind of kept people away from stores
so the consumers are not following the
patterns we're usually used to so if I
look at the most recent Peak from an
international standpoint where we are it
has been a lot smaller and it has been a
lot earlier than what we would usually
see because people had either a lot of
inventory still in their warehouses
which they needed to sell off especially
in Commodities like durable goods um
Furniture Home Improvement this type of
stuff and or they were ordering very
cautiously but a little bit earlier to
just not be caught in the middle of not
having anything on the shelves but not
having too much on the shelves because
planning is based on your experiences of
the past right very few retailers are
able to do their International planning
on the immediate demand impulses from a
shop that has all gone out of the window
so now we're every everybody's figuring
out how to do
this so Jo Hines is actually touching on
a lot of themes we covered in episode
one of the podcast there have been
massive changes in Supply chains these
past few years and a lot more
uncertainty which of course you can
offset to an extent to bring it back to
Peak Seasons I think this is summed up
really nicely by that Logistics
management survey you finded yeah of the
supply chain stakeholders surveyed 35%
said peak seasons are now more active
35% said less active and 30% said things
will stay the same oneir oneir one
I think that's the definition of Anway B
and I think this is a really good time
to hear from Martin Christopher he's
Emeritus professor of marketing and
Logistics at Cranfield School of
Management in the UK and no one knows
Supply chains like Martin Christopher he
has an impressive 40 years experience up
his sleeve I have heard him referred to
as the Godfather of logistics I love
that yeah and he's famous for pioneering
this idea that it's not companies that
compete it's Supply chains so if we take
you know Ford and General Motors um
they'll often have um the same suppliers
supplying both of them for many of their
products so it's not as if the supply
chain is unique but what is unique is
the quality of the relationships that
Ford have with their suppliers and that
General Motors have with their suppliers
and it's how we manage those
relationships that gives us that edge so
this I think is is what it's really
about it's about how we build
Partnerships and how we ensure that
we've actually got mut beneficial
Arrangements um and it doesn't happen by
itself it requires you know really
proactive leadership a whole change of
mindsets you don't want to keep your
partners at arms length anymore we're
going to bring them in basically and it
also means the willingness to share
information we're all singing to the
same song sheet and this I think is what
really makes it possible to cope with B
it seasonality be it disruptions or
whatever because we're much more closely
connected uh and better able to work
across those boundaries so I think
that's basically the the the fundamental
thing it's about how we manage those
relationships Partnerships matter so the
big question for businesses is how
exactly do you build a great partnership
because they do need to be great and
this is something I also spoke to mark
schul from Citron about that is very
interesting question because when you
talk to the producers they are in
trouble every summer time but then if
you help them and if you don't uh stop
loading or you just decrease as less as
possible they will really appreciate and
they will give you the bananas at the
time when you really want them so for
example we are treating The Producers uh
very very well also in the summer time
because we have plenty of customers that
we can do some promos Etc then they they
really appreciate that and they give me
back that volume for example they give
me the hand in the winter time when I
really need to have it yeah so normally
they they they have so many customers
happy to buy their bananas in the winter
so they should they can say sorry but we
don't have anything available but then I
said guys but we are in the good time
and in the bad time I help you in the
summer so help in the winter so that's
more or less kind of partnership that we
have also with the producers same like
we have with the logistic providers so a
business with a good partner can get
warehousing space when they need it
quickly they can find an alternative
route in the event of A disruption and
so on and so forth so step one for a
smooth Peak planning season ensure
you're working with good supply chain
partners and step two potentially not a
surprise to anyone who has listened to
previous episodes is related to
digitalization those modern digital
tools that you mentioned earlier on
Joanna Hines from Merk also had some
insights on this let's hear what she had
to say what we have available now in
terms of digital tools and the data we
are collecting is a lot more than we had
still a few years ago so I think anybody
who has invested heavily in analytics
and maybe also even in generative eii
and projections make use of it right
because the more unpredictable currently
some of the environment elements are the
shorter the Cycles we need to use to
actually do the forecasting and I know
from many retailers that they're
investing in those type of digital tools
to make sure they have more data
elements available which are also at
shorter Cycles to actually determine how
much stock they should be ordering for
what type of items from where so that
they can actually better predict what is
needed and in what place back to the
digital tools like dpack Minon from
Kmart mentioned in the beginning exactly
the key to visibility predictability all
the good stuff especially in this day
and age where Peak seasons are all over
the place in other words when we talk
about supply chain planning we need a
bit of a reframe as Martin Christopher
summarizes the seasonal differences they
are evening out we we create havoc in in
Supply chains through through promotions
and things like that but they're
self-inflicted whereas other well I
suppose you could say Christmas is
self-inflicted but but it's predictable
we we we know it's coming and like BR
Friday we know it's it's coming it it
may well disrupts our um Supply chains
to an extent that the spikes create
significant pressures on capacity of
course they do um but in other sectors
too I mean as as you know we're just
talking about fruit and vegetable where
clearly again there there are seasons
there are growing Seasons but there are
also seasons in terms of customer demand
although what we're tending to see there
again I think is partly through
globalization is um things have become a
bit less seasonal in in a sense that
there is a year round Supply
capability a great example would be uh
blueberries which um until about 15
years ago I don't think anybody in
Britain had eaten a blueberry I may be
wrong but and now everybody eats them
every day all year round and you look on
the pack where have they come from well
they've come from everywhere so I think
what we're really saying here is that
one of the things that's enabled us to
cope with seasonality is actually having
um a much more well again it's the the
word is hou um supply chain capability
we we can do things now which we weren't
able to do
before
[Music]
so every day is Christmas that's what
I'm hearing right in that case my
friends and family they can look forward
to new wiper blades every day that is
too sad a note to leave on in instead
could you summarize what we've learned
today well first and foremost that Peak
Seasons look a bit different these days
it is in part a time where we as
consumers create a big demand for lemons
decorations wiper blades sure but it's
not time box like it used to be so a
robust and flexible supply chain matters
more than ever right and good
Partnerships and Agility can give a
business The Edge as the Godfather of
logistics Martin Christopher said it's
not companies that compete it's Supply
chains and finally don't underestimate
the power of digital tools and in short
get your supply chain ready for anything
and that will serve a business for any
season thanks for listening to this
episode of Beyond The Box a special
thanks to the team behind the scenes
including this episode's producer gur
Cecilia Ross we'll be back with a new
episode very soon in the meantime please
rate subscribe and share the podcast
wherever you listen until next
[Music]
time
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