Bandar JP Morgan Downgrade BBRI Investor Lokal BORONG BBRI 4.4 Triliun dalam 2 Hari, ikutan Borong ?

Summary

The speaker discusses the recent performance of the BBRI stock, which has dropped by 9% in two days due to foreign selling and a downgrade by JP Morgan from 'overweight' to 'neutral'. They analyze the bank's financial reports, highlighting a steady increase in equity and profits despite rising credit costs. The speaker also shares their own stock trading experiences, advising viewers to wait for a price rise above 5.200 or a breakout at 5.325 before considering buying BBRI shares, emphasizing the importance of discipline in cutting losses and buying back.

Takeaways

• 📉 The stock price of BBRI has dropped approximately 9% in the last two days.
• 🌐 Foreign investors have sold shares amounting to 1.6 trillion, indicating a lack of confidence in the stock.
• 📰 A news report influenced the stock's downgrade from 'overweight' to 'neutral' by JP Morgan due to a lack of positive sentiment.
• 🏦 The speaker compares BBRI with other banks like BCA, noting that BBRI has a significant amount of microcredit which poses a higher risk compared to BCA.
• 📈 Despite the downgrade, BBRI's equity and net profit are still growing, showing some resilience in its financials.
• 📊 The speaker anticipates the third-quarter financial report to see if BBRI can manage the increasing credit costs due to microcredit defaults.
• 📉 The speaker shares a personal buyback at a price of 5225 and mentions a potential buy area around 5100-5300.
• 🚫 The importance of not panicking and selling when the stock price drops suddenly is emphasized, suggesting a wait-and-see approach.
• 📈 The speaker is optimistic about BBRI's future, comparing it to a plant that has been nurtured and is now facing a temporary storm.
• ⏳ The speaker advises waiting for the stock price to rise above 5200 or for a breakout above 5325 before considering buying more shares.

Q & A

What is the main topic discussed in the script?

The main topic discussed in the script is the stock performance of BBRI, an Indonesian bank stock, and the reasons behind its recent decline in value.

What is the significance of the 9% drop in BBRI's stock price mentioned in the script?

The 9% drop in BBRI's stock price within two days is significant as it indicates a substantial decrease in market value, which is attributed to foreign selling and a downgrade by JP Morgan.

What was the downgrade given by JP Morgan to BBRI?

JP Morgan downgraded BBRI from 'overweight' to 'neutral' due to a lack of incremental positive sentiment.

What is the role of 'incremental positive sentiment' in stock ratings according to the script?

According to the script, 'incremental positive sentiment' is crucial for maintaining a stock's rating. A lack of it can lead to a downgrade, as it suggests no further positive developments are expected.

What is the potential impact of increased credit costs on BBRI's financial reports as mentioned in the script?

The script suggests that if BBRI's financial reports show an increase in credit costs, especially due to non-performing micro-credits, it could negatively impact the bank's profitability.

How does the script compare BBRI to other banks like BCA and Bank Mandiri?

The script compares BBRI to BCA and Bank Mandiri by discussing their credit portfolios, particularly noting that BBRI has a much larger micro-credit segment, which carries higher risks compared to BCA.

What was Sunarso's stance on BRI's credit quality improvement mentioned in the script?

Sunarso, who was interviewed, mentioned that for the year 2024, BRI is inclined to improve its credit quality and is not too aggressive but aims to continue growing.

What financial indicators does the script suggest to monitor for BBRI's performance?

The script suggests monitoring equity growth, revenue, and net profit as key financial indicators for BBRI's performance.

What is the significance of the 'glass half full or half empty' analogy used in the script regarding BBRI's stock?

The analogy is used to illustrate different perspectives on BBRI's stock situation. Seeing the glass as 'half full' implies optimism about the stock's value, while 'half empty' indicates a pessimistic view.

What is the recommendation for investors who are confused about BBRI's stock movement as per the script?

The script advises confused investors to sell half of their position to reduce risk, as it's better to secure some profit rather than being entirely uncertain about future movements.

What historical incident is mentioned in the script regarding JP Morgan's reputation?

The script refers to an incident in 2016 where JP Morgan suddenly downgraded Indonesia's rating, which was later corrected, and they were temporarily removed from being a primary dealer of government bonds.