Dr. Jay Bhattacharya on COVID, Myocarditis, and Vaccines
Summary
TLDRThe transcript discusses the complex issue of vaccine efficacy and safety, particularly focusing on COVID-19 vaccines. It emphasizes the importance of evaluating risks and benefits based on age groups, noting minimal benefits for children due to low COVID-19 mortality rates. The discussion also addresses concerns about vaccine side effects, such as myocarditis in young men, and the ethical challenges of conducting randomized vaccine trials. Furthermore, it touches on the broader topic of childhood vaccination schedules, the debunked autism-vaccine link, and the benefits of live attenuated vaccines beyond their intended targets.
Takeaways
- π€ The speaker discusses the complexity of assessing COVID-19 vaccines, particularly for younger individuals, due to the low mortality risk and potential side effects like myocarditis.
- π The speaker and Martin Korf co-wrote an op-ed recommending against COVID-19 vaccination for younger people based on the small benefit-to-risk ratio.
- 𧬠There is evidence suggesting a higher risk of myocarditis in young men post-vaccination, which is a significant concern in the vaccine decision-making process.
- πΆ For older populations, the risk-benefit analysis leans more towards vaccination due to higher mortality risks associated with COVID-19.
- π The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in preventing symptomatic infection declines sharply after two to three months, indicating limited long-term protection.
- π€ COVID-19 itself can cause myocarditis, but the speaker suggests that the risk from the vaccine may be higher for young men than the risk from the virus.
- 𧬠The discussion moves to childhood vaccines and the speaker's personal journey of understanding vaccine skepticism, including the debunked claim that vaccines cause autism.
- π₯ Large-scale epidemiological studies have found no correlation between the MMR vaccine and autism, contradicting earlier, smaller studies with flawed methodologies.
- π‘ The speaker emphasizes the importance of vaccines in preventing serious diseases like measles, mumps, and rubella, and the ethical challenges of conducting randomized control trials for vaccines.
- π The concept of herd immunity is highlighted, where individual choices not to vaccinate can rely on the protection provided by the majority who do vaccinate.
- π‘ Live attenuated vaccines, unlike non-live vaccines, have been shown to reduce overall child mortality from a variety of diseases, not just the targeted ones.
Q & A
What is the main concern raised about the COVID-19 vaccines for young people, especially children?
-The main concern is that the benefit of the COVID-19 vaccine for young people, especially children, is very small due to their already low mortality risk from COVID-19. This makes the potential side effects of the vaccine a significant consideration, possibly outweighing the benefits.
What was the reasoning behind recommending against younger people taking the COVID-19 vaccine in an op-ed in The Hill?
-The reasoning was based on the low mortality risk of COVID-19 in young people and the evidence of high rates of myocarditis, a heart inflammation, in young men who received the vaccine.
How does the risk of myocarditis from the COVID-19 vaccine compare to the risk from the actual virus for young men?
-For young men, the risk of myocarditis from the COVID-19 vaccine is considered higher than the risk of myocarditis from the virus itself, especially since the benefit of vaccination for this group is minimal.
What is the general recommendation for older people regarding the COVID-19 vaccine?
-The general recommendation for older people is to take the COVID-19 vaccine due to their higher risk of severe illness or death from the virus, which can be significantly reduced by vaccination, outweighing the potential risks.
What should one consider when evaluating the risk and benefits of a vaccine?
-One should consider the individual's age, health status, the disease's mortality risk, the vaccine's efficacy in preventing the disease, and the potential side effects or risks associated with the vaccine.
What is the controversy surrounding the MMR vaccine and autism?
-The controversy started with a small study published in The Lancet that suggested a correlation between the MMR vaccine and autism. However, subsequent large-scale epidemiological studies have found no such correlation.
Why is it considered unethical to conduct a randomized control trial for the MMR vaccine by intentionally not vaccinating some children?
-It is considered unethical because it would expose children to the risk of measles, mumps, and rubella, diseases that can cause serious harm or death, especially when there is a widely accepted belief among medical professionals that the vaccine is effective and beneficial.
What is the concept of 'herd immunity' in the context of vaccination?
-Herd immunity is the indirect protection from infectious diseases that occurs when a large percentage of a population has become immune to the disease, either through vaccination or previous infections, thereby reducing the likelihood of the disease spreading.
What is the difference between live attenuated vaccines and non-live vaccines?
-Live attenuated vaccines contain a weakened form of the live virus that can still replicate inside the body, providing a mild form of the disease and immunity. Non-live vaccines, on the other hand, are made from inactivated or subunit parts of the pathogen that cannot replicate, stimulating the immune system to recognize the pathogen without causing the disease.
What additional benefits have been observed with live attenuated vaccines beyond the diseases they are intended to prevent?
-Some studies have shown that live attenuated vaccines, such as the oral polio vaccine, can reduce the risk of mortality from other diseases not targeted by the vaccine, a phenomenon not observed with non-live vaccines.
What is the importance of considering the marginal benefit of vaccination in a largely vaccinated population?
-The importance lies in understanding that the individual benefit of vaccination in a population with high vaccination rates may be small due to herd immunity, but the collective benefit in preventing outbreaks and protecting vulnerable individuals is significant.
Outlines
π€ Vaccine Hesitancy and Risk Assessment
The speaker begins by addressing the complexity of the vaccine debate, particularly focusing on the COVID-19 vaccine. They emphasize the importance of evaluating the benefits and risks of vaccination, especially for different age groups. For young people and children, the mortality risk from COVID-19 is low, making the benefits of vaccination minimal and potentially outweighed by side effects like myocarditis. The speaker and Martin Korf had previously advised against vaccinating younger individuals based on this rationale. The discussion also touches on the importance of a balanced view, cautioning against alarmist or biased perspectives on vaccine risks.
𧬠Vaccines and Myocarditis Risks
This paragraph delves deeper into the myocarditis risk associated with COVID-19 vaccines, especially for young men. The speaker acknowledges that while COVID-19 can cause myocarditis, the risk from the vaccine may be higher for this demographic. They discuss the marginal impact of vaccination on the likelihood of contracting COVID-19 and developing myocarditis, noting that the vaccine's protection is temporary and may not significantly reduce the overall risk. The speaker also addresses broader concerns about vaccination, including the debunked claim that vaccines cause autism, and emphasizes the importance of large-scale epidemiological studies in understanding vaccine safety.
π‘ The Ethics of Vaccination and Herd Immunity
The final paragraph discusses the ethical considerations of conducting control trials for vaccines, highlighting the unwillingness of researchers to expose children to potential harm by not vaccinating them. The speaker explains the concept of herd immunity and the individual's decision not to vaccinate, which relies on the majority being vaccinated to reduce overall risk. They also mention the work of epidemiologist Christine Stabell Benn, who found that live attenuated vaccines may have broader health benefits beyond their intended targets, such as reducing mortality from other diseases. The speaker concludes by encouraging viewers to engage with the content and subscribe for more information.
Mindmap
Keywords
π‘Vaccines
π‘Myocarditis
π‘COVID-19
π‘Mortality Risk
π‘MMR Vaccine
π‘Autism
π‘Epidemiological Studies
π‘Herd Immunity
π‘Live Attenuated Vaccines
π‘Spike Protein
π‘Risk-Benefit Analysis
Highlights
The discussion emphasizes the importance of evaluating vaccine benefits and risks on a case-by-case basis, particularly for COVID-19 vaccines in different age groups.
It is suggested that the COVID-19 vaccine's benefit for young people, especially children, is minimal due to their already low mortality risk from the virus.
The op-ed in The Hill co-authored by the speaker recommended against younger people taking the vaccine due to the minimal benefit and potential side effects.
Evidence of myocarditis, a heart inflammation, was noted as a concerning side effect, especially among young men who received the COVID-19 vaccine.
The speaker discusses the balance between vaccine benefits and risks, advocating for a nuanced approach based on individual health profiles.
For older populations, the vaccine's benefits in reducing severe illness and death from COVID-19 are considered more significant, justifying its use despite potential risks.
The speaker highlights the importance of critically evaluating the nature of risks presented by sources, especially when there is disagreement among experts.
The debate over vaccine-induced myocarditis versus COVID-19-induced myocarditis is explored, with the suggestion that the vaccine may pose a higher risk for young men.
The speaker shares personal experience of contracting COVID-19 despite being vaccinated, illustrating the vaccine's limited duration of protection.
The discussion moves to childhood vaccines, questioning the validity of claims that vaccines cause autism and the importance of distinguishing between different vaccines.
The MMR vaccine and its alleged link to autism are scrutinized, with large-scale epidemiological studies suggesting no correlation.
The ethical challenges of conducting randomized control trials for vaccines are discussed, highlighting the reluctance to withhold potentially beneficial interventions.
The concept of herd immunity is introduced, explaining its role in reducing the risk of disease spread and the implications for individual vaccine decisions.
The benefits of live attenuated vaccines, such as reduced mortality from non-target diseases, are presented as an additional advantage over non-live vaccines.
The speaker emphasizes the importance of considering the broader impact of vaccination decisions on public health and the potential for disease resurgence.
The transcript concludes with a call to action for viewers to engage with the content, subscribe to the channel, and stay informed on vaccination topics.
Transcripts
how should I think as an American about
vaccines and whether they are good or
not because there's crack pocks and
cranks everywhere including at the
heights of the medical establishment it
appears that's a tough question right so
just let's just stick for right now with
the covid
vaccines right so that uh that if there
had been an open discussion allowed
around it uh that it would have been
very clear I think to most doctors and
most parents that the benefit of the
vaccine for the covid vaccine for young
people especially especially children uh
was very very small why because the
mortality risk of dying from covid for
children was very very small so it's the
the the you reduce a small mortality
risk to an even smaller mortality risk
you're not getting very much benefit
that is enough to say that any
possibility of side effects in that
group would lead you to say don't use
that product in that group in fact
Martin korf and I wrote an oped in the
hill I think in April 2021 recommending
against younger people taking the
vaccine for that with exactly that
reasoning uh there were evidence coming
out already around then that young men
especially got high rates of myocarditis
in heart inflammation when they took the
vaccine with the covid vaccine and so
the question then is what what benefit
is there to the to to to my child from
taking it
uh that's the first question like if
it's if it's potentially large then you
want to consider it if it's not
potentially large uh then you want you
want to be more careful about it uh the
flip side of the old for the older
population there's a much higher risk of
dying and you're reducing the risk of D
of of getting sick with the the disease
you're probably going to you have a much
wider range of like how much benefit
that could be and you're going to be
willing to allow there to be I I should
speak for myself personally if I'm going
to G gain a lot of benefit and
expectation and I'm going to be willing
to take some risk I'm going to allow
there to be some har potential harms if
they're especially if they're low risk
um low
probability and I'll still take the
thing because I expect to have more
benefit than harm right so that's the
that's the base of the recommendation
for older people to take the vaccine uh
if somebody tells you that there's a
uniform risk and you know there's not a
uniform risk if somebody exaggerates to
you the nature of the risk on either
side you know the taking the vaccine or
not taking the vaccine and you can you
can get a sense of like are they
alarmist are they are they are they are
they reasonable are they balanced are
they are they accounting for uh other
people disagreeing with them what do
they have to say about the people that
disagree with
them then you should be very careful
about believing them about that the
nature of the risk that they're trying
to evaluate For
You Second I don't think that you as as
a parent
um I mean I do think that there's some
some there's it's very difficult right
so uh like the the let's just now let's
leave covid vaccines aside let's move to
the childhood vaccine schedule I do want
to I do want to ask one follow-up
question before we expand on the other
you know mmrs and all the rest so
there's
death but then there's other stuff right
that's not death but um is in the middle
so taking the vaccine appears to have
increased myoy iio carditis risk with
young men like my son was of age of that
age in that Target at the time when the
co magines were really getting
pushed but what did we know about what
if you got covid like so if my son got
covid survived just fine did did that
also Elevate myocarditis did it elevate
myocarditis risks higher than if he had
taken the vacine so the myocarditis is
is the the calculus around myocarditis
is really interesting uh so yes covid
can cause Mar carditis it had did cause
Mar carditis in in in in people
absolutely it did um the the uh the
question though isn't the relative risk
of Martis for covid versus the vaccine
the question is if I take the vaccine
what's the marginal impact on my
likelihood of getting covid and what's
the marginal impact of on the likelihood
of getting marz if I get
covid right so marginal meaning if I
take it versus if I don't what's the
change in the life likelihood of getting
covid it turns out that it prevents you
from getting infected symptomatic
infection for two months but it that
declines very sharply after just two or
three
months right so you it doesn't really
prevent you from getting covid you're
very likely to get covid afterwards I
got the shot the fiser shot I've I've
had covid twice since as an
example
personally yep I mean I got the I got
two fiser shot in April 2021 and in
August 2021 I got
Co I you know it's so the marginal
impact of on the likelihood of getting
covid and therefore the Mario carditis
associated with the covid is still
basically the
same the marginal impact of the vaccine
on because you still get so you take the
shot and then you still get covid anyway
so whatever Co was going to do to you
it's still going to do to you yeah it's
like two draws on the Mario carditis uh
you know slot slot
machine right so I mean Co isn't it's a
it's a terrible thing right it's not
like it's nice to have Co I wish we
didn't have it around but that doesn't
bias anything right right um okay so uh
the the the there's that I I have to say
I think for young men the risk of
myocarditis from the vaccine is higher
than the risk of mar marcitis from from
covid uh for older people it's less
really so it really was the case that if
you gave your if you gave your teenage
son the shot you were putting you were
perhaps putting them at higher risk of
myocarditis than just letting them go
play basketball and get covid from their
buddies sweating on each other yeah I
mean there's a lot of arguments in the
literature about this but somewhere
between 1 and 2,000 and one and 10,000
of young men who got the vaccine covid
vaccine got
Martis I mean that's too many especially
since the benefit from the vaccine for
them was minuscule there is this
question though about what to do more
broadly with with our kids and with
vaccination and I in general maybe it's
just because my dad's a doct traditional
MD I have usually been like I ask my dad
what should I get he says get the
standard kind of thing and I go do it
without much reservation when we had our
son my wife was more skeptical
and so I you know going all the way back
my son's 19 you know I looked into this
thing of well do do vaccines cause
autism which was a claim I was even in
my doctor's office because we had sort
of a crunch a little bit of a crunchy
granola doc which my wife picked and he
was telling a
patient vaccines cause
autism do vaccines cause autism
okay so first of all let me unpack that
question right so there's multiple
vaccines many of them uh
and the question is not do vaccines as a
class cause autism but the do the
particular vaccines that are
recommended to be given to Children
cause autism like measles monster
rebella and and such right you got to
you answer the question one at a time
now the allegation the idea that that
that the the VES cause autism actually
came out of uh the first time I heard of
it was a study in the Lancet uh which is
a very famous British medical journal a
small tiny study with I think inadequate
kind of uh kind of kind of methodology
that found that there was some
correlation it's a study that it's the
kind of study that would normally be
published in some like some Journal no
one's heard of and then there would be
there have to be much larger and larger
in investigations before he was studied
but it was published in a very top
medical journal and it caused a lot of
people to think that the MMR vaccine me
meel m rebella vaccine causes autism now
work that has been done subsequent to
that not randomized work but like large
scale population epidemiological studies
of the sort that I deem as credible in
the Netherlands by groups that are not
conflicted have found no correlation of
the MMR vaccine and subsequent autism in
using population scale data so I don't
believe the MMR vaccine causes autism
now it's not randomized so you know I've
tell I've tell my friends who who are
much more skeptical of vaccines than I
am that this and they're like well it's
not randomized and my answer is yeah
right I don't I know I yes you're right
it's not randomized I wish we had a
randomized study that concluded that but
it's hard to conclude a negative from a
randomized study sometimes and so it we
don't have that it's also hard to
convince doctors to run a study for a
intervention like the MMR vaccine that
almost every doctor believes is is
worthwhile to do and then say okay I'm
going to randomize some kid to not get
it right so so I understand this to
continue because the listener who's
skeptical who's made it to this point
and is like okay now we're getting into
the stuff I'm worried about for my
newborn um if most doctors believe MMR
will prevent measles and Ms and rebell
but measles is pretty like these not
good things they they they can be quite
harmful
not giving kids the the
shot feels like it might be almost child
abuse if you believe as a doctor that
this will prevent kids from getting
harmful diseases and it works and it's
well established so to to do the right
isn't that right so to do the control
trial you'd have
to intentionally follow kids that go
unvaccinated and see how many of them
get measel moms rebella versus the the
vaccinated said is that right that's
that's exactly right and no one very few
have been willing to do that or nobody's
has anybody been willing to do that I
mean what would happen is you'd go to a
if if you were if I were to propose such
a study I I wouldn't because i' work on
other things but like if I were to go to
a a try to propose such a study if I
could get funding for the study I would
have to show it to a human subjects
review board which whose job it is to
protect the subjects of the study and
they tell me that it's an unethical
control
arm that I'm not to run the study H um
okay so that's that but so the next best
thing are these large scale population
wide careful carefully controlled
epidemiological databases where you
match people that are very similar to
each other at similar
ages uh some I mean just in reality some
people don't get the vaccine and you
track
them retrospective persp perspectively
and see what happens to them I didn't
tell them not to get the vaccine they
just happen not get it I have they I
capture them in my database and I go go
forward and ask are the people the kids
that were vaccinated more likely to get
autism diagnoses later on than the kids
that are not and large scale studies in
like in Denmark found in like a 2000 in
the year 2000 no the answer is no
they're equally likely to get an Autism
diagnosis um there's some there more
complications here than this so uh let
me just tell you the couple the
complications uh so
one misil mumps and rebella are very bad
if kids get it it's bad for kids to get
it right it uh it can cause death in the
kids but it's very uncommon in part
because of the success of the
vaccination programs so the marginal
benefit in a population that's largely
vaccinated to any particular child
getting vaccinated is actually is
actually
small but if everyone were to choose to
do that then meel M reell would come
back and you would have the marginal
benefit get higher
so what you have is I can choose not to
get the
MMR and go and my my my risks are low
because I'm free riding on a herd
immunity that because most people get
it exactly the other aspect of it is
there's a very talented epidemiologist
in Denmark her name is Christine stable
Ben she has done some really interesting
work asking whether vaccines uh that are
live attenuated
vaccines what impact do they have on on
things that are not targeted by the
vaccine in terms of the health of the
child and it turns out that live attend
in her work live attended vaccines
reduce the risk of mortality from other
diseases not just related to the thing
that you're supposed to protect like so
for instance the oral polio vaccine
which is not the version that's given in
the US is given in Africa in her work in
Africa finds that it red reduces all CA
mortality for children in randomized
studies that get the oral polio vaccine
versus who don't other vaccines that are
not live attenuated vaccines do not have
that that do not have that result what
does that mean live you mean like the
virus is alive instead of dead yes right
the virus the virus uh replicates inside
of you uh so there's like two kinds of
vaccines one kind of vaccine you give
them you give a pathogen that's similar
to the thing you want to prevent that's
still alive you get a you know mild
version of the sickness and then you're
better uh and then you're now protected
against if you were to get you know if
you're if you're subject to polio then
you're not going to get it because
you've already had that that attenuated
version of it um the other version of
the vaccines are essentially dead parts
of it that's what Co the covid vaccine
is an example of this it's not supposed
to it's just producing the spike protein
it's not producing live virus that can
replicate inside of you and it TR your
body to react to that part that's it's
exposed not to the entire live virus
right if you like this clip we've got so
much more where that came from so be
sure to hit that like button subscribe
to the channel and ring the bell so you
won't miss our new videos as they come
out each week
Browse More Related Video
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)