🔍 Why Tesla's Stock Price is so LOW📉!

Summary

The video discusses why Tesla's stock price remains surprisingly low despite the company's strong fundamentals and growth. It suggests Tesla may be intentionally keeping the stock price down to retain employees via stock incentives, attract loyal retail investors, and allow Elon Musk to negotiate executive pay. It also notes that Tesla disrupts convention, so traditional analysts struggle to accurately value the company's leading positions in EVs, energy storage, AI, and more. Overall it sees massive long-term upside for Tesla due to its strategic advantages.

Takeaways

• 😲 Tesla stock price is irrationally low considering its technology lead and growth prospects
• 👍Retail investors understand Tesla's potential much better than Wall Street analysts
• 😎Tesla doesn't care about short term stock price and allows negative media coverage
• 🔋Tesla's energy storage business alone could be worth more than its car business
• 🌟Tesla has insurmountable leads in AI, data and manufacturing capabilities
• 🚘 Legacy automakers sending customers to Tesla's charging network is madness
• 🤖Tesla bot business has massive potential but no impact on stock price yet
• ⚡The new Roadster will destroy supercar makers like Lamborghini and Ferrari
• 📈Tesla appears to be keeping stock price low intentionally for strategic reasons
• 😃Long term investors should be happy to keep buying this remarkable company at a discount

Q & A

What is the main topic of the video?

The main topic is analyzing why Tesla's stock price is lower than expected given the company's growth and potential.

What does the speaker believe is the reason behind Tesla keeping its stock price low?

The speaker believes Tesla is intentionally keeping its stock price low in order to retain employees by allowing them to invest at lower prices, attract loyal retail investors, and allow Elon Musk to negotiate his compensation plan from a lower base.

How does Tesla allow negative media coverage to persist?

Tesla does not invest in public relations to address negative coverage and misinformation. They also do not address concerns about safety, working conditions etc.

What is Tesla's advantage in AI according to the speaker?

Tesla has over 5.5 million vehicles on the road collecting data and doing over 50 billion miles per year. This massive data advantage gives them an insurmountable edge in training AI systems.

What is the speaker's price target for Tesla?

The speaker believes, based on the LILA model, that Tesla will reach a price target of $694.

How could the megapack business be bigger than the car business?

The total addressable market for utility-scale energy storage is substantially larger than the car market. Capturing a fraction of this could yield over $600 billion in annual revenue.

Why does the speaker trust retail investor price targets more than Wall Street?

Retail investors spend thousands of hours analyzing Tesla and understand its diverse business lines. Wall Street focuses too narrowly on autos.

What is Tesla's advantage in manufacturing robots?

Tesla has unmatched expertise in AI, machine learning and integration that gives them an edge in building advanced manufacturing robots like Optimus.

How could the Cybertruck beat high-end sports cars?

With rocket boosters from SpaceX, the Cybertruck can accelerate incredibly fast while towing. It will match or beat supercars in performance at a lower price.

Why does the speaker think there is more upside in the stock?

Despite Tesla's growth and lead in multiple industries, the stock is below its 200-day moving average. This indicates there is substantial room for the price to grow.

Outlines

00:00

😊 Introducing the Tesla Stock Puzzle

The host welcomes viewers and introduces the topic of discussing Tesla's stock price which he finds puzzling given the company's exponential growth and position as a leader in EVs and technology. He shares his philosophy of getting excited when prices fall as it allows purchasing a great company cheaply.

05:02

📈 Comparing Professional vs Retail Tesla Targets

The host analyzes Tesla's stock targets from professional Wall Street analysts which average $355, lower than retail analysts averaging $499. He believes retail analysts understand Tesla's business better as Wall Street is unable to properly categorize Tesla's diverse operations.

10:03

😕 Tesla Allows Negative Media Coverage

The host suggests Tesla intentionally allows negative media coverage and misinformation to persist. He lists examples like lack of PR, not addressing safety concerns or controversies, and Elon Musk's unconventional communication style as hurting public perception.

15:07

🤔 Theories on Why Tesla Keeps Stock Price Down

The host shares theories on why Tesla seems to keep its stock price depressed, like retaining employees by offering purchase opportunities, attracting loyal retail investors, allowing Elon Musk to renegotiate his compensation, and expressing disdain for Wall Street.

Keywords

💡Tesla

Tesla is an American electric vehicle and clean energy company founded in 2003. In the video, it is praised as a highly innovative technology company leading disruption across industries like automotive and energy. But its stock price is not reflecting its strong performance and potential, which the narrator finds puzzling.

💡stock price

The video focuses extensively on analyzing why Tesla's stock price has stayed low and flat despite its exponential growth and market-leading position. The narrator provides several theories, like keeping prices down to retain employees and give retail investors a discount.

💡disruption

One of Tesla and Elon Musk's defining traits highlighted is how they disrupt established industries and set new standards. This includes disrupting Wall Street conventions and stock valuation practices which fail to properly value Tesla's long-term potential.

💡Elon Musk

Elon Musk is the CEO of Tesla who is widely admired but also controversial. His unorthodox communication style and bold actions have led to misconceptions about Tesla. The video suggests Tesla's stock price may be kept low by design to aid Elon's compensation renegotiation.

💡automotive industry

While Tesla is reinventing the automotive industry with EVs and self-driving tech, analysts still misunderstand and undervalue it by comparing to traditional carmakers. But Tesla is positioned to dominate legacy automakers with superior tech and economics.

💡energy storage

Beyond cars, Tesla's expertise in batteries and renewable energy makes it a major player in the utility scale energy storage business which has over 100x more addressable market than EVs. But analysts barely account for high-growth segments like this in their valuation.

💡autonomous driving

Tesla holds an 'insurmountable advantage' in self-driving technology owing to its vast real-world driving data totaling over 50 billion miles per year. This edge in AI is not appreciated by critics while leading to products like the Tesla Bot.

💡retail investors

Retail investors are framed as true believers in Tesla's mission and loyal supporters, while Wall Street remains skeptical. Continued low stock price allows retail investors to keep accumulating shares at a discount.

💡valuation

The video suggests conventional valuation practices are unable to properly assess Tesla's future growth and leadership across manufacturing, software and energy. Retail analyst price targets are far more bullish at nearly $500 on average.

💡future growth

Tesla is expected to see massive growth across segments like insurance, robotaxis, Megapack batteries etc. But there is little transparency or guidance to analysts on these new high-margin revenue streams which are not accounted for in the stock price.

Highlights

Tesla is the only force in the EV market

Elon admires the loyalty and support of retail investors

Low stock price helps retain employees and offer them investment opportunities

Elon wants to renegotiate his compensation plan with the stock at a lower price

Tesla allows negative media coverage and misinformation to persist

There is unrecognized revenue related to energy and warranty services

The battery storage business could be worth more than the car business

Tesla dominates EV charging infrastructure

Tesla has an insurmountable lead in AI from real-world driving data

There is no valuation given to Tesla's potential in robotics

The Roadster will be faster than any supercar while cheaper

The stock price is kept low intentionally for strategic reasons

Few can accurately value all of Tesla's businesses and leads

Tesla sets new standards across industries through innovation

Now is the time to invest while the price is artificially low

Transcripts

Hello everybody welcome to the show

second one today and the wick out on

bitcoin was hilarious but we're here for

another topic today we're talking about

Tesla and this is this is the weirdest

thing that sometimes things just bug me

and they keep me awake and night and I

try to figure out why why why are things

the way they are this is one of the most

special companies ever late 2022 early

2023 with the best buying opportunity

ever literally that was the looking down

the back of the seat of the couch for

coins to buy Bitcoin and let me see did

I go live

yet yeah good just making sure wasn't

sure

anyway here we are

again this company continues to share

the most mindblowing news and yet the

price is not where it should be and

we're going to break all that down and

try to figure out why I think I cracked

the code so thank you all for joining

let's go and uh quick disclaimer no this

is financial advice and shout out to

every in patreon as well who make

everything possible uh we are two bear

says props for the great content happy

to support you to the patreon thank you

for being here and thank you for joying

enjoying all that has to offer and there

always tons to learn every day now

literally inspiration for this is

chatting with a lot of people all the

time time and they sometimes don't

understand my excitement when the price

of Tesla

Falls that's where my brain works it's

like wow we get to buy something really

good really cheap that's what investing

is but people are like why is it not at

400 it's like dude we could buy it 175

like a couple weeks ago it's amazing and

I was talking to FR Mets this is Tesla

Boomer Mama literally only an hour

ago and and we're going back and forth I

told her I bought a little bit today

actually a pretty big chunk that's the

third buy under 200 and uh she's saying

oh I hope the price stays low because I

want to buy more but sometimes people

don't have the exact cash flow coming in

all the time so that was super

interesting so shout out to Alexander

Mets so let's get into what this is all

about and we try to break it all down it

is it is a company that has been uh on

my mind since 2017 in a big way but

they've had exponential growth in recent

years they are the only force in the EV

Market maybe byd too but no byd don't

have the technology they have or the

manufacturing Pros they they Hammer the

cars together with bodies not with

machines and robots they also are a

symbol of massive technological

disruption everything Elon touches he

disrupts that's just the way it works

and Tesla success reflects its strategic

positioning this is very important in

the Forefront of

sustainable everything it's not just

Transportation it's now everything AI

the robot on Wheels which is the car the

bot energy storage chatting with kiwi

robin today you know it's like you know

what about many reactors many nuclear

reactors and I was saying no we have a

reactor in the sky the whole world has

access to it the key is just to store

that energy and distribute it that's it

so that's what they do and the puzzle of

Tesla stock price is really do they want

to keep the stock prices down I always

ask myself these questions um are they

avoiding giving the analy the financial

guidance they want which is vexing them

and there's confusion among investors

due to the very unconventional Tesla

approach if you think Tesla is going to

be con conventional it's not it's just

not how they operate and and you got

very compressed margins and lost

earnings when unrealized revenue is at

all-time high it's like H it doesn't

make sense as if you know my paranoid

mind probably they want to keep the

price down so let's dig into what this

is all about Hello shark lover what a

cool name let's look at some key metrics

as well of where we actually are and

it's pretty obscene to see alltime high

is 414 bucks I bought some under 200

today

and alltime high $414 was over three

years ago 52 we High $300 52 we low 152

bucks two by the way is 106 at the

beginning of the year 2023 200 day

moving average $234 44 50-day 214 like

if in this era of AI we're under the 200

day moving average by $35 it's kind of

nuts market cap 600 billion give or take

and 3 billion

shares what's going on if you go back 3

years and look at where we are today and

all they have done it's crazy now this

came out today as well just literally an

hour or two ago from

RBC and that's the Royal Bank Canada and

they just placed a $297 scientific

Target on the price of Tesla and they

kind of know what they're doing but

let's put the analyst aside for a second

let's break down all the analysts and

where we are so this is the Tesla price

targets from all the analysts as of

today you know at the top of the list is

Tasha keini from Arc invest all the way

down to Gary black from the future fund

at the bottom but if you average all

these top analysts you get an average

price of

$355 79 of course 792 is the top

leaderboard from Arc

invest

nobody in the professional analyst world

has analyzed Tesla like Arch have so

kudos to Arc now let's look at the

retail

analysts uhhuh here we see the very top

is Alpha Quant and we got people in

there that we know and love as well all

the usual names whole Mars

catalog Tesla Herbert I think it's

Herbert on they call him Tesla Herbert

um you name it all the key players are

there Sasha's in there Etc their average

price Target is

$499.58

just shot of 500 bucks interesting

number but the retail analysts are far

higher than the Wall Street analysts why

is that well before we get into the rest

of the story and what I uncovered retail

is I believe far smarter and far more

knowledgeable than your average Wall

Street and Wall Street their problem is

they have to try and pigeon hole Tesla

into an automotive play and it's not

because the automotive analysts don't

understand what Tesla is they can't

stick it in a utility play play and they

can't STI an AI play it's just they're

completely confused and lost but retail

spend the time the thousands of hours to

understand exactly what this thing is

made up of and where it's going that's

why I place a lot more Credence on these

targets than these targets but either

way even just the analyst targets we are

way way way way way lower than we should

be so my theory and before we get into

all the other good stuff and why why

they keep the stock price down first of

all low stock prices help retain

employees by offering them the

opportunity to invest at lower prices

and vest sometimes over multi-year

periods that drives a lot of retention

loyalty and incentivized to stay long

term also the people on the inside know

where the company is going it's also

good to attract retail investors as well

uh and the Tesla and Elon Musk they love

the retail investor the retail investor

has been with them through thick and

thin through even on the verge of

bankruptcy when Elon Musk was sleeping

on a factory floor they never gave up

they never left and Elon admires that

loyalty and he also doesn't admire Wall

Street he has disdain for Wall Street

and the analysts and the shorts and all

those guys and the hedge funds and most

importantly Elon needs to negotiate a

new comp plan we all know that too you

don't want to negotiate a comp plan when

the Stock's at $400 or 600 bucks for

obvious reasons you want it low and

cheap so perhaps there's some strategy

behind this as well uh maybe they are

trying to keep the lid on things but

let's look at a couple of other reasons

too on how Tesla lets the mainstream

media Hammer them all right they they

have a pure team but you could say they

really have none and Tesla has not

invested in any public relations to

address negative media coverage

inaccurate information about the company

and they allow misinformation and

negative coverage to persist okay fair

enough then they don't address concerns

about safety despite it being the safest

car on the planet they don't even they

don't even bother they don't care it's

as if they want people to throw mud at

the company and they won't even bother

washing it off also very unconventional

communication methods El mus

communication style I personally think

it's awesome but some people find it IR

and controversial I'd rather hear truth

and be offended than know somebody's

lying to me and also uh this has led to

a lot of negative media coverage and has

not helped combat criticism effectively

also lack of advertising they're

beginning to do a little bit of it now

but they don't really They Don't Really

Care you know these cars sell themselves

Etc Mega packs have multi-year waiting

lists cyber truck 7.2 year waiting list

um and also there's other controversial

actions that happen out there sometimes

things are said sometimes things are

done who cares but it does bother the

traditional markets and Wall Street also

uh failure to address concerns about

things like working conditions failure

to address environmental concerns

there's recent talk that there's too

much poop in the water in Germany

outside Giga

Berlin I mean this is the most

environmental company in the world but

some of the stuff is just ridiculous but

they don't care they let it slide as if

they want to keep the lid on things and

there's a lot more too there is no talk

of acred Revenue approximate numbers

here but they have energy Revenue that's

unac Creed they just sometimes when you

sell something you can't actually

realize the revenue until it's actually

plugged in but basically it could be on

the verge of being plugged in they also

have a lot of money in warranty services

Revenue because the cars are of such

good

quality the reserves for the warranties

are put to the side but nothing ever

happens to the car I've got a 5-year-old

X outside never had a problem never same

tires 50,000 miles no problems no

warranties required it's kind of Madness

anyway these are these are monies that

are sitting there and that could just be

dumped onto earnings per share at any

time but they don't mention it don't

talk about it also a little comment of

mine earlier today chatting in the

community there's no talk of size of

mega pack and auto bidder business uh

shout out to C Basher him and I had a

great conversation on this and I'll read

this again this is an analyst again from

Royal Bank of Canada and they believe

Tesla's mega pack battery storage

business could be worth substantially

more than it Standalone car business now

that's a big wakeup call because elon's

been saying that for years when you look

at the size of the global utility

industry it's 100x the size of the

automotive industry so that's obvious

but the key numbers here is it could

yield 600 billion annual indust industry

revenue and they could get a huge market

share etc etc

etc bringing it all down and how it's

not even in the stock price and that's

kind of interesting the work they're

doing in place like Australia is

completely mind-blowing especially with

aut bidder they are now in a position

okay to literally resell energy that

they get on behalf of the utilities they

work for it's it's craziness there's no

talk of the fueling station domination

as I call it they own the gas stations

and a shout out as well to SJ it's also

super smart you've got everybody in

there now rivan has just joined you got

General Motors Volvo stantis po store uh

and they're opening up the charge

network network to everybody but per top

physician it's also a super smart thing

to do it's like me sending my patients

to another doctor to get a prescription

that is

fatal for that doctor's image and sales

to send his patent patient his customer

to another physician all right all the

other car companies are sending their

cars to another gas station energy

station fueling station whatever you

want to call it it's Madness it's

Madness the halo effect of this alone

will be insane in addition there's no

talk of their insurmountable AI

Advantage again Apple before they just

shot their program had 67 Vehicles

testing automated driving 450,000 Mi a

year and you got the weo data and all

these other players zukes Etc Tesla has

over 5 and a half million Vehicles all

right and they're doing over 50 billion

miles a

year and they track everything and they

see everything okay this is an absolute

insurmountable insurmountable Advantage

the edge cases that they can cover all

over the world are insane no other

company is in a position to do that and

there's little talk is the odd video but

no real words as to what's going on

there's no talk of the bot potential you

got companies now getting Public Funding

in the multi-billion dollar valuation of

course there not a penny not a penny

from the analysts on their uh price

targets for Tesla and Tesla have the

most incredible expertise in Ai and

machine learning they've been doing this

from the get-go uh their expertise can

be applied to everything including

robots allowing them to navigate and

interact with the environment more

effectively their manufacturing

capabilities are second to none and

they're about to get a whole lot better

with model 2 which apparently rumor has

it the line is set for model 2 and the

design is locked in okay we just they

just surprised the world yesterday as

well we'll talk about that in a second

um and their background and

Manufacturing the way they unthink

everything best part is no part Etc best

process is no process they are so far

have it's

scary in addition they integrate

everything with existing products they

use SpaceX to make metal for cars they

use SpaceX to generate boosters for cars

again it it is crazy and their access to

data a second to none they have an

integrated platform uh integrated Erp

CRM analytics you name it Allin one

platform and they can configure demands

for their vendors on the Fly also they

have an extremely strong brand Etc when

they nail this

spot there will be no choice it'll be

Optimus or something crappy at a much

higher price that's just the way of the

world and then they launch this Roadster

okay for those Formula 1 fans out there

this thing will do not to 60 below 1

second because of SpaceX there will be

never no other car like this bye-bye

Lamborghini Ferrari Porsche all these

companies I think they they have a

monopoly on speed no and I guarantee you

this Roadster will probably maybe 200k a

lot cheaper than any of these other cars

and it'll be a lot faster a lot safer

and it'll drive itself and it'll be

faster in the Formula 1 car so

completely crazy and if you think that's

crazy well the Cyber truck is already

faster than the Porsche towing a

Porsche the Legacy sports car makers are

toast if of course Tes can buy them

enough so let's get down to the

nitty-gritty as to the conclusion why is

the stock price so low considering all

the value they had have all the

insurmountable leads it's crazy so let's

get to my theory before we're going to

look at two charts one is the

ATR uh we're only at level three this is

a multi-year time frame model that looks

at the macro situation of an asset and

where we are we're level three from from

six levels and basically middle of the

road considering we're in an AI

Revolution and this is the leading

player in the space why is it not back

at all alltime highs it's crazy but the

good news for us is there's lots of

upside but we don't know why or do we

why they're keeping the stock price

depressed let's look at the Lila model

layer in layer out model and basically

what this does is projects forward where

the price could actually go so level

seven is 43 bucks level8 514 level 9 626

and level 10 is

$694 we know we're going to level 10

$694 the question when and as we saw

recently risk happens fast literally in

24 hours salana went up 30% and we've

seen what Bitcoin can do we've seen what

Nvidia does this thing will pop we just

don't know when but we do know that lid

has been kept on it now let's talk about

the conclusion part one first of all I

do believe Tesla is keeping stock low to

retain employees to give loyal retail

investors like you and I an edge and

allow Elon to renegotiate his comp plan

pretty clear also give the finger to

Wall Street whatever that means I'm not

quite sure but yeah he's not a fan of

Wall Street and part two literally Tesla

strategic strategy disrupts

everything not just Wall Street man

stock management practices but all

traditional businesses and few are able

to place a value on what this thing is

its remarkable

success its advantages over everybody

else it's its lead in terms of 7 to 10

years AC from everybody else and they

are setting new industry standards for

everything including cars and energy

storage and auto bidder which is an AI

play and the bot and by thinking

differently and bold actions as I said

they're not going to be conventional

Tesla and Elon Musk will have their chat

gbt moment so in the meantime stack as

Alexandra mer said I hope the price

stays low so I can buy more and she's

all in on Tesla so with that every hope

you like the video don't see this as bad

or depressing when you have an

extraordinary company at a low price you

should be happy that's my logic at least

could be Floyd who am I just some crazy

guy on the internet thank you all for

coming thank you T andd Tesla and K8 and

the mods in the chat it's only a Tesla

only fans group here today but there's

nearly 3,000 of you so hit the like on

the way out everybody thank you so much

for coming and I'll see you all

tomorrow no more videos for me today

please

[Music]

bye