Is TSLA Ready To Go Higher Yet? - TSLA, SPY, QQQ Update

Summary

In this video, the creator provides an in-depth analysis of Tesla's stock performance, highlighting its bullish outlook despite some uncertainties. The video covers the latest market movements, including the impact of Elon Musk's compensation package, key technical indicators like moving averages, MACD, and the rising triangle pattern suggesting a potential breakout. The creator stresses the importance of monitoring key price levels, particularly in the low 350s, and discusses broader market trends like the QQQ and SPY performance. With an emphasis on patience and strategic monitoring, the creator remains bullish on Tesla's long-term potential.

Takeaways

• 😀 Tesla's stock performance has been positive recently, with the company showing strength compared to other major tech stocks like Google.
• 😀 Elon's newly announced compensation package has had a positive impact on Tesla's stock, driving a constructive move.
• 😀 The overall market trend for Tesla appears bullish, with bullish signals coming from indicators like the exponential moving averages (EMAs) and MACD.
• 😀 Tesla is in a rising triangle pattern on the weekly chart, and while it's close, it's not fully clear yet whether it will break out higher.
• 😀 To confirm a bullish breakout, Tesla needs to break and hold above the low 350s, specifically closing candles above this level on a weekly basis.
• 😀 A rejection from current levels could lead to more sideways trading within a broader range, but the long-term outlook remains bullish as long as key levels are held.
• 😀 If Tesla breaks above the 350s, the target is around 380, with a longer-term target near 430 based on the current pattern.
• 😀 Key levels to watch for potential bearish action include the mid-320s, as a break below that would suggest a shift to a bearish trend.
• 😀 The broader market is showing mixed signs, with the QQQ outperforming the SPY, though both indexes have signs of uncertainty going into next week.
• 😀 Despite the concerns in the broader market, the bulls are still holding key levels in both the QQQ and SPY, and a breakout could lead to new all-time highs for these indexes.
• 😀 Tesla's options flow is more bullish than bearish, but there are still some significant bearish positions in play, indicating mixed sentiment in the short term.

Q & A

What is the overall market sentiment on Tesla stock according to the video?

The overall sentiment on Tesla stock is bullish. The speaker mentions that most indicators, such as the exponential moving averages (EMAs), MACD, and stochastic, are signaling bullish trends. The speaker believes that unless key levels are lost, Tesla is set to go higher.

What specific technical indicators are pointing to bullishness for Tesla?

Several technical indicators point to bullishness, including the exponential moving averages (9 EMA above 21 EMA and 21 EMA above 50 EMA), the MACD showing some green momentum, the stochastic above 60, and a positive super trend signal. These all support a bullish view.

What is the significance of the rising triangle pattern on Tesla's weekly chart?

The rising triangle pattern on the weekly chart is seen as a bullish formation. The speaker believes that Tesla is still within this pattern, and once it breaks above certain levels (like the low 350s), it could lead to a significant breakout higher.

What levels should investors watch for Tesla's breakout?

Investors should watch for Tesla to break above the low 350s and hold that level. A weekly close above this range would suggest a bullish breakout. The speaker's target after this breakout is at least the 380s, and possibly as high as the 430s.

What is the worst-case scenario for Tesla stock according to the video?

The worst-case scenario for Tesla would involve a rejection at current levels, causing the stock to trade within a wide, choppy range for several weeks or months. If Tesla fails to maintain key levels, a downward trend could develop, and a significant loss in momentum could occur.

What key level does the speaker identify as a bearish signal for Tesla?

The speaker identifies the mid-320s as a key level to watch. If Tesla falls below this range, it would suggest a shift from higher highs and higher lows to a potential bearish trend, marking a failure of the bullish pattern.

What broader market trends are being monitored alongside Tesla?

The speaker monitors the broader market indices like QQQ and SPY. QQQ is showing potential for a breakout, but the speaker notes the need for a couple of days above certain levels to confirm bullish momentum. SPY is holding key support but shows some signs of weakness, such as a bearish divergence in the MACD.

What does the speaker say about the recent options flow for Tesla?

The recent options flow for Tesla shows more bullish activity, but there are still notable bearish positions, particularly some large out-of-the-money put options. The speaker remains cautious about a potential bearish move but notes that these large, aggressive put options are often seen as speculative and may not be reliable indicators.

What is the outlook for the broader market given the current conditions?

The outlook for the broader market is mixed but still leans towards bullishness. While SPY and QQQ are holding critical support levels, there are concerns about bearish divergence in some stocks like Nvidia. The speaker suggests that unless key levels are lost, the bulls are still in control, but caution is warranted due to September seasonality.

How does the speaker suggest handling potential market uncertainty in the short term?

In the short term, the speaker suggests that investors may want to lighten their load and reduce exposure but not necessarily go fully bearish. There needs to be more concrete signs of bearish momentum before making major moves. The key is to monitor the market day by day, especially early next week.