USA vs Brazil Picks and Predictions | 2024 Olympics Basketball Quarterfinals Best Bets 8/6/24

Summary

In this sports betting analysis, Steve Merl from wagertalk.com discusses the upcoming Olympic men's basketball elimination game between the USA and Brazil. He evaluates the point spread, suggesting that the odds are well set, and recommends betting on the first half line for Team USA to start strong. Merl also highlights potential player prop bets, focusing on LeBron James and Kevin Durant to score over 14.5 points each, and encourages viewers to subscribe for more betting insights and offers.

Takeaways

• 🏀 The elimination games for men's Olympic basketball begin on Tuesday, August 6th.
• 🇺🇸 The USA team faces Brazil at 3:30 Eastern Time on Tuesday afternoon.
• 📺 The game will be broadcast on the USA Network.
• 📊 Steve Merl from wagertalk.com discusses betting strategies for the game.
• 📈 The USA team was favored to win by large margins in their first three games but underachieved against the spread.
• 🔢 The USA is a 27-point favorite against Brazil in the elimination game.
• 🇧🇷 Brazil made it to the quarterfinals by a narrow margin, finishing third in their group.
• 🤔 Steve suggests that the oddsmakers set the point spread accurately, based on historical data and common opponents.
• 📉 Steve recommends betting on the first half line for the USA team, as they may not maintain intensity throughout the entire game.
• 🌟 He highlights player props for LeBron James and Kevin Durant, expecting them to score over 14.5 points each in the first half.
• 🎯 Steve also suggests keeping an eye on in-game betting opportunities, especially if the USA team starts slow.

Q & A

What event is being discussed in the video?

The video discusses the elimination games in the men's Olympic basketball tournament, specifically focusing on the game between the USA and Brazil.

When and where can viewers watch the USA vs. Brazil game?

The USA vs. Brazil game can be watched on Tuesday, August 6th at 3:30 Eastern time on the USA Network.

How has the USA performed against the spread in their first three games?

The USA has underachieved against the spread, going 1-2 despite winning all three games by double digits.

What is the point spread for the USA vs. Brazil game?

The point spread for the USA vs. Brazil game is 27 points, with the USA being the favorite.

How did Brazil perform in their group stage games?

Brazil finished third in their group with a 7-point differential and managed to edge out Spain to advance.

What betting strategy does Steve Merl suggest for the USA vs. Brazil game?

Steve Merl suggests focusing on the first half line, with the USA favored by 15 points, as he believes they are more likely to start strong and then conserve energy in the second half.

Which players does Steve Merl highlight for potential player prop bets?

Steve Merl highlights LeBron James and Kevin Durant for potential player prop bets, suggesting betting on them to score over 14.5 points each.

Why does Steve Merl favor betting on the first half line instead of the full game line?

Steve Merl favors the first half line because the USA has shown a tendency to take their foot off the gas in the second half and mix in other players, making the full game line riskier.

What previous games does Steve Merl use to derive his power ratings for the point spread?

Steve Merl uses previous games between the USA, Germany, and Greece to derive his power ratings, noting their performances and point spreads.

What additional content does Steve Merl offer viewers on WagerTalk TV?

Steve Merl offers weekly college and pro football free play videos, daily baseball free play videos, and daily shows on WagerTalk TV. He also provides personal best bets in all sports for subscribers.

Outlines

00:00

🏀 Men's Olympic Basketball Quarterfinals Analysis

The script discusses the upcoming men's Olympic basketball quarterfinals between the USA and Brazil, scheduled for Tuesday, August 6th. The USA team, which has won all its previous games by double digits but has underperformed against the spread, is now a 27-point favorite against Brazil, a team that barely made it to the quarterfinals. The speaker, Steve Merl from wagertalk.com, plans to analyze the point spread and betting opportunities for this game. He explains his method for deriving power ratings and suggests that the oddsmakers have set the line accurately. He also discusses the USA's tendency to start strong but not finish as strongly, suggesting that betting on the first half might be a better strategy. In-game betting opportunities are also mentioned, particularly if the USA team starts slow in the first quarter.

05:00

🏆 Betting Strategies and Player Props for USA vs. Brazil

In this paragraph, the focus shifts to betting strategies and player props for the USA vs. Brazil game. The speaker suggests that betting on the first half, with the USA as a -15 favorite, could be a good approach, given the team's tendency to start strong and then conserve energy for later games. He also discusses the importance of identifying the starting lineup, as player props can be tricky to predict. The speaker highlights LeBron James and Kevin Durant as two superstars likely to have big games, both aiming for over 14.5 points. He also mentions the USA's potential to score heavily against Brazil, which lacks NBA talent, and advises viewers to consider the first half bet and in-game adjustments if the USA starts slow. The paragraph ends with a call to action for viewers to engage with the content, share their thoughts, and subscribe for more betting insights and analysis.

Keywords

💡Elimination Games

Elimination games refer to the matches in a tournament where the losing team is eliminated from the competition. In the video, the speaker discusses the start of the elimination games in the men's Olympic basketball tournament, emphasizing the high stakes and competitive nature of these games.

💡Point Spread

A point spread is a margin of victory that a team is expected to win by in a sports betting context. The speaker breaks down how to analyze point spreads for betting purposes, specifically for the game between the USA and Brazil, indicating the USA as a 27-point favorite.

💡Oddsmakers

Oddsmakers are professionals who set the betting odds for sports events. The script mentions that oddsmakers have set the USA as a significant favorite, and the speaker discusses whether this line is accurate based on his own power ratings.

💡Power Ratings

Power ratings are a system used to evaluate the relative strength of teams, often in sports betting. The speaker explains his method of deriving power ratings to determine the expected point spread, using past games and common opponents as a reference.

💡Favor

In the context of betting, a 'favor' refers to the predicted margin of victory for one team over another. The script discusses Germany as a 14-point favorite over Brazil, which helps to establish a baseline for the expected point spread in the USA vs. Brazil game.

💡Underdog

An underdog is a team that is expected to lose a game or match. Brazil is referred to as the '27-point dog' in the script, indicating they are the underdog in the game against the USA.

💡First Half Line

The first half line is a specific betting line that predicts the outcome of the first half of a game, separate from the full game. The speaker suggests that betting on the first half line might be a strategic move, given the USA's tendency to start strong and then let up.

💡In-Game Betting

In-game betting refers to placing bets on a game after it has started, based on the live action. The script mentions in-game betting as a potential opportunity if the USA team gets down early in the first quarter.

💡Player Props

Player props are betting propositions focused on individual player performances rather than team outcomes. The speaker discusses the unpredictability of player props, especially regarding the starting lineup and the potential for certain players to score over a certain number of points.

💡Allstars

Allstars refers to a group of highly skilled or famous players. The script mentions that even with all the allstars on the bench, the USA team has shown a tendency not to finish games strong, which is a factor in considering betting strategies.

💡Scrape

To scrape in a sports context means to win narrowly or to compete toughly despite being the underdog. Brazil is described as a 'scrappy team' in the script, indicating they play hard even without having the advantage.

Highlights

The elimination games in the men's Olympic basketball tournament begin on Tuesday, August 6th.

USA faces Brazil at 3:30 Eastern Tuesday afternoon on the USA Network.

Steve Merl from wagertalk.com breaks down power ratings for the point spread in the game.

US team underachieved against the spread despite winning all three preliminary games.

Brazil's team performance analysis, including their close losses to France and Germany.

Oddsmakers set the USA as a 27-point favorite over Brazil.

Discussion on deriving power ratings using previous meetings and common opponents.

Germany's performance against Brazil used as a barometer for the USA's point spread.

Steve's strategy for betting on the first half line at minus 15 for the USA.

Analysis of the USA's tendency to not finish strong in games.

In-game betting opportunities for the USA if they get down early in the first quarter.

Player props and the unpredictability of the starting lineup.

LeBron and Kevin Durant's potential performance in the game.

Brazil's scrappy play style and lack of NBA talent.

Steve's offer for free access to his personal Best Bets for the rest of August.

Steve's daily free plays and his selective approach to betting.

Invitation to subscribe and turn on notifications for instant alerts on wager talk TV.

Transcripts

the elimination games in the men's

Olympic basketball tournament begin this

Tuesday August the 6th and the USA faces

Brazil at 3:30 Eastern Tuesday afternoon

on the USA Network going to watch this

game you might as well enjoy it and make

some money while you do so I'm going to

break down how I divide my power ratings

for the point spread in this game but

more importantly where I think the best

betting opportunities are for this game

in the quarterfinals between Brazil and

the USA that's coming up free with

analysis in this video in just a moment

hi this is Steve Merl wagertalk.com

right back here on wager talk TV and we

are talking elimination round now you

know the US has kind of slept walk their

way through the first three games they

won all three easily by double digits

but us point spread betters don't feel

like they exactly overachieved in fact

they underachieved according to the

oddsmakers they were just one and two

against the spread despite going 3 and0

including back-to-back wins but non

covers against South Sudan and Puerto

Rico and now we find the USA is a

27-point favorite over Brazil a team

that snuck in by one point after finish

third in their group with a ne7 point

differential they edged out Spain who

was minus 8 point differential so that

18-point win is only a four-point

favorite against Japan made a difference

they had to blow Japan out and they did

so but Brazil actually hung tough

against France and Germany losing by 13

to 14 point margins in fact they never

Trail by more than 16 points in any of

the three uh qualifying games and now

they're a 27o dog so what do we do with

this point spread here well first of all

I think the oddsmakers did an EXC

excellent job here and here's how I

derive my power ratings it's very

difficult to put point spreads on this

game we talked about that earlier this

last week South Sudan a 43-point dog

they lose by one then they're only a

29-point dog they cover again they

played CIA tight the oddsmakers didn't

know how to price South Sudan but we can

look at the previous meetings here and

derive some a common opponents the US

played Germany in the uh stage play or

in the exhibition season last month they

only won by four they were about a 15

and 1 Half Point favorite in that game

if they were to play again I think

they'd be about a 12 to 13o favorite now

when Germany and Greece played Greece

was a double digit dog in that game uh

earlier in the Olympics uh so we can

somewhat use that as a barometer once

again to figure out where a pure point

spread should be for this game and

looking back on that Brazil um Germany

game I'm going to pull up the archive

here on the wager talk live odds screen

by the way you can go back on the wager

talk live odd screen and see all the

past results and the opening and closing

lines you'll see that uh Germany opened

is a for 14 point favor it closed as a

14-point favor very little movement they

won by 13 so that line was pretty much

spoton so say that you know Germany is

14 better than Brazil us is probably 12

to 13 better than Germany that'd be a 26

to 27 point line and that's exactly

where it is right now 27 across the

board so I do think this line came in

where it should be had it been inside or

outside that 25 to 29 range I would have

had to lean on one side of the other now

since we're neutral on the point sprad

as far as value goes I'm hard pressed to

bet against the Americans in an

elimination game but once again we have

seen them take their foot off the gas so

I think the best way to attack the point

spread in this game is to cut it in half

let's look at the first half line

currently minus 15 if you're going to

play the USA here I think the minus 15

makes sense now granted you're laying

more than half in the first half but

they have taken their foot off the gas

and they will probably conserve and mix

other players in in the second half and

just advance to the semi-final game on

Thursday now you can make the argument

that there's no drop off when you have

Allstars coming off the bench such as

bam Medio Kevin Durant Devin Booker Etc

but they have shown some tendency to not

finish strong they only be Puerto Rico

by 21 now they were losing early in that

game they're also uh losing early in the

South Sudan game and they were up by 19

of the half and keep in mind that came

after a lackluster start against Serbia

which they turned it on in the second

half so now I look for them to start

strong again like they did against South

Sudan but then they took their foot off

the gas in the second half of that game

so the fact that they did not cover

against Puerto Rico a little bit of a

lack start they were losing outright in

the second quarter on Saturday I think

that ensures a stronger start here

particularly like them in the second

quarter so this game is close ingame

take a look at the ingame bet on the USA

that worked out well against Puerto Rico

and it also worked out well against

South Sudan and actually worked out even

against Serbia they're down early in

that game as well last week but once

again I like the first half better than

the full game minus 15 Team USA look for

him to start strong and also maybe an

in-game betting opport if they do get

down early in the first quarter don't be

afraid to pull the trigger on an

adjusted first half line or even an

in-game line if that'll work well also

now if they start fast then we have to

figure out who's going to be in the

starting lineup if we're looking at

player props and that has been a bit

tricky because Tatum didn't play at all

and then he played a lot he started the

next two games and bid did not play at

all against South Sudan he started and

had a monster game against Puerto Rico

and by the way we gave that to you as

our top opinion here hopefully you're

able to find a Linea oddsmakers don't

always post player props on everybody we

all knew embiid was going to start and

he'd have a monster game and he did so

now embid did start most of the

exhibition games for t Team USA in July

so wouldn't be surprised to see him in

the lineup again so trying to guess

who's going to play more Anthony Davis

or embiid becomes a little tricky but

one thing we know for certain LeBron's

going to be in the starting lineup and

he will play a good amount while the

game is in hand which means the first

half I like LeBron over 14 and a half

points Kevin Durant's been coming off

the bench but he's the all-time Olympic

leading scorer he made that Mark on

Saturday passing Carmelo Anthony I think

the uh assist records in reach I think

he still can reach Lisa Lesley for the

all-time Olympic scoring record in all

of basketball for Team USA so you know

he's going to get his minutes and he

only had 10 points in the last game he

had a streak of 20 plus five straight 20

plus games broken earlier this month um

so I think he gets back on track over 14

and a half as well by the way LeBron

only had 10 points in limited minutes

against Puerto Rico so I like LeBron and

Durant the two true superstars on this

team to have big games both over 14 and

a half I'd be surprised if we don't go

at least one and one if not 2-0 with

that and also I think it correlates to

the USA minus5 first half to get the

strong start Brazil's a scrappy team but

they don't really have any NBA Talent so

the USA can name their score here being

just a quarterfinal game they do have

bigger games on Deck so that concerns me

as far as the full game minus 27 and

they have been a bit lackluster but

coming off a slow start against Puerto

Rico just like they had a slow start

against Serbia then they turned it on up

by 19 in the first half against South

Sudan and by the way they only won by 17

I think the minus first 15us 15 first

half that's a mouthful is the best way

to attack this game on Tuesday at 3:30

Eastern on the USA Network hey if you're

enjoying these Olympic breakdowns give

me a thumbs up on the video and comment

below let me know I will continue to do

the semifinal and the bronze and gold

medal games as well so once again I'll

do the remaining games for this Olympic

tournament both semi- games and also the

bronze and gold medal games later this

week for Thursday and Saturday if you're

finding these video videos useful thumbs

up like and comment com below let me

know I read all the comments and I reply

back how are you attacking this game

Brazil and Team USA on Tuesday afternoon

what other betting opportunities whether

they're player props or on your radar

hey leave some analysis if you have time

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