aug5 1

Summary

In this weekly trading video, the host reviews past stock picks, emphasizing their performance and the importance of timely action. They discuss the market's potential inflection point, advising day trading due to technical confirmation needed for long-term trades. The video includes analysis of specific stocks like ULA, COST, and RTX, highlighting their recent price movements and future trading opportunities. The host also addresses the impact of mega-cap tech earnings and economic indicators on market trends, suggesting a cautious approach in the coming weeks.

Takeaways

• 📅 The video is a weekly update for traders, discussing past stock picks and market analysis.
• 📉 The speaker emphasizes the importance of reviewing past picks and not just presenting new ones.
• 🚀 The speaker has been encouraging day trading due to an anticipated market inflection point, avoiding long-term swing trades until technical confirmation.
• 📊 The video includes a systematic trading approach and a review of the speaker's past content since the 2008 financial crisis to demonstrate the validity of their teachings.
• 👍 The speaker asks for engagement in the form of likes and subscriptions to help reach a larger audience.
• 📉 There is a focus on short-term trading opportunities, with specific stock picks like ULA and CCO being discussed as potential shorts.
• 📈 The speaker also mentions long positions, with examples like RTX and HWM, highlighting their relative strength during market sell-offs.
• 📊 Technical analysis plays a significant role, with discussions on support and resistance levels, trend lines, and indicators like the RSI.
• 📈 Mega-cap tech stocks are a significant driver of market movement, and their recent earnings reports have had mostly negative impacts.
• 🔍 Economic indicators such as ISM Manufacturing, ADP, and the jobs report show weaker-than-expected results, raising recession concerns.
• 📉 The speaker anticipates a market decline, with a bounce expected after testing the 50-day moving average, and advises caution in a news vacuum period.

Q & A

What is the main difference between the speaker's approach and that of Internet gurus when giving stock picks?

The speaker emphasizes accountability and follow-through, unlike Internet gurus who may give a pick and then not follow up on its performance. The speaker reviews every single pick made previously and shows how it has performed, offering actual trades rather than just theoretical or photoshopped profits and losses.

How does the speaker's systematic trading approach work?

The speaker's systematic trading approach involves reviewing past picks, conducting market analysis, and then using a systematic method to find new trades. This approach is time-tested and has been applied consistently since the financial crisis in 2008.

Why has the speaker been encouraging day trading in recent weeks?

The speaker has been encouraging day trading because they felt the market was approaching an inflection point and did not want to engage in a lot of swing trading without technical confirmation for longer-term bearish trades.

What is the significance of the speaker's mention of developing a watch list based on their picks?

Developing a watch list based on the speaker's picks allows traders to have a selection of stocks ready for analysis when the market experiences a pullback, enabling them to make informed decisions quickly.

How did the stock 'UAL' perform after the speaker recommended it as a short?

UAL performed well as a short, breaking down below a major horizontal support level and then experiencing a compression followed by a return of sellers, which led to further decline in the stock's price.

What is the speaker's current stance on the stock 'COST' (Costco)?

The speaker still likes COST as a short, expecting it to have another leg lower, potentially down to the 100-day moving average. However, they acknowledge that COST is a consumer defensive stock and may hold up relatively well after a market decline.

What was the speaker's strategy regarding 'RTX' when they recommended it as a long?

The speaker recommended RTX as a long to take advantage of the intraday volatility in the market. The strategy was to have both longs and shorts in the portfolio to capitalize on market fluctuations.

How did the speaker trade 'MCD' during the live event, and what was the outcome?

The speaker traded MCD during the live event by shorting it after a significant decline. They exited the August puts at about $370 after the stock continued to move lower and closed on its low, resulting in a profitable trade.

What indicators does the speaker use to evaluate potential entry points for a short position in a stock?

The speaker uses indicators such as the long-term trend line, the 200-day moving average, and the LSI (LRSI) indicator on a 30-minute or H1 basis to evaluate potential entry points for a short position.

How did the earnings reports of mega-cap tech stocks impact the market?

The earnings reports of mega-cap tech stocks, which were mostly negative, led to a sell-off and contributed to the market's decline. This also allowed short sellers to become more aggressive.

What economic indicators have recently shown signs of weakness, suggesting potential economic slowdown?

Indicators such as the ISM Manufacturing index, ADP job numbers, and the jobs report have shown weakness, with numbers coming in lower than expected, suggesting a potential slowdown in economic growth.

What is the speaker's view on the market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's statement and the upcoming period of recess?

The speaker believes the market is nervous due to the lack of new information from the Federal Reserve and the upcoming period of recess, which may contribute to increased market volatility and uncertainty.

How does the speaker describe the impact of the upcoming news vacuum on the market?

The speaker suggests that the market will be influenced by the results of the week's events for the next five to six weeks due to the lack of significant news, creating a news vacuum that may exacerbate market trends.