個別股票評論及焦點 watchlist (8-Aug-2021)|學習方法的看法
Summary
TLDRIn this video, Chart-reader CUP shares his weekly stock reviews and watchlist, emphasizing that his content is for educational purposes and not financial advice. He discusses the futility of buy/sell alert services, citing the MPA experience and the importance of learning and applying trading methods personally. He also provides insights into his current stock positions, market performance, and strategies, highlighting the need for active learning and personal growth in trading.
Takeaways
- 📈 The speaker emphasizes that their stock commentary and watchlist are for educational purposes and not financial advice, urging viewers to do their own research and assess risks before investing.
- 📊 They do not provide specific buy or sell points like many paid services do, instead focusing on sharing their actual trading actions in real-time on Discord to ensure the authenticity of their discussions.
- 💡 The speaker explains that providing a 'buy now, sell now' service is fundamentally flawed, as it often leads to collective buying or selling that can manipulate the market and result in losses for followers.
- 🎓 They highlight the importance of learning the underlying methods and strategies of trading, rather than just following buy/sell signals, to achieve long-term success in the market.
- 🏆 The speaker mentions their experience with a high-profile trading alert service, noting that despite the service's reputation, they stopped using it after a few months due to its inherent issues.
- 📚 The speaker advocates for active learning and teaching as the best ways to truly understand and internalize trading knowledge, rather than passively consuming content.
- 💼 They discuss the balance between sharing educational content and maintaining a livelihood, mentioning that while they do charge for their services, the focus is on providing value and fostering a win-win situation.
- 📉 The speaker provides specific examples of stocks they are currently holding or have recently traded, discussing the reasons behind their decisions and the current market conditions.
- 📈 The script includes analysis of various stocks and sectors, noting which have performed well recently and which have not, with a focus on understanding the market dynamics behind these movements.
- 💡 The speaker discusses the concept of 'active learning' and how teaching others can reinforce one's own understanding and improve trading strategies.
- 🚀 The speaker concludes by summarizing their approach to stock commentary and the importance of providing educational value to their audience.
Q & A
What is the main purpose of Chart-reader CUP's video content?
-The main purpose of Chart-reader CUP's video content is to share experiences and provide educational insights on stock trading, rather than giving specific investment advice.
Why doesn't Chart-reader CUP provide buy/sell points in his stock reviews?
-Chart-reader CUP does not provide buy/sell points because he aims to create an authentic, witnessed record of his trades to ensure the accuracy of his discussed trades and performance, rather than offering a paid service with specific trading prompts.
What is the significance of the portfolio equity curve in Chart-reader CUP's approach?
-The portfolio equity curve is significant because it serves as a visual representation of the trader's performance and strategy effectiveness, which cannot be replaced by just a screenshot from a brokerage account.
What is the issue with buy now/sell now alert services according to Chart-reader CUP?
-The issue with buy now/sell now alert services is that they often lead to a herd mentality, causing self-fulfilling market movements that can result in failure for those following the service without understanding the underlying strategies.
Why did Chart-reader CUP stop using the MPA service after a few months?
-Chart-reader CUP stopped using the MPA service after a few months because he realized that simply following buy/sell alerts without understanding the methods and strategies behind them was not a path to success in trading.
What is Chart-reader CUP's view on the importance of learning and applying trading methods?
-Chart-reader CUP believes that learning and applying trading methods is crucial for success in trading. It involves understanding the methods, practicing them, and adapting them to one's own personality and situation to make informed decisions.
How does Chart-reader CUP approach teaching and learning in the context of trading?
-Chart-reader CUP views teaching as a form of active learning, where by presenting information and discussing it with others, he can clarify his own understanding and improve his own trading skills.
What is the role of active learning in Chart-reader CUP's educational philosophy?
-Active learning plays a central role in Chart-reader CUP's educational philosophy as it allows for deeper understanding and retention of knowledge by engaging in discussions, creating trading plans, and teaching others.
How does Chart-reader CUP explain the concept of 'why not both' in relation to his approach to trading and teaching?
-'Why not both' reflects Chart-reader CUP's belief in a win-win approach where he can teach others, helping them to learn and potentially earn more, while also gaining new insights and income for himself.
What is the significance of the learning pyramid in Chart-reader CUP's educational strategy?
-The learning pyramid signifies the different levels of learning effectiveness, with Chart-reader CUP advocating for more interactive and practical methods such as teaching others and creating trading plans, which lead to better knowledge retention.
How does Chart-reader CUP view the role of internet resources in modern learning compared to traditional books?
-Chart-reader CUP acknowledges the power of the internet for learning, stating that it can provide immediate access to a vast amount of information, making it a more efficient tool for targeted learning than traditional books.
Outlines
📈 Stock Review and Trading Philosophy
Chart-reader CUP introduces the video's focus on individual stock reviews and watchlist highlights, emphasizing the educational purpose of the content rather than providing investment advice. He clarifies that his approach differs from paid services by not specifying buy or sell points, instead opting for a transparent record of his trades on Discord. CUP stresses the importance of personal verification and risk assessment in investing. He critiques the buy-now/sell-now alert services, using his experience with MPA, and explains the inherent flaws in such services due to collective action effects and the lack of personalized strategy adaptability. He concludes by advocating for a win-win approach, where both he and his audience benefit from shared knowledge and experience.
📚 Embracing Active Learning in Trading
The speaker discusses the importance of active learning in trading, suggesting that simply following buy/sell cues is insufficient for success. He uses the example of WMS to illustrate how a collective response to trading alerts can lead to market manipulation and subsequent losses. CUP emphasizes the need for traders to develop their own routines, experience, methods, and styles to make informed decisions. He shares his personal journey of learning from books and the limitations he found with traditional learning methods, advocating for a more targeted approach to learning specific problems. He introduces the learning pyramid concept, suggesting that teaching and practical application are the most effective ways to learn and retain information in trading.
📊 Stock Performance Analysis and Watchlist Update
CUP provides an update on his stock watchlist, highlighting the performance of various stocks such as SQ and AMN, which have shown significant gains. He discusses the performance of different sectors, with financial and utility stocks leading the week. He goes through a list of stocks, including JPM, KBE, and CRM, analyzing their recent price actions and his trading decisions based on technical indicators and market conditions. He also mentions his approach to managing position sizes and exit strategies, using tools like the Chandelier exit. The summary ends with a look ahead to upcoming earnings reports and the potential impact on stock prices.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Chart-reader CUP
💡Watchlist
💡Discord
💡Portfolio equity curve
💡Subscription fees
💡False breakout/uptrust
💡Stop out
💡Active learning
💡VCP (Volume Contraction Pattern)
💡Position Resizing
💡Chandelier exit
Highlights
Introduction to the weekly individual stock review and watchlist, emphasizing the content is for educational purposes only and not investment advice.
Clarification that the presenter does not provide specific buy or sell points like many paid services, but shares their own transactions for transparency.
Discussion on the ineffectiveness of buy/sell alert services and the importance of understanding and applying trading strategies for success.
Personal experience with a market wizard's alert service, highlighting the limitations and the need for personal skill development.
Explanation of how market movements can be influenced by collective actions of service subscribers, using the example of WMS stock.
Emphasis on the importance of active learning and teaching as a method for enhancing one's own understanding and skills.
The presenter's approach to sharing knowledge and the philosophy of 'win-win' in education and trading.
Insight into the presenter's background, motivation, and learning habits, including the use of books and online resources.
Discussion on the effectiveness of different learning methods, with a focus on active learning and practical application.
Analysis of the stock performances for the week, highlighting the best and worst-performing sectors.
Review of specific stocks and their trading setups, including JPM, KBE, and CRM, with explanations of the presenter's trading decisions.
Commentary on the stock performance of Tesla and PayPal, and the presenter's rationale for their current positions.
Explanation of the presenter's trading strategy for SQ and AMN, including position resizing and the use of Chandelier exit.
Discussion on the importance of adapting trading strategies to one's own personality and circumstances for long-term success.
Review of the presenter's watchlist, including stocks like NOW, XBI, Palantir, and TDOC, with insights into their current market conditions.
Analysis of the presenter's recent trades with SNAP, ENTG, HZO, and MAT, explaining the reasons for their entry and exit strategies.
Conclusion with a summary of the key points and a reminder of the educational intent of the content.
Transcripts
大家好,我是 Chart-reader CUP
又到本星期個別股票評論和重點 watchlist 的時間
今次也會說一下學習交易的觀點
大家要留意,影片內容
是純粹經驗分享和教學用途,並非投資建議
大家要小心求證,衡量風險,方可投資
近期很多新朋友 join
所以這樣東西又要再解釋一次
這個就是,個別股票評論和焦點 watchlist
我是不會好像好多付費service 那樣
講明買入點、同止損位
我即時 Discord 講我買了甚麼、賣了甚麼
我只有一個目的
是做一個即時而有人見證的記錄
確保我談論的交易、相關戰績和實際操作是真確
這樣東西是只在券商帳戶中
截取一張 portfolio equity curve 圖不能取代的
而我不是提供一個買入賣出提示服務
當然,我真的做即巿買賣提示服務的話
我還可以收貴一點的subscription fees
但收費、錢之類的東西不是重點
那個重點是
這樣即時 buy now、sell now 的服務
本質上,由內在層面到實際執行
除了提供服務那個人外
其他買服務的人都注定失敗
我趁著這個機會,作為一個教學
解釋詳細一些給大家聽
這個 MPA 服務,很多人都知道
有 buy now、sell now 的 alert 服務
我 2018年 join 過一年
沒記錯的話當時大約三萬多港元
其實我只是用了三、四個後月已無再 log in
MM 確實是一個大師
market wizard 的實力,大家包括我都不會質疑
實戰的戰績永遠是最好的證明
拿過幾次奬都不可能做假
我很喜歡見世界德州撲克比賽
真正實力強勁的牌王
是可以拿幾次冠軍
就是不拿冠軍都會有重覆出現在 final table 的情況
主要的重點是,方法你學了
大家都知道那些東西
但是整套方法可不可以覆製、如何執行、
自己合不合用、臨場甚樣決斷、自己純熟的程度
心理狀態、經驗等等
要用各樣指定的方法和經過一段時間實習才可以學習到
如果沒有上述所說一系列的東西
只是跟買入賣出指示,是絕對不能成功的
舉個實例
幾日前WMS
這個 buy now 指令,買入後好快就 squat
為何如此呢?
呢個情況極之常見
拿一張十五分鐘圖看看,大家就會明白
MM 一出 buy now 指示
整個 MPA 大大小小倉位的會員一起買入
成交量突然高了,股價自我實現
自己一群人推高了股價
但他們買完後,就無以為繼
之後股價便下跌了
甚至成為一些專 trade 假突破的人的目標
這方面的東西
我之前專題講 false breakout/ uptrust 的影片提過
到他們輸錢 stop out 那日
大家止損位也在同一個位置
結果 stop out 的時候
全部人的 market order 一起湧出來
再自我實現推低數個 % 才離場
全部一起離場後,沽壓突然沒有了
stop 完後再反彈
這張十五分鐘圖你們就看到發生了甚麼事情
這種注定失敗的服務
如果我自己提供的話,我是會賺到錢
但我就不想做
我的口頭禪是,why not both
要贏就一齊贏
win win 才是 constructive 和恒久
在這個領域,最多人質疑的是
贏錢的話自己收埋 (藏起來) 就可以
那用去教人?
我十幾年前開始寫 blog 到現在做 channel
其中主要的材料就是
我無論公開與否,那些資料
我無論如何自己做功課時都要搜習
我是那種停不下來,不停要學東西
甚麼都想做到最好的人
這些事情,就算我沒有 channel
不寫文我也是要做的
我只是將這些東西的部份拿出來
幫到大家,又幫到我自己
因為我要 present 給大家
我先要理順自己的思路
要系統化,又要自己真的完全明白
才可以講出來
這一個部份
就是我之後講的 active learning 最重要的那個部份
教人其實是自己學習最好的方法
我收費不貴
你可以學到新知識,賺多了錢
我又學到新的東西,我自己額外又多了收入
大家都贏那就最好
我亦都好像一拳超人那樣
很多東西都是為興趣而做
但是我整天坐在電腦面前做片,做少了家務
老婆問起,家用沒有給多了的話
我是很難交待的
希望大家都明白
每做多一樣東西都消秏時間和成本
但說到底
我 spoon feed,整個系統賣給你
其實就這樣的話,你自己看書都明白
那個難處是,你要消化,融合自己的性格和實際狀況
建立到自己的 routine 、經驗、方法和風格
自己可以做到決斷
那樣才可以長勝、穩定贏利
甚至將交易成為自己的事業
速食,例如麥當勞
很多人喜歡吃
somehow 是好食,但有沒有營養?
日日都吃這些的話會怎樣?
我自己 2008年輸鑊甘 (輸很大) 之後
抱著好勝心,在那裏跌低便在那裏站起來
要拿回我損失的東西的心態
我每日 lunch time
都會去當年時代廣場頂樓那間 page one
去看那裏的投資書
我當年做家庭醫生的 lunch time 是頗長的
那我日日就去那裏看
明不明白,記不記得就不清楚了
幾個月後,整個書架幾乎也看完了
整天也有人問我
有無好的 booklist、推薦書等等
首先,我在有奬問答遊戲送的那些書
是少是我屋企書架有的書
但是,過了N年,尤其近幾年
發現 Google 大神
互聯網的功能真的是強大,甚麼也查得到
我自己近年醫學書籍都少買
網上 subscription、google、電子 journal
甚麼都查到,寫論文都可以足不出戶
問題為本,調查指定問題的學習方式
比拿著一本書,由 chapter one 看起,有效十倍
當然,前提是要有魄力和興趣
這個 learning pyramid
我做 Patreon 和 discord 簡介時都講過
聽書、睇書、睇片
你可以學到、保留到的東西多數是接收數量的兩成以下
我示範給你看
做一個頻道出來,大家一班人可以討論
你自己做 trading plan 有實踐
甚至好似 hammer 或者其他師兄師姐那樣
可以回答到別人的問題
那就是最好的學習
可以在記著所有東西後,成為自己的一部份,進步最快
希望大家明白,這個頻道整個理念就是這樣
好啦,說回正題
個別的股票
這個表是我談論過而自己持有之中的股票
這裏顯示了它們這個星期的表現
SQ、AMN 呢鋪係肥仔 (今次是大賺了)
這幾隻是新加的倉位,之後會談及
各行業的表現
呢個星期係金融股最好,接著是公用股
這個是 routine list,多數都不錯或平穩
FCX 銅礦股最差
夢想型股票,即是投機型增長股
之前新加的 MELI,業績後大爆升
還有朋友偷入的 SE,表現都非常搶眼
COIN 是我這個星期新增的
動力班的股票,都是好壞參半
先講常規名單
JPM 我週五買入了
setup 是這個 VCP low cheat
突破短期下降軌買入
這個位它是有少少插穿支持位
所以是有 wyckoff spring 的性質
這個位置是接近 area of value
20、50天線和 30週線、短期降軌匯聚的地方
我用七月的低位減 0.5 ATR 做止損
KBE 是銀行股 ETF
隨星期五十年債息反彈
做了一個短期區間突破
重回所有移動平均線
即是整個行業都似乎走勢有轉好跡象
不只是個別股票的現象
高盛是更加強,突破創新高
但是它遠離 area of value
是我不選它的原因
這隻是 CRM,我持有中
現在是一個 classic VCP、CUP with handle、
buildup under resistance 的 setup
TSLA 公布業績後走勢好轉
再加上拜登說會支持電動車
但開會時約了GM、福特、佳士拿
都沒有約 Elon Musk
夢想型股票比較多選擇,Tesla 不是首選
PYPL gap down 後還未 recover,先觀察
LOW,近期走勢不太好
繼續持有、暫時先觀察
波音七月以來做了兩個 reversal
藍色框住的地方
我做了第二個的 reversal
止損位用七月最低位
再加少少緩衝來做止損
JNJ 的 resistance 在紅色橫線那裏
業績後突破了
Disruptive innovation
SQ 業績後爆上,在288元我沽了一半
因為整個倉位急升後變得很大
做了一個 Position Resizing
目前股價在阻力位那裏
上週四、五,十年債息上升
這堆夢想型的增長股有人拋售
NOW 出業績後這下突破有 squat
突破後其實 squat 比成功常見
之前談 breakout 的教學說了很多
現在它慢慢升上去
可能會做一個 buildup 才再上,繼續持有
XBI 重回 20天線,繼續持有
Palantir 繼續橫行,快到業績
看多幾天才決定怎辦
TDOC 的 reversal 暫時還能保持,先暫時持有
COIN在阻力那裏,又就到業績、密切留意
GBTC 問題都是那個折讓還是頗大
未知原因,只看 price action的話其實OK
ROKU 業績後大 gap down 穿 50天線
有反彈但未力度不夠
重上 50天線才會再考慮
VUZI 就快公布業績
目前的走勢是 bearish
TWLO 都是在出業績後裂口下跌了
但還可以保持到在 50天/30週線附近
留意有無 setup 發展,無 setup 的話不宜介入
SE 剛突破,仍然有 setup
MELI 我兩個星期前加入 list 中
業績後大爆升,有拉回可以考慮
動力型的股票
選 TWTR 還是 SNAP
我用行動告訴大家選了 SNAP
TWTR業績好但都是漲得不多
亦無超買的情況
即是巿場的 buying commitment 較弱
SNAP 就不同,一下就 gap up 24%
是一個很超買的情況,今年來最強
反映巿場 buying commitment 強,拉回是正常
急升後有拉回是正常的
但到 20天線附近,很快又有 reversal
是好的 price action,所以我在這裏介入了
ENTG,我在這裏偷入了
HZO 是做了這個 200天線的 reversal
回升上去所有移動平均線上
RS line 亦上升中
現在正在窄幅橫行
我在箭咀那裏介入了
MAT要留意有沒有這種 buildup
這隻我是沒有介入的
AMN 我在高位賣了一半
理由和 SQ 一樣,升了很多之後倉位太大
這隻和 SQ 一樣是做unlimited target
來到這裏,我會用 Chandelier exit 推高止損位
之後是焦點 watchlist 的環節
今天先說到這裏
希望影片幫到大家
下次再見,bye bye
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