Buy This Market Breakout - It's Real

Summary

In this weekly trading video, the host reviews previous stock picks, including Netflix and SMCI, and discusses their current status. Netflix is still favored despite being dormant, with a potential breakout expected. SMCI is suggested to be exited due to upcoming Nvidia earnings, which could impact the market. The host outlines a systematic trading approach, evaluates the market, and sets expectations for the upcoming weeks, focusing on light trading volume and a gradual market rise. Key economic releases and FOMC minutes are highlighted as events to watch. The video concludes with a bullish long pick for the week, CRWD, and advice on managing trades based on market movements and closes.

Takeaways

• 📈 The speaker begins by reviewing past stock picks, emphasizing the importance of tracking their performance.
• 🎥 Netflix is highlighted as a stock pick from the previous week, with the speaker discussing its current chart patterns and potential for a breakout.
• 📊 The speaker provides a detailed analysis of Netflix's technical indicators, including its position relative to moving averages and EMA, suggesting a favorable setup for a bullish move.
• 🚀 The potential for Netflix to challenge and break through its all-time high is mentioned, with a strategy for entering and adding to positions based on breakout confirmation.
• 📉 SMCI is discussed as a stock that breached a downward trend line but has not performed well since, with a recommendation to exit the position due to upcoming Nvidia earnings that may impact the stock.
• 💡 Nvidia's earnings are highlighted as a significant market event that could influence chip makers like SMCI, emphasizing the importance of not holding positions over earnings announcements.
• 📅 The speaker outlines a light economic calendar for the upcoming week, noting the potential impact of FOMC minutes and the Memorial Day holiday on trading volumes and market action.
• 📉 Concerns about economic indicators such as GDP and ISM Services are raised, suggesting that the market may be watching for signs of economic softness and potential Fed policy changes.
• 📊 A technical analysis of the S&P 500 is provided, discussing the market's bounce from the 100-day moving average and the importance of preserving the gains from a recent breakout.
• 📈 The speaker anticipates a continuation of the upward trend in the market, with a focus on light trading volumes and the potential for a gradual rise in stock prices.
• 📝 The video concludes with a selection of potential bullish trades, including a detailed analysis of CRWD, which is presented as a strong candidate for a long position based on its recent performance and technical indicators.

Q & A

What is the main focus of the weekly trading video?

The main focus of the weekly trading video is to review previous stock picks, discuss a systematic trading approach, evaluate the market, and identify new trades.

How does the speaker describe Netflix's current stock performance?

The speaker describes Netflix's stock as compressing with horizontal support just below the 50-day moving average EMA, above the 100-day moving average, and in striking distance of the all-time high.

What trading strategy is suggested for Netflix?

The suggested strategy for Netflix is to use a GTC (Good 'Til Cancelled) order to enter a position on a breakout, and then add to the position once the breakout is confirmed to hold.

What is the speaker's opinion on SMCI after the live event?

The speaker still likes SMCI but suggests exiting the position due to upcoming earnings from Nvidia, which could impact the price action of similar companies like SMCI.

Why is it important to watch Nvidia's earnings?

Nvidia's earnings are important because it is a mega-cap tech stock with widespread interest, especially in the artificial intelligence sector, and its earnings can significantly impact the market.

What economic releases are expected in the upcoming week according to the video?

The upcoming week is expected to have light economic news, with durable goods orders being the main release, and FOMC minutes coming out on Wednesday.

How does the speaker describe the market's reaction to the FOMC statement?

The speaker describes the market's reaction as having reduced quantitative tightening, which is a form of easing, and suggests that the Fed seems to be more dovish.

What is the speaker's outlook for the market in the coming weeks?

The speaker expects lighter trading action after the FOMC minutes are released and Nvidia earnings are announced. The market is anticipated to float higher on light volume before and after the Memorial Day holiday.

What technical indicators does the speaker use to analyze the market's direction?

The speaker uses the 50-day moving average EMA, the 100-day moving average, and the preservation of a long green candle as technical indicators to analyze the market's direction.

What is the speaker's advice on managing long positions in the market?

The speaker advises being long as the market continues to float higher on light volume, and to take gains on longer-term swing positions when the market starts to lose momentum or shows signs of resistance.

What stock does the speaker identify as a potential long pick for the week?

The speaker identifies CRWD (CrowdStrike Holdings) as a potential long pick for the week due to its relative strength and continued upward movement.