2024 Predictions for Networking - Cisco - The Economy

Summary

このビデオでは、Jeremiah Wolfが2024年のネットワーキング業界の現状と今後数年間の予想について語ります。彼はCisco、HP、Palo Alto、Arista、Juniperなどの主要企業の収益と成長を分析し、特にCiscoが業界でどのように優位に立っているか、そしてその戦略が将来どのように展開するかを詳細に述べています。また、彼はCiscoがソリューションとサービスに焦点を移し、ハードウェアの販売からマネージドソリューションへと事業を転換している過程について考察します。最後に、2024年の経済全般についての彼の見解と、テクノロジー大手企業が直面する可能性のある課題についても触れています。

Takeaways

• 🌐 2024年のネットワーキング業界は、Ciscoが依然として最大のプレイヤーであり、市場シェアと利益の面で他の企業を上回っている。
• 💼 Ciscoは市場シェアよりも利益率を重視し、高利益を追求している戦略を採用している。
• 📈 小規模な企業は高い成長率を示しているが、その市場規模はCiscoに比べて依然として小さい。
• 🔍 Ciscoの戦略は、単にハードウェアを売るのではなく、マネージドソリューションとしての「サービスとしてのネットワーク」に移行しようとしている。
• 📊 Ciscoの成長は、大企業や政府などの大規模顧客からの収益を増やすことに焦点を当てている。
• 🚀 小中規模のビジネスに対しては、Ciscoは市場を他の競合他社に譲る可能性がある。
• 🔐 セキュリティ分野では、Ciscoは完全なソリューションパッケージを提供することで市場に再び影響を与えようとしている。
• 📉 経済全体に関しては、2024年の米国経済は、インフレ減少と賃金の大幅な上昇により、リセッションを回避していると見られている。
• 🤔 しかし、大規模な企業の成長の限界や、中国の経済状況など、リセッションを引き起こす可能性のある要因が存在する。
• 🌟 Ciscoや他の大手テクノロジー企業が市場の成長限界に直面する中、株価の大幅な評価下落が予測される。

Q & A

2024年のネットワーキング業界の現状はどうか？

2024年のネットワーキング業界は成長を続けており、特にCiscoが市場の大部分を占めているが、Palo AltoやAristaなどの新興企業も高い成長率を記録している。

Ciscoの戦略とは何か？

Ciscoは、単にハードウェアを販売するのではなく、ソリューションや管理されたサービスを提供する方向に移行しようとしている。

Ciscoの市場シェアはどれほど大きいか？

Ciscoは市場の52%を占め、他のすべての競合を合わせたよりも大きい。

Ciscoの利益率はどのような状況か？

Ciscoは全収益の52.4%を占めるが、利益では約59%を占めており、効率的に利益を上げている。

Cisco以外で成長している企業は？

Palo AltoとAristaは、それぞれ年間成長率が25～30%、30～57%と非常に高い成長を遂げている。

Ciscoのビジネスモデルの将来的な変化は？

Ciscoは、顧客に対して完全なターンキーサービスを提供する方向に移行し、ネットワークをサービスとして提供するモデルを目指している。

2024年の経済予測はどうか？

2024年初頭の時点では米国経済はリセッションを避け、軟着陸を果たし、賃金の成長が見られるなど、比較的良好な状態にある。

市場でのCiscoのポジショニングは？

Ciscoは、中小企業よりも政府や大企業など、高いマージンを求める大規模顧客に焦点を当てる方向にシフトしている。

ネットワーキング業界の将来のトレンドは？

ネットワーキング業界は、ハードウェアの販売からソリューションやサービスの提供へと移行し、サブスクリプションベースのビジネスモデルへと進化していくと予想される。

Ciscoのセキュリティオファリングの将来は？

Ciscoはセキュリティセクターでの立場を再確立するために、完全なパッケージとしてのセキュリティソリューションを提供することを目指している。

Outlines

00:00

🌐 2024年のネットワーキング業界の現状とシスコの戦略

2024年のネットワーキング業界と経済の現状、及びシスコの戦略についての分析を行う。シスコが業界の大手であること、市場シェアが52%を占めていること、そして利益率が59%に達していることを示すデータを基に、シスコに対する一般の誤解（例えば、シスコが時代遅れであるという意見）を否定する。また、シスコの成長率が他の大企業と比較しても高いこと、新興企業（パロアルトやアリスタなど）の成長率が高いが市場全体に対する影響はまだ小さいことを説明する。

05:03

📈 小規模企業と比較したシスコの成長戦略

シスコの市場での地位を維持し、成長を続ける戦略について解説する。新興企業の成長が顕著であるが、シスコが依然として業界をリードしていること、及び小規模企業と比較した場合のシスコの戦略の有効性について論じる。シスコの成長が続く一方で、市場シェアの増加が難しい現状と、利益を最大化するための戦略に重点を置いていることを強調する。

10:05

🔄 シスコのビジネスモデルの転換

シスコがハードウェアの販売からソリューションとマネージドサービスの提供へとビジネスモデルを転換していく戦略に焦点を当てる。5年以内に顧客が月額料金でネットワークを構築・維持・管理する完全なターンキーサービスをシスコが提供する方向に進むと予測する。この変化が業界に及ぼす影響、特にシスコが中小企業ではなく大企業や政府といった大規模顧客にサービスを提供することによる職種の変化について議論する。

15:09

📉 2024年の経済見通しと大企業の課題

2024年の経済の状況と、特に大企業が直面している成長の限界について考察する。米国が景気後退を回避した現状と、物価上昇の影響による一般の経済感情に触れる。また、大企業（例えば、フェイスブックやアップル）が市場の飽和により成長の限界に達し、その結果として株価の大幅な評価下落が予想される問題について議論する。

20:09

🌍 中国経済の不安定性とその国際的影響

中国経済の不安定性と、それが世界経済、特に米国に与える影響について分析する。中国の銀行危機や建設業の問題、軍事的脆弱性が明らかになったこと、及びこれらの問題が中国の世界的地位に与える影響について詳述する。さらに、米国が製造業の再構築を進める一方で、中国からの撤退が長期間にわたる過程であることと、その間の経済的なバランスについて考察する。

25:10

🔮 2024年とその先の経済と業界の未来予測

2024年の経済及びネットワーキング業界の展望と、将来にわたる予測をまとめる。市場での成長の限界に達した大企業の影響、中国経済の不確実性が世界経済に及ぼす可能性がある影響、及びこれらが経済全体、特にテクノロジー業界に与える影響について詳細に説明する。最終的に、これらの要因がどのように経済の見通しに影響を与えるかについての見解を提供する。

Keywords

💡ネットワーキング業界

ネットワーキング業界は、コンピュータネットワーク技術の開発、販売、サポートに関わる企業や技術者の集まりを指します。このビデオでは、2024年現在のネットワーキング業界の状況と、今後数年間での業界の予測について議論されています。Cisco、HP、Palo Altoなどの主要企業の収益と成長率が分析され、業界の健全性と方向性を示す指標として用いられています。

💡Ciscoの戦略

Ciscoの戦略については、同社がどのように市場での地位を維持し、収益性を高めようとしているかに焦点を当てています。ビデオでは、Ciscoがハードウェア販売からソリューションやマネージドサービスの提供へと事業モデルをシフトしていることが説明されています。これは、顧客が単に製品を購入するのではなく、Ciscoによるネットワークの構築、維持、管理を月額料金で購入することを意味しています。

💡市場シェア

市場シェアとは、特定の市場における企業の売上高が市場全体の売上高に占める割合を指します。ビデオでは、Ciscoがネットワーキング業界で最大の市場シェアを持っているが、そのシェアが減少している可能性があるにもかかわらず、収益性は依然として高いと指摘されています。これは、Ciscoが効率的な収益化戦略を実施していることを示しています。

💡成長率

成長率は、特定の期間における企業の収益または利益の増加率を指します。ビデオでは、Ciscoや他のネットワーキング企業の成長率が議論され、それらが業界内でどのように位置づけられているかを分析しています。特に、新興企業が高い成長率を示しているものの、その市場シェアは依然として小さいことが強調されています。

💡利益率

利益率は、売上高に対する利益の割合を示す指標です。ビデオでは、Ciscoが業界で最も高い利益率を持っていることが明らかにされ、これが同社の戦略と市場での地位を維持する上での重要な要素であることが示されています。

💡サブスクリプションモデル

サブスクリプションモデルは、顧客が製品やサービスを定期的に利用するために定期的な支払いをするビジネスモデルです。ビデオでは、Ciscoが製品販売からサブスクリプションモデルへの移行を目指していることが説明されており、これにより顧客はネットワーキングのニーズに対して月額料金を支払うことになります。

💡経済予測

経済予測とは、将来の経済条件やトレンドを予測する過程です。ビデオでは、2024年の経済状況について議論され、特に米国が予想されていた不況を回避し、経済が安定しているものの、特定のセクターや企業における調整が今後の経済に影響を与える可能性があると指摘されています。

💡市場飽和

市場飽和は、特定の市場または産業が既存の顧客のニーズを満たすだけの製品やサービスを提供している状態を指します。ビデオでは、一部の大手企業が市場飽和に達しており、これが成長の鈍化につながっている可能性があると説明されています。

💡収益性の最大化

収益性の最大化とは、企業が利益を最大限に高めるために採用する戦略や手法を指します。ビデオでは、Ciscoが市場シェアの拡大ではなく、既存の市場シェアからより多くの収益を得る方法を模索していることが議論されています。

Highlights

Jeremiah Wolf discusses the current state of the networking industry in 2024, including expectations for the future and Cisco's strategy.

Analysis of revenue and market share among major networking companies, revealing Cisco's dominant position despite perceptions of decline.

Examination of growth rates for Cisco and its competitors, highlighting the significant achievement of Cisco's growth in the context of its size.

Insight into the rapid growth of smaller companies like Palo Alto and Arista, and the perspective on their market impact compared to Cisco.

Discussion on the purpose of a business, emphasizing profit over product or service type, with Cisco as a key example.

Cisco's strategic shift from selling hardware to offering managed solutions and services, aiming for a subscription-based business model.

Predictions on the evolution of Cisco's business model towards providing complete network solutions as a service, moving away from selling individual hardware components.

The impact of Cisco's strategy on the job market, suggesting a shift towards in-house Cisco roles and outsourced network management for enterprises.

Cisco's aim to position itself as a premium solution provider, potentially sidelining smaller businesses in favor of large enterprises and government contracts.

The expectation that Cisco will focus on high-margin, large-scale clients, possibly at the expense of market share but with increased profitability.

Cisco's anticipated dominance in the security sector, offering comprehensive security solutions as part of its turnkey network services.

Overview of the economic outlook for 2024, touching on inflation, wage growth, and public perception of the economy.

Speculation on potential economic corrections and their impacts, including the role of major tech companies reaching market saturation.

Concerns about China's economic stability and its implications for global markets, with a focus on manufacturing dependency.

Insight into the reindustrialization efforts in the United States, aiming for a future less dependent on foreign manufacturing.

Closing thoughts on the unpredictable nature of economic trends and their potential effects on the networking industry and global economy.

Transcripts

hello and welcome back to my basement

This is Jeremiah wolf uh in this video

today I want to talk about uh the state

of the networking industry how things

are looking right now in

2024 what do I expect for 2024 and what

do I expect to happen over the next few

years both in the industry and uh to a

lesser extent in the economy um and I

want to talk about Cisco's strategy as I

see it and how I see that playing out um

so we're going to look at some of the

numbers here and uh and we'll kind of go

from there um this is actually like the

fourth time I've recorded this video

because I keep making mistakes and I

hate editing it's much faster for me

just to re-record than to edit so let's

try to get it right this time uh let's

get into it first off let's take a look

at the

um the numbers

here okay so here we have a revenue for

some of the major players Cisco HP Palo

Al to Arista Juniper fored

that as you can see Cisco is uh by far

the

biggest 52% Cisco makes up more than

everyone else

combined okay and I I want you to keep

this in mind because if you get on any

you know Reddit uh YouTube whatever and

you listen to the people like me the

talking heads or the the people on The

subreddits Who are bitching about Cisco

you start to get the impression that

Cisco is dying they're a dinosaur

they're dead they can't compete no one

buy Cisco anymore what a piece of

garbage everyone hates Cisco you know

every day I get on uh Reddit and there's

another story about we're our company

you know we have 10,000 sites and we're

ripping all of our Cisco out and we're

only

buying XYZ Whatever It Is Well the

numbers don't prove that out uh so here

we go Cisco still the biggest here I

just combined Juniper and HP to give you

a clear view of what's going to where

where things are going to look pretty

soon and here's

profit uh Cisco is killing it with

profit they

are 52.4% of all

revenue but almost

59% of all profit they're doing

something right and now there's more to

it so let's get into that because it's

not all just revenue and profit we also

need to talk

about what do I want here growth so

let's look at Cisco

Cisco uh 7 8% six little rough patch

there 7 13 14 15 something around there

percent so these are not phenomenal

numbers these are not phenomenal numbers

but for a company that is as old and as

big as Cisco these are actually really

good numbers so don't be

confused Cisco is a massive company

bigger than everyone else combined for

them to grow 16% year onye is freaking

amazing they're doing pretty well HP not

doing so

well not doing so well

Juniper yeah doing pretty good pretty

good for a company that's as old and as

well established as Juniper but again

they're much much smaller than Cisco so

their numbers are are smaller less

impressive when you think about it this

is growth right so they're growing but

they're they're a fraction of the size

of Cisco so dollar to dollar Cisco is

blowing them out of the

water but they are

growing now they're part of HP and looks

like HP could use every little bit of

help they can get uh let's look at some

of the

upstarts if you will Palo Alta look at

these numbers 22% year-over-year

30% they're hitting 25 30% every quarter

year-over-year growth they're killing it

they're killing it until you look at uh

Arista 30% 30 48 57 54% 54 % holy crap

Arista is growing but again

again let's come back here Arista is

only 5% of the

industry so they're growing but for them

to grow 50% is a drop in the bucket of

what these guys are doing they're

growing but it's not like they're uh

destroying Cisco they're doing very well

and that's what you expect from much

smaller companies they're performing

like a very successful much smaller

company so I'm not trying to take away

anything from their growth they're doing

phenomenal but don't confuse these big

numbers to as if this means that they're

destroying Cisco they're not maybe one

day this will translate into that but

they got a long way to go and as they

mature as their market share grows this

will inevitably it has to the simple

math demands it slow down this will slow

down so it's good for now again Palo ala

doing very well Arista doing amazing

foret doing very very

well 30% year-over-year

um yeah they're doing great they're

doing great so I'm not trying to take

anything away from these guys they are

doing really well uh but there are they

are

much much much smaller so it's easier

for them to hit those big growth numbers

okay

now all right now that we've talked

about that that just gives you a rough

idea why do I want to why did I want to

show you that I want you to get an idea

about what the industry looks like

because when you if you go by what you

hear it makes it sound like the picture

is very different um now again to be

fair when I'm comparing four and P out

to to Cisco that's not a one toone

comparison Cisco does

everything and the numbers reflect

everything Palo AO and forunate do

mostly security and um so if you compare

just Cisco security to just paloo or

just for it's going to be a different

picture uh those two companies are very

likely eating Cisco's lunch for now

we'll see we'll see how it goes okay so

now let's talk about strategy and uh the

one thing that is important important to

understand this is important to

understand I'm trying to make this

video quick I'm trying to talk quick

let's get it out

there excuse me um it's important to

understand what is the purpose of a

business what is the purpose of Cisco or

Palo Alto or McDonald's or the dry

cleaner down the street what is the

purpose of that business is it to do

networking is it to dry clean clothes or

sell hamburgers

no the purpose of any

business is to make profit period and

and full

stop any business exists solely to make

profit it reminds me of there's this uh

interesting thought experiment in

biology when you think about

it who's the true life form is it the an

plants and animals or is it DNA you know

because why why do we exist we exist for

the sole purpose of getting of

replicating our

DNA so you know like what who's really

in charge who's really

winning is it the DNA is it the human is

it the whatever plant animal and it's

the same thing with business like it

doesn't

matter all that matters is profit and if

you look at the numbers Cisco is making

a lot of profit so while they are doing

things that a lot of people do not like

we're talking about Cisco strategy now

they're doing things a lot of people do

not

like they're making

money so they're not going to

change at this point in their life

cycle Cisco

cannot keep growing its way to added

profitability they can't can't do it

they have reached the end of that period

within the life of a company they're

simply too big they they hit that wall a

while ago the only way that they

continue to

grow which companies have to grow in

order to be you know maintain

profitability they don't have to but

investors tend to want to see growth um

they have to find ways to squeeze more

profit from the the from the their the

the market share that they have they

can't really grow the market share so

they have to get more money from what

they currently have and that is the

strategy we see taking place with Cisco

right now so what is Cisco doing how do

it impact you what should we

expect in

2024 I'm not expecting a whole lot of

big

changes excuse me um

because these things take time but what

Cisco is doing in my

estimation Cisco is trying to position

themselves

away from selling boxes toward selling

Solutions managed Solutions I think that

in five years maybe it'll take a little

bit longer but you're not going to Speck

out we need these switches we need these

access points we need these controllers

we need these licenses you're going to

go to Cisco and

say here's our needs here's our user

base what's my monthly

fee and Cisco is going to say okay for

uh $10,000 a month or $20 million a

month whatever it is we are going to

build your network maintain your network

manage your network it is a complete

TurnKey

service that is in my estimation where

Cisco is going somewhere closer to that

anyway maybe that's maybe that's not

necessarily possible at the end of the

day a complete solution like that but

that's where they want to go and they're

going to move in that direction as much

as they possibly

can so what does that mean for you well

it means that ultimately um there's

going to be Cisco jobs but they're going

to a lot of those jobs are going to be

for Cisco I think Cisco is going to

start insourcing talent and individual

companies uh particularly Enterprises

are going to start outs you they're

going to Outsource to Cisco

um it is my

belief

that how do how do we say this

I kind of lost my train of

thought um that Cisco is it's kind of

like Cisco wants to be

apple in a broad

sense when you go and you buy a laptop

right

um if you're on a

budget Apple doesn't want you as a

customer they couldn't care less go buy

something else if you have money to burn

please come in to join the Apple family

we want to sell you overpriced goods and

services that work really well they work

really well but they're you know feature

to feature pretty pretty overpriced and

I think that's where Cisco is going not

necessarily that they're looking to

overprice their things but they're

looking to become a

premium

solution um if it is it's my estimation

that within 5 years maybe 10 years um

we're going to see that Cisco just

doesn't even Market themselves to the

small and medium Enterprise if you have

less than say I don't know uh 50,000

seats or 100,000 seats Cisco might not

even want your

business that's the that's the that's

the the the hassle business and you'll

see this if you've ever done any kind of

service what you'll find is that

a small number of your

customers eat up all your support time

all your time and energy and they also

tend to be the same customers that don't

provide the majority of your uh profit

or revenue for that matter and that's

what and so Cisco is trying to avoid

that they're trying to move into a

position where they are focuses focusing

on high

margin um big customers like governments

and huge Enterprises where they can

charge a premium to deliver a fully

functioning managed service and where we

see this the most right

now is was Cisco security offering Cisco

security offering right now is a mess

but it's starting to congeal and maybe

in 2024 more likely in

2025 I think we're going to see Cisco

make a push to reassert themselves in

the security uh sector of

networking not by having the best

firewall or the best whatever they're

going to assert themselves by being a

complete solution you buy Cisco and you

get this whole package all desktop

security network security Edge security

Internet Security all of it one package

that you buy that is marketed toward big

Enterprises and governments that sort of

thing I think that's where Cisco is

going I think in 5 10 years uh Cisco is

going to let their small business

medium-sized business switches routers

that's all just going to disappear

that's all going to

disappear it's just a hassle why deal

with it they'll let

HP uh pick up that that stuff they'll

let the other providers deal with that

stuff so that's what I think that's

where I think things are going um Cisco

is is trying to move away from selling

Hardware into becoming a uh a turnkey

solution where you pay a subscription

that's what they want everyone wants a

subscription but that's what they want

right now they want to transition into

your network as a

service and um they're willing they have

been willing to give up some Market

market share to do that because they can

give up market share but actually

increase

profitability and that's really what

matters they don't necessarily care

about market share what they care about

is profit share and um profitability

share of the overall profits to be had

that's what they care about and looking

at the numbers

again if we look at profit they're they

seem to be making some good choices and

they're probably going to keep moving in

that direction maximizing profit even at

the cost of market share let

fortunet have all the small and medium

bus let them have

it Cisco is going to sell to governments

Cisco is going to sell to massive

corporations who just want a

solution so that's what I see happening

in networking I really don't know what

the other companies are going to go

obviously any scraps that Cisco will let

them have they'll have so if Cisco you

know if Cisco is giving up the small

medium-size market then other people are

going to take it

over that's you know that's just how it

works

now okay so that's a little bit about

the overall health of the industry a

little bit about how I see Cisco's

strategy in the future now if you're

still tuned in let's talk just real

quick about what I see for the economy

in 2024 right now uh at the very

beginning of

2024 everyone is saying we did at least

in the United States we avoided a

recession we got the soft

Landing um inflation is down we have

seen the biggest wage growth in a couple

of

generations um it's really fascinating

if you when you pull people when you

pull people and say how is the economy

overwhelming the economy is

how are you doing oh I'm doing okay

yeah actually I'm doing pretty good I'm

doing just fine but how's the economy oh

it's garbage it's but and you yeah I'm

doing okay doing okay this this has been

proven out on multiple

polls overall people are despite all the

the

perceptions uh people are actually doing

better they really

are maybe maybe individuals are not but

overall people here in the United States

are doing better yet we still

overwhelmingly think the economy is in

the

gutter largely because of food food

prices actually is the biggest driver

for that but anyway um so that being

said we have avoided a

recession and right now everyone's

saying we're we're good 2024 is looking

to be a really good year I'm not sure

I'm not sure and the reason is I'm

expecting some big Corrections with some

big companies and I'm actually really

happy because I met I wanted to make

this video two weeks ago on the first

and then I was just busy and things

going on and I just couldn't get to it

and then um some stuff has

happened that uh I was I had already

predicted and I was like oh okay well

good I'm glad I'm glad I waited because

a couple of these things that I

predicted are already starting to happen

so what is going to impact the economy

why do I think there's actually a pretty

good chance we might have a recession

this year and the the overall reason is

because

unlike just about any other science uh

economics is fueled by emotion uh every

study shows that uh the state of the

economy has very little to do with what

people feel about the economy that

predicting recessions is actually

incredibly hard because so much of it

has to do with how people feel in the

moment um it's it's fascinating and

scary all at the same time and I think

people are going to start to the people

already feel like the economy is not

doing great even though objectively it

is it's doing really really good but

people feel like it's not and I think

those feelings are going to intensify

because of what we were actually talking

about a few minutes ago when I was

talking about Cisco being a mature

company Cisco cannot grow their market

share they cannot grow into additional

profitability they have to maximize

profit in their existing market share

they can't really grow anymore and there

are several massive companies that are

about to hit that milestone in their

life cycle this is something that almost

every successful company eventually hits

they get to the point where they simply

cannot continue to

grow they can still be profitable and

successful but they can't grow and when

that

happens the they tend to

lose massive uh chunks of their

valuation within the next year or so we

are going to see this happen with some

major companies uh Facebook they have

reached Market saturation they really

just cannot grow

anymore um the streaming services

they've peaked uh social media like

Facebook and some of the other ones have

peaked Apple has peaked in terms of

market share

all these companies are going to hit a

wall a ceiling and once they do once

they come back and say hey uh looks like

we can't really grow anymore suddenly

the stock market is going to be like

what you mean you're not some golden

child that doesn't have to adhere to all

economic principles you are actually

beholden to the laws of supply and

demand oh well why am I paying $300 a

share you're actually only worth about

$60 a share share and that's what's

going to happen we're going to see

massive devaluations for some of these

big specifically tech companies because

they have just grown too big they can't

grow anymore and once people investors

realize that they realize that the

stocks just aren't worth what they've

been holding them at and paying for them

and they're going to lose tons of value

uh one great

example just this week Tesla lost 91

billion doar in value and just over a

couple of days uh I think they're down

like that makes it like down like 20% or

some 10 15% something like that um now

they'll probably fluctuate you know like

this it's a process right because you

know they lose and then people like

value Hunters are like oh hey this is a

great value so they start buying they

push it back up so it's a it's a

bouncing you know it it takes a while

for it to smooth out but um so yeah

Tesla's almost certainly going to lose a

lot of value Tesla is so overvalued it's

it's

mindboggling they're worth like 10% or

something of what they what they're

selling at and it's going to happen it

might not be 2024 but it's inevitable

they will hit that ceiling and then the

price is going to drop even if they're

still doing great they could still be

selling cars and making tons of money so

keep in mind this is this is about

valuation not about actual revenues or

profits it's all about what people think

the company is worth so we're going to

see this with some major companies this

year uh some this year some next year it

might take a couple couple of three

years for this to happen so I don't know

exactly how that's going to play out if

it happens too quickly it'll almost

certainly cause a recession even though

even

though it there's no real impact on the

E economy now when it happens these

companies will almost certainly lay off

thousands and thousands of workers uh

but they've already been doing that

um so again it it looks much worse than

it actually is but it's enough to drive

an economy into recession so that's what

I think might happen this year um one of

the other drivers that is

really excuse me poised to screw up the

world and economics is China uh China is

in a in a bad place right now and you

can there's so much information out

there about that but first they uh

they've had this banking crisis um their

their economy is it's it's a house of

cards almost

literally um look up uh what's it called

uh tofu dregs construction uh if you're

interested

um fascinating mess and then just this

week it turns out that corruption which

we all knew China is corrupt but the

corruption is so bad to the point where

their

military is a paper tiger uh their

military uh Readiness and Effectiveness

has been so overstated so

overstated that the reality is uh

perhaps enough to seriously impact

China's standing in the world um right

now the US and a lot of Western nations

are trying to pull out of China but this

is a process that takes not even years

it takes potentially decades to build up

the manufacturing back here in the

United States like there's you know

under Biden if um if there's one thing

that he will be remembered for it is

this massive push for the

reindustrialization of the United States

it doesn't get a lot of press but um

it's actually it's a phenomenal thing

and we are rebuilding factories and

plants and and um building building you

know like my my Dad sorry I know I was

running late my dad you know he he

worked at General Motors and if you

drive by the General Motors plant he

worked at his whole life life it's this

uh you know this rusting Hulk of a

campus it's massive these giant Factory

buildings that have been there for for

two generations at this point and uh you

know it's all old equipment I mean it's

it's closed now I think somebody moved

in but anyway um but you know that takes

a lot of money to maintain and to uh to

um retrofit and fix it well we're

basically starting our steel mills are

all gone our factories are all gone

we're going to build them but now we're

going to build Next Generation factories

Next Generation plants um so we're

positioning ourselves to become an

industrial power again but that's going

to take 10 15 20 years meanwhile we need

China to hang on so we can keep getting

all of our stuff from them while we

position ourselves to just drop them and

that's just this weird interplay that

who knows how that's going to work out

it's never really happened uh uh except

for maybe during the Bronze Age collapse

if you if you're interested look up some

of the theories around the Bronze Age

collapse that's uh that could be the

closest analogy I can think of um so

yeah anyway um because of all that

craziness with China and whatever that

that also has the some really just

incalculable variables that may lead to

recession this year so uh good luck if

you've hung on this far that's my

predictions for 2024 and the next few

years uh I hope you got something out of

this take it easy we see you next time